Watch SE WI, NE IL, NW IN, E IA and Lake MichiganJune 17th, 2014 at 10:56 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Meso-scale Discussion from SPC at 2 AM: “TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE BECOME CONFINED ACROSS CNTRL/S WI TO S LK MI…ALONG/N OF AN ARCING WARM FRONT FROM NEAR RST TO MADISON TO KALAMAZOO. ALTHOUGH A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL BUOYANCYWILL RESIDE S OF THE FRONT…GREATER INHIBITION AND LACK OFAPPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEYOND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT SWD IN THE NEAR-TERM. FARTHER N…ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MOST PROMINENT IN INITIAL CELLULAR UPDRAFTS…GIVEN MODEST SPEED SHEAR EVIDENT AOA 3 KM AGL IN GRB VWP DATA. WITH TIME…MANY OF THESE CELLS SHOULD CONGLOMERATE…BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS MAY BE SUBDUED BY LACK OF ROBUST LLJ AND COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER MOST OF LOWER MI.
A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect until 5 am EDT for E. Iowa, S. Wisconsin, N. Illinois, NW Indiana and Lake Michigan. SPC says “A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER…THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH THE INITIAL STORMS…AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO OR MORE CLUSTERS.”
Thunderstorms are coming in off the lake as I write this at 1:55 am – the storms certainly contain heavy rain and frequent lightning and a few storms may contain gusty winds and hail.