Thursday

June 19th, 2014 at 3:32 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Local There will be more tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the plains today (see outlook from SPC on the left.  SW Lower Michigan is in the green General Thunderstorm Outlook.  I think most of our area stays dry today, with the best chance of a shower down toward Berrien Co. and south into Illinois and central Indiana.   Grand Rapids and Muskegon both set daily rainfall records on Wednesday.  Muskegon received 3.93″, and GR received 2.08″.  About 45,000 customers lost power in yesterday’s storms in Michigan, and over 125,000 in the U.S. with about 40% of those in Ohio.  There was a gust to 81 mph at Adrian MI, 77 mph at Aurora IL.  There 29 reported tornadoes in the U.S., though 15 were reported in one county in South Dakota and I bet many of those are duplicates.  Sisseton SD at 4.27″ of rain.  Andrews AFB near Washington D.C. had a gust to 78 mph.  Governor deploys 100 state National Guard soldiers and equipment to Wessington Springs, S.D. after tornado on Weds.  This is cool – here’s the storm viewed from the Willis (Sears) Tower in Chicago.  Look at the snow in Glacier Natl. Park.

From Anthony Sagliani at Accu-Weather:  “Mid-June model consensus points to weak (~+0.8C) El Niño peaking Nov/Dec.”   Remember I said that weak El Nino’s can bring cold or snowy winters to the Great Lakes.  We had a very cold winter in 1976-77.  Going into the winter of 1977-78 we had a weak El Nino – that was the winter of the Blizzard of ’78, followed by the coldest February and 5th coldest March ever in G.R.  If you see the media hype “El Nino!” remember that El Ninos can bring very different weather patterns, related to the location and strength of the warmer water along the Equator.  Hopefully, this El Nino can put a dent into the California drought.

The morning run of the NAM has a wet and cool day tomorrow (Fri.) with 0.85″ of rain for G.R., mainly in the morning and temperatures much of the day only in the mid 60s.   The GFS plot has a lower 0.22″ of rain for G.R. on Friday and the European model goes bonkers with rain…giving G.R. 1.02″ Friday and a total of 4.38″ in the next week with significant rain Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.   While we could see rain/showers, there is a the possibility of thunderstorms, though severe weather is unlikely.  Most of the weekend looks dry, though an isolated shower or t-shower could spring up (mainly afternoon).  There will be light mainly east or southeast winds and with a west lake-breeze developing, there could be enough surface air convergence to pop a few showers.  As I write this, I’m waiting for the rest of the model data coming in early-mid afternoon.

Rainfall last two weeks…you can see the 5-6″ around Norton Shores.  3.8″ of rain fell in Dubuque IA last night.  9 in. of snowfall in Alta, Utah Tues; their third highest one-day snowfall total in June ever.

 

51 Responses to “Thursday”

  1. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Nice day on tap for today. We don’t need any more rain. We can dry out for a day or two! It doesn’t feel as humid this am. Can the Tiger’s issues be fixed? Wow, what happened to them? The World Cup has been fun to watch! Spain eliminated, what a shock.

  2. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Bill,i don’t want to give out my location,but per my GPS i am 915 above sea level. I can see a long ways to my south. I can watch jets fly in to GR airport over the far south tree line. Anyways i was out front taking pics when the storm came in. The best i can tell the damage from NE of Ada to North of Lowell happened between 1:28pm and 1:34pm. I have pics of a v shape lowering of the clouds going through. Not a tornado,but maybe a down burst. I will try to get the pics emailed to you soon. Or maybe i’ll run into you Thurs scouting out the area.

  3. INDY says:

    Ahhhh nice cool weather we have going !! showers and storms stay to our south where the heat is!!! Could use some more rain out at thee YARDofBRICKS….INDYY!!

  4. Jeff (Richland) says:

    1.30″ at my house from the storms yesterday afternoon, so glad we finally got rain.

  5. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    Wow…over 10 inches of rain last night in Lee county, Illinois.

  6. HomeschoolMama(Vergennes Twp) says:

    I just want to echo Vincent. I posted to the blog yesterday but my comment we t to moderation. I live on a North-Sourh road in that area and we lost several mature trees. One on the house, one on our shed. Huge cherry fell in out meadow and took out some smaller oaks. One tree was snipped off in the middle and appeared gently laid on out roof & house. Another tree was uprooted at its base. Our driveway was blocked by neighbors trees falling. I also sent pictures to ReportIt. We don’t have power yet. I wish NWS could see our yard! It is amazing

  7. HomeschoolMama(Vergennes Twp) says:

    My husband watched the cherry fall, then the next tree hit the house, the we saw the tree fall on the shed, then we took cover in the basement because I was seriously concerned! We are going to tour our forest today and see what kind of damage occurred there. I am really curious what kind of wind speed could cause the tree falling a we had. I don’t think 60 MPH would do this but we need an expert out here to look.

  8. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Nice line of severe storms here yesterday. Sitting at +2.8 for June.

    It has been the warmest spring on record worldwide:

    “The seasonal anomaly of the global average surface temperature in Spring (March to May) 2014 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.28°C above the 1981-2010 average (+0.69°C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891.”

    http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/spr_wld.html

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Neat. I love it when records are broken.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Well I guess a record wasn’t broken, as it was warmer in 1891.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        No. I believe that’s when records began.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Ah, gotcha.

    3. Mike M. says:

      UAH has May at 0.33°C above 1981-2010 average…

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/06/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2014-0-33-deg-c/

      Almost 18 years since the modern high temp was set. You need a Super El Niño bad. And no volcanoes.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        According to NASA, the warm starting base means even a milder El Niño could make 2014 the new record year.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          And if it isn’t, they can “adjust” the numbers or just blame the fact that it didn’t on a “despicable YouTube video”.

        2. Mike M. says:

          Don’t let Cort read that, Bill. He’ll get the vapors.

  9. fixxxer says:

    Sure hope these clouds burn off today.

  10. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Surprisingly, Lake Superior water temps reached average yesterday – even with all the news about the late ice this year.

    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/gif/avgtemps-s_1992-2013.gif

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Wow, that is surprising. Wasn’t there an iceberg spotted just last week?

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      That’s an astounding recovery!!

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      It’ll go below average again..it’ll have a tough time pushing past the low-mid 40s away from shore.

  11. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I’m glad we didn’t get any weather to speak of over the past couple of days , right Fixxxer…! Lol. I just recently got internet back , it’s amazing how many things are used via the net these days , well at least for me , work and school are the main ones but extra things like TV and of course plain connection to the World Wide Web . ( it’s funny though life was just fine before the web ) Lol. I have many photos of CG LIGHTING from our little storm , more than I can begin to go through , I will post some soon.

  12. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Maybe next week Tuesday – ish , possible low tracking through town but not looking to impressive just yet although it will be hard to followup the light show but I’m okay if Mother Nature brings a bigger show this time around. :) I think Cisco is tired , not much in the long – range discussion. Lol
    Long Range:
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

  13. Jerry Hoag says:

    AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH What a refreshing day today is, Loving the refreshing air feel…..But ready for more storms!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    Wow Tigers are down 1-0 in the first inning. Not saying anything other than that’s not a good start.

    1. Jack says:

      Ahead….NOW…. 2-1!!! For what it’s Worth….stay CueDDD

  15. Jacob G. says:

    So looking down the road, looks like the models are coming into better agreement of weak El Nino, however I am really amazed on the warm pool in SST the Gulf of Alaska. That area has expanded recently and come winter time above average SST tends to develop higher pressure in the artic regions which will force the cold air back down the United States. This combined with a weak El Nino look out below, and Bill has been on this since this spring. Until we see something change I say you have to lean towards cold and snowier winter than normal, maybe not exactly like last year but you have to lean that way until you see big changes in the climate arena. AMO recently going negative has been a wild card as well and something to keep tabs on. Not to mention some active volcanos out there and now we start a slow decent down from a weak solar cycle. So much to look at globally and locally and never a dull moment!

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      With it being like this, My wife and I have been thinking of moving out of state soon, maybe sooner now than later…..lol…

      Warmer states for sure!!!!!!!!!!!!! Maybe even more Thunderstorms for sure with my choice of location!!!!! Even a Hurricane chance too!!!!

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Thinking of heading back down south Jerry.??

        1. Jerry Hoag says:

          HECK YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHY YOU WANT TO COME ALSO!!!!!!!!!

  16. Tim (Walker) says:

    Just curious but with the heating of the day and temps into the upper 70′s today who thinks we will see some boomers tonight? Look there’s a storm which has popped over the lake!!!

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      I think it may be a bit more difficult for much to come on line with the drier air filtering in , although if storms do develop I would think people closer to the lake and perhaps southern areas would have the best shot until much later tonight. With that said , I hope I’m wrong and the storms you are seeing move in. :)

  17. Jack says:

    PARTY !!! PARTY !!! PARTY ! TIGERS FINALLY WIN!!!!! WAHOOO….PARTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  18. Jack says:

    CUE: Glenn Frey – Party Town – YouTube
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54NWWRGLPA4. Stay CUEDDDDDDDDDDD. :-)

  19. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Big change at CPC in their longer-term outlooks.

    We’re now in the average temps category for the 1 and 3 month outlooks. We had been in below average temps for some time now.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

    As always, take it with a grain of salt. I believe they’ve had me in blue for the past few months, and yet it looks like June will be my third consecutive warmer month.

    1. INDY says:

      When we have had a 7 in a row below normal months I will take 3 months above normal that’s a no fixer!! INDYY!!

    2. Jack says:

      NORMAL ????? CUE::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxxyuwX33aE. Heeeeheeeee….. Stay CUEDDD….. ;-)

    3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      And even though we have been in the below average outlook it has been above average. So I wouldn’t even trust these maps… we could go back to below average.

    4. Cort S. says:

      Everyone misinterprets these charts all the time.

      EC = Equal Chances of above, near, or below normal.

      1. Jack says:

        Thank U…sir CORT ….Hope Ya Don’t Mind if I throw another Tune on That ” Note”….. SPIN :: Martin Mull – Flexible – 1974 – YouTube
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aN_pzu8QuY
        We ARE FLEXIBLE !! Around Here IMHO…..so Stay Cued.!!! ;-)

      2. Jerry Hoag says:

        Yeppers EC, Mean Equal Chance……….Thanks Cort also from my end…

    5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You are 100% delusional! It is a sickness with no cure! Get a grip!

  20. Jerry Hoag says:

    Man is the state of Indiana getting hit with that line of storms that just doesn’t want to move!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It actually looks like a whole line is forming right along the warm front down there….from Indiana, Illinois into Iowa.

  21. Jerry Hoag says:

    Maybe a storm tonight from the looks of the radar……..get all that forming line of storms a chance and maybe the forecast soundings that we have been hearing for tonight may be wrong. Maybe the very early showers of 7am will be here at 4am….??????!!!!!!!…..??????

    Who else thinks this could happen>>???????

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      They do mention in the daily NWS forecast we could see a few TSM around 2ish so maybe ….! The bulk of the rain however not set to move in until later in the morning. I take some more rain , fine by me. :)

  22. Jerry Hoag says:

    Dew Point has been climbing a little tonight. From 59 now to 63….So some increases in the humidity here..

    Oh WOW a 33 yeah charged for murder of his son left in his car in Georgia.

  23. INDY says:

    About 1130pm we will be tracking heavy T-Storms in west Michigan!! Sprites are feeling it tonight!! Bills steffenns is ready!! INDYY!!!!

    1. Jack says:

      Are U Ready INDYY??? Stay Cued….. ;-)

  24. Jack says:

    Hey Gang, Have Ya Seen This VIDEO of A Police Chase on a ” Golf Course” ??? Gives ahh Whole New MEANING…To The FORE YELL…. ;-) . Lol….check it Out :::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVYl70x5rXw. ;-)

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Watch out for a moving convoy, halfway down the fairway on this long par 4.

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