Monday

June 23rd, 2014 at 2:45 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  2:25 pm – Dewpoints in the upper 60s – it’s humid…not real warm with the clouds and showers.  One storm moving thru St. Joseph Co. with other lighter showers.  Rainfall totaled 1.8″ in just one hour in Sturgis, where there has been some flooding.  Other rainfall totals thru 2 pm:  0.74″ Kalamazoo, 0.60″ Battle Creek, 0.27″ Muskegon, 0.21″ Holland, 0.15″ Lansing, 0.06″ Big Rapids.   It’ll continue to l be a warm and muggy Pm with scattered showers and a few t-storms.  The NAM (car) starts rain around mid-morning to midday with 0.77″ for G.R. by Tues. morning.  The GFS-plot has 0.38″ of rain for G.R.   The Storm Prediction Center has us in a “See Text” over S. Lower Michigan today, for a 5% wind/hail probability (no tornado).  They have had 60 mph winds and some minor wind damage in NW Ohio.

Here’s GRR looping radar. Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where the snow has finally melted and the lake ice is gone. Here’s the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. Here’s Closings.

65 Responses to “Monday”

  1. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Our area has had enough rain over the past week. I am.hoping the storms miss us this time around! I still think our temp hit close to 90 yesterday at about 4 in the afternoon. Can anybody verify this? Official reading at the airport was 84 I think. Could it be possible that a couple areas close to the airport were warmer than this?

  2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Looked at the SPC outlook as Bill mentioned and it looks like we ” improved ” our position a bit for a few SVR storms . It looks like it will be a here and there type day / eve as I hope we can pick up some rain for those that need it or just enjoy storms. I would be happy with both of the outcomes. :) . Oh , and good morning …!

    1. Tim (Walker) says:

      Morning

  3. Tim (Walker) says:

    Anyone near the lake see lightning this morning?

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Another miss by Joe Bastardi calling for a cold second half to June, whoops

    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/477051895739990016/photo/1

    Wood giving back to back 90′s I see

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Well, it’s about time for GR to hit 90 this year.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        You know GR is slacking when even Traverse City has hit 90 already.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          TVC can reach 90° with a downslope south wind.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Travis, that was the CFSv2 forecast, not a specific forecast from Joe Bastardi.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        I find it hard to believe Bastardi would tweet out a forecast plus add in his own commentary for a forecast he didn’t believe in himself.

  5. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Look at that derecho around Dallas! Incredible bow echo.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Derecho? There’s not even a warning with that line of thundershowers.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        There was at 8:33, not 10:55. For 60+ MPH winds directly over my grandparents house.

        1. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

          was NOT a derecho… You need to learn the term.

    2. Mike Geukes says:

      By definition, if the swath of wind damage extends for more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers), includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) along most of its length, and several, well-separated 75 mph (121 km/h) or greater gusts, then the event may be classified as a derecho.

  6. INDY says:

    Good day for the beach Holland here comes INDY!! I hope the waves are big!! INDYY!!

    1. fixxxer says:

      do you even work anymore?

  7. fixxxer says:

    another craptastic dreary day. wonder ho many of these will will get this “summer’?

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Rainy during the weekdays and beautiful on the weekends. Ideal, if you ask me.

    2. Cort S. says:

      Trick question: Summer will never arrive this year.

  8. Looks like MORE rain after the 3″ fell in this area with that thunderstorm. I think I am set on rain in this area for a little while but hey, ill take it.

  9. Mr. Negative says:

    SE GR – 2/10 rain overnight. Wet, overcast…yet another one of our limited “summer days” to be crossed off as useless.

  10. 0.20″ in Byron Center so far. Still raining lightly right now. Really wish the sun would peak out!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Kyle remember how you were concerned about how dry things were getting a few weeks ago? Things definitely turned around!

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Agreed. Everything is so green right now.

        1. Yes I’ve gotten lots of rain! My yard looks fantastic!

  11. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    I received 7.25″ of rain for May while GR only received 3.31″

    It’s funny to see that it has now completely reversed for June.

    I’m at 1.43″ for June while GR is at 3.87″ (before today)

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Travis while this may be a little picky but as you do not live at Flints Bishop Airport if I remember right you live in Oxford. So while the airport station at Flint recorded the rain fall amounts you reported as being “yours” your location is at best 30 miles away from the station you are using as “yours” One more thing I have to wonder just how many people who live in Oxford use Flint as where they live? Just wondering!
      SlimJim

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Less than 30 miles away as the crow flies. Easily close enough for me.

        1. Travis I live in Byron Center and I have gotten a good 2.5″ more rain that Grand Rapids has and I am 10 minutes south of the city, so there readings will be different than yours.

  12. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    Parts of SE WOOD-TV viewing area now placed under Slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

  13. fixxxer says:

    Yet another day no sun. Looks to be that way through wed.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      As Mark(E. Lansing) said, better to get the rain at night or during the workweek, then on the weekends.

  14. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    May 2014 was Earth’s 2nd Consecutive Warmest Month on Record

    May 2014 was Earth’s warmest May since records began in 1880, beating the record set in 2010, said NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. The planet has now had two back-to-back warmest months on record, since NOAA also rated April 2014 as being tied for the warmest April on record.

    Global ocean temperatures during May 2014 were 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average; this ties with June 1998, October 2003, and July 2009 for the greatest departure from average of any month in recorded history.

    Arctic sea ice extent during May was the 3rd lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

    1. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

      I just finished reading an article called “The Scandal of Fiddled Global Warming Data” that adds more evidence that numbers have been fudged regarding recent so called record global temperatures. The study by Steven Goddard shows that real temperatures have been replaced or adjusted by using computer models. The data tampering was done by NOAA and NASA. I consider it more alarming that world bodies have officially approved the fudging of the data. Again, another example of the “Progressive” mantra of the end justifies the means.

      1. matt says:

        I was reading that article as well Ned. This whole global warming crap is a sham to get money.

        1. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

          I agree Matt. Plus it’s just another angle to try to control our lives.

      2. Ansel says:

        I want to know, who is running this vast conspiracy? They must be the most talented, underhanded, and smart person in the world. I mean, to have thousands of scientists all getting payed off to “fudge” numbers and we can’t figure out who is leading the charge…..or more probable, there is not climate conspiracy. You “Regressives” crack me up, ignore the data, hug your fossil fuels, because it goes against your political or religious ideology. Guess what? Science doesn’t care. Oh, BTW, the attack the fossil fuel industry is using against scientists is the EXACT same tactic the smoking lobbyists used with cigarettes and cancer. Distract people from the real issue by attacking scientist character etc.., because they know they are wrong and they will lose that argument. The fossil fuel industry knows its at the center of AGW and its CEO’s know its there job to make money for share holders. They will do everything in their power to keep the gravy train rolling and as long as there are Regressives it will be harder to change.

        1. Ansel says:

          On a positive note today. The supreme court just agreed that Obama can regulate carbon emissions. (They must have listened to scientists.) Its nice to know people can deny all they want, yet the country will still move forward.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Not at all – it’s actually a very few people. YOU are the regressives, Ansel…it’s not progress to force fuel poverty on the poor and middle class: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_poverty_in_the_United_Kingdom The country is NOT “moving forward” when we have less reliable and much more costly energy and the net effect won’t move global temperature by 1/10th of a degree!

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          This comment from Dave, the biologist in the N.Y. Times summaries a scientist’s reaction to the altered tempearature record:

          Dave | February 26, 2011 at 11:37 am | Reply

          “I also have to agree with Jim West. My firm ‘belief’ in AGW had already been undermined by some extremely bad papers about mosquitoes, arthropod borne disease, and the effect a warmer Earth on wildlife (I am a biologist). But, I assumed these were just opportunists jumping on the gravy train and that the problem was with the journal review process, not AGW.

          But the Climategate emails made it all too clear that there was no science at all in ALL these famous papers in Nature and other ‘prestige’ journals. Rather, all the sound and fury appeared to be generated by an unscrupulous cabal eager for grant money, fame, and lots of CO2 generating trips to warm and pleasant spots where they could regurgitate their story to a corrupted press and conniving politicians.

          As far as I can tell now, many of the assumptions of AGW appear to be false, nothing that one reads on climate change from Nature to Drudge is reliable.”

          NOTE WHAT HE SAYS: “unscrupulous cabal” “assumptions of AGW appear to be false…nothing one reads on climate change is reliable”

        4. Ansel says:

          But Bill, I thought we were all supposed to have cheap energy due to all the fracking? Why hasn’t that happened? Or maybe it will happen with Keystone XL?….wait. They’re going to export all the oil anyway? hmmm. Some how I bet you support both these measures, even though they will/have done nothing to make fuel cheaper. Furthermore, I find it repugnant you champion the causes of the poor and middle class when air pollution, caused by your fossil fuel industry, causes more of their deaths worldwide than anything. I would say that squanders your concern of more expensive energy. If you were for them, you would be for more regulation, not less. You are the regressive.

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          Again – You and you’re elitist friends are purposefully making our energy MUCH more expensive and less reliable. It will do NOTHING to change global temperature. This will enrich you’re leftist buddies who start up the Solyndras and LG Chems – take boatloads of government money and then silently go out of business only to resurface with the next wasteful boondoggle. You’re stealing money that could go to schools or children, and it’s going in the pockets of the politically connected. Again, you are taking us backwards – to less reliable the MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE Energy. You are hurting the poor and middle class…that is REGRESSIVE.

        6. Ansel says:

          For every scientist you may have, the AGW community has more. For example, I doubt you could state that your opinion is that of NBC as a network or even of WOODTV8.

        7. Ansel says:

          Uh, I think the people making the energy more expensive are most likely the oil companies, because they profit from it. Do me a favor. Look in your pocket. See a phone? Now tell me it isn’t absurd we are still burning fossil fuels for our cars/energy when we have the technology to make that phone. Or go to the moon. Or build CERN. Its a boatload of hooey. In the end I would rather dump money into possible solutions than cleaning up accidents that have catastrophic societal consequences.

        8. Bill Steffen says:

          I’ve already explained that NBC has been run by GE (the biggest lobbyist in the world and a vested interest in pushing “global warming” and Comcast, which needs administration approval for their merger. Why did GE buy The Weather Channel, which used to do 24-hour weather and now does a lot of climate change hype and feature stories.

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          Oil companies, Ansel? Nice try: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNSZ62xiD4M It’s their PLAN to screw the middle class and poor with “skyrocketing” energy and utility bills!

        10. matt says:

          When one has to “fudge” numbers to get their point across, it’s called lying to prove your point. There’s been many times the “Green Crowd” has been caught coming up with false numbers As far as who’s running this vast conspiracy, One would be Al Gore. I guess it’s okay for Big Al too ride around in his jet, or his big luxury automobile. It’s okay for Al Gore to leave the biggest carbon foot print possible but, not the little guy. According to these great scientist in 1990, they were screaming that in 2014 we would be underwater because the polar caps were going to melt. Were still here, and the ice has increased. All this environmental crap is, is a bunch of chicken little’s screaming the sky is falling, while they fleece peoples pocket’s.

        11. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Former Treasury Secretary and Republican Henry Paulson had a great piece over the weekend comparing the coming climate disasters to the 2008 great recession:

          http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-2008-recession.html?_r=0

          For too many years, we failed to rein in the excesses building up in the nation’s financial markets. When the credit bubble burst in 2008, the damage was devastating. Millions suffered. Many still do.

          We’re making the same mistake today with climate change. We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked.

        12. matt says:

          On side note Bill seems to know exactly what this about. Time and Time again he’s provided scientific facts backed up by links. He’s slammed it home every time. And all the “Green People” keep saying the same thing, “The sky is falling, the sky is falling.” Give it a rest

        13. matt says:

          Bill Steffen says:
          June 23, 2014 at 3:53 pm

          I’ve already explained that NBC has been run by GE (the biggest lobbyist in the world and a vested interest in pushing “global warming”) and Comcast, which needs administration approval for their merger. Why did GE buy The Weather Channel, which used to do 24-hour weather and now does a lot of climate change hype and feature stories.

          BINGO!!!!!

        14. Ansel says:

          The media hyping something? No way. Of course the weather channel hypes AGW, just as Fox and MSNBC hype for their ratings. Implying that proves some conspiracy against the middle class is comical. Secondly, implying that GE is pushing AGW make no sense. If anything, attention to AGW will only lead to new fuel sources such as solar, slowly making the utility market obsolete. The oil companies on the other hand have a perfect reason for arguing against AGW, because it will lead to the death of their industry. Remember though, this point of the argument is still BESIDES the fact that you can have your opinion, but there are many MORE scientists who have nothing to gain on the side of AGW. You are in the vast minority amongst scientists.

        15. Bill Steffen says:

          Go to this map: http://i.imwx.com/web/news/may2014-land-ocean-anomalies.jpg Explain in this age of satellite IR temperature data, why the Arctic and Antarctic are grayed out. They are excluding those areas, not factored into the global average. Those are the two areas that were cold in May! Here’s Arctic temperatures: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php They were significantly colder than average for May (yes, there are some weather stations out on the ice). In the Antarctic, temperatures have also been cold. Ice is at a RECORD extent: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png The estimate the temperatures over the oceans, they should have added the Arctic and Antarctic! The global NASA Satellite data shows: May 2014 was +0.155C above average and it shows that May 2010 was +0.156 above average. So this May wasn’t the coldest May in the last 5 years much less forever.

          Now go to this map: http://robertscribbler.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/nasa-temp-may-2014.gif?w=600&h=376 They use a base average of 1951-1980. The reason they do that is to increase the warming, because 1951-1980 is the coldest 3-decade period of the last century. Why not use 1921-1950 or 1971-2000. They pick the decades to get the desired scary map.

          They are on record saying their “plan” is to make utility rates and energy costs “necessarily skyrocket”. That’s the plan! This has nothing to do with global temperature. The U.S. is ALREADY lowering CO2 emissions, while those of China are zooming up: http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2013/05/31/carbon-dioxide-emissions.gif If you were really concerned about CO2, you’d also focus on reducing China’s CO2, but you’re not…you’re only interested in punishing the poor and middle class in the U.S.

        16. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          The argument that combating global warming somehow hurts the poor and middle class is so old and tiring.

          Global warming and pollution kills hundreds of thousands of people every year – almost always the poor. Further, the poor are the most vulnerable to future changes ranging from pollution to lack of clean water to rising sea levels. So tell me again why we shouldn’t do anything because we supposedly have the poor’s best intentions at heart?

          The right kind of plan to combat climate change will largely be paid by corporations and taxes on the wealthy. On a relative scale, we’re talking about pennies compared to our expenditures on the failed Iraq war and what the government spends every year.

        17. Bill Steffen says:

          Old and tiring, Travis and TRUE: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_poverty Some of the stories of the elderly in the U.K. are so sad…one woman was living at 40°F inside her home. No need for that kind of misery, Travis. Global warming does NOT kill hundreds of thousands of people every year. That’s nonsense. Human mortality peaks in the coldest part of the year. More people die from cold than warm…look at just the increase in traffic accidents on slippery roads. The lack of clean water has nothing to do with “global warming”. My wife is a Rotary Member and Rotary worldwide has spent a BILLION dollars bringing clean water to Central and South America and Africa. You really think a carbon tax will do more good than the rotary? Tax corporations more? Sure…and send more of them, their jobs and their money overseas? http://taxfoundation.org/blog/another-us-company-moves-ireland-tax-reasons. Look at all the companies that are leaving California. Toyota is just the latest: http://townhall.com/video/toyota-considers-leaving-california-for-texas-n1830576

    2. Julie Claire says:

      Hey Travis ! Wow. Have read through all these posts numerous times and went to the quoted websites to read the various cited articles. I can’t pretend to know all of the political schemes/ins and outs of our energy policies. I do know that my husband just returned from DC having been invited to lobby for some small business issues and came away with the understanding that none of us are directing the course of any of our nations policies, rather, the lobbyists are and they are very well funded. I guess what I hate to see is such dogma on either side regarding the existence of global warming. While we, the people are busy name calling and finger pointing with each other, the folks that are paid to sway policy one way or another are doing just that. It has little to do with truth and a lot to do with economics and political positioning. All this said, I appreciated you opening up this discussion and doing so with out rancor. I have to say that while I applaud Bill, Matt and Ned’s passion and ability to back up their assertions with supporting opinions, I was a bit discouraged with the name calling, ie, “elitist”, “regressive”…Thanks for remaining relatively civil and offering up good discussion material !

      1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

        Very well said, Julie.

        I do want to say that I think I fully understand why Travis and Ansel hold the views that they do. No hard feelings and no insults from me.

        Assuming that Travis and Ansel will read this, let me say that I once largely held the same opinions that you (Travis and Ansel) do. I have pretty much come full circle. I now largely agree with Bill Steffen.

        It was pretty much a slow “journey”, if you will. Part of it was discovering that the forecasts of the “warmists” were simply wrong. Consider this. When their computer models were first presented, they could be tested against historical data. Their computer models failed that test. Their computer models never did work. And now that their computer models can be tested from the time of their presentation, they have failed horrendously. (Do you guys understand what a computer model is? I can honestly develop a computer model to *prove* virtually ANYTHING.)

        The other thing that turned me around was the dishonesty of the warmists. They were caught manipulating and fabricating data. Red-handed. “Whistleblowers” published the warmists’ emails that said it is OK to lie about global warming because it is for the greater good (no, I’m not kidding.) But to me, if one has to lie to prove his point, then well, one may not have a point. At least I’ll never trust him again.

        I don’t know why the warmists say and do the things they do. I think that Julie hits on a large part of it. That is, there are big, big, big, bucks in pushing global warming – in terms of grants (paychecks) and ostracization.

        But I suspect that it is due to a much larger agenda. Political. Far leftism. “The Long March On The Institutions”.

        Finally, let me say that in issues like this, it is important to understand the viewpoints of each side. I am 67 years old and I have *always* read both liberal and conservative mainstream publications. There is something to be learned from each.

        Having said that, Ansel and Travis, I’m going to bet that I (and Bill Steffen) can actually present your point of view on global warming better than you can. I’m serious. I’ve read and heard it all.

        But on the other hand, I doubt if you guys can present the point of view of us “skeptics”, if you will. I doubt if you have put much effort into it.

      2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Thanks Julie!

        We are now at the point that just about everyone admits the world is warming at an alarming rate.

        Now, the next part of the debate centers on what it’s being caused by and how do we combat it.

        It’s interesting to see the debate evolve and change throughout the years as we keep getting very warm years globally. Or if you don’t believe air temps, all you have to do is measure rising ocean temps or sea level.

        1. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

          I love the way you just generalize and say “Just about everyone admits the world is warming at an alarming rate.” More and more people are coming to realize that the data is fudged, and are now becoming skeptical of the global warming hoax. The EPA’s war on coal will drive electrical costs up, and that does indeed hurt the poor. Their buying power is seriously and negatively impacted if they have to pay more for energy.

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          If you don’t believe the air temps, then this part was for you:

          Global ocean temperatures during May 2014 were 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average; this ties with June 1998, October 2003, and July 2009 for the greatest departure from average of any month in recorded history.

          Funny how global ocean water temps are so highly correlated to those supposedly manipulated global air temps you refer to…

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s the global sea surface temperature difference from average: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.6.26.2014.gif There is more ice in the Antarctic than at any time since we’ve been measuring (1979). There is also more ice in the Arctic than last year at this time. The water is colder than average all around Antarctica. The El Nino will peak around Nov. – Dec. at a moderate level and then start to fade.

  15. Looks like most of the better cells will fire along and south of 94 and east of I-69. The usual suspects. But who knows, maybe we can get a few boomers here in Grand Rapids

  16. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    Watch possible for southern counties:
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1129.html

  17. That storm west of Wauseon, OH has produced lots of tree damage in southern Williams County. 60Mph winds with that cell and penny size hail

  18. Lisa says:

    Way to slam dunk it, Bill!

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