Severe Weather Chance Monday – Cool Weather Develops Next Week

June 26th, 2014 at 6:01 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

STORMS graphic with lightning   Just a heads up that even on my day off (I was off Thurs., working Sat. and Sun.) I’m looking ahead.  A fairly deep (for late June) low pressure area will develop across the S. Canada (prairie provinces) over the weekend.  The wind flow and other parameters suggest a significant severe weather outbreak is possible.  Check out the SPC Severe Weather Outlooks here.  This will start in the N. Plains over the next couple days and move east into the Central Great Lakes Monday afternoon.  This will likely have all elements (mostly wind, but also hail and some tornadoes).  SPC says:  “MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS SRN SK INTO SRN MB EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 30/00Z WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING 500MB SPEEDS APPROACHING 80KT BY MIDNIGHT OVER MN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHEAR FOR CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WRN MN INTO NERN NEBRASKA. WITH SBCAPE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT…SUPERCELLS ARE THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE. LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO EVOLVES AS EXPECTED. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY5 PERIOD ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL PREVENT A 30 PERCENT DEPICTION AT THIS TIME.”  The G.R. NWS says:  “JET DYNAMICS COULD COME INTO PLAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  MONDAY WHEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS  FAVOR THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BEST RISK  FOR SEVERE STORMS.”

So…stay up with the latest forecasts over the weekend and Monday as we continue to track the system.

Also, GFS says 4th of July could be a touch on the cool side.  The Gaylord NWS says:  “WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY  THURSDAY ARE LOOKING COOLER AND COOLER ALL THE TIME…AS SECONDARY  COLD FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO  THURSDAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (H8 TEMPS DOWN AROUND +5C) FORECAST TO  OVERSPREAD NRN MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY SUGGESTING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE  LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT BEST…ASSUMING WE HAVE SOME SUN. NOT OUT OF  THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET STUCK IN THE 50S ON JULY  3RD.”

Model update:  The overnight European model gives G.R. 0.06″ of rain late Sat. (chc. t-storm), 0.44″ Sunday PM/Night (good chc. t-storm), 0.58″ Monday PM/Night (best chance) – it has mid-aftn. temp. of 87° in G.R., 0.30″ Weds. PM/night with secondary cold front.  Temperatures on the 4th may be no warmer than the in the low-mid 70s – comfortable, but definitely not a “hot” day.  The overall pattern is progressive, so we’ll have several cool days, then several warmer days.

A tornado touched down near Galveston, TX, damaging a mobile home park & caused a home to go airborne…There was one injury…7.36″ of rain so far this month in Juneau AK- a June record…62 mph gust at Hill City, KS…68 mph gust 2 miles SSW of Wendover, UT…Daily records being set for Antarctic ice extentSTILL some snow left at the Minneapolis Airport…4.32″ rain at Colrain MA….flooding near Mt. McKinley in Alaska leaves 100 people stranded…4.50″ of rain fell near Lisbon, North Dakota…FFlash flooding washed out at least one road near Woodstock, New Hampshire, early Thursday morning. Eighty people at the Lost River Campground had to be rescued as a bridge was topped by high water.  Waterspouts were spotted near Duck Key and Maria Is. FL and near Mobile AL.

169 Responses to “Severe Weather Chance Monday – Cool Weather Develops Next Week”

  1. John (Norton Shores) says:

    This is from the NWS in Gaylord afternoon update.

    MONDAY…MAIN SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SUPPORT ALOFT FROM
    APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY ARRIVE. THIS WILL LIKELY SET
    THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…ESPECIALLY MONDAY
    AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW /WITH
    850-500 MB MEAN FLOW SW 40-45 KTS/ COUPLED WITH WARM SECTOR WARMTH
    AND MOISTURE…SUGGESTS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX /SQUALL
    LINE/ MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. AS IS
    OFTEN THE CASE…PARTICULARLY FOR A THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THREE DAYS
    OUT…CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND PROPAGATION WILL BE KEYS TO THE
    EVENTUAL EVOLUTION. POTENTIAL EXISTS…AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER BRIEFING.

  2. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

    I will say if we are sunny and capped off all day until the late afternoon/early evening there will be some very dangerous storms in Michigan esp away from the lake

    1. Jacob G. says:

      Agreed, however it doesn’t happen that often here in western Michigan. I would suspect some outflow boundaries from the NW from previous storms around and I haven’t look at the projected surface winds for land breeze convergence but I don’t see us getting completely capped and full of sunshine. Now if can get some gusty SW winds where the lake effects are more minimum and good mixing then yeah I think we could get there. Best bet away from lake though. Fun stuff, at least we are talking weather in here for a change.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        Away from the lake meaning East of Grand Rapids as usual

      2. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Swatz they are talking about the daytime storms, a squall line would still impact us Monday night.

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Well I’m not going to hold my breath until things come more together and closer we get to Monday

        2. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Yep, I’m not holding high hopes yet either. Though it looks like we do have incredible ingredients coming together for Monday so hopefully the lake can’t do anything this time!

        3. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

          The lake is going to kill any storms that are surface based it is just simply too cold. They may however rapidly intensify once away from the effects of the lake.

        4. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          That is my thought as well Mike, not that I’ve learned the difference on how the lake can affect different types of storms when I hear surface base storms I cringe but elevated I tend to be more relaxed and hopeful of storms making it.

        5. John (Norton Shores) says:

          I thought you were happy with the storms we had the other night Swatz?

        6. Jacob G says:

          Correct, still expect squall line with frontal passage Monday night with severe weather likely and heavy rains. Questions are for supercell development during late afternoon ahead of main line on Monday with possible MCS Monday morning for NW counties as well.

        7. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Just curious Swatz? lol, I sounded a little rude, I am sorry for that.

        8. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Thank you Jacob, appreciate the info! :)

        9. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

          I agree Jacob squall line is pretty much a given however intensity is in question. The main threat will be if we can get any supercells in the afternoon.

        10. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          I didn’t take it as you being rude, which other night were you speaking of John? Couple nights ago or that Tuesday over a week ago? If you were talking about the ones a couple nights ago I got shafted, got shafted yesterday too. Now the ones on that Tuesday I was very happy with, but I just am cautious and skeptical, I’d like to see some great thunderstorms like that Tuesday if not better but we’ve seen all the ingredients come together like this and at the last moment just fizzle out because of the lake. That being said, I am starting to feel some twitching in the joints that could be indicating something coming, rather it be this weekend or Monday. I don’t want to get to excited or hyped up about it until these surface based storms survive the lake and inland.

        11. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Okay I am glad I didn’t sound rude to you, I was talking about a couple weeks ago I think it was that Tuesday night a couple weeks ago. It was the one where several inches of rain fell in a short period of time with lots of lightning and very loud thunder, and also pea sized hail.

      3. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        It was good here, but you definitely got it better there I was happy with it but would like to see even more excitement just not devastation and damage but with a system like this coming if it does unfold and verify sadly I’m sure there will be some.

  3. Bnoppe says:

    Could we see our first tornado watch of 2014?
    stay cued

    1. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

      I would be shocked if no one in Michigan gets a tornado watch Monday.

  4. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Just a question, I know it’s Michigan and it’s rare, but if super cells do develop on Monday is there any chance that at least one of them could grow into a large tornado?

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Of course.

    2. Bnoppe says:

      I really think it all depends on the amount of Sunshine, I did see the tornado parameters on the accu update and the dark reds (which i assume are bad) were over Michigan

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Okay thank you Mark and Bnoppe, appreciate it! :)

    3. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

      There will be significant tornadoes on Monday. The question is will it be in Michigan or Illinois and Indiana. I think South of Michigan is the best bet but there is alot of time between now and Monday for things to change.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Thank you Mike, Monday is going to be interesting for sure!

      2. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

        Ya im trying not to get excited but this will likely be the best setup for us this year.

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          I agree SW portion of Michigan will see it along with IL & In.

  5. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

    From the afternoon update from Milwaukee NWS. It is already hinting at morning convection ruining chances for redevelopment in afternoon and it will be even worse for us with the overnight mcs clearing here later.

    SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
    MEDIUM.

    THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD. A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL
    BE FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A FAST ZONAL TO
    SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK OVER THE NRN TIER
    OF THE U.S. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS
    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE MODELS SHOW SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
    RIDING IN HERE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. THIS WILL
    LIKELY TRIGGER SOME DECENT MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MN/IA DURING
    SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING…ROLLING IN HERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
    HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. CAPES WILL BE CLIMBING TO 1500-2000K/KG
    WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PUSHING 40-50KTS.

    WE SHOULD SEE THINGS DISSIPATE DIURNALLY MONDAY MORNING…BUT THEN
    GET ACTIVE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE REMAIN PRIMED
    WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN. WE COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER
    AGAIN…BUT WE/LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
    ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WE CAN GET.

  6. fixxxer says:

    Wonderful. Thats all we need is more cold weather. Especially on the 4th. If its gonna get cold like this everytime we get storms ill glady pass on them. It seems it takes to long for the temps to rebound latley.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Low to mid 70′s are not cold.

  7. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

    18Z Gfs has some very impressive soundings in northern Illinois Monday there are still convective feedback issues though around 18z monday.

  8. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

    The CIPS website has 6/18/10 as the top analog for monday. This is what happened that day which looks good to me but I think there will be more tornadoes.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20100618

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      It looks like to me if Monday pans out and this happens there could be quite a bit of wind damage, which I sure hope doesn’t happen.

  9. Jerry Hoag says:

    Here’s holding out for Monday, Who else thinks, like I do, that West Michigan or at least some where in Michigan we will see our first Tornado Watch of the 2014 year????? I’m thinking we will see one around the 2:00pm hour for issuance. I know this is a way, way, way, way out call for a time on a Watch issuance, but hey who knows, right???

  10. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

    Here is rainfall through Tuesday at 8am. Gives an idea where the gfs tracks the mcs Monday evening/night.

    http://hazwx.com/share/#48853 via @haznotification

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Looks like from Muskegon county to Mount Pleasant southward to the Michigan/Indiana border.

  11. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

    Waiting on the 00Z nam seems to be taking forever today.

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