Severe Weather Chance Monday – Cool Weather Develops Next WeekJune 26th, 2014 at 6:01 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Just a heads up that even on my day off (I was off Thurs., working Sat. and Sun.) I’m looking ahead. A fairly deep (for late June) low pressure area will develop across the S. Canada (prairie provinces) over the weekend. The wind flow and other parameters suggest a significant severe weather outbreak is possible. Check out the SPC Severe Weather Outlooks here. This will start in the N. Plains over the next couple days and move east into the Central Great Lakes Monday afternoon. This will likely have all elements (mostly wind, but also hail and some tornadoes). SPC says: “MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS SRN SK INTO SRN MB EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 30/00Z WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING 500MB SPEEDS APPROACHING 80KT BY MIDNIGHT OVER MN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHEAR FOR CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WRN MN INTO NERN NEBRASKA. WITH SBCAPE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT…SUPERCELLS ARE THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE. LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO EVOLVES AS EXPECTED. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY5 PERIOD ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY WILL PREVENT A 30 PERCENT DEPICTION AT THIS TIME.” The G.R. NWS says: “JET DYNAMICS COULD COME INTO PLAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS FAVOR THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND BEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.”
So…stay up with the latest forecasts over the weekend and Monday as we continue to track the system.
Also, GFS says 4th of July could be a touch on the cool side. The Gaylord NWS says: “WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY ARE LOOKING COOLER AND COOLER ALL THE TIME…AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (H8 TEMPS DOWN AROUND +5C) FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NRN MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY SUGGESTING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AT BEST…ASSUMING WE HAVE SOME SUN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET STUCK IN THE 50S ON JULY 3RD.”
Model update: The overnight European model gives G.R. 0.06″ of rain late Sat. (chc. t-storm), 0.44″ Sunday PM/Night (good chc. t-storm), 0.58″ Monday PM/Night (best chance) – it has mid-aftn. temp. of 87° in G.R., 0.30″ Weds. PM/night with secondary cold front. Temperatures on the 4th may be no warmer than the in the low-mid 70s – comfortable, but definitely not a “hot” day. The overall pattern is progressive, so we’ll have several cool days, then several warmer days.
A tornado touched down near Galveston, TX, damaging a mobile home park & caused a home to go airborne…There was one injury…7.36″ of rain so far this month in Juneau AK- a June record…62 mph gust at Hill City, KS…68 mph gust 2 miles SSW of Wendover, UT…Daily records being set for Antarctic ice extent…STILL some snow left at the Minneapolis Airport…4.32″ rain at Colrain MA….flooding near Mt. McKinley in Alaska leaves 100 people stranded…4.50″ of rain fell near Lisbon, North Dakota…FFlash flooding washed out at least one road near Woodstock, New Hampshire, early Thursday morning. Eighty people at the Lost River Campground had to be rescued as a bridge was topped by high water. Waterspouts were spotted near Duck Key and Maria Is. FL and near Mobile AL.