Severe Risk

June 29th, 2014 at 2:53 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook   The Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk of severe storms today across E. Nebraska, N. Missouri and much of Iowa for this afternoon/night.  The first Tornado Watch will likely come out soon for E. Nebraska/W. Iowa.   They have brought the Slight Risk east to Lake Michigan.  There is a 5% chance for wind and hail within a 25-mile radius of a given point for Lower Michigan – not enough to be included in the Slight Risk Area.   For Monday, the Slight Risk Area has been extended northeast to cover much of Lower Michigan (except north of Traverse City and far SE Lower Michigan)…. SPC has a 5% risk over all of Lower Michigan and a 15% risk in the Slight Risk Area, defined as a probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.   Here’s the SPC discussion.  For Monday, SPC says:  “SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY.   A MIX OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE…AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS ACROSS THIS REGION“  Here’s the SPC severe weather discussions for today, tomorrow and Tuesday.

Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map. Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from Milwaukee  NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven,

 

281 Responses to “Severe Risk”

    1. Hudsonville Barn Cat says:

      Not to be a party-pooper, but that warning is for a part of Michigan that is so far away from Grand Rapids that it might as well be in Texas. Lol

  1. Katie in Kentwood says:

    watching sinnerstormchasing on tvnweather.com. He is trying to outrun a tornado and its terrifying!

  2. Stephen(North Muskegon) says:

    These clouds from the MCS out west are going to lower our shot at severe weather unless it comes through quickly….

    1. INDY says:

      Clouds will be long gone before the cold front blows over!! INDYY!!!

  3. John (Norton Shores) says:

    If we can clear out the clouds by 10am were good, if any later storm development will be hard, hopefully we can clear out the clouds by 10am!

  4. INDY says:

    Uncle Jack we will be seeing lightning around 1am !!!! INDYYY!!

  5. INDY says:

    Starting to see some spin on radar from them storms in Wisconsin…INDYY!!

  6. kwood says:

    SCARED!!!

  7. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    I think the storms are going to die coming over the lake tonight but as we all are saying, we wait and we see we’ve been surprised when we’ve least expected it.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      I hope we can clear out by 10am tomorrow morning, that will gear our atmosphere up for the main show tomorrow night! :)

  8. ER from GR says:

    storms are approaching the viewing area. Look for increasing cloud to ground lightning and avoid flying kites overnight. If you choose to fly a kite just drink a sprite!!!!!! IWS!!!

    1. INDY says:

      Like it!! INDYY!!

    2. Jack says:

      ” TWO- THUMBS UP”,,,,,, Nice One ER from GR !! Keep um Coming & STAY CUEDDD 2 BILLS BEST forget The Rest !!! BILL WE LOVE U!! :-)

  9. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Latest HRRR shows the storms weakening as they cross the lake and the rain completely clears the area by 8am, I hope this holds true, that would mean we could clear the clouds out by around 10am.

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I already see the rain/storms if they were weakening in northern Wisconsin so I’m not to sure the big cluster in center Wisconsin will make it from what I’m seeing on the NWS radar.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        I sure hope they weaken, that means more energy tomorrow afternoon and evening for the main show tomorrow night.

  10. Mr. Negative says:

    Really?…even though we all know better?

  11. kwood says:

    i really don’t want anything bad tomorrow :( This stuff scares me

  12. INDY says:

    Well that spin has just turned into a Tornado warning ….INDYY!!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Wow cool!

    2. Jack says:

      NICE,, ON Wisconsin. !!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOYus1BE7jk. FOR U BILL & Indy…. Stay CUEDD!!! Hey Bill, U staying Up all NIGHT TRACKING ?? Knowing U , U most Likely WILL…. ;-)

  13. Zach says:

    Check out the supercell comp parameter…

    http://hazwx.com/share/#48861

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Wow I like the looks of that :D we will know more in the morning though.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Is this that line of storms tomorrow night? I am confused?

      1. INDY says:

        YES! INDYY….

      2. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Well then, I like the look of that, quite an impressive line! :)

  14. INDY says:

    Cool maps Zach!!! INDYY…

  15. ~Sherry~ (Comstock Park) says:

    Just got home from work. Looks like it could be an interesting Monday!

    1. INDY says:

      Maybe a interesting next 2 hours !! Storms still cranking across the lk!! INDYYY!!

    2. Jack says:

      Oh Sherry, A Beautiful PICTURE just For U :::: http://www.crystalinks.com/lightningsunset.jpg. Stay CUEDD…

      1. ~Sherry~ (Comstock Park) says:

        Ohhhh, that is beautiful!! Maybe we will see something like that tomorrow!

  16. Jack says:

    http://www.lightningmaps.org/. This Link “Lights Up ” My Life ,!! Heeheeeeee….stay CueDD… ;-)

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Lol INDYY… Interesting encounter we had there

      1. INDY says:

        4 sure it’s nice to put a face with a blogger!! I know a few of them on here !!! INDYY

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Yeah it’s nice to know that you’re real haha (everyone, INDYY is real) I see your excited for the storms too btw

  17. Confirmed tornado near Madison. Tornado Watch up to Milwaukee Metro.

    Live stream here: http://www.channel3000.com/severe-weather-livestream/26534246

  18. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Anyone stil around the blog who has any thoughts to if we will get some SVR wx , I’m staying on the sidelines on this one and just waiting to see what comes into my viewing area. Kinda odd not reading the forecast and outlooks as I usually do but I always enjoy hearing peoples personal views . :)

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      So those storms are supposed to weaken… They look fairly strong and kind of scary.

  19. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Im really hoping we don’t see many storms late tonight , early morning would be okay as long as we clear out. ( or a break or lull in the action at least ). If our best dynamics are still set to come through Monday Eve as I read on Friday and we in fact reach our potential with our heating / instability , well then we might be in business especially if the jet noses in our area. :)

    1. +1 Wisconsin can have these storms. Just let them die out at the storm shredder please. But please lake don’t shred them tomorrow!

  20. Zach says:

    Lots of flash flooding reports in WI

    http://warningweather.com/localstormreports/

    I’m hoping we don’t get much out of this round… I want to leave the windows open tonight

  21. tinainvbcounty says:

    Looks like I’ll be up tonight…..burned my toe on some cooking oil the other day….didn’t think much of it again until yesterday when I rubbed off the blister by accident. Hurtin’ for certain tonight. Got on here to check out the blog and it looks like things might be brewing for even tonight. Guess you are stuck with me! I need a heads up so I can hobble down to the basement in time if need be! ;)

  22. Jack says:

    BRING IT!!!!! INDY @ IWS,,,,Large & InCharge,,,, All Night LonggGg….CUE,JOE…..JOE ::
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDFKEQrPYmA
    CRANK IT INDY!!! Stay CueDDD.

    1. INDY says:

      Love it !! Jacks cues and Twisters blues tonight!!! INDYY

      1. Jack says:

        Heck, Yeah…Here is 2 Waiting on The Storms currently Across The Pond !!! ” Socking IT To WEst M.I.”"”. Spin, MITCH RYDER ::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETmx0g3WG90. ;-) . Stay CUEDD…. -)

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I have a feeling these storms heading over and weakening are going to affect Monday nights potential. We shall see, they’ve already weakened but I believe the HRRR predicted these would over the lake now to see how fast we clear out in the morning if at all.

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