Severe Outlook Monday/Monday Night

June 30th, 2014 at 2:35 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook day1probotlk_1630_torn day1probotlk_1630_wind  day1probotlk_1630_hail  Click on the Graphics to enlarge.   The map on the left is the Storm Prediction Center Severe Outlook for this afternoon/tonight.  The red is the Moderate Risk area, which has been expanded in West Michigan (Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren, Berrien and Cass Counties).  It also covers much of N. Illinois, SE Wisconsin, Iowa and N. Missouri.  The Slight Risk is in yellow, and that covers most all of Lower Michigan.  The green-colored areas are areas where general non-severe storms are expected.  The 2nd image is the chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point, highest in Iowa.   Much of Lower Michigan is in the 5% category.  The third map is the probability of a wind damage report within 25 miles of a given point.  That’s the most significant threat here in Michigan with a large part of West Michigan in the 30% category (moderate risk is 45% chance).  The final map is hail probabilities, highest as storms initiate in Iowa and N. Missouri.  While we have a chance of a t-storm through the day, the most likely time for the strongest storms will be in the evening, after sunset.  SPC says:  “LARGE HAIL…TORNADOES…AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT……A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AND NORTHERN MO INTO IL/SOUTHERN WI AND POSSIBLE LOWER MI/NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD FAIRLY NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS.”.   Here’s the SPC full discussion.  The next update from SPC is scheduled around 12:30 pm EDT.   I’ll be updating the blog when I can – watch 24-Hour News 8 as we continue to track this potential severe threat.  See threads below for useful links and radar.    Here’s the latest GRR NWS discussion.  Live radar is several threads down from this one.

I think Iowa and N. Illinois will have the greatest threat of severe weather this PM and early tonight.  Here’s today’s storm reports – by 11:20 am, we’ve already had 1 tornado, 4″ diameter hail and winds over 70 mph.

397 Responses to “Severe Outlook Monday/Monday Night”

  1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

    So, when would they issue a T- Storm watch today?

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      The line shouldn’t arrive until after 8PM, unless it is faster than expected, so I would expect a watch sometime around then.

      1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

        Nut’s was hoping not to sit out at kids B-ball game tonight. lol toooooooo hot!!

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          There could be some random showers/small storms during peak day time heating though, so maybe you will get lucky. I have my doubts though.

  2. Tom says:

    Where’s Kevin when we need him???

  3. John (Norton Shores) says:

    A line is begging to form in Iowa and Wisconsin.

  4. blharr44 says:

    Do I see a derecho forming or is it just wishful thinking?

    1. Cort S. says:

      Could be, depends on the exact definition of derecho though. A strict definition will have requirements for the number of and/or magnitude of severe wind reports, width of the severe wind swath, system longevity, distance traveled…

  5. jtwolters--Holland South says:

    Any ideas on timing on this storm to hit Holland? I’m going to be out running social work home visits all evening. I would like to be safe and sound at home before they hit.

    1. Cort S. says:

      It’s moving at about 45-55 mph and it has about 280 miles to go, so, about 5-6 hours from now.

      1. jtwolters--Holland South says:

        Thank you!

  6. John (Norton Shores) says:

    I will post again, you can see the storms are really strengthening and starting to move more northeast and more storms are starting to form.

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ARX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Wow there are so many tornado warning right now for that one specific area. I will be gone for a bit… but no worries. Ill be back in time to track the action :D

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        There are haha, oaky hopefully well have more to track by time you come back! :)

  7. Jerry Hoag says:

    Hey TWC is saying a derecho is possibly forming now…..Hmmmmmm and moving to the East/Northeast at 60mph

  8. Jerry Hoag says:

    A Tornado Watch out for Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      This watch goes until 7pm….

  9. Jerry Hoag says:

    Should be to Chicago by 7pm CDT……if not sooner.

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      Milwaukee by 645pm CDT

  10. John (Norton Shores) says:

    I could see a watch being needed soon for central Wisconsin as more storms are firing.

  11. INDY says:

    Wow the Derecho better start going northeast or fill in some more or west Michigan may be seeing a nice sun set!! With storm clouds to the south!! INDYY!

    1. Shelly Zokkoe says:

      Wouldn’t hurt my feelings any if it didn’t! Lots of campers up North for the Holiday week/weekends! They don’t need that! BIG storms last night at Big Star Lake. So much crackling lightning! Three HUGE wind gusts roaring down my road. Heavy rain and some small hail. No tree damage, but awnings, grills and lawn furniture. Not many were expecting the storms at all. It was a long night for all campers. I hope that it doesn’t happen again tonight!

    2. Jerry Hoag says:

      Hey INDYMAN it will start filling in more to the north TWC is saying there is a lot of instability in Southern Wisconsin where the storms will fill in ahead of this line of storms and there are signs of storms forming on southern Wisconsin and here in west Michigan the instability is getting high too, the temp is up to 88 and a dew point of 72. Prime for HUGE STORMS!!!!!!! Time to track, Rack, Stack and bring them here!!!!!!!!!!! HOAGIEMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!! TORNADO WATCH FOR WEST MICHIGAN THE FORST ONE OF 2014 IS A COMING!!!!!!!!!

      1. Jerry Hoag says:

        FIRST* Not FORST…LOL…

    3. Jack says:

      SOUTH ?? CUE :::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McIxMlOXbS0. CRANK IT UP……Indy…..@ Thee YARDofBRICKS ;-)

  12. Brian(Grandville) says:

    My thinking is if anything gets here it wouldn’t be until after 10 p.m. Based on their location now, and direction they’re moving.

    1. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

      Radar on tv is showing around 9:25 PM.

  13. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Bring on the major bust for GR baby!

    1. Cassie (Kentwood) says:

      I think we will see some storms/rain but it won’t be anything like down south.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        That’s a solid prediction, Cassie.

  14. MelM says:

    Camping in Allegan County. I rely on this blog for storm info. What’s it going to look like in Allegan tonight? Should we stick it out or head home to Holland?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Strong winds are certainly possible. Make sure you can be in a safe place if you get 50-70 mph wind gusts.

  15. Jerry Hoag says:

    Cedar Rapids IA Winds of 71 reported

  16. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Took a look at radar and I’m agreeing with Indy, it needs to fill in more North but we still have plenty of time for it to happen, I’m tracking but not stacking up a lot of hope right now, we’ve seen so many dynamics in place before and it not happening thanks to Lk Mi.

  17. weatherwatcher Oceana/Newaygo says:

    Wow, that is quite a bow echo in Iowa right now. So far it is looking more likely to go south of me.

    But that is a dandy of a storm heading our way.

  18. Jerry Hoag says:

    There is a huge segment of the line bowing out!!!!!!! The line is moving, especially in the bowing segment at 70 mph to the East slight Northeast….so we defintely have something to watch out for….

  19. R.C. says:

    That line is really moving and has a beautiful bow shape to it. Don’t see it letting up with all the ample heat and moisture ahead of it

  20. Katie in Kentwood says:

    its starting to move NE toward MI

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      And is it me, or has it weakened some??

      1. Don (Battle Creek) says:

        Yes, it’s weakened

        1. Katie in Kentwood says:

          darn I think so….

      2. R.C. says:

        Cycling. A couple of tornado warnings on the north side of the line where you see that curl. I’ve seen this radar signature on past derechos.

  21. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Well, as I said before I’m tracking but not stacking up hope that this will verify, it will probably in the SW lower portion and we’ll get rain and a few rumbles. So far our best storm for up here was 2wks ago. SURFACE BASE + Lk.MICHIGAN = DEATH to storms. JMHO

  22. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Southern lower Mi in SVT TSM watch , also can see all the other ones to the west , be interesting to see if it gets extended into our area , possibly later this evening if things hold together. We have had strait sun all-day here in cedar.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Link here sorry..

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Also a PDS ( particularly dangerous situation ) out as well , link below for details….

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0375.html

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