Tuesday – Starts with a Little Rain

July 8th, 2014 at 2:22 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

8 pm -  Just a few mainly sprinkles left.  We’ll be mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight and partly sunny tomorrow.  Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Detroit radar.     There could be an isolated shower or t-shower Weds. aftn., but that chance of any one spot getting that is only 20-30%.  Thursday and most all of Friday look nice (another great Maranda Park Party on Thurs. at Kollen Park in Holland).  Then we’ll have a chance of a shower or t-shower either Fri. night or Sat.

Some great pics:  Lightning at the Rockies/Padres game in Denver…check out sunset at the Cincinnati Reds gametornado-warned storm approaching Fenway Park in Boston…look at the sky over Lincoln NE…here’s a zoomed-in satellite view of the eye of Super-Typhoon Neoguri…facebook friend Pol Henrotte sends this picture of a severe t-storm moving into Luxembourg.  The storm injured a handful of people.

 

Here’s GRR looping radar. Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where the snow has finally melted and the lake ice is gone. Here’s the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. Here’s Closings.

105 Responses to “Tuesday – Starts with a Little Rain”

  1. Jack says:

    FIRST, Have a Terrific TUESDAY….ALL. !, Late July and early August, 2014, the Delta Aquarids
    Like the Eta Aquarids in May, the Delta Aquarid meteor shower in July favors the Southern Hemisphere and tropical latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The meteors appear to radiate from near the star Skat or Delta in the constellation Aquarius the Water Bearer. The maximum hourly rate can reach 15-20 meteors in a dark sky. The nominal peak is around July 29-30, but, unlike many meteor showers, the Delta Aquarids lack a very definite peak. Instead, these medium-speed meteors ramble along fairly steadily throughout late July and early August. An hour or two before dawn usually presents the most favorable view of the Delta Aquarids. Fortunately, in late July, 2014, the rather faint Delta Aquarid meteors will not have to contend with moonlight, as the waxing crescent moon will set at early evening. Try watching in late July and early August, when the Perseid meteor shower is building to a peak. The new moon in late July 2014 makes this year a favorable one for watching the Delta Aquarids.
    Stay CUEDDD…

  2. fixxxer says:

    Thats all it does this summer soo far is rain. Not to mention no real hot weather. Not good in my book.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I love it – highs in the 50′s and 60′s! Bring it!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      A polar vortex in July? This could be a great sign for this coming winter!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Going to be a nice MILD winter. I love it. Who knew? Get used to it.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          In your wildest dreams maybe! Face the facts – the mini ice age is upon us and we will be getting hammered this winter with COLD and SNOW!

        2. matt says:

          Your mom need to make your drinking sugar free cool aid. Theres no mini ice age except in freezer where you live.

    3. Cort S. says:

      850 mb temperatures of +4 C, brought down adiabatically to the surface, would be highs in the low-mid 60s F.

      1. WickedTwister says:

        Thanks!

  3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    This has been a great summer so far! Very few days above the low 80′s, plenty of below average temperatures, rarely need the the AC on and never need to water the lawn! I don’t know how it could get much better than this! More below average temperatures are on on the way! Get Ready!

    1. TomKap (GR-Michigan & Fuller) says:

      Get Lost!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Hey fixxxer junior where have you been lately? Are getting ready for winter yet?

        1. matt says:

          Its better then the freezer you live in. Wheres your mini ice age no where to be found

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Fantastic. Yesterday was another above average temp day. GR has had only 9 days with below average temps. Who knew? Must be the mini ice age. Been nice and WARM. I love it. Fantastic. Just the FACTS.

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Should have read, since June 1, GR has had only 9 days with below average temps.

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Hey fixxxer I thought you said it has has been cool and rainy? Make up your mind! I realize that you have a multiple personality disorder but get real!

        1. fixxxer says:

          So you like talking to yourself rj?

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          fixxxer if that comment wasn’t so stupid it would be funny!

  4. arcturus says:

    Track of twister released other than the one posted on Mlive?

  5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    We have many days coming with high temps in the 70′s and low 80′s! Get outside and enjoy this INCREDIBLE summer!

  6. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    Wind gust estimated 45 mph and heavy rain.

  7. DF (EGR) says:

    Finally the cold front! Get rid of some of the humidity please.

  8. fixxxer says:

    Crappy weather. Looks as were lucky to hit the 70s all next week. What a horrid summer. Typical michigan.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      It has been one of the best summers this century and you are complaining? Wow!

      1. matt says:

        Your mom needs to away the pop and switch to caffine free

  9. matt says:

    Take away

  10. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    It looks like this afternoon will bring another INCREDIBLE day to go golfing and do just about anything outside! Imagine that! The great summer weather just keeps rolling along! When will this great stretch of weather ever end? AWESOME baby!

  11. phlrnnr says:

    Does anyone know of a link that contains an archive of the alerts issued by the NWS/SPC for a specific location?

    For example, a list of all NWS/SPC issued alerts for Kentwood, MI (including thunderstorm watch/warning, tornado watch/warning, etc.)

      1. phlrnnr says:

        Thanks! Very helpful!

  12. Cort S. says:

    Blog post by a familiar name.

    “July 7, 2014 – Not all tornadoes will have a warning… ”

    http://adayinthedisaster.blogspot.com/2014/07/july-7-2014-not-all-tornadoes-will-have.html

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Ha, I knew he still read Bill’s Blog. Nice write up, though.

      1. Cort S. says:

        He has mostly been getting these comments from Facebook and people who comment on those news articles. You guys in Bill’s blog are way smarter than that.

        1. Paul says:

          When the taxpayers spend hard earned money on the most sophisticated radar, we should get results. No watches, no warnings, just pathetic. They’re lucky that no one died.

        2. Cort S. says:

          You DO get results. A steady improvement in watch and warning performance over the course of decades. Many thousands of lives saved, and that’s by conservative estimates. Current technology is good, but still very limited. It’s not going to catch everything, and it’s not going to catch it instantaneously. There are newer technologies being worked on… phased-array radar, satellite-borne radar, etc. That will improve things even more, but it still won’t catch everything! Your expectations are unrealistic, and you don’t seem to have a good sense of how tornado warning science has progressed from nearly zero to what we have today… in the course of ONE human lifetime!!

          By the way, two-thirds of your federal tax dollars go to Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and Defense. NASA accounts for 0.5% of your federal tax dollar spending, and NOAA accounts for 0.16% (the NWS gets 0.03%). That’s right, for every 100 dollars you give to Uncle Sam, the NWS gets 3 cents.

        3. Paul says:

          Cort, you seem VERY defensive of NOAA. You must work for them or you have a grant from them. Nevertheless, you needed to settle down before you posted your comment.

          The NWS has saved thousands of lives, but what would have happened if one person died Sunday night because they didn’t do their job? The NWS failed Sunday night, period. Thankfully TV stations like WOOD TV 8 were on it and probably saved lives, no thanks to the NWS. The residents from Kentwood and Wyoming did NOT get results Sunday night and that is very sad.

        4. Cort S. says:

          “Thankfully TV stations like WOOD TV 8 were on it and probably saved lives, no thanks to the NWS.”

          Were they? From the chatter on the blog that night, they weren’t on the air, and downplayed the risk before it happened.

        5. Paul says:

          Do you even live in West Michigan??? WOOD TV 8 was on.

        6. John (Norton Shores) says:

          No they weren’t! GayPaul is lying!!

        7. Paul says:

          I see the intellectual giant “John the Redneck” is weighing in, now stop playing with your little brother like that you creep.

          They were on live on WXSP.

        8. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Thanks for the link Cort , I think he did a good job putting the pieces together in a way that makes sense , at least to me it did. Much of what you had already mentioned in past posts was also in his write – up.

  13. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Matt just showed the 8 to 14 day temp and precip.outlooks. Temp is supposed to be much below and precip is supposed to be above. This is also commonly supposed to be the hottest time of the summer. Is summer over?

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Just because we are in the blue does not mean summer is over, still looks to be lots of 70′s and some lower 80′s over the next couple weeks, which if you ask me looks great! :)

    2. Cort S. says:

      Summer is just taking a vacation to the west coast. I thought it spent enough time there this winter, but apparently it wanted to go back.

    3. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

      The weather has been perfect this summer! I found 70′s my kind of summer. :)

  14. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I was down in Huron Ohio this morning with some old neighbors and we were out in the screened in porch watching a thunderstorm that did not appear to be too big. After a few minutes though the rain really picked up and lightning was nearly constant. The storm strengthened even further and the winds really picked up. Th screened in porch was flooding with rain and wind and the fan was spinning like crazy. We were all out on the porch watching the storm when all of a sudden I heard a wierd cracking noise. Lightning and wind knocked down a huge tree! The tree crashed onto a house and hit another tree that fell onto the garage. The wind was crazy and everyone sprinted to safety. Then tons of police and a couple fire trucks came to help the people and get into the house. They had to break into the house with a drill! Everyone is OK.
    After the storm ended another one hit and was even stronger and severe. The house started flooding and lightning hit many nearby trees.

    1. Sounds intense. Glad everyone is ok over there. There was a Tornado Warning for areas just south of Cleveland for some time. Probably from the same storm that rolled through your area.

  15. Radar estimates are saying that some of those cells over the lake could have some marble size hail. Are these supposed to make it? Didn’t sound like much rain at the shore given the forecast. Its raining at Little Sable Point.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Looks like they are doing a good job of surviving the lake. Some of them could have small hail.

  16. Cort S. says:

    Keep these two links bookmarked… let’s see how this July’s temperatures compare to July 2009′s temperatures. July 2009 was the coldest July recorded in GR.

    2014: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/grr/climate/plots/KGRR201407plotBIG.png

    2009: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/grr/climate/plots/KGRR200907plotBIG.png

    1. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

      Thanks.

    2. DF (EGR) says:

      Hint hint. Thanks Cort.

  17. The cell well offshore Norton Shores is capable of producing Penny Size hail. You will notice these cells look to die out, but then the next scan they intensify. Anyone along the shoreline could see some small hail in the next couple hours.

  18. Jack says:

    Nice screen Grab, From Muskegon :::::: http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/metdata/mkg/mkg01.jpg. Stay CuedDD

  19. Barb says:

    Rain and cold up here in the north country all morning and into the afternoon although it looks as though it’s starting to break up.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Most of the UP is in the low to mid 50s right now. Brrr.

  20. Mr. Negative says:

    ADA- experiencing a trace of rain

  21. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    What’s the current temperature anomalies across the state right now? We’ve got to be a few degrees below average most places. I really like this weather. Perfect for working outdoors.

  22. SW Kent says:

    i’m in Boyne city. The temperature is 53° with a windchill of 48°.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      That would be fine for an overnight low. A bit chilly for a dinner time temp.

  23. INDY says:

    Starting to feel like fall outside that could only mean one thing football….We don’t need heat for storms just give us sprite fronts!! Welcome back to the Blog SW Kent!! INDYY!!!

    1. SW Kent says:

      Go blue

    2. Jack says:

      ” GO ( INDY’S). COLTS!!! Stay CUEDDD…..YARDofBRICKS!!!

  24. Cort S. says:

    As seen in Henry Erb’s story today, here is more information about Supplemental Adaptive Intra-Volume Low-Level Scan (SAILS) coming soon to the GR NWS radar (and all other NWS radars):

    https://twitter.com/NWSPaducah/status/471333021082087426

    https://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/PublicDocs/NewTechnology/SAILS_DQ_Presentation_Nov_2012.pdf

    The radar will take time in the middle of the volume scan to go back down and scan the lowest elevation a second time. Low-level scans will be available every 2.5 minutes instead of every 4-5. This upgrade has been in the planning stages for months and is already implemented on some radars.

    1. Paul says:

      Now their getting it, laughable.

      1. Cort S. says:

        Again, they are not getting this upgrade in response to this particular tornado. This upgrade was already scheduled well before this incident. Another upgrade, AVSET, was implemented 2 years ago to also cut down on scan times in certain situations that would not sacrifice data. The Radar Operations Center in Norman continually develops new software builds that run the radar and process the mountain of incoming data into a useful dataset. If you spent time learning the intricacies of how radar systems work, you would be amazed at how much blood they are squeezing out of this 20-year-old turnip. We are pushing the laws of electromagnetic physics to its max in order to get the quantity and quality of data that we do.

        See, the only reason I am defensive about NOAA is because you fail to understand details like that and have some predisposition to want to jump down their throats. You can criticize them, but do it fairly. That takes research.

        1. Barb says:

          You’re right. People don’t realize upgrades take research, time and $$$$.

      1. Cort S. says:

        More (fairly interesting) information from a more balanced source:

        http://reason.com/archives/2014/07/03/did-federal-climate-scientists-fudge-tem

        1. Cort S. says:

          Try reading about some of the methods in a scientific journal, for a fuller appreciation of the issue beyond what your balanced source gives you:

          http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2613.1

        2. Paul says:

          Facts are stubborn things. NOAA got caught with their pants down around their ankles with the White House standing behind them.

        3. Cort S. says:

          Interesting how that peer-reviewed scientific article I posted which describes their methods for adjusting data was published before Obama was even president. Also of note is how 2012 is still the hottest year for the lower 48 even though July 2012 got demoted to #2 in terms of hottest months. Also weird how NOAA would even bother to adjust July 1936 back up to #1 if they have a monopoly on data and can control it at will. Your politically-infused theories need revision. Remember, science is a process, not an ideology. It’s an arduous, never-ending process of questioning, proposing, testing, discovering, and revising. Politics can infiltrate it, but the scientific method will eventually find the closest model to the truth. Science is hard; cheering for a political “team” is easy.

        4. Barb says:

          Watch .com sources. They are commercial sites that I usually don’t let my students use for research. I let them use.org,.gov or a peer-reviewed journal article.

        5. Brian(Grandville) says:

          I’ll agree with half of your comment Cort. But I do believe that science is being transformed, and manipulated into somewhat of a political money grab at the same time. I have no links, just wholehearted belief. That’s just the way MY mind works.

        6. Cort S. says:

          “science is being transformed, and manipulated into somewhat of a political money grab at the same time”

          There’s no doubt about that. The universe (everything contained within it) and all its inherent complexity is a very challenging thing to create accurate conceptual and predictive models for. As the saying goes, all models are wrong, but some are useful. You can come up with theories to explain and predict systems which may appear good (or don’t appear bad) and those theories, whether politically motivated or not, will stand until the relentless process of scientific testing chips away at it with evidence that the theory should be rejected or modified.

          Since climate science is being infiltrated by political motivations, now we have the additional problem where we have to decide which theories are the ones that are politically motivated. Whether it’s one, both, or none, this question remains: which theory is the weaker one? Not an easy task for anyone to decide, especially for those who don’t dedicate their lives to the subject matter. This is why cognitive biases and personal beliefs seem to dominate people’s decisions about which “side” to pick. Mental heuristics are quicker and easier… and they make sense, at least to you, or any human. However, as shown time and again with every discovery, what makes the most sense isn’t always what is actually happening. Any system in the universe doesn’t care about how you think it operates. But the great thing about the scientific method is that, when it is used, the theories that do not stand up well against additional testing will be the ones that are rejected or modified, and our conceptual models relentlessly march closer to accurately describing and predicting how a system works. It’s not a quick or easy process. But this process has been going on in earnest for a few hundred years now, and it has brought us from candles and leeches to moonwalks, computers in your pocket, open-heart surgeries, and you name it… all in the relative blink of an eye. So I think something is working here.

        7. Cort S. says:

          I should add to my previous two sentences…

          All this advancement has happened despite political/religious infiltration/opposition along many steps of the way. It’s nothing new. The scientific method will arrive at the more correct answer eventually, as long as people are willing to employ the method.

        8. Cort S. says:

          I have more to add. I don’t know when to quit talking.

          Before anyone else brings it up, yes, science has also had support from politics/religion. Again, it’s not an ideology, it’s a tool. It can be used to support ideologies. It can be used for good (nuclear power), or bad (atom bomb). If you use, or perhaps abuse, science for the sake of your own ideological endgame, you will be discredited eventually, and you will end up on the wrong side of history.

        9. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Cort, I enjoy reading your take on things. However at the end of your comment @ 1:13, it seemed to me that you were mixing science with technology possibly.

        10. Cort S. says:

          Science and technology go hand in hand, though. How do you get moon landings, computers, and surgeries? You question and test natural systems until you come up with a useful model that describes how it works, and engineer a solution. We wouldn’t be able to accurately shoot towards and land softly on the moon without Newton’s theory of gravity (the equations that describe and predict gravitational attraction between two bodies). Not to mention all the chemistry it took to get us rocket fuel, shatter-proof glass, space suits, etc. We wouldn’t have the technology for medicine and surgeries without scientifically developing a model of the human body, including the chemistry of both your body and your medicine. STEM… science, technology, engineering, mathematics. :)

  25. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

    Look at them Detroit Tigers :) :) :)

    1. Jack says:

      LOVE IT…DON’T FORGET TO VOTE FOR RICK PORCELLO !!!! For the AllSTAR Game …Pick RICK….Thanks , and Stay CUEDDDD…Go TIGERS,,,, :-)

  26. Jack says:

    NOT The ISS , but other’ are visible Tonight See HERE:::   Idefix and Ariane 42B 09:47:09 pm S 09:52:20pm 57° 2.4 (visible)

      Tiangong 1 11:21:24 pm WSW 11:23:48pm 68° 2.2 (visible)

      NROL-65 11:23:37 pm S 11:28:49pm 77° 2.1 (visible)
    Have Fun, be Safe + Stay CUEDD…

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Jack defiantly sucks! :-(

      1. Paul says:

        And John suck d__k, lmao.

        1. ER from GR says:

          this is highly innapropriate grow up!!!

      2. Jack says:

        *IGNORE* Button & Good NITE …John BOY ! ;-)

      3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        What is wrong with you, John? Your inability to spell simple words leads me to believe you’re fairly young, but try to be civilized.

  27. DF (EGR) says:

    The average Lake Michigan water temp is still way behind 2009. We will see if to can pass the flat line 2009 had for the rest of summer.
    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/avg-sst.php?lk=m&yr=0

  28. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    .73 inches of rain today just south of Marshall.

  29. OK so I actually do have damage from that thunderstorm that produced a tornado. I took a walk to the back of my property behind our tall pine tree and I did find 4 limbs that were laying down. 2 of which were actually peeled up halfway up the limb. Now I am no expert with tornadoes but could the tornado have been begining to form over me but not have been quite as developed yet??? Just curious what you people think

    At approximately 10:25 the blinds in my house got sucked in towards the screen of the window and stayed there for approximately 5 seconds then settled back down. Now I am not sure if that has any connection to the tornado but I was 1 mile from the touchdown spot and was just curious if the tornado was developing at the time by me and caused the limb damage. Anyones thoughts will be much appreciated. Thanks!

    1. Cort S. says:

      Yes, it very well could have been beginning to form. There may have been bursts of wind, perhaps straight-line or perhaps curved, that were precursors to an organized, more “steady-state” tornado. (I use the term steady-state loosely in this regard, as tornadoes, just like the rest of the atmosphere, are fluidic and very chaotic.)

      1. Thanks for the information Cort! I appreciate your analysis as always! You are a very helpful resource!

  30. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Those comments said tonight are not mine, someone is using my personality and writing inappropriate comments, I swear from my heart those comments are not mine. I would never say that to you Jack or anyone else. It’s probably someone with multiple names on this blog, what do I do?

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I believe you John! It’s fine we will just ignore them.

    2. Cort S. says:

      You could assign a profile picture to your name (the icon in the upper right) by signing into some website. DF or Nathan would be able to help you. It’s not a perfect system, someone could use the same website and copy your picture, but it makes it more difficult for someone to impersonate you.

    3. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Thank you Nathan and Cort! :) and yes if someone could explain how I can get a profile pic, I would love that, thank you! :)

      1. I figured something was up John because I knew that wasn’t your personality. The profile picture is a good idea. Although I am not help with that because I am clueless as well!

    4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      So it’s a coincidence that both Johns misspell the same words?

  31. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Hey Cort – I just wanted to say I really enjoyed reading your post the other day on what is most likely the #1 politically charged / polarizing topic on this blog. As I think you already know , I too share your same frustrations of what seems to be almost an impossible task these days when it comes to having a healthy discussion , especially on climate. A decision that ultimately morphs into a political mud -slinging match the minute it’s whispered and without rational thought , so I just wanted to give ya a shout out. :)

    1. Cort S. says:

      Shout back to you, Darren. Hope your summer is going well.

  32. Jack says:

    Photo of The DAY, ” Northern Lights” HERE::: http://www.softservenews.com/photos/large/1039605_10201674308523825_1961616445_o.jpg. GOD IS GOOD ! :-) . stay CUEDD… -)

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