Mid-Month Cool ShotJuly 9th, 2014 at 3:34 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click on the images to enlarge. The first map is the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 14-18. The dark blues indicate a high probability of cooler than average temperatures. The map on the right is the overnight GFS model valid at 8 am on the 16th, showing a thickness of 558 over Grand Rapids (I know, that’s technical – it means relatively cool air for what is typically the hottest part of the year. The overnight European model takes our 850 mb. temperature down to 5.6°C on the afternoon of the 15th and gives G.R. a 2 pm temperature in the mid-upper 60s. Based on that, I’d go for highs inland in the low 70s and holding in the 60s at Lake Michigan with a west-northwest wind. It’s a week out, but the pattern does look cool by July standards for the middle of next week. There is a slight chance of a brief shower or t-shower today, mainly inland – but any activity would be widely scattered. The European gives G.R. 0.42″ of rain this weekend and 0.28″ next Monday night with the cool front. Tweet from Joe Bastardi: “got a look at ECWMF (European model) through Jan. Major Alaskan ridge. Jet cuts into California. Supports our idea, nasty winter for US.” Rememeber, weak El Ninos can bring cold winters to the Great Lakes.
Also, four fatalities in severe storms (tornado?) at Smithfield NY. One fatality, 6 injured in Maryland severe storms. Look at the damage to this Maryland home. Neoguri now a tropical storm. It’ll produce heavy rain and gusty winds throughout much of Japan today. Recurving W. Pacific typhoon often means a trough and cool air in the Great Lakes/Northeast in 6-9 days. Check out the hail and mud near Flagstaff AZ. Smoke from Canadian wildfires coming down into U.S. Nice double rainbow over Washington D.C.