Severe Risk This Weekend

July 11th, 2014 at 1:28 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook   These are the Risk areas from the Storm Prediction Center. Today we’ll be dry and pleasant.  We’ll have a chance of showers and storms over the weekend into early next week.   Here’s the SPC severe weather discussions for today, tomorrow and Tuesday.  As I write this (10:10 am Fri.), the risk for Saturday (evening/night) is basically along and south of I-94.  SPC says:  “SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST EAST INTO LOWER MI”.  For Sunday the Slight Risk area as I write this is south of us in IN and OH.

Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map. Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from Milwaukee NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven,

The overnight run of the NAM (car.) gives G.R. 0.29″ Sat. evening/night and Kalamazoo 0.50″.  The GFS-plot has 0.41″ Saturday, 0.06″ Sat. Night and 0.10″ Sun. PM with highs in the mid 60s for Tues.   I’m too tired to wait up for the European.   Also, dangerous typhoon Rammasum heading toward the northern Philippines…Lakselv, Norway, located above the Arctic Circle, hit a temperature of 91 F (32.8 C). The normal high is 62 F…Latest GFS ensemble day 4-9 shows coldest air mass in N Hemisphere relative to averages over Central US…Norfolk Tides Baseball Stadium completely flooded.   Waterspouts over Lake Erie.   Building a snowman in Minnesota in July!

92 Responses to “Severe Risk This Weekend”

  1. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

    Sat night storms will not be good for what i have planed. Sounds like we may get a lot of rain.

    1. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

      Not good for anyone. We’ve already had enough rain.

      1. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

        NWS now saying could be 2+ inches I-96 and South. That’s way too much.

        1. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

          and wow…possible ‘patchy frost’ up North on Tuesday and Wednesday nights?
          Who’s not believing ‘extreme events’ anymore? Especially for the past 12 months.

        2. Vincent(N.E.Kent CO) says:

          1st summer i have not had to use collected buckets of rain water for my garden. I dumped them all out to get rid of the skeeters. My pole beans are 6ft tall and still going. Maters looking real good also. Hopefully most rain will stay way south,but not looking good.

        3. fixxxer says:

          Too much rain and too below average. We need a heatwave and dry spell.

        4. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Im enjoying this weather very much. I probably wouldn’t survive a heat wave or anything above 83 degrees.

        5. Jeff (Richland) says:

          I am also loving this weather, perfect! Not too hot and plenty of rain/storms!!

        6. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

          Extreme events???? The only extreme event we had was the cold this winter.

        7. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

          Possible FROST during the 2nd warmest week of the year? Sounds EXTREME to me.

  2. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    No, we don’t need anymore rain! Drier pattern following the storms this weekend? 55 degrees and a full moon out there. Tigers brought their bats to party last night! They crushed the Royals 15-4! Huge series as Royals are chasing the Tigers for 1st place.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      47 hits in the past three nights!

      1. Dan (Byron Center) says:

        Awesome! They’re unbeatable with offense like that! Can they keep it going? Smyly needs thst run support!

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          To answer your question, NO. :-)

          But Dombrowski (genius) has assembled a team with the sole purpose of making a deep run into October. They are very deep. They just need to stay healthy. I think they need to send Verlander down for assignment. He’s lost a lot of velocity and needs to work on his mechanics.

          In the meantime, it’s so fun to watch them play like this.

  3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Another perfect day of summer weather is on tap! Rock n Roll will never die baby!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      79, sunny and low humidity? I’ll take that.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        +100 TRILLION!

    2. matt says:

      Rock n roll is dead its been dead for a long time

  4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    How many days will we have below average temperatures during the month of July! INCREDIBLE!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Gonna laugh hard if were warm from august through the fall. Sadly i dont think it will happen.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I’ll take above average temps in the Fall and then have the bottom drop out for Winter so the SNOW machine cranks up! Bring it!

        1. matt says:

          Does your mom care that you sit in basement all day.

        2. fixxxer says:


  5. INDY says:

    Wow Bill slight risk are has a new job it stays south of us!! Must be the below normal temps on going!! Could it be that summer is about over!! INDYY!!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      No 90′s in sight! Imagine that!

  6. Hess says:

    From Dr. Forbes FB Page Tor Con Estimates:

    SUNDAY July 13
    Scattered severe thunderstorms in central and south MI, extreme south WI, east-central and south IA, north MO, north and central IL, north and central IN, OH, west and north-central PA, west half NY. TORCON – 2 to 3

    BTW, this is similar to last Sunday, July 6.

  7. INDY says:

    Polar Air In July …..NO WAY!! INDYY!

    1. matt says:

      Rock n roll is dead

    2. fixxxer says:

      Theres no polar air. Lay off the sprites.

      1. INDY says:

        Work work work work!! INDYY!!!

        1. matt says:

          Yeah were you workin? Oh that’s right selling dried catnip and broken bricks, my bad.

    3. kalamazooguy says:

      Those remarks are not necessary matt.

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I love the looks of the forecast for the next couple weeks! Below average temps and below average precip! Keep it coming!

    1. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      Good stuff. I’ll take this weather anytime!

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    matt aka fixxxer – GET A LIFE!

    1. matt says:

      Rock n roll is dead. Go play with your Legos and tinker toys. Or better yet go play with etch a sketch and act like your a weather man :D :D :D

  10. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I was talking with my neighbors in Huron, OH and they said that there is a lot of damage to that house where the tree fell. I watched the whole thing happen and it was very scary. They said that the inside is wet and damaged. Thankfully the people actually left the house about five minutes before the whole thing happened… in fact, a kid was right under the tree before it hit…

  11. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    And btw i was watching the news today and they said that a polar vortex was going to hit next week. Aren’t they overusing that term too much? They just want more viewers probably. Every cold blast is now considered a polar vortex.

    1. I never heard of the term “Polar Vortex” until this past winter.

      Now whenever a good chunck of the US “cools down” its a Polar Vortex. To me its just a hype word to get more viewers as you stated.

      1. Cort S. says:

        Polar vortex has been a meteorology word for decades. It got picked up as a buzzword on social media and traditional media this winter. Kind of like how “derecho” became a buzzword after one hit Indiana to D.C. on June 29, 2012. Naturally, these words have definitions to describe things people are not very familiar with, so they get overused and misused quite a bit.

  12. It WILL get cool around here, no denying that. But it will not be a Polar Vortex as they are stating. 1 day in the 60′s then back into the 70′s then upper 70′s. I had a high of 70 degrees on July 2 already so we have had air close to what we have coming next week already.

    It is very unusual for July though. The last time I wore jeans on a summer day was 2009. We shall see if I have to put them on next week.

  13. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I off to the Grand Haven Golf Club and then over to Billmar’s for dinner on the deck! Summer in MI – nothing better especially when the temps are below normal! Rock & Roll will never die!!

  14. Ohh I forgot to mention, today is the anneversary off the 2011 Derecho. Got lots of damage by me from that storm and 2 days without power

  15. Jeff (Richland) says:

    FOX17′s futurecast is painting out what looks like quite a bit of rain/storms tomorrow, starting around 5-6pm and lasting into the early morning hours, most concentrated south of I-96. Bring it on!!!

  16. Jeff (Richland) says:

    My wife works for a local hospital and one of her patients is a retired NWS meteorologist. Last fall or late summer, he came in for an appointment and told everyone in the office to get ready and that winter 2013/2014 was going to be one of the worst in history and the snow would get very deep. He was 100% correct. This spring, he came in for another appointment, and told everyone that this summer would be cool to near average with above average rainfall and more tornadic activity here than usual. So far, he is correct again. Not making this up!!

  17. INDY says:


    1. DF (EGR) says:


    2. matt says:

      Rock n roll is dead. Go play with your Legos and tinker toys. Or better yet go play with etch a sketch and act like your a weather man

  18. Bernie (At da Lakeshore) says:

    I plan on cutting firewood while it is cool. I think I used more wood last year then the previous 2 winters combined.

    Watch what happens when the hot humid monsoon air in the Southwest starts to over-run next weeks cool air. That will be a major rainmaker for some folks.

  19. DF (EGR) says:

    91 degrees in Norway and 40′s for highs in the plains… Yikes. +/- 30 degrees in both directions.

  20. BOB says:

    Hopefully everyone who has storm damaged homes or buildings can at least put a tarp over them.

  21. INDY says:

    Polar Vortex Coming to Michigan !!! Record Lows Coming!! Stay Tuned!! INDYY!

    1. fixxxer says:

      No theres not. You dont get “polar vortexs in july”. Thats a media hype term. Crap weather for a few days yes but no freezing cold

      1. kalamazooguy says:

        Wow matt! Once again, an unnecessary comment that has been repeated multiple times.

        fixxxer, how can you not get a “polar vortex” in July? The Polar Vortex is there year round and pieces of it can be broken off and carried by the jet stream. This is what happened this past winter, it was a Polar Plunge caused by the Polar Vortex.

        Yes, this is what is happening again, a low (broken piece of the Polar Vortex) will drop southward and set up its camp over or near us, bringing us cooler air. It isn’t fantasy. It could happen year round. Just because the term “Polar Vortex” is used doesn’t mean we’re going to get freezing cold air & snow.

    2. matt says:

      Rock n roll is dead. Go play with your Legos and tinker toys. Or better yet go play with etch a sketch and act like your a weather man

      1. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

        You sound like a parrot. Take a hike.

  22. Jack says:

    Bill, Not ” Good Timing” for Rain& Storms on The Weekend. Happy FRYday Everyone…….Stay CUEDDD….

  23. Robert(Plainwell) says:

    A little humor for today, some people will believe anything.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Now trending, “dinosaur skin boots”.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Haha, nice!

      1. The term Polar Vortex is being way over used after this winter. It’s summer, this is not polar air. It’s term is used people’s attention in my opinion.

        1. Cort S. says:

          It technically is polar air, as it’s an air mass that originates from polar regions (vs. the tropics). Air masses are named tropical, polar, or arctic depending on their origin region (which affects their temperature), and maritime or continental depending on their moisture content.

        2. By origin yes it is polar, but when I hear the word polar I think very cold. its more of a winter term than a summer term if you ask me. Regardless of the definition, I am with the #notpolarvortex. Although other are fully welcomed to differ. I enjoy hearing other sides

  24. fixxxer says:

    This has to be the rainest summer i can remember in recent years. No real warm nights either.

  25. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

    I used to have a link where you could view old weather warnings with radar and storm reports on one map. Does anyone know what i am talking about and if so can you please share the link??

      1. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

        Perfect thanks Cort!!!

  26. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Absolutely awesome weather today. Out and about enjoying this day! Storms on track for tomorrow afternoon? Cool weather …then, I’m hoping for a drier pattern!

  27. Jack says:

    SUPER MOON….Tonight & SaturdayNight….. Question, Does a Full Moon, actually Make People CRAZY ?? Stay CUEDD, I guess …….. ;-)

  28. Jack says:

    On July 11 in Southwest Lower Michigan…

    Muskegon falls to 40 degrees, setting a record low for the date. This is also the second coldest temperature for the month of July at Muskegon, just a degree warmer than the 39 degrees on July 2, 2001.
    Thunderstorms struck West Michigan with heavy rain and high winds. There was widespread flooding of streets, with some road washouts. The 3.19 inches of rain at Lansing made this the wettest July day of the 20th century there. Many trees were blown over by thunderstorm winds and lightning struck a TV antenna in Grand Rapids, burning out the transmission line.
    A tornado damaged a trailer, garage and silo about two miles west of Ferry in Oceana County. Stay CUEDD….

    1. matt says:

      Rock n roll is dead. Go play with your Legos and tinker toys. Or better yet go play with etch a sketch and act like your a weather man

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Nice weather history as always Jack, not sure what that other response is all about.

      1. I’m surprised there is no mention of the 2011 derecho. May be to recent in history maybe

        1. Jerry Hoag says:

          Derecho……2011…there I mentioned it for you kyle…lol

        2. Jerry Hoag says:

          Kyle Im just picking on you…..:-)

  29. yooper4021 says:

    Polar vortex or not….it will be cold by July standards in Marquette.

    Per Marquette NWS:


    If Marquette NWS office does not reach a high temperature of 51 on Tuesday, it will be the coldest high temperature ever recorded in month of July (per this morning’s forecast discussion).

  30. Jack says:

    Doo,,dew,dew…Looking Ou My Back Door ::: Stay CUEDDD,”,, & GO TIGERS…… @ The YARDofCUES……… ;-)

  31. Jerry Hoag says:

    Maybe some Water spouts with this very cold air that is coming!!!!!!!! Way cool in the month of July!!!!

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      No PUN intended with the “Cool” part……..:-)

  32. fixxxer says:

    This summer is slowly getting worse than 2009 was.

    1. matt says:

      nah it’s not that bad we’ve had a okay summer fix. Maybe you know who can predict next months weather pattern. I heard he’s pretty accurate when weather models with his tinker toys in his mom’s basement.

      1. matt says:

        *accurate with his weather models he make’s his tinker toys in his mom’s basement :)

        1. fixxxer says:

          Who are you talking about?

    2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      This has been the absolute best summer temperature wise. I still have to wait until 8:45pm for my runs, but better than last year when it was very warm. Although last summer I wasn’t immured to the cold… This sunnier I am.

  33. INDY says:

    Polar Vortex is coming to Michigan!!! Everybody get your blankets out!! INDYY!

    1. matt says:

      Why would you need to? You have that plush trash can fire pit. You should be able to keep warm all those new papers you’ve saved over the years. Maybe you can roast some of those stale marshmallows, and old hot dogs.

        1. matt says:

          That’s not very nice. That’s down right hurtful. Does this me you and I can’t friends?

        2. INDY says:

          Jack just skip fixers dip!! Bill will send him away soon!! INDYY!

        3. matt says:

          Why would he send me away?

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