A Warming Trend

July 15th, 2014 at 8:59 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

610temp.new   610prcp.new  Click on the images to enlarge.   These are the latest 6-10 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center.  This is for July 21-25.  For a change, we’re going to see warmer than average weather push into Michigan and the Great Lakes.   I’m forecasting temperatures in the mid-upper 80s for the first half of next week.  We have a chance that on one of those days, we could hit our first 90° day of the summer in G.R.   Last year at this time, we were in the midst of six days in a row of 90-degree temperatures from the 14th thru the 19th.  One of the reasons that we have not made 90° is the above average rainfall that has covered much of the eastern U.S.  The sun has to spend some energy evaporating water (it’s like when you get out of the shower and you feel cold…as water evaporates off your skin, it “steals” heat from your body).   When there is less water to evaporate, the sun can spend more of it’s energy heating air.  The high moisture air also brings higher dewpoints, which means temperatures don’t get as cool at night relative to when we have drier air.  We’re also going to increase the humidity and  by the middle to end of next week, we’ll have a better chance of our next round of thunderstorms.  Through today, here is the temperature departure from average for July:  Grand Rapids -3.6°, Lansing -3.1°, Muskegon -4.0°, Cadillac -5.9°, Ludington -6.4°, Manistee -7.0°.    The 8-14 day outlook has temperatures back to average over the Great Lakes.    Our average temperature for July 1-15 is 68.9° in Grand Rapids.  If we ended the month at 68.9° that would tie us for 6th coolest July ever…however, the warm air coming next week will knock us out of at least the top 15 coolest.

25 Responses to “A Warming Trend”

  1. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

    This will give ‘Rock-Head’ a cardiac.

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Funny. I was just thinking the exact same thing as I was reading the entry by Bill.

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Lol! Looks like you finally get your turn to poke fun.

  2. We shall see if Grand Rapids makes 90 next week! If we do that will be a huge turn around from what we have right now.

  3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Wow I posted a comment on ‘AcculessWeather’ regarding the misunderstanding with the term Polar Vortex, and I got tons and tons of replies in response to my statement. Clearly half of the media doesn’t even know what the Polar Vortex really is and they are just using it to get more viewers. Lets be realistic and stay accurate. We don’t want to create speculation throughout the community :D
    Today was definitely well below average, but I thought it felt absolutely perfect. I went for a run at about 8:30 when it cooled off enough (still immune to the cold from this past winter from the REAL polar vortex) and I ran farther than ever. The heat definitely bugs me and next week doesn’t look to appealing to me. I know many like hot and sunny summers, but it is too much for some of us to handle with all of the physical activity we try to put in during the summer months. Let’s keep it ‘cool’ Bill.

    1. Id rather sweat in the summer than get goosebumps because its cold. Got all winter for goosebumps.

      1. Brian (Grandville) says:

        I’d rather freeze my butt off, and not smell like a gym. :)

        1. That’s why they make deodorant ;) lol

      2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Kyle I’m going to have to disagree with you there. But I understand we have different opinions. ;) low blood sugar problems and energy loss are definitely why I side with cooler vs warmer

        1. Barb says:

          We burn more calories in cooler weather.

        2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:


  4. Mike Geukes says:

    The American Meteorological Society Definition for Polar Vortex:

    A planetary-scale mid- to high-latitude circumpolar cyclonic circulation, extending from the middle troposphere to the stratosphere. The Northern Hemisphere vortex often features two centers—one near Baffin Island and the other over northeast Siberia—with analogous circumpolar asymmetry atypical in the Southern Hemisphere.

    The westerly airflow is largely a manifestation of the thermal wind above the polar frontal zone of middle and subpolar latitudes. The vortex is strongest during the winter in the upper troposphere and stratosphere when the pole-to-equator temperature gradient is strongest. The stratosphere component of the circulation may be referred to separately as the “polar stratospheric vortex.”

    In summer, the strongest westerly circulation is largely confined to the troposphere, and the polar stratospheric vortex reverses in the upper stratosphere because of solar heating during the polar day.

    Reference: Simmons, A., M. Hortal, G. Kelly, A. McNally, A. Untch, and S. Uppala, 2005: ECMWF analyses and forecasts of stratospheric winter polar vortex breakup: September 2002 in the Southern Hemisphere and related events. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 668–689. [1]

  5. Mike Geukes says:

    Actually, I like cooler temperatures. It is easier on my body. I wear a [prosthetic leg. I was told a person with a prosthetic leg, uses 80% more energy to walk than a person with two legs.

  6. I will be going to Warren Dunes State Park tomorrow in Berrien County. I hope it does not rain!

  7. Barb says:

    Bill, at 6 you said just sprinkles. I went out for a walk in SE GR just after the weather segment and got drenched by a downpour!

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Yeah, there was one shower that came across Grand Rapids…it fizzled to a sprinkle when it got SE of town. We had 0.02″ from the shower here at WOOD, certainly more than a sprinkle.

    2. Cindy says:

      We had a cold, windy shower in the Godfrey-Lee section of Wyoming.

  8. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Scherzer gets the W in the All Star Game! Miggy gets an early homer. Kinsler throws the final out. Nice job Tigers.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      They did a nice job honoring Jeter.

  9. Jack says:

    BRING ON, The ” WARMER” Temps. It Is July for Crying Out Loud……BTW American League WINS The All-Star Game, So Our TIGERS Will Have Home Field Advantage in The World Series. PLUS, Thanks The MEMORIES Derek Jeter !!! Stay CUEDDD…

  10. Jack says:

    WOW, This VIDEO gives a Whole New Meaning To the Saying, ” Life is a BEACH” Lol….. If You haven’t Seen it YET, U WILL see What I Mean. Freak hail storm hits Siberian beach in mid-summer – YouTube
    ► 3:05► 3:05
    Stay CUEDDD… ;-)

  11. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Warmer temps on the way! It is July right? Looking for the warmth and hopefully dry weather to dtay around for awhile! How unusual was it for a polar vortex to happen in July? Doesn’t that weather usually stay way up North at this time of year? Rocky: Did you see that it snowed way way way up north? Interesting.
    Why all the pub for Trout? Yes he had a great game. However, you would never even know that Miggy went yard, Kinsler did excellent and Scherzer pitched very well against the national league! Why does this game determine who gets home field in the world series? What a joke!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Yes, it is the stupidest determining factor I’ve ever heard of.

  12. Wolverdog says:

    LA vs DET. Market and Money are beginning to drive espn and allstar crap.

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