Slight Risk Area for part of West Michigan

July 22nd, 2014 at 2:21 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook     These are the severe weather outlooks for this PM/night, tomorrow and Thurs.   Note that the Slight Risk Area has been expanded east into SW Michigan, from Pentwater to Grand Rapids to Kalamazoo and south into Indiana.  SPC says:  “SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.” Many could use some rain, especially north of Muskegon and along the Indiana border.  Today is our one shot at 90°.  If we don’t make it today, we’ll have to wait until August for our next chance.   This PM you can follow SPC severe weather watches, meso-scale discussions ans storm reports.  Here’s Northern Plains radar and Great Lakes radar where you can watch the storms develop and move east.   Here’s the GRR NWS discussion.   The average wind speed in G.R. over the last four days has been just 4.1 mph.   Today is also the 7th day in a row that the high temperature will be warmer than the day before.

Here’s U.S. wildfire statistics.   For the last two year period, we’ve had below average numbers of wildfires and acres burned.  Above average rainfall over much of the area east of the Rockies has made for very low wildfire statistics for the Eastern 2/3rds of the country.  Typhoon Matmo heading into Taiwan and then mainland China.    6.9 magnitude earthquake in Figi.

119 Responses to “Slight Risk Area for part of West Michigan”

  1. Timing is ALWAYS wrong here, so there is no surprise there. As for the thunderstorms out west, should be cool to watch the on radar. Looking forward to another nice day of weather!

  2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    It is a little warm today, but guess what instead of whining and complaining about the weather, I will be heading outside to enjoy the sun and warm temps! What a concept? I may just head over the the lake shore for a few hours and then to the golf course! Imagine that!

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Are you retired? Lottery winner? How do you have so much free time?

      1. Barry in Zeeland says:

        Still in school, on summer break.

        1. Jeff (Richland) says:

          LOL must be nice! Summer breaks for me equaled working 50 hrs/week!!

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I get 5 weeks of vacation time and I will be retiring in a few more years!!

        1. matt says:

          Retiring from what, Lincoln logs to a erector set? Go get a job for the rest of summer. Everyone knows you’re on your summer vacation. You’ve been inhaling too much basement while trying to the weather man.

    2. fixxxer says:

      Go shove it rj.

    3. matt says:

      Get a job on summer vacation and stop mooching off your mom

      1. matt says:

        ha ha ha get a summer job while your on summer break and stop mooching off your mom.

        1. Michael g (se GR) says:

          Did you just laugh at your own joke?

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Yes he talks to himself and then laughs at his lame jokes! He is sick person and needs help!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        3. matt says:

          Go play make weather models with your Lincoln logs.

        4. Katie in Kentwood says:

          Ok is this really necessary in here? I wonder why Bill hasn’t blocked you for constantly antagonizing people for no reason.

  3. Just as an update, check out the thunderstorm West of Dickinson, ND. Huge hail core!

  4. fixxxer says:

    Nice and july like finally. Shame we cool off “again” come mid week.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You are hopeless! Get a life!

      1. matt says:

        Says the guy who lives of his mother and spends his summer vacation in the basement.

        1. matt says:

          *in his mother’s basement.

  5. DF (EGR) says:

    Just spent the morning at the big lake, it was awesome. The water was too cold for me. It does look like the lake as a whole might pass 2009 shortly, we will see.
    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/avg-sst.php?lk=m&yr=0

    Another note that it may be warm today but last night was great for sleeping, actually 1° below normal.

  6. NWS seems to think severe weather may be a little more likely as timing may be sooner and come in around peak heating.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=grr&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

    Here is some text I pulled from the discussion:

    THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS CHANGED A LITTLE BIT IN TODAY/S MODEL
    RUNS…A BIT QUICKER. WHAT THIS DOES IS BRING THE FRONT CLOSER TO
    THE AREA AT MAX HEATING. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
    THROUGH THE DAY WITH VERY HIGH DEW POINTS POOLING UPSTREAM OVER
    WI/IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE AHEAD OF
    THE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TO NEAR MADISON WI IN THE
    LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS UPSTREAM WILL HAVE
    SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY AN
    MCV FROM TONIGHT/S CONVECTION AS WELL AS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO
    THE AREA.

    THE STORMS MAY FIRE UPSTREAM AND MAINTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF THERE
    STRENGTH AS THE ROLL EAST INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY
    EVENING. MEAN LAYER CAPES SHOW 2000 J/KG TO WORK WITH AROUND 00Z
    TOMORROW EVENING. THE 850MB LLJ IS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS WITH
    40-50 KNOTS UP IN THE MID LEVELS. FOR A SHORT TIME 0-6KM SHEAR
    INCREASES TO 30-40 KNOTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. FEEL
    THIS AREA…NORTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS…TOWARDS LUDINGTON
    STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW EVENING. NOT A
    SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS…BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTION THAT
    GOES UP UPSTREAM AND THAT MAY DEVELOP OVERHEAD.

    1. Like they said its not forsure, as we all know what Lake Michigan does to them sometimes ;)

  7. Jack says:

    For Winter NUTS ( per: fixxxxxxer )!!! LOL…. http://www.xmasclock.com/. Heeeheeee……Stay CUEDD, for Garden Variety Thunder- Showers Tuesday….. ;-)

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    These maps keep getting better and better! I am sure it will be a heat wave in Flint however!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    1. MichiganWon says:

      Rocky, how pathetically sad and lonely must you be to spend your days on a blog for no other reason than to try and get a rise out of people. Why don’t you and make a friend (maybe even in real life), because it’s obvious you don’t have any here. Do everybody a favor…..stop posting here.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Then ignore him! You don’t have to insult him. I’m sure Rocky is a great person and enjoys the cool weather.

    2. matt says:

      Yeah so what? The fact you mooch off your mother is real news.

      1. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

        Why don’t you give it a rest Matt? Your insults carry the same theme. I’ve seen talking parrots that make more sense than you.

        1. Dan (Byron Center) says:

          Matt is like 12. Your logic will not help Ned. He seems to only want to pick on Rocky. It used to be almost laughable. Now, just sad and embarassing. You know what they say.

  9. Jack says:

    From GR NWS : On July 22 in Southwest Lower Michigan…

    7/22/1953
    Severe thunderstorms struck during the late evening as a cold front moved through. High winds downed numerous trees, and several streets in Grand Rapids were blocked by falling trees.
    7/22/2010
    A round of strong to severe storms hit southern lower Michigan during the mid to late afternoon. Extensive damage occurred around Gull Lake in northeastern Kalamazoo county, where a microburst produced winds up to around 75 mph that brought down numerous large trees. More storms moved through in the evening, with damaging winds and a brief tornado in Allegan county. Stay CUEDD,,,,4 STORMS ????

  10. Mike Geukes says:

    .SHORT TERM…(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
    ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

    OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE
    CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WX POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

    IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH SOME SUN AND STRONG SSW FLOW
    WAA HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE THIS
    AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WE EXPECT
    SEVERE CONVECTION OVER MN AND EXTREME NW WI EARLY THIS MORNING TO
    TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THAT
    ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL TO THE NW OF OUR FCST AREA.

    HOWEVER WE EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR
    FAR NW FCST AREA BY LATE AFTN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THAT
    AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
    FCST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS BRINGING SCATTERED
    SHOWERS AND STORMS.

    ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
    EARLY TO MID EVENING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK OR NEAR PEAK INSTABILITY
    WITH POTENTIAL FOR SB/ML CAPE VALUES TO BRIEFLY REACH UP TO AS
    HIGH AS 2000 J/KG FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN FCST
    AREA. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER WITH FRONTAL
    TIMING THE PAST 24 HRS WHICH IS ALSO POTENTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE
    FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
    CONVECTION IS FROM AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY
    AS SUGGESTED BY 00Z 4KM NSSL WRF AND LATEST HRRR SIM Z GUIDANCE.

    HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AND MAINLY ONLY
    AROUND 20-25 KTS OFF LATEST SREF GUIDANCE… ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEFLY
    HIGHER VALUES ARE NOTED OVER OUR FAR NW FCST AERA. UPPER LEVEL
    SUPPORT FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PASSES BY WELL
    NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO DIMINISH RATHER
    QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. SO THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
    WX LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS IS RATHER
    LOW/MARGINAL.

  11. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Potential for severe thunderstorms seems low which is good news. I , for one here, was hoping the heat would stay longer. No, I’m talking about the police. Seems we only enjoy the warm weather for a short period of time.

  12. Michael g (se GR) says:

    NWS has 6 days in a row between 75 and 80 after today. Sounds great!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I concur. :-)

      1. DF (EGR) says:

        Yep, perfect temps coming again.

  13. Some pretty good storms in SE Iowa right now moving away from us. One has a pretty nice hail core.

    As for here, it is a great start to the morning! Got to watch a fantastic sunrise and it will only get warmer through the day from here. I sit at 69 currently here are 8:01 which is a mild start. Looks as though there is a chance of some severe weather but I am not to keen on us getting anything much. Id say we stand a better chance at a few stronger storms that may warrant a Special Weather Statement more than likely.

  14. DF (EGR) says:

    That massive heat wave yesterday was exactly 1 degree above normal… Lol. Proves how cold it’s been.

    1. Cliff(KZOO) says:

      Wow that is HOT!!! Still -5 for the month.

    2. 2 degrees actually, we made 85. But who really cares about 1 degree. Still a cool month by July standards.

      Saw the graphic this morning that said we had 6 90 degree days in 2013 by this date. 2012 had 25! That is nearly a month of 90′s!

      1. That 85 reading is at the airport. Not sure what downtown GR officially made.

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        1 degree actually. NWS takes the high (86) and low (62) in consideration when calculating the departure from average on a given day.

        Yesterday was only the sixth day out of 21 for the month above average. Cool Julys are the new normal?

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Fifth day, not sixth day. My error.

  15. Cliff(KZOO) says:

    What a difference a month makes. Only 4 days above average for the whole month.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Big difference from last month for sure.

  16. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Here is a little briefing for the incoming storms tonight: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=103476&source=0
    Seems like we do have a chance considering that this is a powerful cold front that outperformed itself yesterday. However, the NWS and multiple other sources do not seem to be overly positive on any strong thunderstorms. Rain looks to be the best bet. Of course I don’t have access to technology that allows me to make reliable forecasts on my own (let alone know how to do the math) so it’s all dependent on the forecast models for me. And I’m not seeing anything special.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Dynamics are not fully in place today otherwise I think we would be in for a significant severe weather event. What we do have going for us is sunshine, hot/humid weather, no morning mcs/cloud activity to mitigate future development, and a cold front coming in close enough to peak heating.

  17. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    NWS Detroit calling for some 90′s today!

    “Model soundings suggest the boundary layer will become well mixed this afternoon which will result in high temps into the upper 80s/low 90s.”

    The official June 2014 write up from NOAA is out. Another global record month.

    “The combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces for June 2014 was record high for the month, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20th century average. This surpasses the previous record, set in June 1998, by 0.03°C (0.05°F). Nine of the ten warmest Junes on record have occurred during the 21st century, including each of the past five years.

    June 2014 also marks the second consecutive month with record high global temperatures. With the exception of February (21st warmest), every month to date in 2014 has ranked among the four warmest for its respective month. Additionally, June 2014 marked the 38th consecutive June and 352nd consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average global temperature for June was June 1976 and the last below-average global temperature for any month was February 1985″

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/06/

  18. Cassie (Kentwood) says:

    I came here to chat about weather…see people fighting and name calling…lame. Grow up guys…

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      +1

    2. timeno says:

      some great stuff on this site. and some really obnoxious stuff we just ignore.

    3. kevin. w says:

      Ya its frustrating and its easy to get drawn into it but I try hard to ignore it and be the better person, but its hard to not say anything about it. Just move on. :)

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        Same here Kevin, it’s easy to get drawn into it but it’s even easier to get lost in the threads because of it trying to find intelligent weather related topics and discussions.

    4. Linda ((Rockford)) says:

      Totally agree. Very frustrating. I just want to read about the weather.

    5. BOB says:

      It’s entertaining!

      1. Jeff (Richland) says:

        Don’t encourage them. This is supposed to be a weather blog and fot the most part those of us who are regulars are tired of it.

        1. Katie in Kentwood says:

          +1

  19. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Both the WRF and HRRR are currently showing storms developing basically over the lake and moving in this evening, we’ll see if that holds, but plenty of heat/humidity today and no cloud debris to limit heating/fuel for the fire. I think today is one of those days that could either be a bust or worse than forecast.

    WRF: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/refc_loop.html
    HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014072210&plotName=cref_t7sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields – Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t7

  20. kevin. w says:

    Time difference from Michigan to Alaska is little tough but I can get use to 4 hour (6 a.m.) difference. Its been nice not to look at the weather and have no idea what’s going on for a change back in the U.S. I can see quit a few on here are tired of things but you just got to forget it and get out and enjoy something outdoors. I just want to point something out of interest up here as I was talking with some people at breakfast yesterday. I noticed some houses here that looked like they were sinking in the ground and I asked some people at breakfast what was going on. They said that the permafrost is disappearing and are very concerned about how the climate in Alaska has changed. There are more bugs then ever and also alot of the pine trees here are dying due to the pine bark beetle. One of the native Alaskan’s here said that he thinks that there will no longer be pine/cedar trees there within the next 5 years. The couple I talked to said the winter’s and summer’s have really changed and are concerned that there area may never be the same. I can tell you from being there about 5 or 7 years ago that the landscape has really changed. I’m hoping to make it to some of the glacier’s there to see how things have changed. I took pictures when I was last there and am going to try and stand in the same place and take some more pictures and compare the difference. Everyone have a nice day. :)

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Thanks for the report, Kevin. Sounds like you’re having quite the adventure.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Where in Alaska are you right now? And yes its nice be in an earlier time zone. We were only 2 hours earlier and it was nice, but it did not take very long to get use to the new time for us at all.
      SlimJim

    3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      It’s crazy how fast some of those glaciers have been retreating in Alaska. I was up there and saw it in the early 2000′s… can only imagine how different it is today.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        It’s crazy how fast some of those glaciers have been expanding in Alaska: http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-001-03/

  21. Shelly Zokkoe says:

    Really windy up here at Big Star Lake, Baldwin Michigan. White caps on the lake. Pretty gusty at times too. South east to east winds mostly. Nice and cool….humidity doesn’t seem so bad with the strong winds! Grateful!

  22. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    For a week now FDM has had her webs up more times than the last 2 systems, it’s been exhausting correcting her to staying upright and stable because she just want to keep those webs up, my bodometeor has been talking as well. So we shall see

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      I’m sorry Swatz, I’m a bit lost, are you trying to say you are feeling it for storms?

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        I am a bit, and the FDM is my neurological duck that loses her balance when strong systems come through and walks like a drunken sailor and falls over and on her back. When no systems are coming she’s pretty stable. Just a fun ongoing joke here, just try to bring light into the blog of a bit of humor instead of drama and name calling. But yeah, I’ll feel it in my joints as well. I’m not feeling it as bad as I have in the past but my little ducky has been pretty spot on though ;-)

        1. Jeff (Richland) says:

          Nice!

        2. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

          Any way for you to post a Video of your Druken Duck? Id love to watch it and get abetter idea of what she does ? :)

        3. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          I’ve tried Rad but I do have a picture

        4. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Rad this is what she looks like when I find her flipped with webs high to the sky, LOL! It’s funny and pathetic at the same time. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152195977147694&l=295e8056cc

        5. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

          LOL,Cool looking Duck, Kinda feel sorry for Her. Thanks for Sharing :)

        6. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Thank you Rad~ I adore all my YardofDucks/Geese, which BTW my geese also have their tail feathers in a knot today, so something has to verify with how they’ve been those little pri*ks! LOL!!

        7. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Thanks for sharing, Swatz. Made me laugh a bit, but I kinda feel guilty about that.

  23. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Today looks like it will be the warmest day for July 2014. So far this July is running 10.7° colder then July of 2012 in fact here is a list of the mean temps for GR for July since July 2009
    July 2014 68.5° (so far)
    July 2013 72.7°
    July 2012 79.2°
    July 2011 77.5°
    July 2010 75.5°
    July 2009 67.1°
    And just for the fun of it July 2008 72.1° and July 2007 72.2°
    As you can see this summer is trending close to 2009.
    Witch could mean the upcoming fall/winter (if you buy into the analog years) might be a rather up and down pattern we shall see.
    SlimJim

  24. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Update from NWS, still sounds like the best chance of severe weather will be along and west of 131, also latest HRRR would bring the best chance of storms along and south of 96.

    .UPDATE…
    ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

    NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUR MAIN
    FOCUS IS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SEVERE THREAT FOR LATE THIS
    AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

    QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA THIS MORNING…AND THIS IS
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID AFTERNOON. BAND OF CLOUDS LEFT OVER
    FROM CONVECTION OUT WEST LAST NIGHT IS MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER
    OF THE CWFA. THIS IS MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER PER THE RADAR
    AND SFC OBS. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED YET OVERHEAD.

    WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE NW CORNER OF THE CWFA WILL SEE A
    DECENT CHC OF CONVECTION AFTER AROUND 21Z OR SO…AND THEN SPREAD
    SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA THEREAFTER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY
    AXIS IS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT LOCATED FROM THE WRN
    U.P. TO NE IA AS OF 15Z THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT INTO OUR
    AREA AS THE LLJ/MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLIDES IN LATER THIS
    AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY
    DEVELOP OVERHEAD BEFORE THAT TIME…HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN
    GREATLY CAPPED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

    MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE WRN AREAS OF THE CWFA SHOULD SEE
    1500-2000 J/KG OF ML AND MU CAPE NOSE INTO THE AREA BY 00Z AND
    SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z VIA AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE BETTER
    INSTABILITY IS DEFINITELY WEST OF THE AREA…AND THE BETTER
    DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WE DO SEE A SHORT WAVE ACROSS
    SD THAT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO SUPPORT
    CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.

    WE BELIEVE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
    AREA…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA SIMILAR TO THE
    THINKING OF SPC PER THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS
    TRENDED MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE EXPECTED TIME OF CONVECTION
    PEAKING AT AROUND 30-35 KNOTS…HIGHEST WEST WHERE THE BEST
    INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE NOT
    EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT HIGH…SO A WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
    WITH 40 KNOTS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A 30+ KNOT LLJ PRESENT DURING
    THE TIME OF CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FAIRLY
    THICK CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER. WE ALSO AGREE WITH SPC ABOUT
    THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS AND
    0-1KM HELICITY VALUES 150+ M2/S2.

      1. I like the looks of the HRRR. We will see I guess, not the best dynamics here but there certainly could be some severe cells so its worth watching.

        This is what the SPC says:

        …CNTRL PLNS ENE INTO IL/IND/SRN WI/LWR MI TODAY/TNGT…
        SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE TO STRONG STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE ENE
        ACROSS UPR MI AND PERHAPS NRN LWR MI LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
        EARLY THIS AFTN ON SRN FRINGE UPR IMPULSE CROSSING CNTRL/SRN ONT.
        WHILE SEASONABLY STRONG/VERTICALLY VEERING FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
        FOR SUPERCELLS…MODEST MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING EML CAP WILL
        LIMIT BUOYANCY. SFC HEATING AND TRAILING BAND OF MOISTURE ARRIVING
        FROM MN/WI COULD…HOWEVER…YIELD A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
        ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER LWR MI THIS AFTN AND EVE AS A SECONDARY
        WAVE OF ASCENT LOOSELY TIED TO THE DEPARTING ONT TROUGH BRUSHES
        REGION.

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          Not as impressive as the past 2 systems but it’s something. Looks like the majority of the action once again will be to our S-SE

  25. Not sure if anyone has any data, but does anyone know what summers were after the years we never made 90? Were they still cool to follow? were they warmer? Should be interesting to know.

    1. fixxxer says:

      This is a rare summer with no real hot days. I suspect the fall and winter will be more of the same. Just hopefully not as bitter cold.

      1. I agree. We do not need -40 to -50 degree windchills this winter. I am hoping for a more mild winter, but we can still get plenty of snow, just be warmer.

        1. fixxxer says:

          I dont even wanna talk about snow until october.

        2. Jeff (Richland) says:

          Or December, October is way too early.

        3. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          I don’t want to talk of snow PERIOD after last winter.

        4. Jeff (Richland) says:

          +1 even better!

    2. DF (EGR) says:

      Per the GR NWS there has only been one year without a 90° day, 1951.
      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grr/presentations/Grand_Rapids_Missing_90_Degree_Days__2014-07-21_03-57-54.pdf

      I only have limited data back through the 70′s for GR, we’ll have to wait for Slim to answer this one. I do know the 50′s were cold in general, that why those AGW graphs start there.

  26. John (Norton Shores) says:

    SPC update hasn’t done much to the slight risk, they did remove Oceana county and Northern Muskegon county from M-46 to the north.

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      HA HA, after looking at the HRRR I’m not surprised.

    2. fixxxer says:

      Our severe weather chances are coming to a close here soon. June is usually the peak.

      1. Jeff (Richland) says:

        They don’t ever come to a close, except for winter typically, though the worst storms of 2013 came on Nov 17 (my bday) last year. I will never forget that.

        1. Very true Jeff. The night before that event I could not sleep. I managed 4 hours the night before and woke up to a 30% hatched area for this area for tornadoes. While we didn’t get a tornado (in this area at least) It was still cool watching the line roll in. That was a cool November day.

        2. Jeff (Richland) says:

          Yes, we were in a high risk for severe. Rare indeed, and even more rare in MI in Spring/Summer let alone November!

        3. John (Norton Shores) says:

          And then two weeks after that we were buried in a foot of snow for Thanksgiving. Just proves Michigan’s weather can change in a snap of a finger, and Fixxxer we can get severe weather into September and even November like last year, so just because July comes to an end doesn’t mean the severe weather comes to an end.

  27. I could see the HRRR doing a pretty good job. The future part of the loop matches closely with current radar.

    I did check temps on the lake and it is 70 degrees as the air temps in south central Lake Michigan with a water temp of 69.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Let’s keep our fingers crossed. It normally does a good job, but it is far from 100%.

    1. Is there a like button for this? Haha

    2. DF (EGR) says:

      That would be nice to cool things off for the foreseeable future!

    3. Jeff (Richland) says:

      That run shows MI being the hot spot for today. Doesn’t show Chicago getting anything but earlier it showed them getting nailed. Things can change hourly but the overall general consensus of the runs has showed Muskegon to GR and points south and east having a good shot at storms.

  28. fixxxer says:

    Wheres rj today? Wheres this polar vortex? ;)

    1. DF (EGR) says:

      I’m not sure the fixxxxx and his aliases could survive without RJ.

  29. Hey John (Norton Shores) if you want to get a profile pic on here, use Gravatar. It works great. Make sure you use your email address that you use for the blog here in order for it to work

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Thank you Kyle! :) How do I get the picture on here though?

      1. It will go automatically as long as you are using the same email address as you use for the blog

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Okay I will have to change my email on here then since I got a new email, so I probably won’t be able to post on here for a little while, I will do it tonight when I do not post so that way by morning I’ll be able to post again with the profile pic! Thanks again Kyle! :)

    2. Jeff (Richland) says:

      testing

      1. Jeff (Richland) says:

        Well I added an image to Gravatar and it’s now showing up here, no idea why?

        1. Jeff (Richland) says:

          NM, working now!

        2. I am not seeing it. Maybe it takes a little bit to appear idk

  30. Mark says:

    Bill — tell the folks who make the forecast graphic that today isn’t the 24th, will you?

  31. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    87 in Detroit at 1:30… looks on track for another 90 degree day so far

  32. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Alrighty added my new email, does the profile pic show up?

    1. DF (EGR) says:

      Yep

  33. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Thank you DF and Kyle! :)

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