Cool Pattern ContinuesJuly 24th, 2014 at 2:54 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click on the images to enlarge. The first is the 6-10 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for July 29 to August 2. The second is the 8-14 day outlook for July 31 to August 6 and the image on the right is the NAEFS forecast for July 31-August 6. This is a pattern that has been prevalent since last November – generally cooler than from the Plains east and warmer than average from the Rockies to the West Coast. The mean upper level trough is over the Great Lakes as we end July and start August. Despite our one day of 89° – Grand Rapids is now 3.7° below average for July with an average temperature for the month of 68.9°. I believe that would put us about tied for 6th coldest July ever…and we’re probably going to go below that. The coolest July in G.R. was 2009 at 67.1°. The four coolest Julys ever in G.R. have all occurred relatively recently, since 1992. The warmest July in G.R. was 1921. Manistee is -6.9° for the month and they have a good shot at setting their coolest July ever. Muskegon is -4.2° for the month. As you can see, it looks like no 90-degree days in the next two weeks. The ONLY year when we did not have a 90-degree day in G.R. was 1951 (highest that summer was 89°). That summer was followed by the snowiest year EVER in G.R. The snow came early that winter with the heaviest snowfalls we have ever had in the first week of November.
Also, the JAMSTEC model is forecasting a cooler than average winter for Michigan and much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. Check out the lightning over Calgary, Alberta, Ripkin Stadium near Baltimore and New York City. Storm Clouds east of Seattle. Mississippi waterspout. Severe storms caused widespread damage in Arkansas. If you look at the U.S. severe reports for Weds., you can see the numerous wind damage reports across Arkansas, far eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and NW Louisiana. Those storms knocked out power to over 100,000 customers. There was a scattering of wind damage reports in the East, and some rather unusual severe t-storms in NE Washington, N. Idaho up into Alberta, Canada. About a week left in July and you can still see ice along the shore up in Barrow, Alaska. Wow! Look at the mayfly invasion in Wisconsin! So thick you can see clouds of mayflies on radar! For those on you interested in the index values…the PNA goes very positive next week, the NAO is negative and the WPO and EPO are also negative. All this means some cool air for the Great Lakes early next week.