Cool Pattern Continues

July 24th, 2014 at 2:54 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

610temp.new   814temp.new   NAEFS Click on the images to enlarge. The first is the 6-10 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for July 29 to August 2. The second is the 8-14 day outlook for July 31 to August 6 and the image on the right is the NAEFS forecast for July 31-August 6. This is a pattern that has been prevalent since last November – generally cooler than from the Plains east and warmer than average from the Rockies to the West Coast. The mean upper level trough is over the Great Lakes as we end July and start August.   Despite our one day of 89° – Grand Rapids is now 3.7° below average for July with an average temperature for the month of 68.9°.   I believe that would put us about tied for 6th coldest July ever…and we’re probably going to go below that.  The coolest July in G.R. was 2009 at 67.1°.   The four coolest Julys ever in G.R. have all occurred relatively recently, since 1992.   The warmest July in G.R. was 1921.  Manistee is -6.9° for the month and they have a good shot at setting their coolest July ever.  Muskegon is -4.2° for the month.   As you can see, it looks like no 90-degree days in the next two weeks.  The ONLY year when we did not have a 90-degree day in G.R. was 1951 (highest that summer was 89°).  That summer was followed by the snowiest year EVER in G.R.  The snow came early that winter with the heaviest snowfalls we have ever had in the first week of November.

Also, the JAMSTEC model is forecasting a cooler than average winter for Michigan and much of the U.S. east of the Rockies.  Check out the lightning over Calgary, Alberta, Ripkin Stadium near Baltimore and New York CityStorm Clouds east of SeattleMississippi waterspoutSevere storms caused widespread damage in Arkansas.  If you look at the U.S. severe reports for Weds., you can see the numerous wind damage reports across Arkansas, far eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and NW Louisiana.  Those storms knocked out power to over 100,000 customers.  There was a scattering of wind damage reports in the East, and some rather unusual severe t-storms in NE Washington, N. Idaho up into Alberta, Canada.  About a week left in July and you can still see ice along the shore up in Barrow, Alaska.  Wow!  Look at the mayfly invasion in Wisconsin!  So thick you can see clouds of mayflies on radar!    For those on you interested in the index values…the PNA goes very positive next week, the NAO is negative and the WPO and EPO are also negative.  All this means some cool air for the Great Lakes early next week.

36 Responses to “Cool Pattern Continues”

  1. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

    I’m sure it’s going to be a cold and crappy Winter (most of them are), but I’d bet big money it won’t be as bad as last year’s nightmare.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      That’s a pretty safe bet.

    2. Robert says:

      I just want some summer, please.

  2. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Weather experts what is a Rossby wave? It influences the weather and must work to keep troughs in place right? Anyway, with nothing to push the cooler air mass out, it looks like it will stay cool for a while.

  3. jj. jenison says:

    Average temp for the month seems a little low. 68.9 degrees?

    1. DF (EGR) says:

      All that information is available here:
      http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=grr

      That information is under the Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6) set of data. That average temp looks correct to me for the month, so far, it will go down more.

    2. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

      The average includes the average high and low for the day so if the high was 80 and the low was 50 to average temp for the day is 65.

  4. INDY says:

    Had to get the rake out yesterday we have leafs falling already out at thee YARDofBRICKS!! Fall is here in July!!! INDYY!!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Bring it!

      1. matt says:

        Bring what your waffels, pancakes, and o.j. i feel sorry for your mom go get summer job mooch

  5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep the great news coming Bill!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Go stuff it troll.

      1. DF (EGR) says:

        The blog police says talking to the blog owner is trolling… listen up people…

    2. Alice (Cedar Springs) says:

      I was going to say the same thing, Rocky! The weather today was perfect!

  6. fixxxer says:

    It looks as joe.b and rj colored in those maps.

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I think that I will head up to Manistee and check out the big lake, the casino and the Manistee National Golf Course! Perfect MI summer weather today! Get outside and enjoy the weather people! I love it! Below Normal temps ROCK n ROLL baby!

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Another vacation day? Wish I could be outside enjoying but I have to work like most Americans.

    2. matt says:

      Everyone knows you are not old enough to get into casino and you mooch off your mom.

  8. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Early Sunday slight risk for Mi…?

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      That would be Saturday with the warm front that is expected to be in the area. Another severe risk will likely exist Sunday as well per the GR NWS discussion.

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Yes , I know that is the sat outlook …..hence the question mark meaning Sunday..lol

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      It sounds like higher probalities could be introduced in later updates for the Saturday outlook, so this could very well be extended farther north. As Jeff said it also sounds like a risk could exist on Sunday as well.

  9. Jeff (Richland) says:

    No surprise, will this pattern ever break Bill? This summer has been great, I don’t mind it being cooler than average, but if that leads to a cool Fall and another hard winter, that’s going to be tough for many to deal with after last years horrible winter.

  10. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    This is great news for me! We’re heading up to northern Michigan tomorrow for the weekend. The weather looks good outside of a few rain chances. If this pattern continues right into October and beyond, we could have some early (lake effect) snows. This could bring a nasty winter… again. Even a winter lover like me didn’t agree with the cold of the past one. Though having a couple feet of snow on the ground was great. I just wish it came without the -40 some wind chills. Sorry to mention winter. I love warmth and summer too, but it’s not to early to begin worrying about the opposite season.

  11. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    Wow! I would have never known this but Indianapolis has not hit 90 yet! They average 17 – 90 degree days by now. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/cool-end-to-july-forecast-midw/30826895 The link has an interesting graphic showing the lack of 90′s in many cities. By the way… Accuweather’s Inaccurate 45 Day forecast (fail cast) gives 86 as Grand Rapids’ warmest high of the next 45 days… :)

  12. John says:

    Wasn’t aware of a severe risk this weekend, GR seemed to be playing it down last time I looked at a forecast discussion (which was admittedly a couple days ago). Guess we will see.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Up until about the last discussion or two, GR NWS had been indicating, without actually saying it, that they basically had no clue what would happen this weekend as the pattern is complex and the models were all over the place. Models have come into better agreement now.

  13. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Did we have an El Nino in the winter of 51?

    1. Jacob G. says:

      In the winter of 1951-52 we did have a weak El Nino with the record snowfall.

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Similar to this year then. Although i have heard that this may be a stronger El Nino than in past years.

        1. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Nope.

  14. I’m basically right on the edge of the Slight Risk Area for Saturday. Maybe they will move it farther north? I haven’t looked much into this set up

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      I’m sure they will, but we have Sunday too, so we could be in the slight risk both days. Here’s hoping! If we could get storms like I had a couple nights ago more frequently, I would be very happy! :)

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Even if we aren’t in the risk we still have a chance. Doesn’t matter what they say all the time

        1. Yes but the NWS did a good job on this last event saying the most action would be along and west of 131. Doesn’t mean they will be right again though

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