Sunny, Warm Weekend, Cooler Middle of Next Week – MaybeAugust 5th, 2014 at 9:31 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
We have a 5-day stretch of mostly sunny, warm and dry weather from Weds. to Sun. Temperatures will start near 80° on today and rise to the mid-upper 80s by Sun. PM. Here’s (until they clear the graphic) storm total rainfall from GRR NWS. 24-hour rainfall ending at 8 pm this (Tue.) evening: 1.39″ Mt. Pleasant, 0.77″ Battle Creek, 0.51″ Benton Harbor, 0.42″ Lansing, 0.30″ Byron Center, 0.23″ Holland, 0.19″ Big Rapids, 0.14″ Kalamazoo, 0.03″ Muskegon Airport and just a trace in Grand Rapids (airport). The GRR NWS at the Ford Airport has had only 0.10″ of rain since July 15th! Lansing has had 2.51″ of rain in the last 5 days after getting 4.86″ in July, 6.4″ in June and 4.24″ in May. Lansing has had slightly more than double average rainfall since 6/1. The next front arrives about next Monday PM/Night and it looks weaker than earlier. We may turn slightly cooler (recurving typhoon in the Western Pacific often generates a trough over the Eastern U.S. in 5-7 days. That’s what you see in the graphic on the right here…the NAEFS 500 mb heights – blue is lower than average heights (trough) and pink/red indicates higher than average heights (ridge and in summer that usually means warmer than average surface temperatures). The map on the left in the 8-14 day temperature probability map from CPC (Climate Prediction Center), showing the cool over the Great Lakes. The NAEFS map in the middle here also has cool air for the same 8-14 day period (Aug. 13-19). Right now, I do expect overall relatively warm weather for much of August and a good part of September, before a significant (more so than average) cool down in latter October and November (with snow snow in Nov. – more so than in recent years).
The overnight run of the NAM has 1.3″ of rain for G.R. Thurs. night into Fri. – it’s wrong. The GFS plot would start rain Sunday night and the European (best IMHO right now) has showers and t-storms Monday with about 1/2 to 2/3rds inch of rain. All public schools on Hawaii’s Big Island, Maui, Lanai, and Molokai to be closed Thursday due to Tropical Storm Iselle. They must have a different school year there.