Showers on the Way, then CoolerAugust 11th, 2014 at 12:56 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The Storm Prediction Center has all of Michigan in the General Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday PM/Night. They don’t even mention Michigan in the discussion. The most interesting part of he discussion is the possibility of isolated severe weather in Oregon and far northern California. The overnight run of the NAM (caribou) gives Grand Rapids 0.13″ of rain from 3 pm to 8 pm this afternoon (better chance of showers late than early) and then 0.25″ from 4 am to 4 pm Tuesday with temperatures most of Tues. in the mid-upper 60s. Then we’re dry from Tues. night thru most of the rest of the week. The GFS-plot gives G.R. 0.50″ of rain Monday PM/Night and 0.03″ Tues. with much of Tues. only in the low-mid 60s. Then it gives G.R. 0.03″ with a wave on Thurs. (that’s pretty iffy) but other than that dry thru Sat. and then a chance of a shower or t-storm next Sunday/Monday. The overnight run of the European model gives G.R. 0.24″ this (Mon.) PM/Night and 0.12″ on Tuesday with highs in the low 70s…then mid-upper 70s for highs thru Fri. and low-mid 80s by Sunday. The European has it dry from Weds. thru Sat. – so hope we get the 1/4″ to 3/4″ that we are forecasting. I’ll side with the higher rainfall totals for now. G.R. officially has had only 0.10″ of rain since 7/15! I’m still looking for warmer than average temperatures for August 17-25 and probably beyond. Sept. could be a nice month – I’m still looking for earlier snow in Nov. I’m still leaning toward a cool winter (not as cold as last winter) with the main storm track a little south and east of Michigan (east coast snowstorms?), but we’ll get one or two in the mix and lake-effect.