Showers on the Way, then Cooler

August 11th, 2014 at 12:56 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

day2otlk_1730    The Storm Prediction Center has all of Michigan in the General Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday PM/Night.  They don’t even mention Michigan in the discussion.  The most interesting part of he discussion is the possibility of isolated severe weather in Oregon and far northern California.   The overnight run of the NAM (caribou) gives Grand Rapids 0.13″ of rain from 3 pm to 8 pm this afternoon (better chance of showers late than early) and then 0.25″ from 4 am to 4 pm Tuesday with temperatures most of Tues. in the mid-upper 60s.  Then we’re dry from Tues. night thru most of the rest of the week.   The GFS-plot gives G.R. 0.50″ of rain Monday PM/Night and 0.03″ Tues. with much of Tues. only in the low-mid 60s.  Then it gives G.R. 0.03″ with a wave on Thurs. (that’s pretty iffy) but other than that dry thru Sat. and then a chance of a shower or t-storm next Sunday/Monday.   The overnight run of the European model gives G.R. 0.24″ this (Mon.) PM/Night and 0.12″ on Tuesday with highs in the low 70s…then mid-upper 70s for highs thru Fri. and low-mid 80s by Sunday.  The European has it dry from Weds. thru Sat. – so hope we get the 1/4″ to 3/4″ that we are forecasting.  I’ll side with the higher rainfall totals for now.  G.R. officially has had only 0.10″ of rain since 7/15!   I’m still looking for warmer than average temperatures for August 17-25 and probably beyond.  Sept. could be a nice month – I’m still looking for earlier snow in Nov. I’m still leaning toward a cool winter (not as cold as last winter) with the main storm track a little south and east of Michigan (east coast snowstorms?), but we’ll get one or two in the mix and lake-effect. 

35 Responses to “Showers on the Way, then Cooler”

  1. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

    One of the nicer blog posts I’ve read in here a while. A normal winter and lots of warm temps for the next 6 weeks.
    Keep it coming….

    1. matt says:

      @tom + a million

  2. Irish coffee says:

    “1 or 2″… that would be music to snow-haters ears! ;-) I’ll take the over on that ; maybe 1-2 per month Nov – Mar w/ perhaps 7-8 major LES! PLEASE and thank you!

    1. Irish coffee says:

      ps- as of now, I would predict temp. 1.5 below avg for Dec- Feb(based on ENSO,solar,PDO, ETC

  3. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

    Interesting cluster of weak storms has been creeping (and trying to reach us) for the last two hours…but just can’t seem to get here.

  4. fixxxer says:

    here we go again, woodtv catering to the winter nuts talking about winter already.

    1. Irish coffee says:

      Catering is a good biz! ….stay CALM and frosty bro;)

  5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Hit 87 yesterday. 11 straight 80+ day. Looks like we get a minor dip then another long warm stretch.

    Lake Huron water temps are back to average

    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/gif/avgtemps-h_1992-2013.gif

    Lake Superior basically average now too:

    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/gif/avgtemps-s_1992-2013.gif

  6. INDY says:

    Hey Bill just wanted to say Hi!!! We could use some rain the drought is on out at thee YARDofBRICKS grass is brown, I have 2 fun weekends coming up camping looks like the weather is going to be perfecttt!!! Bill don’t forget kiss them bricks party is Aug 31 we will be having one BIG fire bring your party chair take care ……..INDYYY!!!!

  7. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    We’ve already gotten 1.08″ of rain since last night. Our biggest rainfall here all summer. My sprinklers can finally get a break.

    1. DF (EGR) says:

      Please send some this way :)

  8. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    The past two years meteorologists have called for early snows in November and it was never happened. In fact, we had a thunderstorm outbreak last November 17th! Eventually they will be right though, so maybe this will be the year. Not that we need to talk about it during the summer or anything

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      +1

    2. DF (EGR) says:

      Very true Nathan. Maybe the same this year since its the same prediction?

    3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Yes with the early snow and cold forecast coming ever year that means my forecast of a warm and less snow winter will come some day (and it will its just a question of when?)
      SlimJim

  9. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I’m praying for some precip here and for everyone else who needs it . Plz plz Mother Nature ..!!

  10. DF (EGR) says:

    I hope this rain teasing us makes it here… we need it badly. Back from vacation in Port Huron which was awesome, the weather was wonderful last week there.

    The “long warm stretch” has us at +0.2° above normal, its early august and normal. It will be interesting to see how abnormal we are after this week.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      With the coming cool days much of Michigan will fall below average as there are several locations that are still below average this month
      SlimJim

  11. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

    Some much needed rain is falling in Zeeland and on up the lakeshore! Such a blessing!

  12. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    It was a rather warm night here last night in fact one of the warmer overnights of this summer so far. I had a low here at my house of 68° (so far) and its cloudy and 70° right now. But the cloud cover is very heavy and there is rain not too far to the west of here. With the first 10 days of August 2014 now in the record books the month is running almost exactly average here in GR +0.3° (72.2°) and only a trace of rain so far. Here are some other locations and where they are at after the first 10 days.

    Muskegon -0.8° (70.2°) 0.03” Lansing -1.9° (68.9³) with 2.51” Kalamazoo -1.7° (70.3°) 0.22” Jackson -0.9° (69.4°) Detroit -1.6° (71.4°) 0.15” Saginaw +0.6° (70.3°) 1.12” Flint +0.9° (70.8°) 0.02” Gaylord -0.2° (64.9°) 0.00” Alpena -1.7° (65.1°) trace Traverse City +0.4° (68.9°) trace and Marquette -1.3° (63.7°) 0.00”
    While the temps across Michigan have ranged near average to just above and below average one item that stands out is that outside of Lansing and maybe Saginaw it sure has been dry so far here in Michigan this August and much of Michigan is still not seen a 90° day as of yet!
    SlimJim

  13. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    There is some thing falling from the sky here, it seems wet not sure what it is yet….wait yes its just starting to rain here not!
    SlimJim

  14. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Tom Skilling talking about some potential 90′s the back half of August:

    http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/potential-for-late-month-heat-could-boost-seasons-90s

    Paul Douglas from Minneapolis also talking about a late August heat wave brewing:

    http://www.startribune.com/blogs/270688891.html

    1. INDY says:

      lolololololololo!!!! INDYY!!

    2. DF (EGR) says:

      Interesting stuff. Everyone in the great lakes are more than overdue for some 90′s.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Even those in different time zones.

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      My bro lives in Chicago, and he’s been enjoying the lack of 90s this summer too.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Three 90 degree days so far for Chicago… same as 2004 and 2008.

        In 2000, Chicago had zero 90′s at the same.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I know, nothing worse than hot days in the concrete jungle.

  15. DF (EGR) says:

    The rain looks like its drying up………. I hope that southern stuff makes it up here.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I know, hopefully later today into tonight we get something.

  16. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Finally getting some much needed rain, got about .7″ so far! :) much more than was forecasted.

  17. INDY says:

    No 90′s this summer maybe next summer!!! INDYY!!

    1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

      We have only heard this about 1k this summer,I am glad we haven’t had any 90′s so far

  18. Smidge Rogers says:

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  19. Mr.Positive says:

    Why is bill talking about winter in august? I don’t recall him talking about summer at any point this past winter.

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