Wednesday

August 20th, 2014 at 10:29 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Duck - U.P. on 2014 trip   This was an extremely friendly duck that came up to us while we parked down by the lake.  It probably would have crawled in the car if I had let it.  It was obviously used to being fed by humans.  I didn’t have an duck food.   It’s Weds. am – cloudy, light showers every so often.  We had breakfast and are packing up to hit the road.  Again the low clouds are brushing the top of the higher hills.  The trails are quite muddy with lots of puddles, but the waterfalls are more like spring than late summer.  The people that run the kayak business said they were 6 weeks behind their normal open to the season this year with the ice in Lake Superior.  They said they were paddling around icebergs on Memorial Day.  They said the last ice was in a cave that they checked daily and the first day without ice in the cave was July 2nd!  The heat is coming.  The GFS-plot has 88-88-89 for G.R. for Sun., Mon., Tue.  and the Euro. would give us low 90s on Monday.  The Euro. gives G.R. another +1″ of rain Thurs. PM – early Fri.  The GFS-plot gives G.R. another 0.95″ from Thurs. night thru Fri.

Also:  “The average temperature on Earth has barely risen over the past 16 years.” is the most important sentence at the link.  With a cold PDO and an inevitable flip of the AMO to cold phase – the “pause” should continue and the global warming alarmists (those who forecast stuff like this) will keep searching for the “missing heat”.  Note that the NCDC global temperature reports conveniently eliminate (grayed out on the graphic) the Antarctic – where there has been record cold this winter and the Arctic, where they will have either the coldest or 2nd coldest summer since 1958.    Aurora seen from the Space StationAbove average (monsoon) rainfall in Arizona this late summer.

66 Responses to “Wednesday”

  1. Hope you had a good time Bill!

    As for the weather coming up, it looks as though over these next 2 days the heaviest rainfall totals will be over West Michigan according to this map

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif?1408549051997

  2. Brad says:

    Why the “pause?” Why aren’t we returning to century averages (or below century averages) like the deniers predicted?

  3. DF (EGR) says:

    Some of these clouds look like they’re going to let the rain loose any moment.

  4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep the facts rolling! The mini ice age rules! Oh and in case you have not heard – GR will not be hitting 90 degrees this weekend! Mark it down!

    1. Barry in Zeeland says:

      What is your constant obsession with 90? Can you really feel a difference between say 89 degrees and 90 degrees? Does something special happen at 90? There have already been people on here that have reported 90 or better at their house, but no mention of anything spectacular happening. We’ve hit 90 here 3 or 4 times this year and the only thing I felt was way to hot. The one benchmark really worth noting is when we hit triple digits like the past several summers, and it’s fine by me if that doesn’t happen for a long time.

      1. fixxxer says:

        Rj is a moron. Thats his problem.

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Yes its true I doubt anyone can tell the difference between 88° 89° or 90° BUT the fact of the matter is that at the official reporting stations of Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Lansing, Kalamazoo it has not reached 90° or better yet this summer and in Grand Rapids case that has only happened once and that way back in 1951. So like it or not its something if that mark is not reached.
        SlimJim

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Excellent FACTS Slim. Keep up the good work as we all try and ignore fixxxer and his clones!

    2. matt says:

      School will be starting soon hopefully you wont tell those worn out lies like you do on the blog. Just the facts thanks for listening

      1. yooper4021 says:

        What?

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          He is sick, so don’t try and understand his delusional rants!

      2. matt says:

        Have you been practicing telling those stories about those golf trips, you wouldn’t want to get caught in a lie on the playground like you keep getting caught on the weather blog. Also make sure your mom pack your zebra cakes for lunch. We all know how cranky you get when your mom hides them.

  5. MichiganWon says:

    Hey Rocky, I’d be miserable to if I had to wake up everyday and be you, but you really do need to relax. You attack and go out of your way to alienate everyone you can with your every post. Why? You really need help dude. The other day you tried to go at it with Nathan, and you’ve been here long enough to know he’s still in high school. Nobody needs or wants to hear from you. Everybody knows what weather you prefer, you’re a broken record or have other issues, so if you don’t have anything else to bring to the conversation…..just shut up already.

    1. yooper4021 says:

      Sheesh dude, take a deep breath and relax.

      Please speak for yourself, not for “everyone” and “everybody” on this blog.

      And speaking of bringing something to the conversation, how about something weather-related?

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Excellent points and keep up the good work!

        1. matt says:

          You like excellent points here’s a few, get a job, stop lying about your fantasy gold club, and man up and stop mooching off your mom. Thanks for listening.

      2. MichiganWon says:

        Hey Hooper, thanks but I stand by my comments, and simply will never understand how ANYBODY can defend this clown. Also, there are people who enjoy the blog as much as anybody by just being a reader. Somebody not “bringing something” to the conversation doesn’t disqualify one knowing his only objective is to alienate people. Participants who say nothing bring more value than he does every time he says anything.

  6. Wow I see 6/10 comments on here really are not even worth reading, but continue going at it, its a daily process anyway.

    As for the weather, I am noticing an increase in the humidity today. Areas down by Indianapolis will be in the Mid 80′s today, so the warmer air is not far off and will continue building north. Looks like areas east of 131 have a shot at a shower or thunderstorm today. A few have developed down in St. Joseph and Branch County. Looking like a stormy Thursday is on tap tomorrow, as well as into Friday. I may just end up around average or above by the end of the day Friday. My currently rain total for August stands at 3.29″ so far.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Only 6/10?

      Slow day. :-)

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Notice how all the aliases appear at the same time? ;)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Who knew? fixxxer and his clones all appear out of thin air as soon as I post one comment! INCREDIBLE! He needs to get a life and fast!

        1. MichiganWon says:

          You’re a bigger clown than i thought. Please give credit to each of us that think you’re a joke.

  7. John (Norton Shores) says:

    From the SPC for tomorrow, the see text outlook includes mostly everyone west of 131 for tomorrow.

    …UPPER MS VALLEY…OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA…

    THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM
    A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
    VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT. SOME OF
    THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER…THE WARM
    SECTOR SOUTH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH ONSET
    OF DIABATIC WARMING SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. THERE WILL BE
    SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP OR ONGOING STORMS TO
    REINTENSIFY NEAR THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT AND WHERE
    MOIST AND UNSTABLE INFLOW FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WILL BE
    MAXIMIZED. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT
    WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THERE IS CONCERN THAT AS STORMS
    REINTENSIFY/REDEVELOP THEY COULD EVOLVE INTO A SEWD ADVANCING
    ORGANIZED CLUSTER…POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.
    HOWEVER…UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF MORNING STORMS AND WEAK
    FORCING ALOFT WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN A MORE
    ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. NEVERTHELESS…THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
    MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

    1. Looks like we have a shot at being put into a Slight Risk Area, depending on the ongoing convection and how it effects the instability. Sounds as though even if we get a little sunshine storms may take off nicely in a moderatly unstable environment. I hope we stay in the 5% area, we seem to do better in that, or no risk area at all.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        The afternoon NWS update also sounds interesting, they are talking about the possibility of an episode or two of severe weather in the area Thursday night with MCS/S.

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    It is looking better and better! Just some more weather facts! Imagine that!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Computer-generated predictions/guesses are facts? Talk about counting chickens before they’re hatched. LOL

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        The CPC ROCKS! Very accurate lately baby!

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          It’s perceived accuracy is irrelevant. It’s still not a fact.

          But your enthusiasm is admirable.

        2. matt says:

          Go play wii golf than come back here and post some more lies about your Grand Haven golf club and your imaginary ski trips.

        3. Barry in Zeeland says:

          Well, if the CPC rocks and is very accurate, enjoy Nov-Jan:

          http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4

        4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Well Barry listen up! The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day have been very accurate. As for a prediction for 4 months from now – good luck! The RDB model could do better! Imagine that!

  9. INDY says:

    Can’t hang with fixers and his puppets on Bills blog anymore!! I am having fun camping and drinking sprites with a hot fire tonight !!! 80 days and we will have lots of snow !!!!!!!! ARE U READY??? INDYY!!!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I am ready to ROCK n ROLL! Bring it on! The more SNOW the better!

  10. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The NWS has now increased the precipitation amount to 1-2″ and included the heavy rainfall wording in their grids for Thursday night, could be interesting come tomorrow night.

  11. Sounds like the best thunderstorms and severe weather will be down by I-94 as is usually is. Partucuarly from Saugatuck down to Coldwater to the south. Hopefully we can get some good storms here along 96 as well, but my gut feeling says 94 with be the storm hogs tomorrow

  12. Jerry Hoag says:

    It did seem to get some responses when I put this on here the other day. But this is pretty much the only thing I got a comment on. In case you missed it, this is for you!!!!

    The ones who answered many thanks for your well wishes!!!!! I am so looking forward to the move so soon!!!!! 2 months and counting of not sooner. I will visit the site when I am down south.

    Maybe some good storms comings later tomorrow into the weekend and next week, with some good warmth!!!!! WAHOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Here is my posting from a few days ago to the ones who didn’t get it:

    Well Fellow Bloggers, I am off from here for awhile!! I seem to get skipped over in comments, because I use capital letters I get snapped at, most of the people on here are just rude as hell. Sorry for language.

    But I have given updates on my time frame for move and such and none of you seem to give a crap. I thought I was making some friends on here. I guess not. Good luck on your weather blogs. Peace out.

  13. Jerry Hoag says:

    This all sounds very good for west Michigan!!!!! Maybe for the Grand Rapids area will get in on the action!!!!! It seems like it doesn’t matter the time frame either for this!!!!! Hopefully Grand Rapids will get it too!!!

    THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND
    SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS IA/IL
    SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

    SEVERAL JET CORES/SPEED MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
    OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48
    HOURS. DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ERN UPR MI ALLOWS
    AN INFLUX OF WARM/UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH EXTREMELY
    HIGH PWAT AIR OF AROUND 2.2 INCHES.

    THIS PATTERN VERY MUCH SUPPORTS THE CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING WHERE
    STORMS DEVELOP AND REPEAT IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FASHION. THE
    ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN PLACING HIGHEST QPF THURSDAY
    NIGHT OVER SW MI… AND AM HEAVILY FAVORING ITS SOLUTION AT THIS
    TIME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER REGARDING LOW LEVEL JET
    PLACEMENT/BEHAVIOR WHICH WILL DICTATE WHERE BEST QPF SETS UP.

    GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
    WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN A NW TO SE CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY MINNEAPOLIS
    TO MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO TO KALAMAZOO. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED
    TO BE 35 TO 45 KTS WITH MU CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. MCS ACTIVITY
    TRACKING SE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR MAY CONTAIN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
    WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN EPISODE OR TWO OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF I-96
    THURSDAY NIGHT.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Sure will be an interesting day to watch the weather tomorrow!

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        I’m not holding my breath but this could be one of those that sneaks in under the radar so to speak and packs a decent punch. Seems we need to just direct the low level jet this way and many of the other elements seem to be some what forecasted according to the models. Hopefully the pot of stew comes together as we are way overdue. Looks like we could have a few more chances next week after the ridge flattens out and pushes east of us. As always we shall see.

    2. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

      Thanks for info. We were at the fair yesterday when a storm came thru in the afternoon. It poured so hard. There was only one crack of lightning & thunder once but at the same time. Much too close.

  14. Start work at Target tomorrow! but only for 4 hours. Pretty nervous for the first day! But Ill be out before the storms come so that’s good haha!

    1. Red in Allegan Co. says:

      Have fun Kyle. My daughter worked at Target for a bit. There’s really nothing to be nervous about. I bet you will do just fine.

    2. Rob's Wife (Plainfield at 3 Mile) says:

      Congrats on the job. I worked at Target when I was 21 to 22. My experience there was really good. May I ask what department you’re working in?

      1. I will be a cashier and collecting shopping carts out in the parking lot. It may get a little chaotic around Christmas in the checkout lanes. And black Friday!

  15. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Wow the heat sure looks like it will be building with a pattern switch finally! Hopefully it warms up the lake for more LE snow this winter. Not looking forward to the heat though because I can’t handle it well.

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      It gets too hot and humid the last few years I have a little trouble breathing. So it has been nice with upper 70s to about the mid 80s this summer. But..looking at it this way…a few days of heat is better than a few months of heat.

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        I agree, it’s been a fairly comfortable summer so far. These next several days will be the hottest stretch so far. Lets hurry up and get it over with.

    2. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

      I don’t like the heat & humidity either. This summer has been beautiful so far. I think about next Wed we will cool off some with less humidity till then the a/c is back on.

      1. SBPortage002 says:

        Oh well, we get the heat and humidity a time or two every summer. When nature throws it at you…drink ice cold lemonade (or your beverage of choice).

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        +100 trillion!

  16. Kaladin says:

    I read your climate change link as well as the referenced journal article from Nature Geoscience, which can be found here: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/08/140819113002.htm?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=post&utm_term=temperature%20rise&utm_campaign=Climate&__surl__=Ig0bG&__ots__=1408544023581&__step__=1

    It seems to me the MOST important sentence is – ” He believes that global warming will recommence as soon as solar activity, aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere and weather phenomena such as El Niño naturally start returning to the values of previous decades.”

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      La Nina and El Nino have see-sawed back and forth as long as we have been keeping track: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml We are currently in a (very) weak El Nino – not the “Super Nino” that some were expecting (hoping for, actually). Like I said…Arctic ice is increasing, Antarctic ice is increasing, solar activity has been diminishing (and could remain low for decades), the AMO will eventually go into cold phase…not the recipe for “global warming” to increase (without a little algorerithmic help). If you are waiting for a “global warming” acceleration without political manipulation – don’t hold your breath.

  17. Well the interactive rainfall futurecast on Fox 17′s website has a dominant band of rain from Norton Shores down to Charlotte, MI. then spreading out to Kalamazoo then to the MI/IN border. That is a big change from earlier when Kalamazoo SW was in the dominant rain band. This futurecast tends to be higher on rain, but it gives you an idea heavy rain is on the way. This says 3-5″ of rain. That would be a lot if that happened! But I think that may be high. Sorry to post from Fox 17 on here, just thought people may want to know!

    1. 3″ I don’t think is impossible, some areas got it that much on Tuesday. Sounds like we could get some training thunderstorms from this, which will cause high totals

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      The NWS says 1-2″ of rain for tomorrow night in their grids. They usually don’t put that much into their grids so it could be a very rainy night tomorrow night!

      1. Yep. And If I had to say I think we may see higher than 2″ in some areas, especially where storms keep developing (But that my prediction. I hope we get some strong-severe storms tomorrow!

  18. Brian(Grandville) says:

    The Tigers get another complete game shut out from Porcello tonight, K.C. is winning right now. It’s gonna be quite a race down the stretch in the division this year.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I meant to post this when KC caught up to us.

      http://i.imgur.com/rnMALYY.gif

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        The train wreck the fans never thought was possible with this team, this year. Lots of time left to get it right.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Oh yeah, plenty of baseball left.

  19. Ben Lamfers says:

    Yes Bill I have asked that you state your position on climate change. The label ALARMIST applied to those who believe the earth is getting warmer is a bit much. Weather prediction is not a science it is more of an art.

    I carefully followed your suggested link and found it reasonable. But read carefully the very last paragraph of that link. I quote

    Despite the warming hiatus, Knutti is convinced there is no reason to doubt either the existing calculations for the climate activity of greenhouse gases or the latest climate models. “Short-term climate fluctuations can easily be explained. They do not alter the fact that the climate will become considerably warmer in the long term as a result of greenhouse gas emissions,” says Knutti. He believes that global warming will recommence as soon as solar activity, aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere and weather phenomena such as El Niño naturally start returning to the values of previous decades.

    If correct as to considerably warmer, it will have a devastating effect for humans. It is time to stop playing the ostrich and get the head out of the sand. This is not alarmist, not reading the tea leaves, not reading the astrology charts, but REAL.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Then I guess we’re all doomed, oh well, what are you gonna do? Bill is on vacation, lets let him enjoy it.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Ben – I believe the Earth has gotten warmer (mainly from 1980 to 2002) and at least a small part of that is due to greenhouse gases, but the nightmare scenarios (water up the armpits of the Statue of Liberty?) is unfounded, alarmist nonsense. You say “if correct…it will have a devastating effect”. Sure, and if my 11-year old grandson keeps growing at the rate he’s growing, he’ll be 10-feet tall by the time he’s 60 years old! But odds are he’ll stop growing. There’s a chance someone is stuffing chickens in my car right now…but the odds are so small, I am willing to risk the chance and stay here in my nice motel room, rather than check my car.

      You have to look at relative risk. We’ve already spent 165 BILLION dollars on “global warming”. We’ve killed a lot of private sector jobs and added some taxpayer funded jobs. CO2 emissions have been falling in the U.S. and are at a 20-year low. CO2 emissions have been skyrocketing in China – without a murmur of protest from those who want to destroy thousands more private-sector jobs in the U.S. They are congratulating themselves on killing the Keystone Pipeline and the thousands of jobs it would create. The Canadian oil will be burned in China, releasing more CO2 in the air than if it was burned in the U.S. That’s not progress.

  20. Bnoppe says:

    Wee in slight tmw in SW michigan with possible upgrades to 30%

  21. ray says:

    al gore used the 1970,s as his decade to compare temperatures for his global warming theory. that was the coldest decade in the 20th century with 3 of our coldest winters and cool summers. if he had used the 1980,s, we would be much cooler than normal. he also has 2 very large houses and a private jet which consumes lots of energy. we also have twice as many people than 100 years ago in the world. some of us have always tried to conserve energy.

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