Severe Risk – Fri. AM update

August 21st, 2014 at 2:34 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook   The overnight storms so far (2 am) have been moving thru Chicago and NW Indiana.  Some minor wind damage at Peotone IL and Noblesville, IN.  We are in the General T-Storm Outlook.  I haven’t had much time to look at weather.

Here’s SPC watches, mesoscale discussions and storm reports. Here’s regional radar, so you can watch the storms develop and move east.   Here’s Storm Reports from Weds., including EF0 tornado in Michigan.

Here’s the GRR NWS forecast discussion.

Also, relatively (for them) small earthquake in Californialightning above Busch Field in St. Louisthunderstorm moving into Ferguson MOCOOL TIME-LAPSE of the storms coming into St. Louis.  Tropical Storm may develop and head through the Caribbean toward the U.S. and Gulf of Mexico.

 

119 Responses to “Severe Risk – Fri. AM update”

  1. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

    Had to come at some point.
    I’m just hoping for a nice and comfortable September before all the crap arrives in November.

  2. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Tonight looks like it could be awesome!!! Bring on the storms!!!

  3. INDY says:

    Wow for the first time this summer we may be able to say its hot outside!! INDYY!!

  4. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I’m looking forward to some warm weather , this summer has been great..! Extreme southern Michigan should keep an eye on the weather today / tonight , could get interesting for some. Forecast still seems a bit shaky on how this one will end up playing out . Curious to se the next update. TBD.. :)

  5. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    As I mentioned last weak with the hazards outlook this could be a very wet night for many south of GR and especially 1- 94 area / the usual suspects. Some of the elements with this synoptic setup look fairly impressive , depending on where and how it takes shape will determine if and where we see SVR wx punch from this system . The GFS seems to keep most of the activity south of GR , however the nam is further north so at the very least keep an eye on this system as it has the potential to cause some minor damage . ( wind / heavy rain ) There is some hints to possibly upping the outlook categories from the SPC .

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Delete the word ” punch ” ..

  6. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    WPC Rain outlook : Days 1-2

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-2.shtml

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Impressive looking.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Nice. I’ll take some more, some of my grass is still brown.

  7. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    I’ve only had 5 below average days in August so far.

    If the latest CPC forecast holds after this hot spell, it looks likely I will finish meteorological summer above average (June – August).

    Tom Skilling now forecasting several days in the 90′s for Chicago with heat indices up to 105 degrees!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Technically true. But as previously discussed, the credibility of Flint’s historical averages are highly questionable.

      Do you seriously believe that at this point, Detroit’s monthly average August temperature is 67.8 degrees and Flint’s is 69.5 degrees?

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Detroit continues to be warmer than Flint for August

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Precisely my point. They SHOULD be warmer than Flint. So how can you accept that historically, Flint is 1.7 degrees warmer than Detroit?

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I’m not following, Mark.

          Detroit is warmer but has higher averages… thus, Detroit is still below average.

        3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I made an error in my original calculations. Here are some area historical averages temperatures for the period of August 1st – 20th:

          Detroit: 72.6
          Holland: 71.7
          Grand Rapids: 71.6
          Kalamazoo: 71.4
          Lansing: 70.4
          Flint: 69.5

          My point is that since Flint’s historical averages are so much lower than the surrounding areas, Flint will always appear to be warmer than the surrounding areas.

          I cannot explain why it is this way. I’m just trying to get a better understanding.

        4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          No problem for the error. I was wondering what you were saying.

          Good stuff, although I’m pretty sure Flint’s averages are close to Saginaw’s as you’d expect. No big anomaly in my opinion.

          If you really want to get picky, I find it odd that GR’s averages are higher than Kalamazoo – a city 50 miles to the south – the same distance to the water.

          Now that seems strange!

        5. DF (SE Mich) says:

          All urban heat island effect with GR and Kzoo.

        6. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Good points, as well.

          I guess we’ll just have to accept the historical data at face value.

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Time to ignore the troll anytime me, my, I, or Flint are mentioned.

        1. INDY says:

          Love it!!! lolololo!!! INDYY!!

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          No wonder the blog is more cordial when DF isn’t around to bash

        3. DF (SE Mich) says:

          LOL, from the holocaust name caller… nice try.

        4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Wow, do you like to come on here just to bash now? Bringing up a link from over 2 months ago? Really?

          That was a link to President Obama’s statement if you don’t recall.

        5. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Oh yeah, very cordial back then when Obama made you say it…

  8. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Had a tornado/funnel cloud touch down over here yesterday. Some good pictures!

    http://www.wxyz.com/weather/weather-news/possible-funnel-cloud-sightings-in-richmond-township

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I heard about that. Thanks for sharing the link.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Nice pictures!

      I suspect that there was quite a downburst Tuesday afternoon – the area around Patterson Ave, south of 136th St (basically, the Allegan/Barry county line) has an awful lot of big-tree damage compared to the rest of the area. I’m talking 6-8″ limbs coming down out of healthy hardwood trees; or 4″ saplings being snapped in half.

  9. INDY says:

    Wow again for the first time this summer in Michigan we can say it maybe hot feel it to believe it!! Great time to be camping!! Sprites for breakfast! INDYY!

  10. DF (SE Mich) says:

    I’m hoping the warm weather warms up the lake for my labor day vacation! First modest heat wave of the year. Not too impressive when we might not make 90°. Record highs are well into the upper 90′s and normal highs at lower 80′s for this time of year.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Heat indices of 105 would be impressive for Chicago if Tom Skilling’s forecast proves accurate!

      Talking about dew points in the low 70′s

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Absolute bottom criteria for a Heat Advisory, for one day, and not close to Heat Warning criteria. Not impressive in my book, unless you’re talking relative to this cold year of course. Chicago has had two months above average this year, August is -1.1° so far.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Also, normal high for GR is 80 and falling to upper 70′s shortly – so not lower 80′s for the forecasted period we are talking about.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        80° would be lower 80′s and it is that for the next 10 days… it was 81° yesterday. Definitely what I’m talking about, not sure about “we.”

  11. INDY says:

    First time in Michigan it may get hot this summer stay tuned!! INDYY!!

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Many locations in Michigan have had several days 88 or warmer so far in 2014, so that statement is false.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Any data saying 88° is the official hot number for Michigan? GR was 88° on the 3rd yet 1° above average, doesn’t seem hot to me… unless of course you are being anecdotal relative to the cold year.

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Saying its “hot” is relative as to where you are. While 88° can be hot if you are out in the sun and there is little or no wind. But here in southern lower Michigan 88° for the most part would not all that unusual in the summer time but a high of just 4° warmer would be less normal and could be called “hot” Now if you are out in the sun and there is little or wind I am sure you would feel very hot.
        SlimJim

  12. INDY says:

    If its only going to get 88* this weekend that’s not hot Low to mid 90′s are hot!! Again weather fact this could be the first time in Michigan its gets hot this weekend !! No 88* about it!! INDYY!!

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Lol…That was a funny debate over what could be semantics.. What’s “Hot “and what’s not…! Or what’s relative of course. But I have to agree with Indy on this to what is typically is considered a hot day for the majority and 90′ s + would be just that for most. Especially on a weather blog discussing temps , personal relative temps kinda have to be ignored as I was beginning to think 15 degrees was a heat wave over this past winter . Lol ( no that’s still

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Speaking as someone who despises humidity – it’s all in the dewpoint ;-)

  13. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    We will have to wait to see how the month of August ends but here are both the average temperature so far this August and departure from average so far this month for several cities in lower Michigan.

    Grand Rapids 70.1° (-1.4°)
    Kalamazoo 69.4° (-1.9°)
    Lansing 68.0° (-2.4°)
    Detroit 70.2° (-2.4°)
    Flint 69.8° (+0.3°)
    Port Huron 68.1° (-1.9°)
    Saginaw 68.7° (-0.9°)

    When you look at the departures from average one has to wonder why Flint is now running warmer then site was in the past. So either the readings were wrong in the past and are right now or it could be that the readings were right in the past and are not right now but the most likely event was that something changed at the site location.
    SlimJim

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      That’s what I’ve been saying. It’s a head-scratcher, no doubt.

    2. DF (EGR) says:

      Good stuff slim.

    3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Like I said above, Flint’s averages are close to Saginaw’s and much cooler than Detroit, as expected.

      The real crazy one is that GR’s averages are higher than Kalamazoo even though KZoo is 50 miles south and same distance to the water.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I really believe that temps are affected by the “urban heat sink”. GRR is downwind from a large industrial complex. AZO is downwind from a residential/agricultural area (cooler). I don’t know where Flint’s temp is measured – but look at it via Google Earth. That will often tell the tale.

        1. Michael g (se GR) says:

          Flint’s station, wherever it is, is downwind from blight.

  14. JoeT says:

    Bring it! My grass needs the rain and the heat will get the farmers a good 2nd or 3rd hay cutting!

  15. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Ok the CPC’s long range guess for September 2014 is now out and here is their take on September

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

    And here is the rest of the fall outlook

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

    So it looks like in the CPC opinion ever thing is near equal
    SlimJim

  16. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    And here is the CPC’s outlook for late fall and into the upcoming winter

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

    And then the winter season

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4

    If this plays out it could be a cold dry winter in our parts we shall see.
    SlimJim

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      I would be fine with a warm fall! :)

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        I should add late fall, as this is for late fall lol!

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Agreed! Best time of the year to be above average, and by a lot would be awesome.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      SJ – I don’t see where it looks “cold”? I see normal or above normal – both of which look OK to me after last winter….LOL!!

  17. Swatz Zoo says:

    Interesting that if this verifies FDM has NOT been on board with webs up at all this week, but my body aches DEFINITELY is telling me a thing or two. Which is why I am surprised FDM isn’t up in webs, maybe she’s broken ;-)

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Lol , that’s funny Swatz.

    2. fixxxer says:

      Maybe you ache cause ur getting old swatz. I sure do. ;)

      1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

        LOL, whoever said 40 and fabulous!? It’s all down hill after 40!

    3. JoeT says:

      I feel it in my shoulder and lower back today also!

    4. SS (Pwell Area) says:

      It sure is muggy!!!

  18. fixxxer says:

    Typical, another below average, cloudy day.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      The forecasted high is 83. The average high for today is 80.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Don’t forget the warmer than average low as well

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The fixxxxx speaks and the sun comes out, thanks.

  19. Just got back from my first day working at Target! I worked 5 hours today. Now I do not go back until Tuesday to be trained on the cash register. I will only work the register every so often. I will mainly be the cart collector for the majority of the time there.

    1. Rob's Wife (Plainfield at 3 Mile) says:

      Cashiering was really fun, I thought. I worked in soft lines mostly, unless an extra cashier was needed. It is basically folding clothes over and over again, and fixing the shoes. I would have much rather worked in the hard lines, but I never had the opportunity to do so. It will definitely get insane once the holiday season rolls around!

    2. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

      Kyle, collecting carts can be Hard work in the Winter. Hope your in Good Shape :}

      1. I am plenty in shape to do that. And yes holidays and Black Friday will be pretty chaotic but I can handle it

        1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

          I figured you will do very well @ your new JOB! get a good pair of work boots for the snow,Ice & slush !

        2. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

          Don’t forget your warm gloves too.

  20. Mr. Negative says:

    And…the Metro Cruise is ruined for 2014.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      There’s only a 20 and 30% chance of rain – maybe they’ll luck out? (Although walking around in the heat and humidity in parking lots doesn’t exactly sound fun…)

  21. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Tonight is looking more and more like a possible bust. Milwaukee NWS is talking about drastically cutting back pops for tonight and the HRRR shows virtually no development of any storms.

  22. INDY says:

    Still not a lot of heat today it feels good having a cold sprite and camping all night with a hot fire going keep the rain from going over us!! Will it heat up?? Sprites will tell!! This could be Michigan’s first hot days of all summer this weekend!! INDYY!!!

  23. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    The slight severe area has been moved almost entirely out of Michigan now

  24. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Are we stil expecting plain rain or is that out of the grid too?

  25. Jeff (Portland) says:

    Looks like the hottest week of the summer is still on tap. Like i said last week our first 90 of the summer is coming this weekend. Enjoy everyone :)

  26. Is only plain rain coming now? Any thunderstorms for tonight?

  27. Meags says:

    If you ask me…
    this summer has been a overall chilly summer.
    Not 1 90* day yet and only a maybe for next week.
    it will be interesting, but I would like some 90* days — maybe like 4-10 in a row… then I would say at least we had a hot week of summer..
    but honestly… this summer has been not that warm at all.
    there are people that are closing their pools already and the leaves are starting to change in the UP.
    Look for another chilly, chilly winter. Just please not as much snow!!!!!!! :) :) :)

  28. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Just got some medium to heavy rain, only got about .10 from this round, but it sounds like more could be on the way for tonight.

  29. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Today’s CPC has now removed any colder start to September that it had been showing. Looks like around average temps after the hot spell:

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

  30. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Just had a nice downpour and still only a high temp of 79° today. Looks like the rest of the rain is breaking up for now.

  31. Michael g (se GR) says:

    80* for the high here. Saturday half marathon is going to be a scorcher. :-!

  32. So much for the 1-2″ of rain today.

    1. Michael g (se GR) says:

      Wasn’t supposed to be 1-2″ of rain today.

      1. Uhh yeah it was. NOAA had 1-2″ in there forecast for Me. Some areas that didn’t get much rain this week should make 90 very easily with the drier ground

        1. SBPortage002 says:

          We were never going to see 1-2 inches. They have done that before but we got significantly less. Like hardly any.

        2. Seems that’s sometimes how it works. When a lot if forecasted we get less and when less is forecasted we get more. But that’s not always the case

        3. SBPortage002 says:

          Such is true…but my feeling it wasn’t going to happen today/tonight proved to be correct.

        4. Michael g (se GR) says:

          Ummmm no it wasn’t. That was forecast for tonight. All of the NWS discussions are archived. Find the one that mentioned heavy rain for today.

        5. SBPortage002 says:

          Thank you for the correction.

        6. Oops I should have wrote it different. I meant for tonight not today. Thanks for the correction!

  33. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    See it went from 90% chance of rain for tonight is now @ 30%

  34. I wonder if GR will actually make 90 or end up at 89 as we have before. We shall see. It would be cool to not do it and have it be the fire time since 1956 I think it was?

    1. Or was it 1951? Can’t remember

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        1951

        1. Thanks Nathan. We shall see what happens!

        2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Yeah hopefully we don’t hit 90 and break that record!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      There are no 90′s in sight! Mark it down people!

  35. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

    ROFL, Maybe FDM isn’t broken after all and I’m just getting old! No webs up all week and not even once today for this!

  36. Cliff(Scotts) says:

    models are all over the place with this, who knows what will happen. There is clearing off to the northwest is western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. Have to wait and see if anything pops up tonight with the LLJ

    1. So we’re supposed to possibly get more rain? According to Kyle underwood it’s sounded like a dry night with a slight chance tomorrow. I guess we shall see. Ill periodically monitor radar in case

  37. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Some much for the heavy rain and storms! Ya right!

    1. matt says:

      So much for you getting a summer job while school was out.

  38. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Sorry I’ve been busy today, but wasn’t it supposed to rain a lot tonight?

  39. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    >>>>BREAKING NEWS>>>>> The RDB winter forecast has been posted! Near normal temps and well above average SNOWFALL! 110 to 130 inches! Get ready to ROCK!

    1. matt says:

      In not so breaking news…you’re still a moocher that makes up stories about ski trips.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Ya right do you have any more BS to post?

  40. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    matt = fixxxer = brain dead! Who knew?

    1. matt says:

      Who knew you mooch just the facts thanks for listening

  41. Once a marine always... says:

    Very humid in allegan one of muggiest nights I’m a clean freak breaking light sweat vacuuming moping house looks like very warm weekend must get last of wood cut split covered by end of this month bring warm weather on Semper fi

    1. matt says:

      Who knew you mooch just the facts thanks for listening

    2. matt says:

      Who knew you mooch just the facts thanks for listening

  42. GunLakeDeb says:

    My turn to whine: I HATE THIS HUMIDITY. God bless whoever first figured out how to build an air conditioner! Because I will be cowering in its dry coolness for the next several days….

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      You and me both Deb. Here come the dog days of summer. Humid lows around 70 for the next several days = yuck.

  43. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Although the rain today was a bust (btw Bill wasn’t working so not his fault) we do have several more chances in the upcoming days. Everyone will likely get the rain they deserve, so hang in there!

  44. Jack says:

    On August 22 in Southwest Lower Michigan…

    8/22/1936
    The Dust Bowl summer of 1936 produced more record heat, with a high of 98 degrees at Grand Rapids and 94 at Lansing.
    8/22/1964
    Tornadoes struck in Calhoun, Lenawee and Hillsdale Counties. Three people were injured northeast of Battle Creek as a house and factory were damaged.
    8/22/1966
    A tornado struck Bellevue in Eaton County, damaging a house, garage and two cars.
    8/22/2001
    Severe weather and flooding hit Allegan, Ottawa and Kent Counties. Damaging winds hit Hudsonville, Plainwell, Dorr and Grand Rapids. Flooding occurred in eastern Van Buren and Kalamazoo Counties where three to five inches of rain is estimated to have fallen in less than 6 hours. Several streets were closed by flooding in Oshtemo flooded. Some businesses had to pump water out of their stores in Kalamazoo during the height of the storms.

  45. Resourceful Nana says:

    Woke up. :( I’m seeing lightning, but radar shows no rain nearby. :( Northern Illinois and Indiana seem to be getting more, again.

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