Wednesday

August 27th, 2014 at 3:22 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

shn glerl   This is a picture from the GLERL camera on the lighthouse at S. Haven (from NOAA Coastwatch).  The anemometer at the lighthouse here recorded a peak wind of 64 mph as the storm came thru and that was right about the time this picture was taken.  You can see the whitecaps and the rain moving in as you look north.  The chance of rain today isn’t zero, but it’s only about 10%.  Dewpoints will be significantly lower.  So, after a rather damp start with a heavy dew and a few patches of fog, it should be a nice day with partly sunny skies and more comfortable humidities.

Climate notes:  G.R. has had 7 consecutive days with high temperatures of 80-85.  We have had 3.41″ of rain this month, but just 6 days this month with measurable rain.  The last day below average was Aug. 17.  The average wind speed for August has been 7.0 mph and we’ve had 63% of possible sunshine.  Temperature departure from average for August 1-26:  Grand Rapids -0.1, Muskeogn -0.5,  Ludington -2.6, Manistee -3.5, Holland -0.7, Kalamazoo -0.1, Lansing -1.1, Jackson -0.2, Ann Arbor -0.2, Cadillac -1.4, Detroit -0.9, Benton Harbor -2.1, Houghton Lake -0.3, Howell -0.7, Alpena -1.4, Gaylord -1.4, Jadkson -0.2, Mt. Clemens -0.5, Pellston -0.2, Pontiac -0.0, Port Hope -2.6, Flint +1.8.   Today we have 13 hours and 24 minutes of daylight…that’s down from 15 hours and 21 minutes at the Solstice.

It’s been a cool summer in Barrow, Alaska.  Barrow was 2 deg. cooler that average in June with a highest maximum temperature of just 47.  July was 2.8 cooler than average with a summer maximum of 57 on the 22nd.  August is running 1.7 deg. cooler than average.  They had 13 days with at least a trace of snow in June, 8 days with a trace or more of snow in July and 3 days in August.  Farther inland, Fairbanks has been warmer and wetter.  They’ve had 4 days that have reached 80 this summer, with a summer maximum of 87 on 7.6.  Fairbanks has had 11.53″ of rain this month, compared to the average rainfall for the period of 5.71″.    Phoenix, Arizona has had just four days this month with high temperatures above average.    The temperature reached 100° in St. Louis on Monday.  Hurricane Marie has spun some swell swells into California with Long beach reporting waves up to 10 feet.

The overnight run of the European model gives G.R. dry weather until late Thursday night.  It prints out 0.19″ for Friday, 0.55″ Saturday PM, 0.39″ Saturday night – we get a little break – then the model gives us another 0.50″ late Monday into Monday night.  The GFSX model has these percentage predictions for measurable rain:  10% Thurs., 65%, Fri., 80%, 74% Sat., 65% Sun., 61% Mon., 56% Tues.   Still no 90° for G.R. on the European run.    Have a great day!

38 Responses to “Wednesday”

  1. INDY says:

    Winter is coming!!! Time to get the shovels back out!! INDYY!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes and we will be getting hammered this winter! Bring it! The BEST YEAR of weather keeps ROCKING!

    2. fixxxer says:

      Jesus indy quit trolling.

      1. Michael g (se GR) says:

        Is THAT Indy’s first name?!?

  2. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

    Sunrise looks nice today

  3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    How did all of the GR 90 degree hype work out for Monday and Tuesday! Not even close! What a joke! Face the facts! No 90′s this summer!

    1. DF (EGR) says:

      It was definitely interesting to watch it play out. Muskegon was actually a degree below normal yesterday.

    2. matt says:

      Hows the mooching off the parents going and playing wii golf . Have you got your lies straight for the kids on the playground.

      1. yooper4021 says:

        How’s the weather, Matt?

        1. matt says:

          Excellent. How about you yooper?

    3. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Kalamazoo hit 90.

  4. fixxxer says:

    Worse than 2009.

  5. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Question for Slim or one of our other stat people here…with the sweltering humidity we’ve been having lately, what is the record for highest dew point around this area. The past couple days have felt just awful with the dp up near 80, just walking outside made you sweat.

    1. DF (EGR) says:

      Wow, I’m not sure where that data would be. If slim has that I’d love to know the low record as well. He might have records on heat index and then you can check the dew point.

    2. DF (EGR) says:

      I found this probability table from the NWS for dew point on labor day. Since 85°+ has a percent I have to assume its happened sometime in the past.
      http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index_MEAN/hitable_GRR.html

      I’d also assume July/August days have a higher probability since that is the warm time of year. I give up now :)

    3. Michael g (se GR) says:

      Highest I personally remember seeing in GR is 81*.

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        That’s more then likely either the highest or near the highest.
        SlimJim

      2. GunLakeDeb says:

        I remember a 77-degree dewpoint – ugh.

  6. DF (EGR) says:

    It’s been a while since we had a normal morning temp and it feels chilly out :)

  7. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Looks like nice weather over the next few days, highs in the upper 70′s, lower humidity levels, I call that nice weather! :)

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      +1

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      My favorite kind!!

  8. kevin. w says:

    Ya Bill its been pretty nice here in Alaska but everything looks like its ready to change to fall. Have had some nice days and 3/4 days of rainy weather as well.

  9. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Barry and DF wanted to know what the record highest dew point that was recorded in our area was. Well to start off with the DP reading of 77 with an air temp of 85° is very high and is one of the higher readings I have seen around here. I was in Tampa one time and the Dew Point was reported as being 83 there with a temp in the upper 80’s and that was much worse then it was here the other day. Now as for the highest its been in GR I am still looking but for the United States here is some data

    A dew point of 91 °F (33 °C) was observed at 2:00 p.m. on July 12, 1987, in Melbourne, Florida. A dew point of 90 °F (32 °C) has been observed in the United States on at least two occasions: Appleton, Wisconsin, at 5:00 p.m. on July 13, 1995, and New Orleans Naval Air Station at 5:00 p.m. on July 30, 1987. A dew point of 95 °F (35 °C) was observed at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, at 3:00 p.m. on July 8, 2003. Dew points this high are extremely rare occurrences
    SlimJim

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I would look to see if any record on the DP on July 13th 1995 can be found for GR.
      SlimJim

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    OK I don’t know if it is a record for GR but at 5pm on July 13 1995 the DP in Grand Rapids was 81 with an air temp of 97° MUCH worse then the other day
    SlimJim

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Its not for our “area” but is a very complete list of record dew points for the Twin Cities

      http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/natural_resources/climate/twin_cities/dewpoint_msp_records.pdf

      Based on this I would say that the 81° dew point was near if not the record for Grand Rapids.
      SlimJim

  11. The grass out there now is a lush green. Havn’t seen my yard looking this good in a long time. Looks like more rain for Thursday night through Saturday night. We are in the 5% area during the day on Friday. Looks like we will add even more rain to the charts during this period.

    I stand at 4.27″ for the month of August so far. Average for my area is 3.59″ so I am now 0.68″ above average for rainfall this month. Big comeback from the lack of rain we had through late July and early August. Areas along 94 could use some rain now.

  12. Another thing to note is I have not seen corn as tall as it is out there now since 2010. Rain has been plentiful for corn.

  13. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    While out for my walk I seen a pure white wooly worm. I had to look it up but this is what the little creature may mean for our upcoming winter.

    http://valleywx.com/2014/07/23/white-wooly-worm-warning/

    And

    http://weather.about.com/b/2013/09/04/a-rare-white-woolly-worm-sighting.htm

    If this is a indicator then that would make Rocky a happy camper, me not so much.
    SlimJim

    1. Debbie (Jenison) says:

      I saw one in my driveway this past weekend. I was wondering what it was.

  14. fixxxer says:

    I dont care what the weather does at this point. Im about as sick as a dog with the flu. :(

  15. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The NWS mentions the possibility of severe weather for next Tuesday, but at this point it’s anyones guess and I think we all know when they mention it this far in advanced it doesn’t seem to happen.

    Here is the long term outlook from the NWS

    .LONG TERM…(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
    ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

    THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
    FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
    TUESDAY.

    LARGELY THE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
    CONTINUITY WHILE NOT EXCELLENT IS DECENT. WHAT IS HAPPENING IS WE
    HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTHERN
    STREAM TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS IN TANDEM
    HEAD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HELPING TO
    MOVE THINGS ALONG IS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO WESTERN
    ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. THAT SYSTEM REACHES OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
    WEEK AND SHOULD BRING STRONG DYNAMICS WITH A GOOD RETURN FLOW OFF
    THE GULF OF MEXICO.

    SO HERE IS MY PROBLEM…THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A SHEARING OUT
    BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW. THESE TEND TO BE OPENED UP BY THE MODELS TOO
    QUICKLY AND MORE THAN LIKELY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY
    INTO SATURDAY THAN ANY OF THE MODELS SHOW IT TO BE. EVEN SO BOTH THE
    ECMWF (12Z AND 00Z PLUS THE GFS 12Z-18Z AND 00Z) ALL SHOW THE
    1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AIMED AT SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
    FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND
    1.8 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATION FROM NORMAL. THE LOW
    LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY INTO
    EARLY SATURDAY BUT IS AIMED AT SOUTHERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT…WITH
    THE GFS SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT 06Z SUN OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN.
    ADD TO THIS THE CIPS ANALOGS NEARLY ALL OF THE 18 ANALOGS FOR THE
    FRIDAY INTO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH+
    QPF VALUES. I COULD SEE LOCALLY WELL OVER THAT AMOUNT BY SUNDAY
    MORNING.

    WHAT I AM THINKING IS WE WILL HAVE TWO PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT
    RAINFALL… FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LEAD WAVE THEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
    THE MAIN UPPER WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ONE SHOULD BE
    THE WETTEST.

    ONCE THAT IS ALL DONE WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM ALASKA. THAT
    WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA STARTING MONDAY WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
    TUESDAY. THIS COULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
    GIVE THE ALL THE RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND THEN AGAIN LATER
    MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WE MAY BEGIN TO HAVE HYDRO ISSUES.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      They can’t even get the weather right the same day, take yesterday as an example or last Thursday when we were supposed to get flooding rains and we did not get a drop of rain. It’s anyones guess what will happen this weekend and next week.

  16. DF (EGR) says:

    Man it is nice out! This can continue straight through October :) Since it was so nice I took the kids on a bus adventure. We took the bus from EGR to downtown, then jumped on the new Silver Line BRT to the Beltline Bar for lunch. The Silver Line is awesome, fast and packed on the trip back (in the middle of the day). Good job GR and The Rapid!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Love the Beltline Bar!

      1. Jack says:

        Love Their ALL MEAT Wet Burrito with Double Cheese….YUM….. :-)

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