Heavy Rain Iowa to the U.P.August 28th, 2014 at 3:33 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
This is the 7-day rainfall forecast from the Hydrometeorological Center. Note the heavy rain from Iowa to Northern Michigan. There is also some heavier rain along the Gulf Coast…much of Texas sees some rain as does south Florida – while the west stays dry. The overnight run of the European model gives G.R. 0.07″ Thurs. night, 0.12″ Friday, 0.11″ Saturday and 0.46″ Monday with a nice t-storm in the late afternoon/evening as a front comes thru. The GFS-plot has 0.04 Thurs. night, 0.10″ Fri., 0.41″ Sat., and 0.22″ Monday. The NAM (car.) has no rain for G.R. Thurs. night, 0.07″ late Fri. and 0.42″ Sat. PM and night. I favor the heavier European rain totals for late Sat. into Sat. night. If you’re looking for a dry day this weekend – pick Sunday – if you’re looking at the chance for severe weather – the best chance will be late Monday. It’ll be interesting to see if SPC puts Lower Michigan in the Slight Risk Area for Monday PM/evening. I would. As that system pushes east, we should have a nice day next Tues. Today will be a nice day…partly to mostly sunny with PM temps. in the mid 70s – enjoy the day and watch me on TV later today for my updated forecast – I’ll be updating the blog as well.
Morning update from the Storm Prediction Center regarding severe weather potential for Monday PM: “WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST AT THE START OF DAY 5 ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA…AS THE STRONGEST UVV SPREADS NEWD INTO ONTARIO WITH TIME. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND THUS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WOULD APPEAR TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.” I think we still need to pay attention to Monday PM for the possibility of severe weather in the S. Great Lakes (inc. Michigan).