Heavy Rain Iowa to the U.P.

August 28th, 2014 at 3:33 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

qpf   This is the 7-day rainfall forecast from the Hydrometeorological Center.  Note the heavy rain from Iowa to Northern Michigan.  There is also some heavier rain along the Gulf Coast…much of Texas sees some rain as does south Florida – while the west stays dry.  The overnight run of the European model gives G.R. 0.07″ Thurs. night, 0.12″ Friday, 0.11″ Saturday and 0.46″ Monday with a nice t-storm in the late afternoon/evening as a front comes thru.  The GFS-plot has 0.04 Thurs. night, 0.10″ Fri., 0.41″ Sat., and 0.22″ Monday.  The NAM (car.) has no rain for G.R. Thurs. night, 0.07″ late Fri. and 0.42″ Sat. PM and night.   I favor the heavier European rain totals for late Sat. into Sat. night.  If you’re looking for a dry day this weekend – pick Sunday – if you’re looking at the chance for severe weather – the best chance will be late Monday.  It’ll be interesting to see if SPC puts Lower Michigan in the Slight Risk Area for Monday PM/evening.  I would.  As that system pushes east, we should have a nice day next Tues.  Today will be a nice day…partly to mostly sunny with PM temps. in the mid 70s – enjoy the day and watch me on TV later today for my updated forecast – I’ll be updating the blog as well.

Morning update from the Storm Prediction Center regarding severe weather potential for Monday PM:  “WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST AT THE START OF DAY 5 ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA…AS THE STRONGEST UVV SPREADS NEWD INTO ONTARIO WITH TIME. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND THUS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WOULD APPEAR TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.”   I think we still need to pay attention to Monday PM for the possibility of severe weather in the S. Great Lakes (inc. Michigan).

49 Responses to “Heavy Rain Iowa to the U.P.”

  1. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

    If I’m not mistaken, the last few Labor Day weekends have been rain-free with nice weather (but at my age, my memory isn’t that great anymore).

    I’m not surprised that our luck has run out on that. Had to happen eventually.

  2. Jen in Middlevile says:

    Labor day weekend will be our second camping trip with our new and first, travel trailer. The first trip, 3 out of the 4 of us were battling stomach flu like symptoms. It was pretty miserable. I don’t anticipate the rain will make this trip anything like the last but it would’ve been nice to be mostly dry the whole time. I’ll pack lots of mad libs and hope I get signal to keep checking the blog.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Just getting over a respitory/stomach bug myself. Was miserable.

      1. Michael g (se GR) says:

        WERE miserable implies that you are no longer miserable.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Have fun and bring lots of umbrellas :-)

    3. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Have fun! We will be camping this weekend as well!

    4. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

      Bring some games & a good book or 2.

  3. John (Norton Shores) says:

    From the NWS HWO

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    406 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

    LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-
    290815-
    ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
    HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
    WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-MASON-LAKE-
    OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-
    GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-
    VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
    406 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
    MICHIGAN.

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT

    THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96
    WITH THE GREATEST RISK NORTH OF ROUTE 10. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
    EXPECTED.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

    PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY
    SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEST
    OF US-131 FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALLY
    HEAVY RAINFALL…RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE THE
    GREATEST RISK FROM THESE STORMS.

    A MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS SEEN FOR
    LABOR DAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
    THE AREA LATE IN THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE A HIGH WIND
    RISK AND THE TREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LABOR DAY.

    $$

    WDM

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Thanks, John – doesn’t look like the best weekend…..

  4. fixxxer says:

    Crap weather is expected as we move forward. Doesnt shock me.

  5. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    There were several areas in northern Michigan that got down into the 30’s again last night

    Cadillac 37°F
    Houghton Lake 37°F
    Pellston 37°F
    Newberry 38°F
    Grayling 39°F

    SlimJim

    1. fixxxer says:

      Cool rules! Right bill?

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        That’s right! You finally said something that was correct! Congratulations!

    2. DF (EGR) says:

      Wow. Chilly night. Lots of above normal lows coming though with the rain and clouds, highs right around normal. It should be nice.

  6. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Although the 7 day rainfall forecast shows the heaviest ran out of our area, most of us are still in the 2″+ area. Looking forward to the rain and storms, just hope it isn’t a wash out this weekend.

  7. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Bill, what does 0/11″ mean that you typed for the Saturday European precip total? You said you favor it so curious what it is saying.

    1. DF (EGR) says:

      The / is next to the . on the keyboard. :)

      1. Jeff (Richland) says:

        Right, but Bill said he favored the heavier total of the European and .11″ is far from heavy.

  8. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Very nice stretch of mild weather I’m having. Last cool day was almost 2 weeks ago, and the trend looks like it will continue into September.

  9. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    Thinking after this weekend I”ll be putting hoses and sprinklers away till next spring :(

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      That’s a bad thing?

      1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

        I hate watering the yard, but i also hate winter.

  10. Barb says:

    What does the Labor Day Mac bridge walk look like? I’ll be heading to the cottage this weekend to walk the bridge.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Ooooh – bring rain gear. The graphical forecast says you have a 70% chance of rain, with thunderstorms “likely”. Being on a big steel bridge in a thunderstorm strikes me as a not very good idea….

      1. SBPortage002 says:

        Reading their forecast, it appears maybe that the walk can get in rain free. Calling right now for partly cloudy Sunday night. So crossing fingers it will be ok for 7 a.m., which is when i will also be walking the bridge.

        1. SBPortage002 says:

          They say it may be dry thru late morning but it is four days out and so they recommend rain gear also, just in case.

  11. Jack says:

    FROM NWS GR : On August 28 in Southwest Lower Michigan…

    8/28/1982
    A strong cold front pushes through and temperatures tumble to 36 degrees at Lansing, setting a record low for the date.
    8/28/1986
    There is an autumnal chill as morning lows fall to a record low of 41 at Grand Rapids and to 36 degrees at Lansing, tying the record low set only four years before. Hmmmm, STAY CUEDD….

  12. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    We we have a very good weekend on tap! I don’t believe those rainfall estimates for a second! It will be a great weekend for golfing and cookouts! Mark it down!

    1. matt says:

      Mark it down you’ll be playing wii golf and playing with your sister’s toy stove she got for Christmas ya lazy moocher.

  13. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    We are having INCREDIBLE weather! Keep it ROCKING!

    1. matt says:

      You been rocking those wise tales on playground kid? Go do some homework, math is something you should be good at since you know how to mooch your parents.

  14. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

    Tigers win – great hitting from Alex Avila :)

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Now there’s something you don’t hear every day. :-)

      1. Michael g (se GR) says:

        TWO things we haven’t seen much lately.

  15. Jack says:

    TIGERS START a 8 Game ” Road Trip” Friday !!! GO TIGERS !!!!

    1. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

      +1

  16. Jack says:

    Hello BILL: My Wife wants To Know if The ” Cool” TIE You are wearing This Evening Is NEW? We Will Stay CUEDD…for Your Answer…… TX’S. ;-)

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Tie obsession? LOL

      1. Jack says:

        Naw, Not Me I Only Own 1 Tie . Only wear it To Funerals + Weddings. I’m a T-Shirt & Jeans 24/7 ! Stay CUEDD …I do have a MUSIC OBSESSION…However !! & BTW I’m Still Staying SOBER!!! YAY GOD!!!

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      I’ve worn this tie a time or two already, but not with this shirt.

      1. Jack says:

        OK, SIR THANK – YOU. Also Look into Crystal ” 8″ Ball…… And Give Me Your Best Forecast for ART PRIZE ? Hopefully IT Will Be Beautiful Like The LAST FEW YEARS !! Staying CUEDD…..CHIEF !! Ps. Are you gonna Show up @ INDY’S Sunday ?? Hope So…. ;-)

  17. Mr. Negative says:

    Happy washed-out Labor Day Weekend to all…

    1. Jack says:

      LOL, Thanks for LAUGH…MR.Negative ! OH BTW, Art Van will Be Having ” The Big ONE” SALE on Labor Day !! Hee,heee. Imagine THAT..WHO KNEW ??

  18. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    NWS Northern Indiana mentions supercell potential down in their area for Monday.

  19. Lisa says:

    We are headed to Georgia early in the morning,then headed back early Monday. I sure hope that the weather isn’t dicey from there to here while we travel!

  20. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Monday’s are my scheduled day off. So just another 2 day weekend for me.

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