Updated Severe Weather Outlooks

September 1st, 2014 at 11:36 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook  The Day 3 outlook for Thurs. shows a Slight Risk Area over much of Wisconsin and the U.P.  We’ll have a chance of a t-storm from Weds. night into early Friday.  Gusty winds will be the primary threat.  Th maps here for severe risk for Day 1 (on the left), Day 2 (in the middle) and Day 3 (on the right) should update automatically as SPC adjusts their severe weather forecasts.  There was wind damage in Mt. Pleasant on Monday.  Here’s severe reports and rainfall reports from N. Lower Michigan and Southeast Michigan.  As of late morning, there are some showers in N. Indiana and another areas of showers and storms in far NW Illinois that may clip far SW Michigan.  I’ll update this afternoon/evening.   Sullivan, IN, reports 3.65″ of rain as downpours continue for Midwest.

Monday night model data:  The European gives G.R. 0.69″ of rain from Thurs. night into Fri. evening.  We’d be dry and cooler for the coming weekend with highs down in the low 70s.  The NAM gives G.R. 0.22″ Weds. night and 0.21′” Thurs. PM into early Friday – with a high of 89.3 on Thurs. (probably our last shot at 90).  It’s also dry and pleasant for the coming weekend.   The GFS plot has just 0.14″ (but looks underdone) with low-mid 80s Thurs., low 70s Sat. and mid 70s Sunday.  Plan on a nice weekend.

Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map. Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven, Here’s the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion.

150 Responses to “Updated Severe Weather Outlooks”

  1. Mike Geukes says:

    SPC DAY 1

    …LOWER MI/SERN WI TO MID MS VALLEY TO SERN KS/NERN OK…
    A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE
    UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE FORECAST
    PERIOD…REACHING ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
    EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS /60-90 M/ ARE
    FORECAST TO SPREAD THROUGH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER GREAT
    LAKES…30-60 METER FALLS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN WI AND LOWER
    MI PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. MEANWHILE…AN UPSTREAM
    SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SPEED MAX ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
    THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
    MIDWEST AND SRN GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

    1. Mike Geukes says:

      A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
      TO EXTEND FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA INTO
      CENTRAL KS AT 12Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE TO A POSITION FROM
      ERN UPPER MI THROUGH SERN IA INTO SERN KS AND NORTH CENTRAL OK TO
      THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
      BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD…ENHANCED PRIMARILY BY
      ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
      STORMS MAY ALSO BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK ACROSS ERN KS INTO CENTRAL/
      SRN MO WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL
      MAY OCCUR WITH THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY…THOUGH GREATER TSTM
      COVERAGE AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
      SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER TODAY.

      STRONGEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SERN KS/SWRN MO
      AND OK WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S. AS A
      RESULT…INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE TRAILING
      PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WHERE THE ERN EXTENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
      CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER
      KG/. DESPITE WEAKER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
      DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING…DUE IN PART TO EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE
      DEBRIS…MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM MO TO
      LOWER MI.

      NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FROM SERN WI INTO LOWER MI AND ERN
      IA TO INDIANA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF
      THE COLD FRONT AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ATTENDANT TO
      EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. A 50-60 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING
      THE LEAD TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR FOR THE
      POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
      MEANWHILE…TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK-BUILD SWWD THROUGH MO TO SERN
      KS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LOW-LEVEL
      WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED TO SLY INTO SERN KS…NERN OK AND SWRN MO
      ENHANCING CONVERGENCE INTO THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
      BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS. STRENGTHENING WLY MIDLEVEL
      WINDS ACROSS KS/MO BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN STRONG BULK
      SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE STRONG
      INSTABILITY SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
      WIND GUSTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
      ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

  2. Shaei says:

    As i suspected, tornado risk is almost zero here, and we’ll be lucky to see an ounce of anything. Don’t get your hopes up too high, we’ll be lucky to see a passing sprinkle. Who would have thought! (is that how it goes?)

  3. Shae says:

    As i suspected, tornado risk is almost zero here, and we’ll be lucky to see an ounce of anything. Don’t get your hopes up too high, we’ll be lucky to see a passing sprinkle. Who would have thought! (is that how it goes?)Shae

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Sounds good to me.

      1. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

        And me as well.
        I don’t get high on death and destruction.

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        I’m just thinking of our kids. School starts tomorrow so I’d prefer today to be nice out.

  4. Jack says:

    Ahh Bit of Weather History From NWS GR :: On September 1 in Southwest Lower Michigan…

    9/1/1953
    A heat wave that began in late August continued into September, with record highs of 97 degrees at Grand Rapids and 96 at Lansing. The 95 degrees at Muskegon tied the record high for the month there.
    9/1/2009
    September begins with temperatures more typical of October. Lows include 41 degrees at Muskegon, 36 at Ludington, Hersey and Baldwin, and 35 at Harrison. Cadillac fell to 32 degrees for the second morning in a row, and Leota in Clare County fell to 30 degrees. HAPPY LABOR DAY TO ALL….Stay CUEDDD 4 Storms in The PM…. ;-)

  5. Mike Geukes says:

    SHORT TERM…(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
    ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

    MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS DETERMINING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
    TODAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FEEL THE THREAT FOR
    SEVERE WEATHER IS THERE TODAY…BUT IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY BY ANY
    MEANS. THERE ARE FACTORS BOTH FOR AND AGAINST SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
    HOWEVER…THERE IS ENOUGH GOING FOR IT TO CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
    THREAT.

    IN TERMS OF THE PARAMETERS THAT ARE GOING FOR THIS EVENT…WE HAVE A
    STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
    RESULT IN SOLID WIND FIELDS…30-35 KNOT LLJ…40-55 KNOT MID LEVEL
    JET RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 KNOTS THIS
    AFTERNOON. SO…WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
    AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION. SURFACE DEW
    POINT SHOULD SURGE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST PLACES THIS
    AFTERNOON. ALSO…SOLID 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING FROM 15Z
    THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

    THE QUESTION MARKS WITH THIS EVENT ARE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS
    PIVOTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR…AS WELL AS THE AREA BEING
    IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. HENCE…THE BEST
    DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. INSTABILITY IS A QUESTION
    GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT WILL BE TRYING TO PRESS IN
    FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE EVENT MAY GET GOING
    BEFORE PEAK HEATING. FEEL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
    WITH MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD PROVIDE DECENT CAPE VALUES THOUGH ON
    THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

    SHORT TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALL SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
    SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
    EVENING (NOON THROUGH 800 PM). FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM STORMS
    TODAY IN OUR AREA WILL BE STRONG WINDS GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS IN
    PLACE. NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY MEANS BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING STORMS
    THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. THE MODELS ALSO
    SHOW SOMEWHAT OF LAKE SHADOW TO THE CONVECTION…BUT THIS MAY BE
    MORE RELATED TO OUR LOCATION SOUTH OF THE BEST DYNAMICS.

    OTHERWISE…THE SHORT TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET. ANY STORMS THIS
    EVENING SHOULD WORK SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
    REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY…BUT FELT THE
    THREAT WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO GO DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
    SHOULD BE DRY WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Well it sounds if someone may (may is the crucial word here) get some action. But if it doesn’t hit someone’s backyard, Bill’s Blog will light up once again with FAIL, ANOTHER BUST, SPC/NWS SUCKS, SEE I TOLD YOU SO, WE NEVER GET ANYTHING, WORST SUMMER EVER, TOO MUCH HYPE, etc.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        It can’t be the worst summer ever, because this has been the BEST SUMMER EVER, which followed the BEST WINTER EVER! This is best stretch of weather for one complete year that I can ever remember! Keep it Rocking and Rolling!

        1. matt says:

          sure it is because your parent pay for everything and you sit in the basement and play wii all day ya moocher.

        2. fixxxer says:

          too bad kiddo that its a sure bet this fall and winter wont be anywhere near as bad as last year.

  6. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    GR will not be seeing any severe storms and for that matter we will only see a minimal amount of rainfall! GR should see a whopping .1 to .2 inches of rain today! Do not change your outdoor plans!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I agree. Most, if not the whole day should be great. Get out and enjoy it.

    2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I’m thinking to kayak right now so hopefully it holds off.

  7. Look I see the term “Lake Shadow” in text in the discussion. Now I am not sure exactly what it is trying to say in that sentence but if we do get a lake shadow, that will be a 100% but for GR! Lol because we all got to get to know the Lake Shadow for an extended time around here about a month ago ;)

  8. It frustrates me when I see people comment on Bill’s Facebook posts, complaining and basically calling him unintelligent when storms don’t hit their backyard. Then I have to remind myself not everyone is as educated about the weather as we are. Same with today…I appreciate the warning for the potential of what could happen. If it does, I will be prepared, and if not, oh well. I love a good storm as much as anyone else, but I’m not going to act as if the meteorologists failed us in some way if it doesn’t happen.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Well said.

  9. DF (EGR) says:

    It is raining in south haven, good work Bill :)

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    We are off to a somewhat warm and humid start to fall 2014 here at my house its now 76° here at my house and a DP of 74°.
    SlimJim

  11. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Happy Labor day and welcome to September. With meteorological summer of 2014 is now in the record books. June was the warmest compared to average here in GR +1.8° (70.2°) and there was 5.15” of rain July was much colder then average and came in at -4.1° (68.4°) with 4.41” of rain and August was a very average month temp wise +0.1° (71.0°) and there was 3.68” of rain. And of course there were no 90° days recorded in much of lower Michigan. Now we shall see what September and the rest of fall of 2014 will bring us.
    SlimJim

    1. fixxxer says:

      i can tell you what it will bring.

  12. fixxxer says:

    sure looks like rain to me here. sad that summer is michgans shortest season and we sure got the shaft this year compared to the last 3.

    1. Michael g (se GR) says:

      It’s three months, just like every other season. In fact, since two of the three have 31 days, it’s Michigan’s longest season.

  13. tinainvbcounty says:

    Brief pour down here. May be sorry for that later if the sun comes back out. Beautiful red sunrise this morning!

  14. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    I would love to see some storms today!

  15. Brad (Van Buren) says:

    I’m still sticking to my predictions that anybody near the lakeshore loses out. Still thinking East of 131 will be where the action is, but we shall see.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      That’s a pretty good bet I’d say.

  16. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWAAK! Experiencing extreme feather frizz. According to my calculations, rain will only enhance this effect. #chickenfrizzwimpfeatherfest

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