Do You Know Someone in AZ.or NW Mexico?

September 2nd, 2014 at 2:56 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

  It was pretty amazing to see no tropical storms/hurricanes anywhere in the world on 8/28-31.  Today (9/3) we have  “Dolly” in her last hours as a weak tropical depression.  That storm produced heavy rain and gusty winds in E. Mexico around Tampico.  It will continue moving west into Mexico and fade to nothing.   We also have tropical storm “Norbert”, soon to be hurricane Norbert and it’s going to move north up west of the Baja Peninsula then as it weakens it will curve northeast toward Arizona.  The models show this storm bringing significant moisture up into Arizona and the Southwest, where there could be significant flooding in 3-4 days.  If you know someone in Arizona, NW Mexico or the desert SW – they should follow the weather forecasts very closely this week.  The afternoon model of the GFS through 8-days & the Monday morning European model thru 10-days both show major rains (2-6 inches) for Phoenix AZ.  The storm could bring some early season snow to the mountains of Colorado.

Also, weak El Nino still on track - and remember, weak El Ninos can bring cold and/or snowy winters to Michigan and the Great Lakes states (1977-78). Warmer than average sea surface temperatures south of SE Alaska would argue for continued mean ridge in the west and trough in the East.

Earlier:  Hail as large as golf balls reported in St. Louis by NWS spotter Monday evening.  Law enforcement reported a large tornado on the ground near Cedar Vale, KS, around 8:20 pm CDT Monday evening.   An early season frost is possible in parts of upstate NY and NW New England next Monday (9/8).   1.45″ of rain in 30 minutes in Marlette, MI Monday afternoon.   Sunday 8/31 was the first day since June 29 with no lightning across the state of New Mexico.   Double rainbow plus lightning.

40 Responses to “Do You Know Someone in AZ.or NW Mexico?”

  1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    The rainbow/lightning pic is amazing.

  2. Jilspan says:

    Flooding in AZ is deadly. Heavy rain becomes a fast moving river out of nowhere. There is no vegetation to keep the ground broken up, so the water cannot soak in… it runs off… runs down the streets, down the yards, down the washes, and everywhere there is a low point in the terrain. What may have been your street 3 min ago is now a raging river, and you are driving home from work… you can die. It’s nothing to shrug at there, let me tell ya.

    1. Daniel G says:

      I have friends that have moved to the Phoenix area. They tell me the local streets are the STORM DRAINS. Parking your car out on the street is a fools errand when its raining because the street and your car may be gone by morning!

  3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    +11 yesterday… sure was hot and humid. Had some nice severe storms roll through. Close to 2″ of rain by me.

    NWS Detroit still saying another run at 90 is possible later this week.
    Average high is now 77.

    Tom Skilling says Chicago finished summer right at average.

    Lake Michigan water temps continue to rise even though we are almost a month after the average temperature peak.

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      December -3.1*
      January -6.3*
      February -9.1*

      Winter -6.2*

      March -9.0*
      April -0.4*
      May +0.6*

      Spring -2.9*

      June +1.8*
      July -4.1*
      August +0.2*

      Summer -0.7*

      Sure has been HOT, right Travis?

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Wasn’t talking about the entire 2014 but okay lol

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You are on some serious drugs! Seek medical attention!

      1. matt says:

        And your a serious moocher thanks for listening

  4. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Loving this weather! Very nice day is in store today! :)

  5. Tom says:

    Great to have Rocky back in school today!

    1. matt says:

      @tom +10000000000000000000000

      1. Tom says:

        He will be back when he gets out this afternoon so lets enjoy it while we can!

  6. dereks says:

    Any of this rain going to get into southern California?

  7. Daniel G says:

    Refilling the Colorado River basin! While the dangers are there for those that don’t heed the weather warnings for the ost part nature will refill the reservoirs…or at least help refill them and add moisture to the desert southwest for awhile.
    One thing about these storms, the dry washes far downstream from a given storm can suddenly become a raging river even though its been dry at your location. Campers have been swept away from areas that were high and dry for years.
    And the areas have something called calichie. (spelling anyone?) Its hard pan and hard as rock only inches below the surface. Doesn’t make for ground that easily absorbs rainwaters.

  8. Mike Geukes says:

    CLIMATE REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
    1219 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

    ………………………….

    …THE LANSING MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
    6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…

    CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
    CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1864 TO 2014

    WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR’S
    VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S)
    NORMAL
    ……………………………………………………

    TEMPERATURE (F)
    RECORD
    HIGH 103 07/06/2012
    LOW 26 08/29/1863
    HIGHEST 87 07/22 93 -6 94 07/19
    06/17 07/17
    07/18
    LOWEST 45 08/15 39 6 39 06/03
    06/14
    AVG. MAXIMUM 78.5 80.3 -1.8 79.6
    AVG. MINIMUM 58.5 58.9 -0.4 59.2
    MEAN 68.5 69.6 -1.1 69.4
    DAYS MAX >= 90 0 6.7 -6.7 5
    DAYS MAX <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
    DAYS MIN <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
    DAYS MIN = .01 32 29.7 2.3 32
    DAYS >= .10 24 17.4 6.6 19
    DAYS >= .50 10 6.5 3.5 7
    DAYS >= 1.00 4 2.2 1.8 5
    GREATEST
    24 HR. TOTAL 2.75 06/11 TO 06/11

    SNOWFALL (INCHES)
    RECORDS
    TOTAL MM MM
    TOTALS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    SINCE 7/1 0.0
    SNOWDEPTH AVG. 0 MM MM 0
    DAYS >= 1.0 0 0.0 0.0
    GREATEST
    SNOW DEPTH 0 MM 0 MM
    24 HR TOTAL 0.0 MM

    DEGREE_DAYS
    HEATING TOTAL 64 91 -27 85
    SINCE 7/1 40 35 5 35
    COOLING TOTAL 406 515 -109 515
    SINCE 1/1 447 557 -110 588

    FREEZE DATES
    EARLIEST 10/01
    LATEST 05/10
    …………………………………………………….

    WIND (MPH)
    AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.7
    HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 41/320 DATE 06/18
    HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION 57/310 DATE 06/18

    SKY COVER
    POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT) MM
    AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.40
    NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR 44
    NUMBER OF DAYS PC 40
    NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY 8

    AVERAGE RH (PERCENT) 71

    WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
    THUNDERSTORM 11 MIXED PRECIP 0
    HEAVY RAIN 19 RAIN 20
    LIGHT RAIN 38 FREEZING RAIN 0
    LT FREEZING RAIN 0 HAIL 0
    HEAVY SNOW 0 SNOW 0
    LIGHT SNOW 0 SLEET 0
    FOG 52 FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE 11
    HAZE 26

    - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
    R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
    MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
    T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.

  9. Mike Geukes says:

    CLIMATE REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
    1218 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

    ………………………….

    …THE GRAND RAPIDS MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
    6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…

    CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
    CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1892 TO 2014

    WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR’S
    VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S)
    NORMAL
    ……………………………………………………

    TEMPERATURE (F)
    RECORD
    HIGH 108 07/13/1936
    LOW 32 06/04/1945
    HIGHEST 89 07/22 93 -4 96 07/19
    LOWEST 44 06/14 41 3 41 06/03
    AVG. MAXIMUM 79.6 80.8 -1.2 80.6
    AVG. MINIMUM 60.1 60.3 -0.2 60.2
    MEAN 69.8 70.6 -0.8 70.4
    DAYS MAX >= 90 0 7.8 -7.8 7
    DAYS MAX <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
    DAYS MIN <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
    DAYS MIN = .01 37 29.4 7.6 31
    DAYS >= .10 22 18.2 3.8 19
    DAYS >= .50 8 7.6 0.4 7
    DAYS >= 1.00 3 3.0 0.0 2
    GREATEST
    24 HR. TOTAL 2.08 06/18 TO 06/18

    SNOWFALL (INCHES)
    RECORDS
    TOTAL 0.0 MM
    TOTALS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    SINCE 7/1 0.0
    SNOWDEPTH AVG. 0 MM MM 0
    DAYS >= 1.0 0 0.0 0.0
    GREATEST
    SNOW DEPTH 0 MM 0 MM
    24 HR TOTAL 0.0 MM

    DEGREE_DAYS
    HEATING TOTAL 32 65 -33 66
    SINCE 7/1 19 20 -1 26
    COOLING TOTAL 507 578 -71 588
    SINCE 1/1 560 625 -65 670

    FREEZE DATES
    EARLIEST 10/13
    LATEST 05/02
    …………………………………………………….

    WIND (MPH)
    AVERAGE WIND SPEED 7.7
    HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 38/150 DATE 06/28
    HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION 50/190 DATE 06/02

    SKY COVER
    POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT) 63
    AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.50
    NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR 14
    NUMBER OF DAYS PC 64
    NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY 14

    AVERAGE RH (PERCENT) 72

    WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
    THUNDERSTORM 24 MIXED PRECIP 0
    HEAVY RAIN 16 RAIN 22
    LIGHT RAIN 40 FREEZING RAIN 0
    LT FREEZING RAIN 0 HAIL 0
    HEAVY SNOW 0 SNOW 0
    LIGHT SNOW 0 SLEET 0
    FOG 58 FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE 5
    HAZE 16

    - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
    R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
    MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
    T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.

      1. Mike Geukes says:

        THE KALAMAZOO MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
        6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…
        http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020422.cxus53.html

        1. Mike Geukes says:

          THE HOLLAND/TULIP CITY MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
          6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…
          http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020444.cxus53.html

        2. Mike Geukes says:

          THE BATTLE CREEK MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
          6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…
          http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020442.cxus53.html

      2. Mike Geukes says:

        THE GRAND RAPIDS MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
        6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014..
        http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020418.cxus53.html

        1. Mike Geukes says:

          THE LANSING MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
          6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…
          http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020419.cxus53.html

        2. Mike Geukes says:

          THE MUSKEGON MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
          6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…
          http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020420.cxus53.html

  10. Mike Geukes says:

    THE KALAMAZOO MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
    6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…
    http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020422.cxus53.html

    THE HOLLAND/TULIP CITY MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
    6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…
    http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020444.cxus53.html

    THE BATTLE CREEK MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
    6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…
    http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020442.cxus53.html

  11. Mike Geukes says:

    THE MUSKEGON MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE SEASON, FROM
    6/1/2014 TO 8/31/2014…

    CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
    CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1896 TO 2014

    WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR’S
    VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S)
    NORMAL
    ……………………………………………………

    TEMPERATURE (F)
    RECORD
    HIGH 99 07/06/2012
    08/03/1964
    07/30/1913
    LOW 31 06/11/1972
    HIGHEST 88 06/01 90 -2 92 07/18
    07/15
    LOWEST 44 06/14 41 3 38 06/03
    06/05
    AVG. MAXIMUM 77.4 78.4 -1.0 78.5
    AVG. MINIMUM 58.6 59.9 -1.3 59.6
    MEAN 68.0 69.1 -1.1 69.1
    DAYS MAX >= 90 0 1.7 -1.7 5
    DAYS MAX <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
    DAYS MIN <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0
    DAYS MIN = .01 29 27.5 1.5 29
    DAYS >= .10 19 16.3 2.7 15
    DAYS >= .50 8 5.8 2.2 6
    DAYS >= 1.00 4 1.7 2.3 2
    GREATEST
    24 HR. TOTAL 3.93 06/18 TO 06/18

    SNOWFALL (INCHES)
    RECORDS
    TOTAL 0.0 MM
    TOTALS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    SINCE 7/1 0.0
    SNOWDEPTH AVG. 0 MM MM 0
    DAYS >= 1.0 0 0.0 0.0
    GREATEST
    SNOW DEPTH 0 MM 0 MM
    24 HR TOTAL 0.0 MM

    DEGREE_DAYS
    HEATING TOTAL 80 96 -16 87
    SINCE 7/1 49 30 19 35
    COOLING TOTAL 376 478 -102 479
    SINCE 1/1 393 507 -114 539

    FREEZE DATES
    EARLIEST 10/14
    LATEST 05/04
    …………………………………………………….

    WIND (MPH)
    AVERAGE WIND SPEED 7.5
    HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION 33/190 DATE 06/02
    HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION 47/180 DATE 06/02

    SKY COVER
    POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT) 0
    AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.50
    NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR 22
    NUMBER OF DAYS PC 53
    NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY 17

    AVERAGE RH (PERCENT) 69

    WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
    THUNDERSTORM 19 MIXED PRECIP 0
    HEAVY RAIN 13 RAIN 18
    LIGHT RAIN 34 FREEZING RAIN 0
    LT FREEZING RAIN 0 HAIL 0
    HEAVY SNOW 0 SNOW 0
    LIGHT SNOW 0 SLEET 0
    FOG 49 FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE 11
    HAZE 31

    - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
    R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
    MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
    T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.

    http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020420.cxus53.html

  12. Mike Geukes says:

    THE GRAND RAPIDS MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2014…
    http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020328.cxus53.html

    1. Mike Geukes says:

      THE MUSKEGON MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2014
      http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020329.cxus53.html

      1. Mike Geukes says:

        THE BATTLE CREEK MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2014…
        http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/1409020330.cxus53.html

        1. Jack says:

          WOW, Thanks for All The INFO. Mike !!!

  13. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    My AP Environmental Science teacher sure has a different view on climate than Bill! He basically brainwashes everyone in the school to think that global warming is true (97% of scientists believe global warming is true according to him). He stated that the ice bergs are our greatest source for fresh water, yet they are melting rapidly. He said that by the time he dies there will be no more fossil fuels left on earth. He also said that the decade of 2000-2010 was the warmest decade in recorded history.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      The “97% consensus” is a bogus number based on a relatively small and selected survey by an Australian cartoonist named John Cook. Mr. Cook designed the questions to be so vague and broad that I’m surprised anyone would have answered “no”. I would have answered “yes” to the questions that was asked. Everyone believes that climate changes. We’ve had both palm trees and glaciers in Forest Hills long before people were forced to buy carcinogen-filled light bulbs made in China. I don’t think that anyone doubts there is at least a small amount of anthropogenic input. There certainly is on a local (urban heat island) or regional (the Midwest now planted in corn and soybeans means fewer 100-degree days, warmer minimum temperatures and slightly increased dewpoints and rainfall). We certainly disagree on the magnitude of the warming from a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. We also point to the failure of the climate alarmist computer models and their predictions (“the icecap will be gone in five years”).

      For more on the “consensus”,check out these links:

      http://judithcurry.com/2013/07/26/the-97-consensus/

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/30/the-myth-of-the-97-climate-change-consensus/

      The icecaps are the greatest source of fresh water on Earth. The icecap at the South Pole is at a near record extent (http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png) and more than 2 standard deviations above average. The Antarctic icecap has been growing since the mid 1980s (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png – the link shows the icecap extent is greater than average even at the end of S. Hemisphere summer!) The Arctic icecap extent is still below average, but has made a significant recovery in the last two years (http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png)

      When NOAA (the very small group of people at NOAA) puts out their monthly climate maps claiming it’s the warmest month in global history, the climate data they use is not raw numbers. They “adjust” the numbers. The State Climatologist of Texas wrote that one station was putting out “zombie data”, even though there was a perfectly good weather station there providing actual data. Of course the “zombie” station was turning out considerably warmer current data than the actual weather station was showing. Look at NOAA’s map of July global temperatures: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-blended-mntp/201407.gif Note that the Arctic and Antarctic are grayed out. It actually says in the lower right corner “gray areas represent missing data”. We actually have weather stations in the Arctic and Antarctic. We don’t over most of the Pacific and Indian Oceans that they have so much warmer than average. We do know that parts of Antarctica had record cold this winter (it’s been winter there the past 3 months) and that the Arctic north of 80° latitude has had their 2nd coldest summer since records began in 1958: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      I’ll leave you with a quote from H.L. Mencken: “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Here’s an update from the Danish Meteorological Institute regarding ice in Greenland: http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

      2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        I like the links and carefully considered facts Bill. Not sure where he was getting the information about the melting ice caps, but perhaps he just doesn’t want to admit that they are recovering from the previous melting phase in years far past. This last decade has been the warmest though, no arguing about that. He did mention that we have made great improvements in the Great Lakes waters quality. He also said that all of the nuclear plants in the US were built in the 70′s… What ever happened?

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          The evidence is clear the earth is warming, Nathan.

          We haven’t seen a single below average month globally in 30 years.

          Here’s the latest Arctic ice graph: 2014 arctic ice is way down again

          http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

          Here’s why you shouldn’t get fooled by the Antarctica headlines of ice expansion: hint, you need to look at the big picture and total ice volumes

          http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/05/20/polar_ice_loss_antarctica_melting_faster_greenland_more_vulnerable.html

        2. Bernie at the lakeshore says:

          Nathan, 2 things stopped the building of reactors in the 1970′s. Look up “3 Mile Island” then look up “The China Syndrome”. (a book and movie)

          The possibility of a meltdown and lack of backup cooling systems at some reactors scared investors.

          Also back in the 1970′s the Big Rock Nuclear Power Plant in Petoskey had a visitors center and tours.

          Did you know the color yellow is radioactive?

    2. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

      It would be great if teachers taught instead of engaging in indoctrination. It’s pathetic.

  14. Daniel G says:

    Ahh H.L. Mencken, one of my literary heros. I remember that he spoke of his ancestors being grave diggers on Golgotha and that they worked for free. I believe GRATIS was his term.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      That’s no surprise to me. I was watching the radar velocities closely yesterday up there, and saw several areas of interest. Luckily they were in mostly unpopulated areas.

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