Slight Risk Area for This (Friday PM/Evening)

September 4th, 2014 at 12:00 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook   Here’s the Day 1 and  Day 2 and outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center.    The Slight Risk Area for today includes parts of S. and SE Michigan, N and NW. Ohio, N. Indiana and Central Illinois back SW to St. Louis.  The threats are wind damage and isolated marginal hail (not tornadoes).   The Slight Risk Area includes everyone east of a line from New Buffalo to Lansing to near Saginaw.  SPC says:  ” LWR MI THIS AFTN INTO TNGT… SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES/SMALL CLUSTERS OF MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-MS VLY ENE INTO LWR MI AND THE LWR GRT LKS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT AS SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES CORRIDOR OF 1.75+ INCH PW ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EXTRAPOLATION OF MORNING RAOB DATA SUGGESTS THAT RESIDUAL EML/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME SPREADING ENE ON NRN SIDE OF UPR RIDGE WILL OVERLIE SRN LWR MI/NRN IND AND WRN/NRN OH THIS AFTN. ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN REACHED…FRONTAL UPLIFT AND…IN CNTRL LWR MI…UPLIFT ALONG PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY…SHOULD OVERCOME CINH TO FOSTER STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEVELOPMENT IN MO/IL ALSO MAY BE ENCOURAGED BY THE APPROACH OF NEB/IA UPR IMPULSE. DEEP…LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE. BUT STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL POSE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY SVR HAIL GIVEN VERY WARM/HUMID NEAR-SFC ENVIRONMENT…EML…AND 30-35 KT 700-500 MB FLOW THAT COULD YIELD SMALL BOWS/ARCING LINE SEGMENTS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MID-LATE EVE…STRONG ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST INTO LATE TNGT/EARLY SAT OVER OH AND THE LWR GRT LKS..”

At Noon the dewpoints in W. Michigan are mainly between 71 and 73.  The Ford Airport is reading 76, but that’s a couple degrees too high. The sun is out south of Kent Co., where the best bet for strong storms will occur.  Temps. range from 87 at Kalamazoo to 83 at the Ford Airport in G.R. to 79 in downtown G.R. to 74 at the Lake Michigan shore.  The cool front is thru Milwaukee, where the dewpoint has dropped to 69.  The dewpoint is down to 55 at Madison.  Temperatures at noon were only in the 50s, so cooler and less humid air is definitely on the way for the weekend and a shot of still cooler air will be here in a week (11th and 12th).

HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT:  6.12″ at Interlochen in just 12 hours, 4.43″ Mancelona, 3.73″ at The Bear golf course in Traverse City, 3.74″ Benzonia, 2.70″ Wellston (near Manistee), 2.08″ S. Haven, 1.24″ Hopkins – up to 3″ in Muskegon Co. (much of which fell in an hour).

Here’s regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven, Here’s the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion.

Today’s lightning flash brought to you by the letter “M”.

99 Responses to “Slight Risk Area for This (Friday PM/Evening)”

  1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    The Red light thing only happens to me it seems when i am running behind, Same thing when i use to drive to work on Port Sheldon to 31, tractors with Hay wagons so full you cant see around them to pass

  2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Chicago is in the middle of their longest warmer than average streak in more than 2 years according to Tom Skilling. I’ve had only 1 below average day the past 18 days, myself.

    Summer 2014 recap for SE Mich is out. Flint and Saginaw slightly above average, Detroit slightly below.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=104108&source=0

    CPC reiterating the odds that favor a warm winter for us:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_temp.gif

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Two things jumped out to me.

      Interesting how close Detroit’s and Flint’s average temperatures were for the summer – less than one degree difference. And how few 90-degree days there were – 10+ fewer than average.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        What’s interesting to me was how close Saginaw and Flint were for the summer even though everyone seems to think Flint is way off base.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Since Flint’s historical average is so much cooler than everywhere else, anytime it is warmer than from average, it will give the appearance that it is REALLY warm.

        2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Flint’s summer average is only 0.4 away from Saginaw.

        3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Yet Saginaw was almost 2 degrees cooler than Flint in August.

    2. Jacob G. says:

      That will likely get trimmed back as the CFSv2 is starting to flip colder for this winter.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Warm water off the west coast and in the Gulf of Alaska should mean ridge west/trough east again for much of the winter.

        CPC is still just running out their “Look out El Nino’s are all the same” map every time they get the chance.

  3. INDY says:

    Blogging to your self again I travis!!! To bad it never got hot this summer in Michigan that jumps out to me!! Hey did u see highs in the 60′s Saturday Fall is here!! INDYY!!

    1. Brad (Van Buren) says:

      Wood has 72 on Saturday…where are you getting your forecast from???

      1. matt says:

        He’s getting his forecast from his kid friend rocky who makes weather models out of tinker toys. It’s also well known that indy smokes catnip.

  4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    With Meteorological Summer over and GR not have had a 90° day or better this should be the first time since 1951 that GR has not hit 90° or better and I believe it will be only the second time in recorded history here in GR! But hey we are off to a nice sunny mild start for today!
    SlimJim

    1. Jacob G. says:

      That is a big meteorological deal if that happens. Pretty rare occurrence that is for sure whether you like it or not.

  5. Irish coffee says:

    CPC maps(winter) are EXTREMELY unreliable!!!……..I’d be willing to bet my mother-in-laws’ kidneys that MORE blue/BELOW avg temps. VERIFY come next Mar…..

    1. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      CPC never predicts colder than average weather in the long term. They happen to be wrong a lot.

  6. Irish coffee says:

    Also suspect is the WARM look to AK AND warmer than avg prob. for Midwest/eastern lakes— both will not occur this winter…but if ALL of AK, and western NY state verify abv avg temps. i will swim from Mi City, IN to Green Bay Wi next April…non-stop…in b- day suit, carrying a Chevy Tahoe on my back

    1. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

      I sure hope this comes true because I am so going to hold you to it… LOL

  7. John (Norton Shores) says:

    That line of storms looks very strong, northern lower is going to get hammered if it holds!

    1. I was just looking at that John. Wondering if the line will extend and hit us here? They look very strong!

      1. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

        Look to me like they will stay North of us. I wish they were a little south that would make for a interesting afternoon. Don’t see much behind that, what do you guys think will anything else build behind it?

  8. dereks says:

    They look like they might hit me here in Montcalm County if the warm front stays just to the south of the county.

  9. INDY says:

    Looks like the Derecho is getting stronger and moving a little further southeast!! Folks in northern Kent Co. should be on the look out!! INDYY!!!

    1. Daniel G says:

      I agree Indy. Perhaps time to warm up the scanner and head north from Myers Lake this afternoon. NWS Radar is on at the house.

      1. Jeff (Richland) says:

        The line is weakening substantially.

        1. Cassie (Grandville) says:

          Its just some rain showers now…it really fizzled out.

  10. Zach says:

    Mesodiscussion issued for Northern Lower regarding severe weather potential

    http://mesodiscussion.com/view/20141679/

    1. Daniel G says:

      BAHHH! They say the line will weaken as it heads southeast away from instability. Still may get a decent storm but they say only a 20% chance of issuing a watch.

      1. INDY says:

        Yeaa but looks real nice on radar !!!! Moving fast!!! INDYY!!

  11. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

    I don’t know, I have a feeling by time it reaches northern Kent it will be all but rain showers if that. I just have to laugh at the infamous split and see everything to the North stay together and strong and everything to the south stay strong and together anything in between fizzles out.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Eh, most of Kent County got plenty of rain/storms today…we have hardly had any rain today in most of Kalamazoo County.

      1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

        Barely anything up here Jeff, everything has been south of me.

        1. Jeff (Richland) says:

          And north of me. I think GR to Wayland to St Joseph areas seemed to get the best of it from the looks of radar earlier.

      2. Daniel G says:

        Northeast of Rockford on the east side of Myers Lake we got abut enough rain to get the road and sidewalk wet this morning. Looked impressive coming across Muskegon and Ottawa counties but the it went south (figurativly and in reality) up here. Bupkus in the guage on the end of the dock.

    2. JoeT says:

      The West Michigan Bubble…. splits and fizzles every storm! It looks impressive right now.

  12. INDY says:

    Only 77* degrees out at thee YARDofBRICKS !!! Don’t feel it making 88* degrees today!! Say good bye to the mid 80′s after today!! INDYY!!!

    1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

      Neither am I, nor am I feeling it with those storms up North making it here. I’ve been hurting but FDM has remained on stable grounds

  13. JoeT says:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    209 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

    LATEST UPDATE…
    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

    ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

    AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY
    OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL REPORTS IS RACING EAST SOUTHEAST
    AROUND 55 MPH. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE STORM NEAR
    AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE STORMS HAVE MOVED
    AWAY FROM THE BEST INFLOW…DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. AS
    SUCH I WOULD EXPECT THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE IN
    BY 230 PM. EVEN SO THE SPC SREF SHOWS 35 TO 50 KNOTS OF EFFECT
    SHEAR OVER THE STORMS SO THIS LINE WILL NOT TOTALLY DISSIPATE. AS A
    RESULT I HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS OVER OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. I
    MAY HAVE INCREASE POPS ANOTHER ROW OF TWO SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT
    HOUR.

    1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

      Already weakening

  14. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I’m not sure slightly above average would describe much about this summer , except in those fuzzy math sectors Travis likes to post. Recap of our summer so far , sorry if already posted.

    http://go.usa.gov/yQuT

  15. Bluegill says:

    The docks are underwater in Petoskey – seiche.

    http://www.upnorthlive.com/news/story.aspx?id=1092391

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      LOL!!! Those seem to catch folks on the Great Lakes by surprise!

  16. fred says:

    DERECHOS cause more widespread damage than the small f-1 in kentwood/wyoming. I’ve lived through one. Anyone who gleefully wants one is a raving idiot.

  17. Jack says:

    Off Topic,,,,RIP Joan Rivers …… :-(

    1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

      OMG! I didn’t know she past, Thank’s Jack

      1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

        :( ((((

  18. Paul m says:

    More storms firing up in Northwest Wisconsin.im thinking tonight could get interesting here.

  19. Mr. Negative says:

    Storm free

    1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

      Agree

  20. Jack says:

    ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014  
     
    SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
    AFTERNOON AS ONE THE STRONGER COLD FRONTS IN OVER TWO MONTHS COMES  
    THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECT MOSTLY  
    CLEAR SKIES AND EARLY FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  Stay CUEDD…&….. GO TIGERS!!!

  21. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

    Looks like we may get some rain soon…

  22. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    Received .14 so far, and appears the GR storm splitter is engaged

  23. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

    Starting to hear thunder to the west!

  24. Jack says:

    What Do U Need, On This Thirsty, Throw-Back, THERAPUTIC THURSDAY ??? How bout The Theme SONG, from My Old RADIO SHOW!!! Which Was CALLED THURSDAY THERAPY……..CUE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7wKn-K_0_k. TURN IT UP y’all ( BILL)……. :-)

  25. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

    Going to be bone dry up in Cedar again

  26. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    In Jenison right now and it’s thundering pretty nicely over here. Cool clouds!

    1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

      As always it seems more so this summer, I am going to be a spectator just like I will be tonight at my sons football game

      1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

        I can hear the thunder in Muskegon but it is going to miss me completely

  27. Daniel G says:

    I am on the east side of Myers Lake northeast of Rockford. I have been listening to thunder for the last half hour and the nearest storm is out over the Lake Michigan coast at Port Sheldon. I am amazed that thunder makes it this far east from Lake Michigan! Am I to assume that this is higher altitude lightning setting this off? Didn’t think thunder would travel over 30 to 40 miles inland.

    1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

      It is amazing isn’t it Daniel G, I’ve been sitting outside listening to it since we will miss it up here so I try to take in what I can get even if I’m going to miss it. Now if something develops and heads straight for us within the next hour or so things could get interesting at my sons football game. Cedar Spring Vs. Sparta

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      We hear it often – I’ve been told it’s the sound of the thunder echoing off the cold water of Lake Michigan. Once the storms hit land, the thunder goes quiet until they get closer.

      I am hearing thunder right now – but the storms are close by :-)

      1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

        I sure do miss a good heart pounding window shaking house vibrating thunderstorm.

  28. John (Norton Shores) says:

    George lessons is saying the first snow flurries of the season are possible next Friday night and early Saturday! I sure hope not! I love snow but let’s have fall first and a warm fall please!

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Bill what are your thoughts on this?

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        I don’t think so. Even if it gets cold enough, the added warmth of the 70-degree Lake Michigan temps. will prevent that from happening.

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Okay thank you Bill, I really hope we don’t have snow in September!

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Who knew.

    3. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      Whhhattt?? The mere fact that it’s even mentioned by a respected meteorologist like George Lessens on September 4th (for the 12th of Sep) is absolutely unbelievable. That would be one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen: snow in (mid) September!

      Note that I am still torn on whether I saw snow just south of Traverse City on September 30, 2011. The temperature was I believe between 37 and 40 (my car thermometer was slightly inaccurate then), and I saw what looked like slower-than-rain particles dropping through the brightness of a streetlight. At the time, I was positive it was snow, but it could’ve been the dripping rain droplets off the top of the lamppost.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Although it would be cool, It would get really cold at least for those couple days, and I like fall to be at least in the 60′s, especially for September!

    4. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

      I’am pretty sure he said the following week and it was a computer spitting that info out. about the *now

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        He said next Friday and Saturday, and the model run says Saturday 9/13, and yes I do know it is a computer model and I should have said that, sorry!

        1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

          Ok,Was not trying to upset you, sorry if i did!

        2. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Nope you did not upset me, just some miscommunication, all is okay! :)

    5. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      That would be the best thing ever. I miss snow a lot.

  29. GunLakeDeb says:

    Starting to rain here – been listening to thunder for over an hour….LOL!!

  30. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Talked with my APES teacher and brought up the fact that we have had no 90′s and how it doesn’t support the global warming ideology. He just said that things fluctuate and global warming increases that fluctuation.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      The weather on the whole has been fairly benign this year…fewer hurricanes, fewer tornadoes, very low # of wildfires. The weather sure fluctuated more in the 1890s, 1930s, 1950s and 1970s than in 2014. Ask him to explain from a standpoint of physics (not some vague computer model) why climate would fluctuate more by adding an additional one part in 6,700 of CO2 to the atmosphere.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Good point, computer models have been pretty far off on their predictions for climate change. But to answer part of your statement, there have been a good amount of hurricanes in the Pacific (with that Category 5) and the drought in California is still in progress (plenty of rain for the deserts though with that tropical moisture). So when looking directly at 1973, was that year active? Or was the entire decade active as whole? Similar idea in my opinion.

  31. Jack says:

    ” APE”S Teacher CUE::: The Kinks – Apeman 1970 – YouTube
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEep67akIn4. Hee,heeee….LOL….stay CUEDD… GO CAPS & TIGERS!!!!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Psst, Jack: Nathan’s a pretty bright guy. I’ll bet that’s “Advanced Placement Environmental Science” or something to that effect??

      1. Jack says:

        Psst…I know !!! Great TUNE HOWEVER!!! Just having a little FUN! Stay CueDD……

    2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Jack, I typically click on your links, but I have the urge to avoid this one for some reason.

      1. Jack says:

        Nathan, aww Come ON ! It’s a GREAT Old SONG ( RIGHT BILL)!!! Try it YOU’LL LIKE IT!!

  32. Daniel G says:

    Speaking of early snow…when I worked at the Palmer Park Kent County Road Commission garage back in 1988 (I think) we had a major snowstorm on opening day of deer bow season in Mid October. I got KENTWOOD for my assignment of the day cause almost everyone was gone….UMMM all of the major streets in Kentwood huh? OK see ya later…..like 12 hours later!

  33. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Rained a bit this evening, thought we were going to get nailed but it died off a bit, total rain for the day .17″.

  34. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    “Are You Ready For Some Football”

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I’ve been ready. Watching as I type.

    2. Tim (Walker) says:

      Yep

    3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Everyone in the house is, but I’m upstairs doing weather stuff as usual

    4. Jack says:

      Yes, Sir Been Flipping between MY TIGERS ( 4-4 TIE Game) & FOOTBALL !!! Stay CUEDDD

      1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

        Cedar Springs High School vs. Sparta 28-16 and my son made several tackles and assists he kicked some BOOOOOOTY tonight!!!

        1. Swatz_Zoo (Cedar Springs) says:

          Oh and 2 recoveries! PROUD momma tonight!

        2. Jack says:

          ” Proud Momma” Keep on Burning !! LOL….stay CUEDD

  35. Jack says:

    TIGERS WIN, 11-4 in Eleven innings ! Nice Win TIGERS!!!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      No decision for Max, but a W is as good as gold in the division right now for them.

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