We might not see rain until October. The European has showers and t-showers moving in late next Monday night and definitely on Tuesday. The other models are a little slower and don’t have rain until Oct. 1-2. However, when the rain gets here, it looks significant with a slow-moving front. The GFS hits at 1-2″ from Oct. 2-4. These are the long range outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. The first map is the 6-10 day temperature departure from average for Sept. 28 – Oct. 2. CPC is pretty confident that warmer than average temperatures will prevail in the Great lakes and pretty much everywhere east of the Rockies. I agree with that. The middle map is rainfall departure from average for Sept. 28 – Oct. 2. They have dry conditions from the mid-Mississippi Valley thru the Great Lakes and Northeast. Above average rainfall is likely in the SE U.S., the Rockies and High Plains. The third map on the right is the CPC rainfall departure from average for Sept. 30 to Oct. 6. It shows the wet weather moving east into the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
This is an excellent combination for decent fall colors…sunny, warm days – cool nights – dry weather and light winds. A cautious note…a warm spell of weather like this in late Sept./early Oct. is not an indication of a warm winter ahead. Last year it was warmer than average in Sept. (+0.9) and Oct. (+2.1). In 1977, September was very close to average and in 1978, September was slightly warmer than average. In 1951, the only other year that we didn’t reach 90 during the summer, we were 0.5 cooler than average in Sept. and 2.7 warmer than average in October. We started Oct. 1951 with highs of 76, 83, 80, 87 (yes, 87!) and 77. Winter hit when November came. We had measurable snow on each of the first 8 days of November. On the morning of Nov. 8, GRR reported 12″ of snow on the ground! That melted quickly, but it came with abandon in mid-December and by Christmas Day we had 22″ of snow on the ground in G.R.
I knew Kyle Underwood was tall…but I had no idea…no tropical activity in the Atlantic…a tropical storm could form W-SW of Acapulco in the eastern Pacific (I think “Rachel” is the next name on the list). Here’s severe weather reports from Monday. Melbourne, FL has received 4.92″ of rain since Friday. A rain gauge near Huger SC measured 4.39″ of rain between 330pm-5pm including 1.33″ between 440pm-445pm! Snow in Finland.