Click on the graphic to enlarge.  This is the crop moisture index.  We’re starting the growing season on a good note here, with ample crop moisture over most all of our agricultural areas.  The exceptions either don’t have a lot of agriculture (southern Nevada) or are largely irrigated (Florida).  Look at the turnaround for Texas, where much of the state had another week of soaking rains.  The first half of May was four degrees warmer than average.  That trend is going to continue, as temperatures will be up in the low-mid 80s over the weekend, we’ll above the average high temperature of 71.  I do not see any frost or freezing temperatures for our area in the next two weeks, so it’s probably safe to start planting warm season crops like tomatoes and melons.  So far this year, the temperature in Grand Rapids has been 6.1 degrees warmer than average.  I expect temperatures to be closer to normal this summer.  Two of our long-range forecast models are predicting a much cooler late fall and winter than what we had last year.  Precipitation for 2012 stands at 7.78″ and that is almost exactly at normal.  We have also had an above average amount of sunshine this year, with eight days giving us 100% sunshine.  Since January 1st, we’ve had 46.8% of possible sunshine.  Eighty-eight percent of the nation’s corn crop has been planted and 46% of the soybean crop.  Both of these figures are 22% ahead of the 5-year average.

  Shortly after the start of the 6 PM news on Monday, you’re TV might have gone black.  Evidently, a snake had infiltrated a power supply at our transmitter and anyone getting the signal the old-fashioned way off the transmitter (with one of those $40 converter boxes) or by satellite saw our signal drop off.  We had it back in a relatively short period of time, about 20 minutes.  Unfortunately, it was during our 6 PM news.  Monday was the 8th day this year with 100% sunshine.  Photo courtesy Jim Harding and the Michigan DNR.

  Here’s over 30 pictures of the storms and damage.  Wind gust reports:  60 mph (est.) north of Fremont – a couple trees down there,    51 mph at Calvin College (rooftop), 50 mph at Daybreak Church in Hudsonville (rooftop), 50 mph Sternberg Road, east of Muskegon (est.),  49 mph at GVSU downtown (rooftop), 48 mph at Allendale and on the beach at Muskegon, 41 mph Muskegon Airport, 39 mph Hudsonville City Hall and Grand Haven beach.   Hail reports from Montague, Pentwater, Twin Lake, and Volney in Newaygo Co.  We had half a dozen reports of trees or large limbs down from Gr. Rapids to Lowell.  There was damage in East Grand Rapids and Delta Twp.   First two storm pictures here are from near Fremont from Melissa West and Chani Ellick.  The third picture is from Stephanie White.   The fourth picture is a virga/rain shaft near Ionia by Virgina.  Rainfall totaled .24″ at the Ford Airport, .30″ in Muskegon, .16″ in Mt. Pleasant, .10″ in Holland and just a trace in Kalamazoo.  Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler today (Wed.) Traverse City dropped 14 degrees in an hour when the cold front went through and they dropped 24 degrees in four hours.  Dewpoints were only in the 40s, with relative humidities from 25-35% ahead of the storms, kind of like the “dry” thunderstorms of the plains that have lower rainfall totals and gusty winds and maybe a hail report or two.   There’s also a Red Flag Warning for N. Lower Michigan. Click here for the current SPC outlooks and discussion.  Here’s current SPC  severe t-storm and tornado watches, meso-discussions, and storm reports.  You can check national lightning, Michigan lightning and the latest visible satellite loop (daytime), infrared satellite (nighttime) and regional radar. (more…)

   We’ll have a crescent moon out in the early morning this week (picture from Jack Martin).  We have a rather uneventful four days ahead with lots of sunshine, pleasant daytime temperatures in the 70s and mostly dry conditions.  There may be a shower Tues. night or Weds., but overall, we have some fine weather ahead.  The European model gives G.R. only .03″ Thurs. night and the GFS is dry thru Friday.  There could be frost in isolated low spots north of G.R. about Thurs. AM, but for most of the area, that won’t happen.   The average high temperature is up to 69 now.  Check out this video of hail…and then…the lady figures out there’s a tornado approaching!  Areas in the NM/TX and also parts of the SE that have been very dry have been getting rain.  Rain totals from Sunday:  5.27″ Valparaiso FL, 3.41″ Troy AL, 3.16″ Pamana City FL, 2.18″ Nashville TN, 2.12″ Montgomery AL, 1.44″ Atlanta GA, 0.52″ Las Vegas NM, 0.47 Tucumcari, NM.  Prudhoe Bay, Alaska climbed to 30 on Sunday for the first time this year and Barrow topped out at 26.  Barrow has an average temperature for May so far at +10.5 and they still have 14″ of snow on the ground.   AND – here’s some nice aurora pictures.  It’s harder to see the aurora in summer as you get closer to the Arctic, because of the “midnight sun/twilight.

<My mother, Louise Steffen.  You’d be surprised how active my mother is at 9 weeks shy of birthday 93. She walks (she tries for a mile a day), reads a lot (a couple books a month), is always out and about. She’s a fantastic piano player (sang and played piano with the USO shows during WWII).   She actually was offered a scholarship for voice and opera, but WWII erupted and she went to work for the Phone Company until I came along.  A Happy Mother’s Day to all. As I mentioned in the last thread, we had the memorial service for my mother-in-law on Saturday.  She was 90 and fought valiantly for four years against the cancer that would ultimately win the battle.  The service couldn’t have been better, with relatives back from Europe and the West Coast.

From the Memphis National Weather Service:  “A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE LONG TERM WILL KEEP THINGS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY HOT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH DAY 7 WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND 925 MB TEMPS REACHING +24C BY NEXT WEEKEND. COUPLE THAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS…FULL SUN…AND LOW HUMIDITY…AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOWER 90S. I/M WILLING TO SAY IF THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD…ANY CHANCE AT A TRADITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER SEASON THIS YEAR WILL BE TOAST…WHICH IS GOOD NEWS.”       A couple things to note…the forecaster writes “keep things from becoming progressively hot” and then “highs should easily reach the lower 90s”.  I’m guessing fixxxer’s brother works at the National Weather Service there in Memphis!    Second, I agree with the pattern not being nearly as conducive to getting many days with big tornadoes or large numbers of tornadoes.  We usually get more tornadoes, more long-track tornadoes and more days with a significant number of tornadoes when we have La Nina.  We did have 63 tornado fatalities up to April 14, but none in the last month (late April and May is peak time for tornadoes).  However, at that point the La Nina crossed to neutral (La Nada) and as is usually the case when La Nina fades to neutral, the number of tornadoes in the U.S. decreases.  I do think that we remain under the gun here in Michigan for some wind damage from thunderstorm complexes coming in from the west or northwest over the top of the central U.S. ridge this summer.    I think I mentioned earlier that 45 of the 63 tornado fatalities this year have been to people who were inside mobile homes.  If you live in a mobile home, you should first of all have the home securely fastened with “tie downs”.  While that won’t help if you get an EF5 tornado, the odds of having an EF5 come down your particular street are smaller than Dennis Rodman paying off the country’s national debt.  Tie downs should make a big difference if your mobile home is hit with a much more common EF0-EF1 tornado.

Here’s the global sea-surface temperature anomaly map.  You can clearly see the cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) with the arc (backwards “C”) of cooler than average water from the Aleutian Islands of Alaska down the West Coast of N. America and out to south of Hawaii.  Looking at that, you’d predict fewer hurricanes this year off the West Coast of Mexico.  You can also see that the La Nina has ended and we have moved/are moving to a weak El Nino (warmer than average water along the Equator west of S. America).  There’s warm water in the Gulf of Mexico that could mean an early season tropical storm (and possible one that forms relatively close to the U.S., as opposed to one that spends 10 days moving west after developing off the coast of Africa.   The possibility of a colder than average winter is still on the table.  First, historically, you can get cold winters east of the Rockies when you move from La Nina to a weak El Nino.  Second, the cold water off Alaska would suggest the air gets cold again in that area.  Without the La Nina or a strong El Nino, you would expect more blocking in the Arctic which would force more of that cold air south into the mainland U.S.  Just looking at this graph would suggest a cooler fall/winter with earlier snow.   If the mean trough sets up over eastern N. America – you often get troughs over Europe and eastern China, which (if that’s the case) would mean a harsh winter and high energy demand over the most populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere.

The GFS prints out only 0.15″ of rain this week for G.R. – mainly late Tues. night/Weds.  The European only gives GRR 0.03″ of rain this week.  Both models keep our temperatures above frost/freeze levels – so planting of warm season crops is going to pick up.

   The rain Saturday (outside of sprinkles) was basically south of a line from Grand Haven to Alma and from S. Bend and Coldwater to the north.  The most rain (1/2″) was in S. Clinton, far NE Eaton, far northwest Ingham Co. and from there ENE into the Thumb.  I barely had enough to wet the driveway in Alpine Twp., while the GRR airport had 0.14″.  Holland had 0.19″ and it did get wet at the Muziekparade.  Kalamazoo had .13″, Battle Creek .29″, Coldwater .03″ and Lansing .42″.  Muskegon reported no rain.  We had the memorial service for my mother-in-law Saturday…it was an absolutely wonderful celebration of her life.  (That’s why I wasn’t at the RiverBank Run or the Tulip Parade).  It’s kind of hard to say goodbye to “mom” on Mother’s Day Weekend.  We’ll continue to have visiting family until Thursday.  What’s left of the sprinkles and clouds will eventually clear out to the south and this afternoon should be nice to be outdoors.  Here’s links to the current conditions, regional radar, GRR radar, northern Indiana radar, and Chicago radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s closings, the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland St. Park. Check out the WOOD lightning tracker and U.S. lightning and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop and the visible loop (daytime).      FROM May 1-11 SPC notes 68 tornadoes in the U.S.  The 3-year average for May is 279.

   This picture is from Thursday.  Check it out full screen.  Notice how we’ve really greened up.  You can still make out my tornado scar (it’s been nearly five years) WNW of Green Bay.  You can also check out the MODIS pictures of Lake Superior (note how the lake breeze has moved inland on all sides of the lake.  All around the edge of Lake Superior you’d know the wind direction by looking at this picture from hundreds of miles in space!), Lake Huron (very clear picture), Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.     EXTRA:  Dust Storm in Arizona.

   The water level of Lake Michigan is up 2″ in the last month and is unchanged from one year ago.  The level remains 17″ below the century average.  Lake Superior is also up 2″ in the last month and is 1″ above the level of May 2011.  Superior is 12″ below the century average.  Lake Erie is down 1″ in the last month and is right at the century average right now.  Lake Ontario is unchanged from last month and is 3″ below the century average.   Many of our inland lakes are at average or a little above average levels.   In Great Lakes news, some charter boat operators recommend we postpone the stocking of salmon in Lake Michigan.  Picture courtesy of Jack Martin from ReportIt.    AND monster 75-foot waves off Portugal.  Surf’s Up!

Starting a weekend thread.  We got a couple reports of a shooting star (meteor) was visible here in W. Michigan around 9:45 PM.  I got a video of the object and it looks like a Sky Lantern…so never mind.  We’re seeing more of these.  People put them up at parties and on holidays.

Click on the picture from Tyler Folkert to really see it.   The lights look reddish because they are coming from over 80 miles away.  The red color (with the longest wavelength) is best able to survive the 80 miles through the air.  It’s the same reason the sun changes from white light during the day to yellow, orange or red at sunset.  I’ve had a  (now it’s up to) many calls and emails from viewers who have seen the lights of Milwaukee tonight at the Lake Michigan shoreline!  This is a VERY rare event, usually occurring from mid-April to mid-May on clear, calm nights.  Usually, of course, you can’ t see Milwaukee because the Earth is curved and Milwaukee’s tallest buildings are below the horizon.  However, once in a VERY great while, the lights of Milwaukee will bounce off a temperature inversion and then become visible along the lakeshore here in Michigan.  From the Minnesota Sea Grant website:  “In Rainbows, Haloes and Glories, author Robert Greenler reported that one April night the residents of Grand Haven, Mich. looked across Lake Michigan and saw city lights and a flashing red beacon. Their sightings were later confirmed to have been the city of Milwaukee, Wisc. ”

And this from www.sandhillcity.com:

“Directly across the lake from Grand Haven — but well beyond the horizon — is Milwaukee, over 80 miles away,” Rickards spokesman Tom Dingle said recently. “On an occasion in 1977, a temperature inversion over Lake Michigan created a superior mirage, and the lights of Milwaukee’s skyline became clearly visible across the water, bent from beyond the horizon by layers of cold air in the atmosphere.”

Rickards is developing a video that will weave together spoken recollections of the mirages of the Wisconsin shoreline, as seen by residents of Grand Haven.

“This strange and rare event happens only when specific atmospheric circumstances occur, conjuring the image of Milwaukee from beyond the horizon through a precise combination of atmospheric layers at differing temperatures,” Dingle said. “The result is an immaterial image of a city hanging above the surface of the lake.”

This also happens on very rare occasion to the lights of Cleveland going across the lake to Ontario, Canada.

Click on Drawing to enlarge – courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.   If you get a picture or video, please send it to us at ReportIt.

Send a link to the blog thread – it’s a pretty rare event.