Three lovely views of the sunset last night…from Gun Lake Deb, Tristen Lobbezoo in Walker via ReportIt and John Hoyt at Myers Lake (Kent Co.). Click on the images to enlarge. Blue Bridge in G.R. Tues. night. Low temps. last night: 43 G.R., Muskegon and Holland, 41 Kalamazoo, 39 Big Rapids, Reed City, 36 Manistee, 35 Baldwin, 34 Bellaire, 33 Pellston, 31 Roscommon and Houghton, 30 Leota, Marquette and Ironwood, 28 Rudyard, 25 Wakefield, Watersmeet, Paulding and Champion, 24 Kenton, 22 Baraga Plains. First temp. below freezing of the fall at Marquette. Here’s a satellite loop – showing some lake-effect clouds moving to the southwest off Lake Huron into areas east and southeast of G.R.
The hurricane coming up the East Coast (Joaquin) is going to be a bigger deal than the media is reporting. I think the hurricane will be stronger and far enough west to give some very heavy rain and flooding to the East Coast states from the Carolinas northward. Wind and beach erosion will be a problem, too. The overnight run of the GFS takes the hurricane into E. Virginia. The strong fetch of moist air coming in off the Atlantic and hitting the Appalachian Mts. could produce some 6″+ rains and flooding. The combination of the hurricane and a large high pressure system in NE Canada will keep a strong pressure gradient and significant wind going for several days. Here in Michigan, the wind will not be as strong, but it will be steady from the north and northeast, continuing to bring down cool air from Canada. We’re seeing how far back the eastern rain can get – maybe back to W. Michigan – maybe not – but probably backing up into areas east of Lansing and Jackson. The farther east you go this weekend, the better the chance of a period of rain. Canadian model forecasting a cool winter for the Great Lakes and Northeast.
I’ll leave radar at the top of the blog for the mainly light showers coming thru from north-northwest to south-southeast. Rainfall amounts will be light. This looks like our only chance of rain the rest of this week. I presonally hope we get a little rain. The clouds should clear from north-northwest to south-southeast from mid-afternoon thru early evening. The NAM model has (PM) highs for G.R. of 67. 66. 63, 63, 59, 61, 64, 64 with a 56% chance of rain this AM and about a 30% chance of a shower next Sunday and Monday. The NAM model has highs of 69, 62, 62 for the next 3 days and a 52% chance of measurable rain for G.R. this AM. Here’s Michigan weather observations. Here’s the 7-day rainfall forecast for U.S. Time to get out the jackets and sweaters.
Click on the image to enlarge. The Detroit Lions lost to Denver 24-12. The Lions had 3 turnovers and only 28 yards rushing. Parts of W. Michigan got to see the supermoon-eclipse – the next lunar eclipse is in 2018 – the next lunar eclipse visible in Michigan will be in 2019, the next supermoon/lunar eclipse in 2033. A supermoon occurs when the full moon closest to the Earth in its orbit. Peak eclipse was 10:47 pm – when the moon looked a little reddish and dim. Variable cloud cover right now. You can follow the clouds on the satellite loop. Here’s GRR radar and regional radar…and surface weather observations. The eclipse watch at Cascade Township Park was cancelled. Check the webpage of the G.R. Amateur Astronomical Assn. You can come to an open house at the Veen Observatory and look at the moon and stars through some very nice telescopes. BTW, this is the Harvest (full) Moon, which is the full moon closest to the Autumn Equinox. The Big Dipper is visible to the north and Cassiopeia (look like a “W”) is high to the northeast.
Model data from Sunday PM: GFS for G.R. – high temps. sThe Big Dipper is visible to the north and Cassiopeia (look like a “W”) is high to the northeast. tarting Monday: 75, 61, 66, 62, 65, 63, 63. It definitely gets cooler. % chance of rain for G.R. each day starting with Monday from the GFS: 72%, 79%, 6%, 8%, 10%, 11%, 27%. NAM model high temps for the next 2 days for G.R.: 76, 68…with a low of 39 Weds. morning (the GFS has a low of 42 early Weds. The % chance of rain for Monday and Tuesday off the NAM: 51%, 9%. The high temp. Sat. in G.R. was 76 and Sun. the high was 73. Other highs Sunday: 73 Muskegon, 72 Holland, 75 Kalamazoo and Battle Creek. The high temp. at the beach in Muskegon was 69 and at the beach at S. Haven it was 70. The high (air) temperature and the water temp. at the Port Sheldon buoy was 67 and the high (air) temperature and the water temperature at the mid-lake buoy was 68 on Sunday.
Click on the pic. to enlarge. This sailboat at sunset is from Beach Bum Joe at ReportIt. All the Great Lakes continue to have above average water levels. Lake Michigan/Huron is down 2″ in the last month. The level is up 6″ in the last year and is now 7″ above the average September water level. Lake Superior is down 1″ in the last month, down 1″ in the last year and 6″ above the average September water level. Lake Erie is down 4″ in the last month, but is still 7″ above the level of one year ago. Erie is now 12″ above the average Sept. level. Lake Ontario is down 9″ in the last month, up 6″ in the last year and is now 4″ above the average September level. Lake St. Clair is also quite high, despite losing 2″ in the last month. St. Clair is up 6″ in the last year and it’s now 12″ above the average level for September. The St. Mary’s, Niagara and St. Lawrence Rivers will continue to have above average flow. The St. Clair and Detroit Rivers should also continue to have above average flow. Here’s some current (Friday AM) flow numbers in cubic feet per second compared to median flow: Grand River at Grand Rapids 2100 cfs (1620), Kalamazoo River at New Richmond 1450 cfs (1300).
The nighttime run of the European model gives G.R. 0.03″ of rain Monday, 0.04″ Tues. PM, 0.15″ on Thursday and a whopping 1.79″ Friday into Friday night. It has colder air moving in Wednesday, and really cold air around the 3rd/4th – taking 850 mb temps. (about a mile above the ground) to -3.3C (26F). That’d be cold enough for lake-effect rain and it takes ground temps. into at least the upper 30s. The GFS highs for G.R. starting today (Fri.) are: 81, 76, 72, 77, 81, 68, 66, 70 (so not as cold late next week). The % chc. of measurable rain for G.R. beginning with today (Fri.) on the GFS: 2%, 5%, 33%, 41%, 45%, 47%, 56%, 56%. The NAM has a higher chc. of rain Sat. night into Sun. AM – esp. south and southeast of G.R.
Since not much is happening here, I thought I’d look around to see what else was going on. The first picture is snow in Denali Natl. Park (pic. from Lisa and Verne Murkowski). It’s been cold over much of Alaska. Nome set both a record low temp. and a record low maximum temperature Tuesday. A major storm is on the way for Central Alaska with mostly rain below 2,ooo feet elevation and mostly snow above 3,000 feet where over a foot of snow could accumulate, plus drifting. Anaktuvuk Pass had a low temperature of +3F on the last day of summer. In the middle (click on the picture to enlarge) of the middle picture there is a small (it’s far away) waterspout (from NWS Key West). This picture was taken in the Saddlebunch Keys (FL) shortly before 7:30 am. Note that the waterspout is under the updraft of a building turret. It’s dry close to the waterspout with the rain on the far right of the picture. On the right, we have flooding in Omaha, NE (from WOWT). The Omaha Airport had 5.74″ of rain yesterday (Weds.). The previous record rainfall for any Sept. 23rd in Omaha was 1.97″. The highest total was 7.12″ three miles NE of Council Bluffs IA.
In Grand Rapids 13 of the first 23 days of September were at or above 80 degrees. That ties July and August which also had 13 80-degree days in the first 23 days of the month. June had only 8 days reach 80 in the first 23 days of the month. September is averaging about 3.8 degrees warmer than average in G.R. Here’s the GFS % chc. of measurable rain for G.R. starting with today (Thu.): 1, 10, 9, 19, 40, 34, 50, 43. GFS high temps. starting with today: 79, 78, 77, 73, 78, 80, 69, 66. It does cool off (but not drastically cold) the middle of next week. Tropical Cyclone Dujuan is now forecast to move WNW into China and not recurve east of Japan. If that’s the case, we may not see a trough or as big of a trough in the Eastern U.S.
2 pm – some high clouds – so partly cloudy – it’s 74 in G.R., 73 in Muskegon and the lake-breeze has not kicked in – it’s 73 with an east-southeast wind at the beach weather stations at both Muskegon and S. Haven.
On the left, the Muskegon GLERL camera caught a freighter leaving Muskegon earlier today. On the right, I found the best-dressed man at ArtPrize. We’re having fun down here at the G.R. Art Museum. I’ve got thousands of mustaches to give out again this year.
G.R. made it to 80 degrees today. That’s the 13th time we’ve made it to 80 degrees in Sept. We made it to 80 thirteen times in the first 23 days of July and August and on only 8 of the first 23 days of June this year. The high was just 68 at the water’s edge at Holland St. Park and the high at the mid-Lake Michigan buoy was also 68. The water temp. at the buoy was 67 this morning and climbed to 70 by late afternoon. With a very light wind, the sun could warm up the surface water today.