Click on the images to enlarge. The first is the 6-10 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for July 29 to August 2. The second is the 8-14 day outlook for July 31 to August 6 and the image on the right is the NAEFS forecast for July 31-August 6. This is a pattern that has been prevalent since last November – generally cooler than from the Plains east and warmer than average from the Rockies to the West Coast. The mean upper level trough is over the Great Lakes as we end July and start August. Despite our one day of 89° – Grand Rapids is now 3.7° below average for July with an average temperature for the month of 68.9°. I believe that would put us about tied for 6th coldest July ever…and we’re probably going to go below that. The coolest July in G.R. was 2009 at 67.1°. The four coolest Julys ever in G.R. have all occurred relatively recently, since 1992. The warmest July in G.R. was 1921. Manistee is -6.9° for the month and they have a good shot at setting their coolest July ever. Muskegon is -4.2° for the month. As you can see, it looks like no 90-degree days in the next two weeks. The ONLY year when we did not have a 90-degree day in G.R. was 1951 (highest that summer was 89°). That summer was followed by the snowiest year EVER in G.R. The snow came early that winter with the heaviest snowfalls we have ever had in the first week of November.
Today we have another Comstock Park RotaryBBQ fundraiser (my wife is a member). The weather should be perfect, partly to mostly sunny and low-mid 70s. Several blog readers stop down at the BBQs , so hopefully a few of you can grab a lunch or dinner. I’m there around Noon and we talk weather or whatever. The BBQs are the 4th Thursdays in June and July and the 3rd Thurs. in August. They’ll be serving food from 11:30 a.m. – 6:30 p.m. or until sold out. The Comstock Park Rotary does a lot of good work in the community. They built and are helping to maintain Grotto Park on the North Side of the Veterans Home on Monroe, NW and with the help of Amway Employees built the new playground in the York Creek Area. The BBQ is at Dwight Lydell Park in “downtown” Comstock Park on West River Drive, just down the road from 5th/3rd Park, with an easy on and off to US 131. Along with the traditional chicken, they’ll have sausage and ribs. Dinners include two sides, roll and butter, and a drink. Half-chicken dinner is $9; half an order of ribs is $11, and a whole order of ribs is $16.
Advance Orders are taken for pick up. Call 616-299-4775 or email email@example.com to pre-order 10 or more meals at a specific time. If you order 15 or more dinners, they’ll deliver within 10 miles. In June, one company ordered 52 dinners for their employees – nice. They’ve got a thousand dinners to sell. There’s a large gazebo there so you can get out of the sun if you like. Click here for pictures of a past BBQ.
Today’s Maranda Park Party is in Muskegon at Smith-Ryerson Park. Park Parties are from 11:30 to 2 PM, but come early. There’s a free (well, thank you taxpayers, it’s USDA) lunch for anyone 18 and under and lots of other free food (apples, ice cream, cheese curls, candy and more). There’s also the free entertainment, lots of prizes, rides, the climbing wall, games and fun. We’ll have lots of giveaways from the stage, including dozens of t-shirts. The weather should be fantastic – partly to mostly sunny with temps. in the low-mid 70s. You can see more on Maranda’s facebook page and you can watch highights of the Park Party on Maranda’s TV show (Where You Live) on WOTV4 at 7 pm. This is the 20th year of FREE Park Parties…parking is free, too.
Cooler and less humid air for the next several days. The dew points were in the upper 60s yesterday and today they have dropped to the mid 50s. Temperatures reached the upper 80s yesterday. We’ll be in the mid 70s this afternoon. There’s a beach hazard statement out for today. Waves are 3-5 feet from Pentwater to S. Haven this morning. With a general north wind, the north sides of piers and breakwaters are prone to develop structural currents that move out toward open water. So, don’t swim near the north sides of the breakwaters (like at Holland St. Park). Small Craft Advisories will continue this afternoon. The GFS MOS model gives G.R. highs of 75, 77 and 79 for the next 3 days. The NAM MOS is 74, 76, 74 with the next chance of rain on Saturday. The warmest temperature at 850 mb over the next 10 days on the GFS-plot is +18C Friday night and we go down to +7C next Monday. Looks like for awhile, we’ll have to struggle to make 80° much less 90°. The latest JAMSTEC model 3-month forecast for Dec. – Feb. has Michigan a little cooler than average. Generally, it’s warmer than average in the West and cooler than average in the East. (picture from Beach Bum Joe at ReportIt).
Rainfall last night was heaviest in the lakeshore counties and light inland: 1.65″ Grand Haven, 1.21″ Muskegon, 1.16″ Robinson Twp., 1.07″ Montague, 0.88″ W. Olive, 0.73″ Lawrence, 0.68″ Hart, 0.48″ Hudsonville and S. Haven, 0.44″ Fremont – just 0.02″ in G.R. and Battle Creek, .0.06″ Kalamazoo and only a trace in Lansing.
We’ll stay dry today and tomorrow with pleasant temperatures and low humidities. We’ll have a good chance of at least a couple periods of showers and maybe a thundershower or two from Saturday into Monday or Tuesday. Cool air for next week, with high temperatures in the 70s. The European model says we’ll struggle to reach 70° next Mon./Tues. and nothing warmer than low 80s thru Aug. 1.
Bill here – weather is my passion, but it still takes 2nd place to a “daddy-daughter day”. Daughter 2 and I went to dinner, then to the Tues.night concert at Meijer Gardens, then out for dessert. The storms have produced gusty winds, a dozen hail reports and heavy rain. The Muskegon airport had 1.21″ of rain in less than an hour. The Grand Rapids Airport so far has had only 0.02″. The heaviest storm/rain will continue to drop south thru Van Buren Co., Berrien and Cass Counties. Here’s storm reports. Temperatures fall from near 80° into the 60s as the storm and cold front comes through. Radar here should update automatically – lots of links for you to check out below and check the other threads for more on the severe weather threat this evening/night and the long-range outlook. Here’s simulated radar, which predicts evening t-storms. Here’s regional radar. The high temperatures in G.R. was 89°, so we didn’t make 90° and won’t for at least the next 10 days. The only place to make 90° was Holland, which seems kind of odd since the wind was coming off Lake Michigan. Looks like the wind was coming down a runway. The Muskegon beach had a high temperature of 77.2°.
These are the severe weather outlooks for this PM/night, tomorrow and Thurs. Note that the Slight Risk Area has been expanded east into SW Michigan, from Pentwater to Grand Rapids to Kalamazoo and south into Indiana. SPC says: “SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.” Many could use some rain, especially north of Muskegon and along the Indiana border. Today is our one shot at 90°. If we don’t make it today, we’ll have to wait until August for our next chance. This PM you can follow SPC severe weather watches, meso-scale discussions ans storm reports. Here’s Northern Plains radar and Great Lakes radar where you can watch the storms develop and move east. Here’s the GRR NWS discussion. The average wind speed in G.R. over the last four days has been just 4.1 mph. Today is also the 7th day in a row that the high temperature will be warmer than the day before.
Here’s U.S. wildfire statistics. For the last two year period, we’ve had below average numbers of wildfires and acres burned. Above average rainfall over much of the area east of the Rockies has made for very low wildfire statistics for the Eastern 2/3rds of the country. Typhoon Matmo heading into Taiwan and then mainland China. 6.9 magnitude earthquake in Figi.
The Michigan (and Indiana) Dept. of Environmental Quality has declared Monday to be an Air Quality Alert Day (you might remember these as “Ozone Action Days”…kind of like “global warming” has now been changed to “climate change” to cover more bases). It’s likely that they will declare Tuesday an Air Quality Alert Day, too The Advisory covers the lakeshore counties, Kent Co. and the Detroit area in Michigan and Lake, Porter and La Porte Counties in NW Indiana and the Chicago area. This is for Ozone levels marginally reaching the “unhealthy level for sensitive groups”. There was an Air Quality Alert Day issued for Sunday, but I did not see the readings reach “unhealthy levels”. So, unless someone can correct me, it looks like they were at least one day early. Here’s Ozone monitoring stations in Lower Michigan and Air Quality Index Values. Here’s past Air Quality and Ozone Action Days (only two last year). You can go to this website tomorrow and check the Ozone (AQI) levels and see if their forecast was correct. Remember, there are FREE rides on the RAPID in the Grand Rapids Area and the MAX (Macatawa Area Express) in the Holland/Zeeland area (fixed routes only) on Clean Air Action Days.
Wow! Check out the 9-day European model. That’s a 558 height (at the link) and would give us highs perhaps in the mid 60s if this comes true. The two images here (click on the images to enlarge) are the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for July 27-31. On the right is the NAEFS forecast for July 29 – August 4. Wow again! That’s a very cool pattern for mid-summer! Tomorrow is our only shot at 90-degres, maybe for the next two weeks.
Severe storms hit N. Dakota hard yesterday afternoon and evening. Storms produced 80 mph winds, large hail and at least one tornado. Wind reports of 80 mph winds in Center ND and 75 mph wind gusts in Syracuse and Wilton ND. Here’s storm reports. The storms continued east into Minnesota during the late night.
Click on the images to enlarge. These pics. are satellite views (from NASA and Earth Observatory) of the wildfires out West. The Carleton Complex Fire near Twisp, Washington is now the biggest fire ever in Washington State since records began (and I don’t know how long that has been). The fire has consumed roughly 238,000 acres (372 square miles). That’s roughly four times the size of Seattle. It’s thought the fire was started by lightning on July 14th. 154 structures have been lost to the fire with an estimated worth of five million dollars. There are 1,622 firefighters assigned to this fire, along with 11 helicopters and 132 fire engines. Fortunately, the heat wave has broken and temperatures are back mainly in the 70s to near 80 in the afternoon in that area. They have a chance of a shower tomorrow and a good chance of showers on Wednesday. Winds will not be too strong, so the weather looks good for making progress on containing this fire. For the entire U.S., both the number of fires and the acreage burned have been below average last year and so far this year. The total acreage burned so far in 2014 is 1,306, 163 acres – the annual average is 3,738,651.