Bill Steffen

Storm Threat Along and South of I-94

July 18th, 2015 at 6:53 pm by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

MD 1470 graphic Waterspout Lake Michigan 7 18 15   Tornado Watch cancelled for Kent, Ottawa, Muskegon, Allegan, Newaygo, Van Buren, Berrien and Cass Counties.  Counties most likely to still get severe weather are Branch and E. Calhoun.  Westnedge Ave. closed in Kalamazoo between Parkwood and Inkster – trees down, tree on house.    Possible waterspout on Lake Michigan here, west of Glenn (see pic.).  Most dangerous storm now east of Sturgis.   4 mi ESE of White Pigeon – numerous trees down, inc. a tree on a trailer – wind est. 65 mph along with a possible funnel cloud.  Hail reported in White Pigeon.  Tree down in Buchanan – Berrien Co.  Strong wind east of Sturgis.  Several trees down in SE Van Buren Co. from Decatur to Paw Paw New T-Storm.  Small tree down in Kent City.  7:46 – Shelf cloud moving through Calhoun Co.   4-foot waves in Grand Haven – stay out of the lake – strong currents can occur after the passage of a gusty line of storms.  7,985 Consumers Energy customers without power – inc. 3,186 in Kalamazoo Co.  and 1,931 in Kent Co. – mainly Sparta to Cedar Springs.  Here’s storm reports from N Indiana and the Michigan Counties that border Indiana…from Southwest Michigan, Northeast Illinois and Southeast Wisconsin.

Warning for Cass, St. Joseph and Branch Counties until 8 pm.        From the Storm Prediction Center:  “SUMMARY…THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS FROM NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. THE BEST THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM NCNTRL THROUGH NERN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI.

DISCUSSION…EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN IND NWWD INTO NWRN IND WHERE IT INTERSECTS ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NWRN IND THROUGH NRN IL. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. IT APPEARS THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL BE FROM NRN IND TO SWRN LOWER MI WHERE EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED /150-200 M2/S2/ JUST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DESPITE A PROPENSITY FOR THE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE…EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY FROM SWRN LOWER MI INTO NRN IND. SOME SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS FARTHER WEST ACROSS NRN IL BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL. A FEW ENHANCED CUMULUS PERSIST ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY…BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED AND THIS AREA IS LIKELY EXPERIENCING SOME DEEPER SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.”

T-Storm Warnings for Barry Co. until 7:45 pm and for Branch, St. Joseph and Cass Counties until  8 pm.  Gust to 39 mph at Holland St. Park,  41 mph in Allegan, 42 mph near Gobles, 43 mph at Benton Harbor, 46 mph at the S. Haven Beach, estimated gust to 55 mph in Kent City – large limbs down – and 65 mph just east of Sturgis and 4 mi. ESE of White Pigeon with multiple trees down.  Strong storms pushing from E. Van Buren and Cass Counties into Kalamazoo and St. Joseph Counties.  Expect gusts to 40 mph, heavy rain and intense lightning.


Tornado Watch

July 18th, 2015 at 5:05 pm by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

WW0438 Radar TORNADO WATCH until midnight!   Crunch time!   Strong winds approaching Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren and Ottawa Co.  Ahead of the storm, pick up anything that might fly around in a strong wind.  Keep the garage door closed, take down hanging baskets.   SPC says:  “SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW OVER SE WI/NE IL EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E OR ESE INTO PARTS OF LWR MI/NRN INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING…WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING S AND E OF THE CLUSTER. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND…MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL…AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.


60% Chance Tornado Watch – Within the Hour?

July 18th, 2015 at 4:24 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

MD 1467 graphicSPC meso – 60% chance watch for W. Michigan/N. Indiana – probably a Tornado Watch.

Gust to 72 mph reported Edgewater area – north side of Chicago.  Gust to 50 mph at Racine WI.  Public reports funnel cloud – Kenosha WI.  Tornado near Harvard IL (northwest of Chicago).  Damage Des Plaines IL.  Funnel E. Troy WI.  Over 2″ rain in 20 min. at Brooklyn WI.

Storm reports from NE Illinois and SE Wisconsin.

SPC says:  “PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT SUMMARY…STORMS SPREADING EWD TOWARD LK MI MAY EVENTUALLY POSE A SEVERE/TORNADO RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA. WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION…LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION APPROACHING WRN LK MI ATTM…WITH SEVERAL CELLS SHOWING SOME ROTATION OVER THE PAST HOUR — INCLUDING ONE TORNADO REPORT. THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A WEAK VORT MAX — SE OF THE MAIN SRN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO FEATURE — NOW MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI/LK SUPERIOR. AS AN EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATS NWD ACROSS NWRN INDIANA INTO SWRN LOWER MI…DIURNAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR NWD TOWARD GRR/MKG…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS CROSSING THE LAKE TO PERSIST/RE-INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MD AREA. WITH THE LATEST GRR VWP SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/INCREASING SPEED OF THE FLOW FIELD WITH HEIGHT…RISK FOR SEVERE/ROTATING STORMS SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE — POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.


Tornado Watch for S. Lake Michigan, WI, IL, IN, IA

July 18th, 2015 at 3:58 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

WW0436 Radar Here’s the Tornado Watch, which comes all the way to the West Michigan shore of Lake Michigan. This watch is until 10 pm CDT.  Here’s storm reports from Wisconsin…gusts to 55 mph with these storms.  Here’s SPC meso-discussions and current watches.  Here’s a satellite loop - the cirrus shield from the WI storms is already spreading into W. Michigan.  Here’s current conditions.  At 4 pm the temp./dewpoint is 85/70 in G.R. – it’s up to 87 degrees at Holland and S. Haven.  Midway is 91/76 and Gary IN is 90/79 – very moist air feeding into the storms.


Chance Evening Storms

July 18th, 2015 at 2:21 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Central Great Lakes sector loop     2:15 pm – One batch of storms moving into NW Ohio and the next batch increasing in SW Wisconsin.  Meso out for the next watches for S. Wisconsin/N Illinois and for NW Ohio and maybe far E. Indiana.  SPC has upgraded to an Enhanced Outlook Area for much of S. Wisconsin, N. Illinois, N. Indiana, NW Ohio, E. Iowa and a small portion of SW Michigan.  Temperatures slowly recovering…up to 84 at the Muskegon Airport.

Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar.Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the h[-/pb.21fcdgcottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map102bn


Long-Lived T-Storm Complex Reaches MI

July 18th, 2015 at 4:49 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Central Great Lakes sector loop   Storm Grand Haven 7 17 15 Andy Schut Grand Haven Pic. of the storm coming into Grand Haven from Andy Schut. Click to enlarge. Peak wind gusts:  55 mph Hart, estimated 55 mph 2 mi. N. Grand Haven, 52 mph Dorr, est. 50 mph W. Martin, 45 mph Ludington and Wolf Lake (Muskegon Co.), 43 mph Pentwater, 42 mph S. Haven Beach and Reed City, 40 mph Kent City, 37 mph Holland (airport) and Walker,  at least 31 mph Fremont and Big Rapids.  Small branches down in Kent, Ottawa, Muskegon, Oceana and Allegan Counties.  Here’s local storm reports for W. Michigan.  Here’s a satellite loop – as I write this about 10:15 am you can see a nice outflow boundary across N. Illinois.  Rainfall:  0.6″ Grand Haven, Muskegon had 0.48″ in an hour, just 0.10″ at Ludington.  Here’s Wisconsin storm reports – 3 injured, 14 tents blown down at Rock USA in Oshkosh.  More Wisconsin storm reports.  Here’s U.S. storm reports for last night – note the swath of wind damage in Minnesota and Wisconsin.   I don’t think there was enough wind to cause a significant seiche on Lake Michigan, but it always bears watching after a storm like this.

As I write this shortly before 5 am – there’s a nice bow-echo thunderstorm complex in western Wisconsin.  It produced a lot of wind damage in Minnesota, including a 62 mph gust at the St. Paul Airport and one short-lived tornado.   Reports of flipped cars and structural damage 4mi WSW of Watertown, MN.   Right now it’s doubtful that it will continue thru Lower Michigan…it’s also aiming a little north.  I’m going to get some sleep, so I’ll let the comments follow these storms into the mid-late morning.  The GFS MOS from the overnight run gives G.R. a 0% chance of rain today and the NAM was only 4%.  It looked very strange to see number that low.

Today will be the warmest day since 9.10.13.  We have a Heat Advisory from Ottawa, Kent and Ionia Counties to the south.  It’s also a Clean Air Action Day.  Here’s current conditions in MI.    Here’s U.S. Storm Reports from Friday.

Also:  Play was suspended at the British Open this morning because of strong winds.  Big t-storms southeast of Las Vegas NV.  Confirmed tornado located near Green Isle, MN.  1.91″ of rain in an hour at Peotone IL – just SW of Chicago.  Flash flooding and evacuations at Mansfield IN.  Record snow in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia.  Drones causing problems for fire air ops. at the I-15 wildfire…confirm 5 drones delayed fire aircraft by 15 mins.   Four structures and 20 vehicles were burned.  One fatality, 3 injured by lightning in Colorado.  Large Magnitude-7.5 earthquake strikes Solomon Islands – no significant tsunami.  2015 is one of only 8 yrs since 1900 that New York City has seen just one 90-degree day through July 15.    Welcome showers and even a few t-showers in S. California…a little moisture pushed up from Hurricane Delores.  Lightning hits Freedom Tower in NYCBeautiful day in Australia.  British Open golf suspended, gusts to 49 mph.

Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar.Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the h[-/pb.21fcdgcottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map102bn


Slight Risk of Severe Storms

July 18th, 2015 at 1:59 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook These are the severe weather outlooks for Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3. Much of Lower Michigan is in the Slight Risk Areas for today (Sat.) and tomorrow (Sun.) mainly for wind damage.  For today, SPC says:  ” THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI AND POTENTIALLY LOWER MI…ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING/WINDS ALOFT. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000-5000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR BY PEAK HEATING. SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE NEAR THE COLD FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WI/EASTERN IA…POTENTIALLY MAXIMIZED NEAR WHERE THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT…AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF MI…”

Check out these links:
Here’s regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven. There’s new threads below this one…if you have time, scroll down and keep reading. Lake MI water temps. Sunday ranged from 50 (Grand Haven) to 65 (Pentwater).

 


Hot and Humid Air

July 17th, 2015 at 11:53 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

muskegon glerl    south haven glerlThunderstorms quickly exploded into existence from Berrien Co. to Gary, Indiana Friday evening.  The storms produced very heary rain and intense lightning.  -  Gusts to 50 mph and an inch of rain in less than an hour in N. Indiana.  After a couple hours the storms diminished nearly as fast as they formed.

Here’s two late Friday morning pics. from the GLERL cameras at Muskegon (cloudy and foggy) and S. Haven (where it’s sunny). At 4 pm, G.R. was 83 with a muggy 73 dewpoint, Kalamazoo (with some sun) is up to 88 with a 73 dewpoint.  Where the sun has been out all morning is 92 in Chicago (Midway – with a 72 dewpoint) and at Springfield IL it’s 93 with a 79 dewpoint and a heat index already up to 110!  The growing corn and soybeans are throwing a lot of water into the air right now.   Cool water at the shore will keep temps. cooler there this weekend.  Water temperatures Friday morning included 50 at Muskegon and Saugatuck and 52 at Grand Haven.  Holland S.P. had 60.  Those water temps. will warm with the southwest wind.  The air temp. at 4 pm at the Muskegon Beach was only 66.0…and at S. Haven it’s 73.6 – so the Lake Michigan shoreline is the place to stay cool.  Check out the satellite loop (daytime).  Here’s the updated severe weather outlook areas from the Storm Prediction Center.    Clean Air Action Day Today (Sat.).

Also – nice airplane view of downtown Chicago at middayrain coming to Arizona and even some for S. Californiaunusual snow and cold in AustraliaHurricane Delores weakening to a depression, though moisture pumped north will give t-storms to the Southwest U.S.   Water on the greens at the British Open (wind gusts to 30 mph, too).  Hurricane Nangka at landfall in Japan.


Here comes the Heat and Humidity

July 17th, 2015 at 2:41 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

lake michigan tom DeVette ReportIt   We’re moving into the warmest week since 2013.  Here’s the forecast high temps. off the GFS model overnight run for G.R. starting with today (Fri.):  86, 93, 87, 88, 88, 84, 86, 87.   The overnight run of the NAM has 85, 89, 89 for the next 3 days.  Both models give G.R. a low of 75 Sat. night, so the air conditioners will be running.  The chance of rain is not zero, but it’s low for this afternoon and Saturday.  Radar is in the thread below.  Neat pic. here from Tom DeVette.

Also:  AWESOME weather video here.   Lake Michigan water temps.  Rain delay at the British Open as I write this…pretty windy there today and especially tomorrow.  From Dr. Ryan Maue:  “Over next 7-days, for long-period record stations (~100 years), no record highs forecast by NWS over Lower 48″.   “Action on Climate Change” lowest priority of 16-30 year olds.  A quadruple zap in Carlsbad NM.  If you haven’t seen it yet, this video is worth seeing.


Showers and T-Storms Tonight

July 17th, 2015 at 12:44 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Central Great Lakes sector loop    We have a good chance (90%) of at least one shower or t-storm tonight.  Severe weather is not impossible, but not likely.  Most showers should move east of our area by 8 am and we’ll become partly sunny, warm and humid with highs in the mid-upper 80s (cooler at Lake Michigan).  Saturday will be the hottest day with highs inland in the low 90s.  Most of us will see a dry Saturday, with a better bet for a shower or storm on Sunday.    At 2 am – pretty good storm in Berrien Co. and lightning now west of Whitehall.

Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar.Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the h[-/pb.21fcdgcottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map102bn