Showers will spread from NW to SE during the late afternoon and evening. The morning run of the NAM (caribou) has the rain in G.R. mainly falls between 5 pm and 7 am tomorrow morning. It has rain reaching Kalamazoo by around 8-9 pm. Plan on taking the ponchos and rain gear if you’re headed out to a game this Friday evening. The NAM (car.) gives us 1/4 to 3/5ths inch of rain tonight. It’s east of us by around 10 am Saturday with the sun coming out Sat. PM. The model also gives G.R. a low of 36 Sunday morning, so we may be looking at Frost Advisories for Sat. night. We’re going to cover 21 games tonight, inc. Lowell/East G.R., Mona Shores/Rockford and Portage Northern/St. Joseph.
Frost and freeze in parts of the U.P. this AM – morning lows: 33 Marquette, 31 Houghton, 29 Watersmeet, 28 Doe Lake, 26 Kenton. A mix of rain and snow last night at Ironwood.
This picture from www.uppermichiganssource.com is Lakeshore Boulevard in Marquette today. The combination of strong north winds and rising Lake Superior water levels caused waves to crash over the boulder-wall and onto the roadway Thursday morning. More pictures and video here.
The water level of Lake Superior is up 1″ in the last month (at a time when the lake often loses water) and is now up 8″ in the past year. Superior is now 7″ higher than the long-term average water level. The water level of Lake Michigan/Huron (one lake for lake level purposes) is up another inch in the last week and (drum roll) the water level is now one inch ABOVE the average September lake level! Get this…Lake Michigan/Huron is now 19 inches higher than it was one year ago, an unprecedented 12-month increase! That’s a gain of 7.41 trillion gallons of water in just 12 months. Lake Huron has gained 7.6 trillion gallons of water in the past year, Lake Superior 4.4 trillion gallons and Lake Erie 1.02 trillion gallons. That’s a total gain of 20.4 TRILLION gallons of water to the Great Lakes in just 12 months! Lake Erie is 6″ higher than it was one year ago and 6″ above the average water level. Lake Ontario is unchanged in the last year and 3″ above the average water level. Lake St Clair is up 11″ year-to-year and is 7″ above the September average level. Quite the opposite from this article (press release) that came out only 2 1/2 months ago.
It was only 52° at noon here on the beach at Muskegon (pic. from the Muskegon GLERL cam. – from NOAA Coastwatch). We’ve had a band of lake-effect light rain that we have been able to see coming into W. Allegan and Van Buren Co. There are still a few sprinkles and pockets of drizzle/mist elsewhere, but it’s all pretty light. We’ll have a chilly night tonight. The morning run of the NAM (caribou) takes G.R. to 39.3° at daybreak. We’ll be dry during most of the day tomorrow, but rain moves in for tomorrow night from NW to SE. The NAM (car.) has rain starting in Muskegon around 6 pm, G.R. at 7 pm, Kalamazoo at 10-11 am and not until around 1-2 am for Jackson. So the Friday night football games may be wet (and chilly) esp. to the west and north of G.R. It’s not impossible that really cold spots (mainly north of Kent Co.) could see a little scattered light frost either tomorrow AM or Sunday AM (when the wind should be calm).
Heavy snow in Custer SD. Earliest significant snow on record at Rapid City (and records go back to 1888). Quite the cold shot from E. Canada to the S. Plains to E. Washington/Oregon. A lot of the parameters that led to the cold winter from the N. Rockies to the Great Lakes are still in place now. Monroe MI in the southeast corner of the state had 4.72″ of rain yesterday! Heavy rain hit much of the state – 3.20″ at Marquette (city) and 2.31″ at Escanaba. The most in the U.P. was 4.31″ in Harvey. Big Bay had 3.34″. The low temperature this am was 32° at Stambaugh, 36° at Herman and Paulding and 38° at Ironwood and Marquette (airport). Grand Rapids was 2.7° warmer than average for the first 10 days of Sept. – but we’ll eat through that in the next week.
The cold air is pouring into Lower Michigan and it’s going to be sticking around for awhile. I don’t think we reach 70 again until the middle of next week. The gusty winds have caused some power outages. As of 10:40 pm, Consumers Energy reports 2,926 customers without power. That includes 493 customers in Kent Co., 738 in Allegan Co. and 484 in Moncalm Co. and 406 in Kalamazoo Co. This is the 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. We know it’s going to be colder than average for the next 6 days and this map takes us to Sept. 16-20. It shows a greater chance of cooler than average temperatures from much of Texas to the Great Lakes and east to the Atlantic.
Shiverin’ Snowman look at this! At 2 am Heavy snow was falling in Custer, SD, located near Mount Rushmore. Great Falls, Montana had snow yesterday. Fairbanks, Alaska has not had snow yet. At midnight, Eagle River, Wisconsin was reporting “flurries”.
A kayaker had to be rescued by surfers at Grand Haven State Park. The peak wind gust at the Grand Haven Steelheaders Weather station was 40 mph. The biggest waves at the Port Sheldon buoy this afternoon was 9.8 feet. We had the rescue live on 24-Hour News 8 at 6 pm. We’ll have the story and interviews with the rescuers on the news tonight at 10 pm on WXSP and at 11 pm on WOOD-TV-8. We think the video will make the TODAY SHOW tomorrow morning – so watch DAYBREAK and the TODAY Show tomorrow morning. Here’s a link to our web story. Here’s a live picture of the waves at Grand Haven State Park right now.
Two of Bill’s Blog’s favorite people will be on DAYBREAK Thurs. AM to talk about beach safety and the rescue yesterday. They are Bob Pratt, Director of Education, Great Lakes Surf & Rescue Project and later in the program he’ll be joined by, Vicki Cech – who began the Beach Survival Challenge to purchase liferings and promote beach safety. Tune into Daybreak from 4-7 am on WOOD-TV Thursday am.
Five tornadoes hit near Cleveland OH this PM – near the towns of Rittman, Stow, Streetsburo and Hiram. Story on Stow damage. There has been building damage and a road is blocked by debris. Wind damage was reported at a mall near St. Louis and at Salem, Oblong and Breese, Illinois and at Lizton, Odon and Farmland, Indiana. Here’s Storm Reports for Weds. from SPC. Most of West Michigan had 2/3rds to 1 inch of rain. Coldwater reports 1.7″ of rain. 4.5″ of rain fell in Huntington IN. I-475 was closed in Toledo due to flooding. Waves to 10-feet at the Port Sheldon buoy Weds. evening. Gusts to 45 mph at Castle Park in Allegan Co., 43 mph at Holland Harbor, 40 mph at Grand Haven (channel), 39 mph at Muskegon, 37 mph at S. Haven. Here’s radar for SW Michigan, SE Michigan, NW Ohio, N Indiana, Indianapolis and regional radar.
Click on the images to enlarge. These are maps from the Storm Prediction Center. The first shows the possibility of tornadoes and shows only a low 2% area from east of St. Louis to Hillsdale MI to Monroe Co. south into NW Ohio. This area does include St. Louis, Indianapolis and Fort Wayne. The middle map shows a 5% probability of severe criteria (1″ in diameter or greater) hail. This area includes areas south of a line from S. Bend to Port Huron. The final map on the right shows the risk of severe criteria winds (gusts to 58 mph/wind damage). This is the greatest threat today. They show a 5% chance south of a line from Holland to Grand Rapids to just south of Saginaw, the 15% area is pretty much identical to the Slight Risk Area and includes areas from Lafayette IN, to west of Ft. Wayne to Battle Creek to Port Huron – in Michigan this would be along and east/south of I-69 and the greater 30% risk is a narrow band from the St. Louis area across central Illinois to near Indianapolis. You can follow the day’s severe storm reports here. Here’s GRR radar, regional radar and a surface weather map, which shows the surge of warm, moist air coming up toward the Risk Area and the contrasting cool air moving down through the Northern Plains. As I write this, the latest HRRR model rainfall forecast shows heavy rain coming across W. Michigan. Kirksville, MO now up to 9.16 inches of rain in past 24 hours, plus wind damage.
At 1:10 pm, we have a uniform area of light-moderate rain over much of the area (moderate rain at my house. The temperature and dewpoint in G.R. are both 69 with a SSE wind at 20 mph. Midway Airport in Chicago is 75/70. The cold front is Madison WI to Quincy IL and making steady progress to the east. Solid cloud over over the S. Great Lakes. The clouds and steady rain are holding down temperatures and hence instability, lowering the chance of severe weather. Winds will stay breezy out of the south and shift to the west behind a strong cold front, which will bring in the coldest air since mid-May, with temperatures during much of the daytime in the 50s. Another slug of steady rain moves up Friday evening/early night, which could bring some cool and wet weather for the Football Frenzy games Friday evening.
Overnight model data: European gives G.R. 0.98″ of rain in 6 hours this AM into early PM and 1.09″ total with another 0.40″ Friday night into early Sat. and 0.05″ Monday. The GFS plot has 0.66″ for G.R. today, another 0.41″ Friday night and 0.14″ on Monday. It gives G.R. 40 deg. early Fri. am and 39 deg. early Sun. am. The GFS-plot doesn’t take G.R. to 70 (after today) until the 21st. This is definitely a swing to a cooler pattern. The NAM (caribou) has 0.78″ for G.R. today. 100% chance of rain – good day to keep the umbrella/rain coat with you. Gale Warnings are out for Lake Michigan from 11 am today to 11 am Thurs. AM. Here’s the latest GRR NWS discussion (worth the read this AM).
Monday afternoon in Cut Bank, MT: 81 degrees, 10 degrees above average. This morning it’s snowing there. New tropical storm (Odile) could bring more heavy rain to NW Mexico and the Southwest U.S.
These Severe Weather Outlook Area for today and tomorrow. The Weds. Outlook includes S/SE Lower Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois, and SE Missouri (inc. St. Louis). Note that SPC has shifted the Slight Risk Area to the south. It still includes everyone south of a line from Benton Harbor to just north of Lansing to Port Huron. The early morning update does NOT include Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Holland, but DOES include Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Charlotte and Jackson.
The Monday evening run of the NAM (caribou) has pretty steady, measurable rain in G.R. starting around 8-9 am. We get 0.78″ of rain through the evening. Much of it is steady rain without much thunder. The fastest steady wind on that model is 21 mph at 4 pm. Gusts would be above that. The temperature gets to 75 deg. The temperatures plummet behind the cold front with temps. Thurs. PM peaking at 60 and the early morning temp. in G.R. Friday morning at 39.5. The model gives Jackson 1.25″. The NAM also gives G.R. another 0.38″ of rain late Friday into Friday night with Friday night temps. in the mid 40s. HPC’s 7-day precipitation map shows heavy rain of 2-3″ in SW Michigan. See the radar and lots of links in the next thread below.
Just got home from Illinois, unlocked the front door oh boy! Jack can link to the rest of the song. Coming up I-196 we saw the BIG, full, orange Harvest Moon coming up on the horizon as we made the turn to the east-northeast in Holland. Both my cats were at the door to welcome us home. Today (Tue.) my brother took off work (he makes guitars for Parker during the day, plays guitar on weekends – he has gigs next Fri. night and Sun. pm). We rode bicycles to the Chicago Botanic Gardens, while my wife drove my mother there (after a stop at the Thrift Store). We had a nice lunch on the terrace, then walked to the Rose Garden and Japanese Garden. It was a perfect day, warm with a light breeze off Lake Michigan. It was slow going on the expressways through Chicago, but traffic flowed better after we got past Gary, Indiana. Gas was $3.99 in the city of Chicago – we filled up for $3.47 in Indiana.
This is the map of storm reports for Tuesday from the Storm Prediction Center. This is the storm that is moving ENE toward Michigan. As I write this, they report 4 tornadoes, 21 wind damage reports (inc. a gust to 92 mph near Scott City, KS) and 24 reports of hail 1″ in diameter or greater. The storm system is intensifying. Very heavy rain falling from this system. In just one hour 3.8″ of rain fell near New Virginia, IA. HRRR model forecasts 6″ of rain WSW of Dubuque. Also: 1.72″ of rain fell in just one hour near Bouse, AZ. In less than 3 hours, 1.44″ fell in Yuma, AZ, around 43% of the normal yearly rainfall. After severe flooding, 40-plus miles of I-15 is closed both ways north of Las Vegas Unseasonably cold air coming for the U.S. between the Rockies and Appalachians…cool air crosses the Rio Grande into N Mexico. 12.21″ of rain fell near Smithfield, VA, in 24 hours as of 9 a.m. EDT Tuesday, according to NWS employee. Magnitude-6.5 quake strikes 76 miles SE off Modayang, Indonesia; no tsunami. There could be snow flurries in Denver Friday AM.