Here’s a picture of the Muskegon Channel (from NOAA Coastwatch) around 3 pm Friday – showing at least 5 boats – and I bet there were be more than that today (Sat.). Also, the active regions of the sun make it look like a scary pumpkin (from NASA). This will be a beautiful, sunny day with highs in the mid (maybe even upper) 50s after a frosty start. Sunday the NAM and GFS are dry…the European model gives G.R. 0.06″ of rain late in the day. I favor day at this time, though clouds should push in from the southwest by late in the day. The GFS ups the chance of rain to 75% for Monday and the NAM has 63% – I have out 80%. Monday won’t be an all-day rain, but a few showers are likely. It’ll get breezy on Monday (SE 12-20 mph in the PM). The GFSX has the chance of rain for G.R. at 94% on Monday and 100% on Tuesday. I’ve got 90% out for Tues. Showers would end early Weds. and we’d be partly sunny Weds. PM and Thurs. The European (consistently, I will add) develops a painfully slow moving low pressure system that produces a LOT of rain here (0.06″ late Sun., 0.08″ Sun. night, 0.04″ Mon., 1.00″ Mon. night, 1.36″ Tues., 0.06″ Tues. night, 0.26″ Weds., 0.16″ Weds. night., 0.03″ Thurs., 0.01″ Thurs. night and 0.02″ on Fri. – that’s 3.08″ there and that would not be good for farmers proceeding with the fall harvest. So, let’s root for the GFS and hope it’s right in shoving this system east on Weds. Skiing in Colorado. Volcano in Indonesia.
Michigan is idle this week. Michigan St. is at Indiana. That game is on ESPN at 3:30 pm. Western plays at Bowling Green at 2 pm and Central hosts Ball St. at 3:30 pm. The big game of the day is #5 Notre Dame at #2 Florida St. You can see that game at 8 pm on WOTV4. I’ll throw this in for Jack Doles…Nebraska at Northwestern at 7:30 pm on the Big Ten Network. Ferris is at Ohio Dominican at 1 pm. Let’s see if they can keep the streak going. GVSU is up at Michigan Tech at 1 pm. The Wings host Toronto at 7 pm. The Lions host New Orleans at 1 pm on Sunday – that could be a good game.
Click on the pic. to enlarge. This is sunset Thursday evening (10/9/14) from the Muskegon GLERL camera (from NOAA Coastwatch). The water level of Lake Michigan/Huron (one lake for lake level purposes, at the same level, connected at the Strait of Mackinac) is unchanged in the last month. However, the level is 19″ higher than the level one year ago. The level is now 4″ above the long-term October average. Lake Superior is also unchanged in the last month. Superior is up 10″ year-to-year and it’s 8″ above the long-term October average. Superior is 24″ above the lowest October level reached in 1925 and 8″ below the highest October level, which occurred in 1985. Lake Erie is 4″ higher than one year ago and 7″ above the century average for October and Lake Ontario is 2″ below the level of one year ago and exactly at the average water level for October. Lake St. Clair is 9″ higher than it was one year ago, and 6″ above the long-term average. The outflow from Lake Superior down the St. Mary’s River into Lake Huron continues to be “well above” average and that is expected to continue through mid-fall. The outflow out of Lake Erie down the Niagara River is above average and that will also continue to be the case through October.
We have a Frost Advisory for everyone north of a line from S. Haven to Detroit. Even south of that line there will probably be some isolated frost. Technically, the Advisory is in effect from 2 am to 8 am. Most low temperatures will be in the low-mid 30s. The cold spots will reach the mid-upper 20s. This (Thurs.) mornings low temperatures included 23° at Leota (Clare Co.), 24° in Baldwin, 27° at Cadillac, 28° in Wellston (Manistee Co.), 29° Reed City, 31° Entrican (Montcalm Co.), 32° Big Rapids and Fremont and 33° in Belding. We’ll likely have Frost Advisories Friday night/Saturday AM and perhaps even Saturday night/Sunday AM. After these 3 nights, we should be frost free through the rest of next week. Small Craft Advisories expired at 6 pm and waves should diminish to 0-2 feet for tomorrow and Saturday.
Click on the images to enlarge. These eclipse pictures from the Grand Haven beach were taken by Mike Slootmaker, who for many years was a teacher in Fremont. He’s retired now and living in Arizona, but is here visiting right now. Quite a temperature contrast this AM. At 4 am the temperature was 28 in Cadillac, 32 in Big Rapids (with clear skies and a light breeze). There are high clouds along and south of I-96. At Benton Harbor it was 53 deg. at 4 am with a wind coming off the relatively warmer water of Lake Michigan. Look for partly to mostly sunny skies (more clouds, some thin, from Kent Co. to the south). There will likely be Frost Advisories for early Friday and especially early Saturday mornings. We’ll be partly to mostly sunny for Thurs./Fri./Sat. with PM temps. in the mid-upper 50s. It won’t be quite as windy today and winds will be light Friday and Saturday. Sunday clouds will increase. Most of Sunday should be dry, a shower could sneak in late Sunday. Rain is likely Sunday night into Tuesday. The GFS gives G.R. 0.82″ of rain from Sunday night to Tuesday and the European has 1.55″, so this will be another soaking rain. After a couple of dreary days Monday and Tuesday, it’ll be mostly sunny again for Weds. and Thurs. of next week.
Click on the pics. to enlarge. The image on the left is fall colors in the Saugatuck area (from Jack Martin). The image on the right is a noon shot from the Muskegon Glerl camera showing the whitecaps on Lake Michigan with the brisk west wind. Here’s some peak gusts Weds. PM: 44 mph Lansing, 40 mph East G.R., 39 mph Ionia and Big Rapids, 38 mph Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Alma, 37 mph Holland.
The weather looks partly sunny and dry through Saturday. Saturday will be the brighter half of the weekend, with a rather wet period shaping up from Sunday PM into Tuesday. High temperatures the next several days will be mid 50s to low 60s. It’ll be cool at night with a chance of scattered frost. The most likely time for that will be early Fri. am and early Sat. am. The overnight run of the GFS-plot has 0.60″ of rain for G.R. from Sun. PM into Monday and another 0.08″ on Tues. The European has 0.34″ Sun. into Sun. night and another 1.64″ from Monday PM into Tues. We’ve already had over 3″ of rain in G.R. and over 3 1/2″ of rain in Kalamazoo this month. The Hunter’s moon will continue to shine the next several nights.
The high temperature map from Tuesday shows warm air in the South and West. High temps. included 101 at Mineral Wells TX, 98 at Dallas TX, 91 at Wichita KS, 90 at Phoenix AZ and San Diego CA. It reached 88 at Little Rock AR, 87 at Orlando FL, 84 at Charleston SC, 83 in Portland OR, 79 at Helena MT, 77 at Denver CO and San Francisco CA. Highs were only in the 40s at Houghton MI and at Duluth and International Falls MN. Some cool pictures here. The eye of Typhoon Vongfong at sunrise. This is a strong Category 5 storm, winds to 180 mph.
Click on the images to enlarge. There was a lunar eclipse Weds. AM. This occurs when the moon is in the full phase and when it passes through the shadow of the Earth. The eclipse started at 6:25 am EDT, go into the full phase (where the moon will appear reddish and dimmer) at 6:54 pm EDT. The full eclipse will end at 7:24 am. The moon will be in the western sky, opposite to the rising sun. Here’s a nice write-up from meteorologist Ellen Bacca. NOTE: I got up to watch the eclipse from our front porch. It was nice to get mostly clear skies across a large section of the Great Lakes.
The last of the showers will be moving out of the area this evening. Small hail and gusty winds have been reported with the bigger storms. Here in G.R. we’ve had measurable rain 6 days in a row, including today. Rainfall for the first week of October: Kalamazoo 3.56″, Grand Rapids 3.21″, Holland 1.94″. SPC issued a Mesoscale Discussion for N. Indiana. We’ve had a few severe hail and wind reports from N. Indiana, with quite a line of wind damage reports across N. Kentucky. We’ve had a little sunshine, but skies will go mostly cloudy as the showers move in from west to east. It’s a little breezy – low 60s at early afternoon in most areas. The wind will shift from the S-SW early, then shift more westerly behind a (fairly weak) cold front for tomorrow.
I haven’t talked about Sept. 2014 yet. Click on the graphics to enlarge. The first Graphic is temperature relative to average. More of Michigan and the Midwest was cooler than average than warmer. There were some cool nights across the Corn Belt from Iowa to Ohio, but little frost. The image on the right is rainfall relative to average. Much of the SW U.S. had above average rainfall. You can see the heavier rains in S. New Mexico from the moisture from Hurricane Norbert. Heavy rain also fell in parts of Florida and the western Washington State. More after the news.
9:30 pm The showers and t-showers moved east and weakened. We had a gust to 47 mph at Battle Creek. There was a reported gust to 72 mph at the Charlotte (Eaton Co. ) Airport, but no reports of damage, so we are doubting that one a little. Many reports of pea-sized hail with thundershowers today. More showers are likely tomorrow, mainly in the P.M. Mainly dry weather is expected from Weds. thru Saturday. At least scattered frost is likely from Weds. thru Saturday AM.