Tornado Watch cancelled for Kent, Ottawa, Muskegon, Allegan, Newaygo, Van Buren, Berrien and Cass Counties. Counties most likely to still get severe weather are Branch and E. Calhoun. Westnedge Ave. closed in Kalamazoo between Parkwood and Inkster – trees down, tree on house. Possible waterspout on Lake Michigan here, west of Glenn (see pic.). Most dangerous storm now east of Sturgis. 4 mi ESE of White Pigeon – numerous trees down, inc. a tree on a trailer – wind est. 65 mph along with a possible funnel cloud. Hail reported in White Pigeon. Tree down in Buchanan – Berrien Co. Strong wind east of Sturgis. Several trees down in SE Van Buren Co. from Decatur to Paw Paw New T-Storm. Small tree down in Kent City. 7:46 – Shelf cloud moving through Calhoun Co. 4-foot waves in Grand Haven – stay out of the lake – strong currents can occur after the passage of a gusty line of storms. 7,985 Consumers Energy customers without power – inc. 3,186 in Kalamazoo Co. and 1,931 in Kent Co. – mainly Sparta to Cedar Springs. Here’s storm reports from N Indiana and the Michigan Counties that border Indiana…from Southwest Michigan, Northeast Illinois and Southeast Wisconsin.
Warning for Cass, St. Joseph and Branch Counties until 8 pm. From the Storm Prediction Center: “SUMMARY…THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS FROM NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. THE BEST THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM NCNTRL THROUGH NERN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI.
DISCUSSION…EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN IND NWWD INTO NWRN IND WHERE IT INTERSECTS ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NWRN IND THROUGH NRN IL. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE. IT APPEARS THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL BE FROM NRN IND TO SWRN LOWER MI WHERE EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED /150-200 M2/S2/ JUST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DESPITE A PROPENSITY FOR THE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE…EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY FROM SWRN LOWER MI INTO NRN IND. SOME SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS FARTHER WEST ACROSS NRN IL BUT IS MORE CONDITIONAL. A FEW ENHANCED CUMULUS PERSIST ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY…BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED AND THIS AREA IS LIKELY EXPERIENCING SOME DEEPER SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.”
T-Storm Warnings for Barry Co. until 7:45 pm and for Branch, St. Joseph and Cass Counties until 8 pm. Gust to 39 mph at Holland St. Park, 41 mph in Allegan, 42 mph near Gobles, 43 mph at Benton Harbor, 46 mph at the S. Haven Beach, estimated gust to 55 mph in Kent City – large limbs down – and 65 mph just east of Sturgis and 4 mi. ESE of White Pigeon with multiple trees down. Strong storms pushing from E. Van Buren and Cass Counties into Kalamazoo and St. Joseph Counties. Expect gusts to 40 mph, heavy rain and intense lightning.
TORNADO WATCH until midnight! Crunch time! Strong winds approaching Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren and Ottawa Co. Ahead of the storm, pick up anything that might fly around in a strong wind. Keep the garage door closed, take down hanging baskets. SPC says: “SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW OVER SE WI/NE IL EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E OR ESE INTO PARTS OF LWR MI/NRN INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING…WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING S AND E OF THE CLUSTER. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND…MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL…AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.
SPC meso – 60% chance watch for W. Michigan/N. Indiana – probably a Tornado Watch.
Gust to 72 mph reported Edgewater area – north side of Chicago. Gust to 50 mph at Racine WI. Public reports funnel cloud – Kenosha WI. Tornado near Harvard IL (northwest of Chicago). Damage Des Plaines IL. Funnel E. Troy WI. Over 2″ rain in 20 min. at Brooklyn WI.
SPC says: “PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT SUMMARY…STORMS SPREADING EWD TOWARD LK MI MAY EVENTUALLY POSE A SEVERE/TORNADO RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA. WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION…LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION APPROACHING WRN LK MI ATTM…WITH SEVERAL CELLS SHOWING SOME ROTATION OVER THE PAST HOUR — INCLUDING ONE TORNADO REPORT. THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF A WEAK VORT MAX — SE OF THE MAIN SRN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO FEATURE — NOW MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI/LK SUPERIOR. AS AN EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATS NWD ACROSS NWRN INDIANA INTO SWRN LOWER MI…DIURNAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR NWD TOWARD GRR/MKG…WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS CROSSING THE LAKE TO PERSIST/RE-INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MD AREA. WITH THE LATEST GRR VWP SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/INCREASING SPEED OF THE FLOW FIELD WITH HEIGHT…RISK FOR SEVERE/ROTATING STORMS SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE — POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
Pic. of the storm coming into Grand Haven from Andy Schut. Click to enlarge. Peak wind gusts: 55 mph Hart, estimated 55 mph 2 mi. N. Grand Haven, 52 mph Dorr, est. 50 mph W. Martin, 45 mph Ludington and Wolf Lake (Muskegon Co.), 43 mph Pentwater, 42 mph S. Haven Beach and Reed City, 40 mph Kent City, 37 mph Holland (airport) and Walker, at least 31 mph Fremont and Big Rapids. Small branches down in Kent, Ottawa, Muskegon, Oceana and Allegan Counties. Here’s local storm reports for W. Michigan. Here’s a satellite loop – as I write this about 10:15 am you can see a nice outflow boundary across N. Illinois. Rainfall: 0.6″ Grand Haven, Muskegon had 0.48″ in an hour, just 0.10″ at Ludington. Here’s Wisconsin storm reports – 3 injured, 14 tents blown down at Rock USA in Oshkosh. More Wisconsin storm reports. Here’s U.S. storm reports for last night – note the swath of wind damage in Minnesota and Wisconsin. I don’t think there was enough wind to cause a significant seiche on Lake Michigan, but it always bears watching after a storm like this.
As I write this shortly before 5 am – there’s a nice bow-echo thunderstorm complex in western Wisconsin. It produced a lot of wind damage in Minnesota, including a 62 mph gust at the St. Paul Airport and one short-lived tornado. Reports of flipped cars and structural damage 4mi WSW of Watertown, MN. Right now it’s doubtful that it will continue thru Lower Michigan…it’s also aiming a little north. I’m going to get some sleep, so I’ll let the comments follow these storms into the mid-late morning. The GFS MOS from the overnight run gives G.R. a 0% chance of rain today and the NAM was only 4%. It looked very strange to see number that low.
These are the severe weather outlooks for Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3. Much of Lower Michigan is in the Slight Risk Areas for today (Sat.) and tomorrow (Sun.) mainly for wind damage. For today, SPC says: ” THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI AND POTENTIALLY LOWER MI…ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING/WINDS ALOFT. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000-5000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR BY PEAK HEATING. SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE NEAR THE COLD FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WI/EASTERN IA…POTENTIALLY MAXIMIZED NEAR WHERE THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT…AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF MI…”
Thunderstorms quickly exploded into existence from Berrien Co. to Gary, Indiana Friday evening. The storms produced very heary rain and intense lightning. - Gusts to 50 mph and an inch of rain in less than an hour in N. Indiana. After a couple hours the storms diminished nearly as fast as they formed.
Here’s two late Friday morning pics. from the GLERL cameras at Muskegon (cloudy and foggy) and S. Haven (where it’s sunny). At 4 pm, G.R. was 83 with a muggy 73 dewpoint, Kalamazoo (with some sun) is up to 88 with a 73 dewpoint. Where the sun has been out all morning is 92 in Chicago (Midway – with a 72 dewpoint) and at Springfield IL it’s 93 with a 79 dewpoint and a heat index already up to 110! The growing corn and soybeans are throwing a lot of water into the air right now. Cool water at the shore will keep temps. cooler there this weekend. Water temperatures Friday morning included 50 at Muskegon and Saugatuck and 52 at Grand Haven. Holland S.P. had 60. Those water temps. will warm with the southwest wind. The air temp. at 4 pm at the Muskegon Beach was only 66.0…and at S. Haven it’s 73.6 – so the Lake Michigan shoreline is the place to stay cool. Check out the satellite loop (daytime). Here’s the updated severe weather outlook areas from the Storm Prediction Center. Clean Air Action Day Today (Sat.).
We’re moving into the warmest week since 2013. Here’s the forecast high temps. off the GFS model overnight run for G.R. starting with today (Fri.): 86, 93, 87, 88, 88, 84, 86, 87. The overnight run of the NAM has 85, 89, 89 for the next 3 days. Both models give G.R. a low of 75 Sat. night, so the air conditioners will be running. The chance of rain is not zero, but it’s low for this afternoon and Saturday. Radar is in the thread below. Neat pic. here from Tom DeVette.
We have a good chance (90%) of at least one shower or t-storm tonight. Severe weather is not impossible, but not likely. Most showers should move east of our area by 8 am and we’ll become partly sunny, warm and humid with highs in the mid-upper 80s (cooler at Lake Michigan). Saturday will be the hottest day with highs inland in the low 90s. Most of us will see a dry Saturday, with a better bet for a shower or storm on Sunday. At 2 am – pretty good storm in Berrien Co. and lightning now west of Whitehall.