Bill’s Blog

Friday PM Scattered Showers and Storms

May 29th, 2015 at 12:08 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Central Great Lakes sector loop

8 pm – Shower with some heavy rain coming into S. Haven (and by around 9:30 -10 pm into G.R. if it holds together.  Shower has exited Lansing.  Showers with brief heavy rain in NW Oceana Co.   Afternoon run of the GFS MOS gives G.R. a 100% chance of rain tomorrow.   First Tornado Watch is Joplin MO south to Texarkana.  There is a severe t-storm watch for northeast NM, far western OK and NW TX.  Here’s today’s U.S. storm reports.  Severe weather is not likely in Michigan.

 

The radar images here should update automatically.  So come back for radar and the links.  We continue to be in the Marginal Risk Area for severe weather this afternoon/tonight.  The most likely area to get severe weather today is once again from far E. New Mexico thru Texas into Oklahoma.  Mid 80s inland this PM (already 79 at noon in G.R.)…it’s cooler at the beach (66 at the Muskegon beach at noon and the S. Haven beach reports an air temp. of 67 – the water temperature has made it to 60 for the first time this year at Muskegon and Hoffmaster St. Parks).  Here’s current conditions in Michigan.   The U.S. tornado count for May is 412 through yesterday (some of these are duplicates)…a very active month.  Fortunately, most of the tornadoes have been small, and confined to sparsely populated areas of the Southern Plains.  No tornadoes have been reported in Michigan this year so far.

Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s


Hurricane Andreas

May 29th, 2015 at 12:00 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Hurricane Andreas is churning well west of Mexico and no threat to land. This is the first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific, which should have an above average number of hurricanes this summer/fall, as opposed to the below average number in the Atlantic Ocean. Hopefully, a few of these storms can pump a little moisture up into the Southwest U.S. and far Northwest Mexico, where there is a drought. Here’s the track map for Andreas and the discussion on the storm from the Hurricane Center.


Chance of a T-Storm Greatest Friday PM/Night

May 29th, 2015 at 3:22 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook These are the severe weather outlook areas for today (Fri) and tomorrow.   There is a chance of a shower or storm this PM/night ahead of a cold front that will turn us significantly cooler for the weekend.  The Storm Prediction Center says about the Great Lakes Area:  “AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 1500 J/KG WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MULTICELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES…AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL”    I think the wind holds up and that minimizes that chance of even low spots getting any frost Sun. or Mon. morning.

Read the full discussions from the National Weather Service Forecast Offices (up-to-date ) at these links for SW Michigan, SE Michigan, Northern Indiana, Chicago and Indianapolis.   The European model gives G.R. 0.56″ of rain Friday PM/Saturday and then dry until next Thursday afternoon.   Here’s today’s U.S. storm reports.    Tornado that struck Canadian, TX, on Wednesday rated high-end EF-2 — the strongest tornado to hit region in 5 years.

Check out the links below:
Here’s regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven, Here’s the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion.

Also:  3 out of 4 tornado warnings are “false alarms”.  Given where we are today, that’s not as bad a number as you might think.  You’d rather a false alarm than having a tornado come through unalarmed.   This is actually one of the tougher areas to forecast tornadoes.  The twisters we get are often small, short-lived or rain-wrapped.  Storm-spotters in the Plains can follow well-defined supercells over flat, treeless terrain.  Here in Michigan, we can get small tornadoes out of cells with little lightning or thunder, or with a good deal of low cloudiness/scud or rain in the way.  I remember 5/21/01 when we had something like 20 small tornadoes on a day with a low overcast and showers everywhere on radar.  You didn’t know which shower was going to put down a little spin-up.


Great Lakes Water Levels, Ice and News

May 29th, 2015 at 12:12 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

Traverse City - Mission Peninsula by Michelle 5 24 15 with Alex and Maya  This pic. was taken last Sunday PM by Michelle Olin.  I’m on the Mission Peninsula just north of Traverse City with the famous child author Alex and dancer extraordinare, Maya.  You can see the West Bay in the background.  The pic. on the left is Traverse Bay (from Michelle Olin).

Lake Superior, has a 0.0% ice cover, but you can still see a little bit of blue in Agawa Bay, indicating a 0.5% ice cover in the bay…so there are still a few ice cubes floating around there on May 29!  If you look at this MODIS satellite picture from Thursday afternoon (from NOAA Coastwatch), you can still see a very small bit of ice next to the shore there in Agawa Bay.  This satellite pic. from later in the afternoon shows a lot of fog over Lake Superior.   The MODIS pic. of Lake Michigan shows an area of fog between N. Manitou Is. and the east edge of Green Bay.  You can see where the easterly lake breeze has pushed into E. Wisconsin and there are no cumulus clouds along the shore.  Here in Michigan the west-southwest lake breeze front combined with the increase in elevation touched off a few scattered showers in the mid-late afternoon from N. Montcalm Co. up toward Cadillac.  There’s also some streaks of cirrus passing through.  The Lake Huron pic. shows the cumulus clouds over the warmer land and clear skies over the cooler water.   Here’s a cool satellite pic. showing cloud swirls (vortecies) over the Canary Islands.   Check out this pic. showing snow left in the mountains of British Columbia and check out all the snow that’s left after a cool spring in Iceland.

Lake Michigan/Huron is up 2″ in the last month, up 11″ in the past year and the lake is 6″ above the century average for May. Lake Superior is up 4″ in the last month, up 2″ in the last year and Superior is 9″ above the May average. Lake Erie is up 1″ in the last month, down 4″ in the last year and is at the same level as May 2014. Lake Ontario is up 3″ in the last month, down 14″ in the last year and is now 7″ below the century May average. Lake St. Clair is at the same level as it was one month ago and one year ago and is now 4″ above average.  Water flow down the St. Mary’s river from Lake Superior into Lake Huron, the flow down the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers from Lake Huron to Lake Erie and the flow down the Niagara River from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario are all expected to be above average into June.  The flow out of Lake Ontario into the St. Lawrence River is expected to be a little below average.

Also:  Great Lakes fish farmingGreat Lakes fish surveys underwayfamous floating restaurant to be scrappedrude protestors, all 3 of them20-foot long killer fish used to live in what is now N. OhioNew icebreaker coming to the Great LakesI saw one in Benzie Co. a few years ago3.6 million have already seen this…not Great Lakes, but a pretty twilight in Jamaica.   How aircraft deal with scattered thunderstorms in Atlanta.  That’s why some pilots make good NASCAR drivers.   Dallas/Fort Worth Airport breaks record for wettest May with 13.67” of rain.

 


Huge Eruption of Volcano in Japan

May 28th, 2015 at 9:51 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Japan Volcano Japan volcano map A massive explosion of the Japanese Shindake volcano occurred around 10 am local time (9 pm EDT) Thursday evening.  Look at THIS.   About 140 people live on tiny Kuchinoerabu Island at the southern end of Japan, which is a National Park and heavily forested.  There were no reports of injuries on the island.  The Japan Meteorological Agency reported that pyroclastic flows from the volcano had reached the shore to the northwest.   The volcano erupted last August after remaining dormant since 1980.   Another picture here.   Here’s a visible (daytime)  satellite picture of Japan (we’ll see if you can see the ash cloud in a few hours).    It looks like a 4.0 magnitude earthquake occurred east of the volcano in the Izu Islands at roughly the same time.  Here’s more on the Izu Islands.   Notice to airman (NOTAM) warning of ash cloud as high as 37,000 feet.  According to skyvector – the ash cloud reached 36,000 feet.    (Pic. on the blog from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the map on the right from Wikipedia).

Also:  Lightning hits a church across the street!


Heavy Rain OK and TX

May 27th, 2015 at 10:45 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Oklahoma rain for May 2015  Norman OK May Tornado Warnings  Flood - Road washed out Norman OK PD  Click on the graphics to enlarge.  The first is Oklahoma rainfall for May…a new monthly state record.  In the middle, we have the number of tornado warnings this issued this May by the Norman OK National Weather Service compared to the previous 7 Mays – you can see there is quite a bit of variation.  On the right, a classic road washout.  Imagine the road has just washed out, it’s nighttime and there are no barricades yet.  Water could be flowing across the highway and it may not look too deep.  Of course, with the washout, it’s very deep and if you try and cross you’re vehicle will be headed downstream.

Roswell NM reached 90 for the first time on Weds. – the average first 90 is April 20 and the latest May 31.  Record daily rainfall 3 days in a row at Marquette (0.87″ Weds., 0.80″ Tues., 1.09″ Mon.).  Marquette has had 4.32″ of rain this month.  Lack of electricity, blackouts from excessive demand from air conditioners leading to so many India heat fatalities.  Reasonably-priced and reliable electricity is very important.  “It’s worse than previous years; we hardly get any electricity and the air conditioners become useless.”  81 mph gust near Turkey, Texas.  Great shot of a big thunderstorm cumulonimbus in ColoradoAn almost flat rainbowBlanco River Flood video – scary!  1.45″ rain in one hour at Memphis TX.  Video of Canadian TX tornadoMore videoTornado in Sublette KS.


Severe Weather Threat Ends in MI

May 27th, 2015 at 2:35 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

WW0228 RADAR Thumbnail Image The Storm Prediction Center issued a Severe T-Storm Watch for SE Michigan, NE Indiana and NW Ohio. The watch continues in effect for portions of N Ohio until 7 pm. Watch status update here.  So far, pea-sized hail and gusty winds in Marshall MI.  There have been a few wind and hail reports from SE Michigan (large hail at Pinckney near Ann Arbor), NE Indiana (semi blown off I-69) and NW Ohio.   Here’s U.S. storm reports.

Houston confirms 2 more storm-related deaths; combined Texas, Oklahoma death toll now 19 – plus 13 in Mexico.  Official hurricane forecast from NOAA – below average number of hurricanes in the Atlantic/Caribbean.   Better risk in the western Gulf of Mexico…less risk for storms coming across the Atlantic from W. Africa.    Wettest month ever in the state of OklahomaWettest month ever in Texas.    Tornado on the ground in Canadian, Texas!  Rainfall from May 1-26:  0.31″ Boston, 0.32″ New York City, 0.09″ Allentown PA.  Showers and storms this PM/Tonight are bringing welcome rain.


Possible Severe Weather

May 27th, 2015 at 12:38 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

meso Blog update coming…I’ve been in the shower and then comuting to work…warning for Jackson and SE Calhoun Counties until 2:45 pm.   Severe weather possible only east of a line from Sturgis to Lansing.  For most of us…no thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a meso discussion for the area southeast of a line from New Buffalo to Saginaw.     PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT.   SPC says:  “STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE SERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SWD INTO THE INDIANA/NWRN OH VICINITY. DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE LOCALLY WITH STRONGER CELLS…WHICH WARRANTS WW CONSIDERATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION…RECENT WV LOOP REVEALS A VORT MAX CROSSING LK MI INTO W CENTRAL LOWER MI ATTM…VEERED/UNIDIRECTIONAL — BUT INCREASING — FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS OBSERVED JUST S OF THE NEWD TRACK OF THIS FEATURE…RESULTING IN A WIND PROFILE FEATURING AMPLE SPEED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/BOWING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HEATING OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES…WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN TCU/A FEW CB WITHIN THE PAST HALF HOUR. WITH STORMS LIKELY TO INCREASE/ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS…RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.”      The most likely area to see isolated wind damage south be east of I-69 in Michigan and east of I-65 in Indiana.   Radar and links in the thread below.

Temperatures at noon:  76 Battle Creek and Marshall, 70 G.R., 58 S. Haven Beach, 51 Muskegon Beach, 49 Harbor Springs.

Also:  Tropical Storm Andreas to form off the west coast of Mexicobeautiful rainbow yesterday at Wrigley FieldArctic ice comparison now to 20 years agoAntarctic ice has been growing since the mid 1980s


Wednesday

May 27th, 2015 at 2:35 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Central Great Lakes sector loop

There’s still a chance of a shower today, so I’ll leave radar at the top of the blog.

Also – Lake Superior ice is down to 0.0% (technically less than 0.05%), but the map shows there are still some “cubes” floating in Agawa Bay (past Memorial Day).

Here’s Tuesday’s severe weather reports – 240 reports in 15 states.  366 tornadoes reported in the U.S. so far in May – Also:  Lightning over downtown Dallasit stays extremely hot in India/Pakistan/Iran/Iraq…2.54″ of rain in 5 hours at Tampa FL…69 mph gust at Arlington TX…here’s video of the tornado near Dayton OH – 2 injured…pretty sunset, NYC…tree falls on car in Lansing...double rainbow near Lansing…May average rainfall for the state of OK is now 12.5″!!  That’s 5″ more than previous wettest May ever!!  All 77 Oklahoma counties are now under a state of emergency after storm and flood damage…flooded I-45 expressway in Houston…radar storm total rainfall up to 11″ in Houstonwaterspout video off Gulf Shores AL

Links: Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.


Severe T-Storm Watch is Over for Most of Michigan

May 26th, 2015 at 2:35 pm by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

WW0220 Initial Radar image WW0221 RADAR Thumbnail ImageFunnel Montcalm Co. 5 26 15   The Severe T-Storm Watch has been cancelled for everyone except far NE Lower Michigan (north of Saginaw Bay)

Severe reports:  Possible funnel cloud in Montcalm CoAnother picAnother pic.   Here’s video clearly showing a rotating wall cloudPossible wall cloud in Isabella Co.  Gust to 60 mph at Quincy in Branch Co.  Reports of trees down at Elm and Quarterline in Newaygo.  Small hail reported near Battle Creek.  (Unhealthy-looking) tree down on car in Lansing.    Rainfall from 2 pm – 8 pm:  0.85″ Kalamazoo, 0.68″ Muskegon, 0.65″ Holland – Boatwerks, 0.61″ Holland Airport, 0.61″ Rockford, 0.53″ Hudsonville, 0.44″ Hudsonville, 0.38″ Eberhard Center – downtown G.R., 0.38″ here at WOOD, 0.34″ Lansing, 0.34″ Big Rapids, 0.24″ Grand Rapids.

There are two Severe T-Storm Watches. We have one that covers most all of Lower Michigan (not Berrien or Cass Counties and another Severe T-Storm Watch until for Branch, St. Joseph and Hillsdale Counties in Michigan, for much of Eastern Indiana and for Western Ohio. The main threat is isolated damaging wind.   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1-INCH (not a high risk of hail). EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO as high as 70 mph. Individual storm movement southwest to northeast at 35 mph with the line(s) progressing from west to east across the area.  Chance of rain – very high.  Chance of severe (60 mph winds or 1″ hail) in any one spot – low.  We’ve heated up near 80 deg. (pretty good instability).  Dewpoints up into the low-mid 60s – so we have available moisture.  Surface map shows marginal convergence.   Not a lot of lightning so far, many areas just getting rain showers.   Over 70 severe reports in the U.S. today.

Looks like a cool weekend…could be breezy, chilly and wet Sat. AM – No frost, wind should hold up Sun./Mon. mornings…but low 40s possible.

Links:  Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map. Check out Regional radar. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, SPC meso-discussions and current watches and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from Milwaukee NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports.