Bill’s Blog

Winter Storm Warning – for HAWAII !!

March 4th, 2015 at 1:56 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Hawaii Snow ERSL  Mauna Kea in background   A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the high elevations (generally above 12,000 feet) of the Big Island of Hawaii for 12-18″ of new snow!  The warning is in effect until 6 am Thursday.  Winds of 20-30 mph will cause drifting snow and keep wind chill factors in the low-mid teens.  A Flood Watch has been posted for the Big Island and for Maui.  Thunderstorms are possible along with general showers.  Hilo has already had 1.93″ of rainfall in the first three days of March and over 10″ since Jan. 1.  Kahului has picked up 2.71″ of rain in the first three days of March and Oahu Forest 1.19″.  Waves are forecast up to 13 feet by Friday.  A persistent trough north of the islands is expected to produce periods of rain through next week.  (Picture from ERSL is from Mauna Loa looking north to Mauna Kea after a previous snowfall.   Note the high sun angle.

Also, heavy snow for the mountains of Italy and SE Europe.   Great Lakes ice cover is down to 77.8% due to winds breaking up the ice (it was up to nearly 89% earlier this week).  Boston picked up 1.6″ of snow as of midnight, taking the seasonal snow total up to 105.7″.


Breezy and Colder Weds.

March 3rd, 2015 at 3:07 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  9:15 pm -  We could see a few flurries later tonight.  I think the mist has ended.  We’ve already reached our highs – 33 in G.R., first time to 33 since 2/11.  Three more days well below average coming up.  That will make 23 days in a row cooler than average.

Temp. is now 31 in G.R., Muskegon and Ludington, 28 in Big Rapids, still 34 in S. Haven, Battle Creek, Kalamazoo and Coldwater.   Mid-upper 20s in E. Wisconsin, the colder air is coming.

Grand Rapids officially had 2.9″ of snow by 5 pm – for a season total of 77.9″.  Muskegon is up to 92.1″.   Main roads are mostly still wet/damp, with icy spots on side roads.  Even main roads may have icy spots tonight as temperatures fall to near 20 by daybreak.   Here’s the GRR NWS discussion.

The warm-up is on the way for next week.  We’ll have two more days of cold, Arctic air and temperatures 20 degrees colder than average.  We’ll be back to the mid 30s this weekend and into the 40s by the middle of next week.   Use the links below, lots of fun things to check out.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.


Winter Weather Advisory

March 2nd, 2015 at 3:50 pm by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

advisoryA Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect tomorrow for the entire area (the entire state of Michigan along with adjacent areas of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin will under an Advisory).  The Advisory will be in effect for our area from 7 am to 8 pm.  Icy roads could continue to be a problem after 8 pm as temperatures fall and there is still a chance of a little light snow or freezing drizzle through the evening.

High of 29, low of 15 today in G.R.  That makes 19 days in a row that the average temperature has been 8 or more degrees colder than average.


Tuesday Mix

March 2nd, 2015 at 3:53 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

hpc   This is NOAA’s (WPC) 24-hour snowfall probability map for Tues.  Today (Mon.) should be a nice day.  Any chance you have to travel and run errands today and not have to do it tomorrow would be encouraged.  I think we’re dry this evening.  Snow will start after midnight.  Tues. that will go over to sleet/freezing rain and then rain as temperatures get to freezing (it may stay snow north of line from around Mt. Pleasant to Whitehall…then back to snow before it ends Tues. night as more cold air comes in and freezing things up (which make both Tues. and Tues. night hazardous for travel).  Remember the ground is cold, so ice may form on roads even a degree or two above freezing and that’s especially true for dirt/gravel roads.  Wednesday and Thursday will be unseasonably chilly with mid-January cold.  Temperatures moderate for next weekend, but don’t look for any big push of warmer, spring weather.  The overall pattern still looks cooler than average to me into mid-March.  The averages are going up at a steady rate now (the average high for March 5 is 40 and we get to the low 50s by the end of the month).  We’ve still got a lot of snow and ice around here.  Here’s GFS model snowfall and the GRR NWS forecast discussion.


February 2015

March 1st, 2015 at 4:43 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

great lakes ice cover   Feb. 2015 was the coldest February ever in G.R. with an average temperature of 13.3.  That’s a full degree colder than the previous coldest February, which was 14.3 in 1978, the year after the Blizzard of Jan. 26, 1978.  The average temperature for the month was 13.5 below average for G.R., 13.5 colder than average for Kalamazoo and a whopping 14.5 colder than average for Lansing.  This is only the 2nd time since 1978 that we did not reach 40 in G.R. in February.  In fact, we’ve only reached 40 once since 12/27!  We only got above 30 three times in February in G.R.  We dipped below zero 8 times in G.R. in February and 11 times in Lansing.  The average high/low for G.R. was 22.0/4.7.  We only had 3 days that got about 30 in G.R.  As can be the case in cold, winter months, we had both below average precipitation (1.17″ – 0.62″ below average) and above average snowfall (19.6″, which was 4.8″ above average).  Much of that snow came on Super Bowl Sunday (8.8″).  Snow cover varied from 4″ (early morning on the 1st) to 10″ in G.R., and we had at least a trace of snow on 22 of 28 days.  The fastest wind gust in G.R. was 45 mph on the 14th.  February is on average the month with the least precipitation.  We had 34% of possible sunshine, close to averge and an average humidity of 69%.  No thunderstorms with the cold air and only one day with fog.    NOAA: 2185 cold records broken or tied in past week1913 Low Min Records Broken & 272 tied in 7 days.

The graphic shows that Great Lakes ice cover is up to 88.5%, with the only significant open water on Lakes Michigan and Ontario.  Wind could break up some ice on Tues./Weds., but we have a decent shot at topping 90% in the next 10 days.    CONUS ended February -1.85°C below 30-yr average. Temps crashed after 16th.    YTD -0.86°C.    Almost every major city in Quebec experienced their coldest February since we have data (70 yrs of data).   Coldest Feb. (-14.7C) in Fredericton, NB, Canada since records started in 1913.  Only month colder was Jan., 1920.  Coldest Feb. ever in Labrador.

Also, coldest February ever in Alpena (6.6), Gaylord (3.2), Houghton Lake (5.8), Flint (2nd coldest month), Saginaw (3rd coldest month), Marquette (2.4 deg. – also coldest month ever!), Houghton MI, Rochester NY (and 4th snowiest Feb.). Cleveland (14.3 – also 2nd coldest month ever), Buffalo NY (10.9 – also coldest month ever in Buffalo) Syracuse NY (and coldest month ever), Chicago 14.6 (tied 1875), Redding PA, State College PA (17.1), Erie PA, Mansfield and Youngstown OH,  Portland ME (14.0 also coldest month ever!) Bangor ME (6.1 – broke old monthly record by 5.2!), Harrisburg PA (20.9).  2nd coldest Feb. in Detroit,  Baltimore MD (4th coldest month), Pittsburgh (4th coldest month ever), Rockford IL, Concord NH (12.2), Toledo OH and Albany NY (12.7).    3rd coldest February Traverse City (9.5), S. Ste. Marie (2.9), New York City (23.9) and Allentown PA (19.0).  Little Rock AR had snow on the ground for 10 days in Feb.  It was the snowiest Feb. ever in Boston (64.8″ – broke old record by 23.2″!), Providence RI (31.8″) and Denver CO (22.4″). That’s the most since 1936.  Ice-clogged Hoboken NJ ferry terminalSolid ice in the Potomoc River in D.C.   More than 1,400 flights cancelled at DC, Philadelphia and New York City-area airports due to snow.  Boston up to 102.3″ snow for the season…second place, they’ll probably reach #1.   Toronto – coldest Feb. since 1936 – they haven’t been above freezing for 36 days.   Heavy snow in Arizona.   Chesapeake Bay ice reaching historic maximum.   Some of the oldest weather records in the area are taken in Amherst, MA. Since 1836, this February was the coldest! Nearly 180 years.

Anniversary of the EF-4 tornado in Miller’s Ferry AL.  Heavy rain coming to the Ohio ValleyNorthern Lights last night in Alberta.   400 flights cancelled at DFW – freezing drizzle there.   Ice storm Branson MO.   Beautiful pic. of sun and snow from Alabama.  Shreveport, LA, saw more snow (4.1″) than Fairbanks, Alaska (4.0″) in February.   Volcano ash causes Alaska Airlines flight cancellations on Saturday.  Thundershower in San FranciscoTwo waterspouts SW of Los Angeles.  0.68″ rain at San Diego.


Sunday

March 1st, 2015 at 4:33 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Some scattered flurries possible, not much.  The Tuesday system will bring a mix of  precipitation with travel concerns Tuesday and Tuesday nightwhen temperatures again get well below freezing.  Keep in mind the ground is cold and even with temperatures a few degrees above freezing on Tues. we can still get icy roads, esp. gravel roads.  The last Arctic air mass arrives for Weds. – Fri. AM, but temperatures moderate by next weekend.   Here’s the GRR NWS discussion (from WDM and Laurens).

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.


Saturday Sunshine

February 28th, 2015 at 10:32 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

muskegon glerl   apn glerl  chicago glerl  The sun should hold until mid-late afternoon, when high clouds come in from the southwest.  These are GLERL cam pictures this morning (from NOAA Coastwatch) from Muskegon, Alpena and Chicago.  Lots of ice out there as we close out Feb.

Low temps. this morning:  -4 Grand Rapids (7th time in the last 14 days we’ve been below zero), -5 Fennville, -6 Big Rapids, Hartford and Hastings, -8 Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, -9 Benton Harbor, 10 Albion, -11 Charlotte and Three Rivers, -12 Mendon, -14 Cadillac, -16 Marshall, -18 Lawrence.  The low was -9 at Manistee, where the wind went calm and +16 at Ludington, where the wind held off Lake Michigan – try and forecast that.  Muskegon was +4, Hudsonville +3.  Climate stats from GRR NWS.

Also:  A very mid-winter weather map this morning.  Low temps:  11 Amarillo, -1 Colorado Springs, -15 Rochester MN, -18 Mason City IA, 15 St. Louis, 7 Indianapolis, -9 Cleveland, 12 Boston.   8″ new snow in Albuquerque NH – snow and ice at Grand Canyon AZ, 2″ sleet in Stillwater OK.   Sunrise this morning in Friesland, NetherlandsLake Blue Ridge GA looks like Michigan this AM.  Dallas, Texas has had more snow this month than Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska combined!  -10 in Chicago this morning broke the old record low by 10 deg.   Great Lakes ice cover now 6% more than last year on this date.   Here’s some cool snow sculptures.


Great Lakes up to 86.8% Ice Cover

February 28th, 2015 at 1:54 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Great Lakes Ice Cover   Lake Michigan Winter Ice S. Haven Jeffrey Foltice 2 27 15  Happy Weekend!  Click on the images to enlarge.  Sunset picture from Jeffrey Foltice at S. Haven Friday evening.  The Great Lakes are now up to 86.8% ice cover.  There’s still a good deal of open water on Lakes Michigan and Ontario.  As of early Sat. morning, the ice cover on the  individual lakes is as follows:  Lake Michigan 67.3%, Lake Superior 94.9%, Lake Huron 95.3%, Lake Erie 96%, Lake Ontario 57.1%.   You couldn’t just walk across the frozen lakes.  There are large cracks with open water and areas where the surface is like crushed ice in a glass of water.

Four of the last five days, we’ve had over 60% sunshine.  The last 16 days have been 18.2 deg. cooler than average in G.R.  Today is the 17th day in a row that’s cooler than average.  During these 17 days, the warmest temperature has been 27.  We’ve only had 3 days out of 28 that have been warmer than average this month.   One more cold week, then cold air retreats!  When I first looked at the 2 pics. here…my first thought was flooding is sure a possibility if we get decent rain this month with a quick warm-up.

Models backing off on the Sunday snow…mostly around or slightly less than an inch over most of the area.  Euro. has 0.18″ at Sturgis, would be 2 to 2 1/2″, but only an inch for Kalamazoo County.  It has 0.30″ precip. for Tuesday – a mix, high mid 30s.  The GFS (car.) has 0.69″ for G.R.  with 1.2″ snow in that.

Also:  Check out the Texas Rangers Stadium Friday.   Waterloo, IA, broke its 118-y/o Feb. 27 low temp. record with -24 F; old record: -14, 1897.  Coldest February ever in Cleveland, Portland ME and on Mt. Washington NH.  Up to a foot of snow fell in Alabama.  Passengers were stuck on American Airlines plane for 7+ hrs at DFW waiting for plane to be deiced.  Beautiful sunset at Fort Walton Beach, FL.  Season snowfall:  117″ Bangor ME, 109″ Worcester MA, 103″ Buffalo, 102″ Boston, 100″ Erie PA.  Snow in N. GASnow covers the Texas Rangers baseball field in Arlington TX.  The Texas Cowtown Marathon has been cancelled.  So has the Calf-Marathon.  In Collin Co. Texas, police were working to clear 15 slide-offs on I-75 (13 car and 2 semis).  Hailstorm in CaliforniaGreat sunset pic. from Dolphin Is AL.  This month will be NYC’s coldest February in 81 yrs, and one of the Top 10 coldest months ever!   Neat satellite picture of the Northeast.   American Meteorology Society says House Democrat investigation into climate skeptics sends “chilling message”: http://wapo.st/17E7kt8Cool zoomed in pic. of the Niagara River Friday.  I’ve found Reed Timmer.   Huh?   “Historically, drought is the number-one climate-related cause of death. Worldwide it has gone down by 99.98% in the last eighty years.”   February will easily be the coldest February on record at CLE. Current avg monthly temperature is 14.9, next coldest 16.7 set in 1978.

 


Snow Cover/Season Snowfall

February 27th, 2015 at 12:02 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Swiss Valley Ski    This is going to be an awesome weekend for winter sports…get out the skis, skates, sleds, snowboards.  We’ll have some sun on Sat., some snow on Sunday.   Here’s some snow depths:  47″ Grand Marias, 42″ Munising, 34″ Ishpeming, 32″ Marquette Airport, 28″ Newberry, 23″ Hart, 19″ Traverse City, 17″ Muskegon, 16″ Hopkins, 15″ Fremont, 14″ Paw Paw and Houghton Lake, 13″ Kalamazoo, Grandville, Hopkins, 12″ Reed City, 11″ Lake City, 10″ East G.R., 9″ Hastings, Saranac, 7″ Grand Rapids and Lansing.

Season snowfall:  Lansing 33.7″, Kalamazoo 70.3″, Grand Rapids 74.8″, Muskegon 87.9″.  Leave a comment if you keep track of season snowfall.

Also:  +40 vehicle accident in the snow near Melissa, TX.   This February will easily be the coldest February on record at CLE. Current avg monthly temperature is 14.9, next coldest 16.7 set in 1978.  Snowing in Dallas.   Here comes the next Arctic ExpressTime lapse of moving ice in Chicago this morning.  Since 1979 (when satellite records began), Friday morning Lower 48 avg. temp of 16°F is coldest for last week of February (21st –>).   Leap day 2/29/96 previous coldest at 17.5°F.  79% of the Lower 48 states were at or below 32 deg. this morning, 25% at or below zero and 10% at or below -10.  Coast Guard cutter spots coyote on the ice near Quincy MA.   Magnitude 7.0 earthquake reported 82m north of Nebe, Indonesia, no tsunami.


How Cold Did You Get?

February 27th, 2015 at 4:12 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

thermometer wivb  Feb 2015 coldest Feb.Graphic from G.R. NWS – this will be the coldest Feb. ever and the 4th coldest month ever in G.R.   I left the station around 3:10 am and it was 1 above on my car thermometer.  It was clear and calm.  It stayed at +1 as I drove thru downtown and out on US 131.  It was still +1 when I crossed the Ann St. Bridge.  Once I got past the bridge, there’s a straight-away that’s low down by the river, and the thermometer dropped to -7.  I then exited at Alpine and the thermometer rose back to 0 at the entrance to the mall.  It was back to -2 when I got home.  That’s pretty typical of calm, clear nights, where the cold air settles into low spots.    You can check the Michigan hourly temperatures here.   Another cold shot for Weds./Thurs. of next weekCFSv2 still shows general cold pattern thru March.    Temperatures were below zero this morning in at least 20 states!

Low temps. this morning:  -33 Rudyard (coldest in the U.S.), -32 Leota, -29 Baldwin, -28 Pellston, -25 Cadillac & Lake City, -24 Gaylord, -22 Reed City, -21 Houghton Lake, -20 Marshall, -19, Big Rapids, Alpena, -18 Traverse City, -17 Eaton Rapids & Albion, -16 Charlotte, Belding & Ceresco, -15 Jackson, Hastings, -14 Alma, Mt. Pleasant, Coldwater, W. Olive and Twin Lake, -13 Hudsonville, Mendon and Lawrence, -12 Fremont, -11 Grand Rapids (missed record low by 1 deg.), Hart and Allendale, -10 Hopkins, Bloomingdale & Clarksville, -9 Ionia, Grandville, Sturgis and Manistee, -8 Grand Haven and Hartford, -7 Benton Harbor, Watervliet, Lawton and East G.R., -6 Kent City, +1 Fennville.    Beach temps. this AM:  -3.5 Muskegon, +2.8 Milwaukee, +6.0 Chicago.

Also:  New monthly February Snowfall Record for Denver as total is now up to 22.2″; old record: 22.1″, set in 1912.  Snow in IrelandLight Pillars in NW Ohio.   First llamas..now thisPostcard pretty.   Snowiest calendar day ever in Huntsville AL, 8.1″ on 2/25.   Look at the snow in Blount Springs ALCullman AL looks like Marquette.  Weiss Lake AL.   American Meteorological Society responds to Government global warming witchhunt.