Bill’s Blog

Snow Showers Continue Thurs. Night

November 20th, 2014 at 3:51 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Thurs. evening – I’m back from doing the weather downtown at the lightning of the Grand Rapids Christmas/Holiday Tree.  It was the world’s most wonderful tree-lightning ever!  The tree was perfect, covered in snow like a Currier & Ives winter scene.   The fluffy lake-effect snowflakes falling down and the clean, crisp Canadian air lifted our spirits.  We sang carols and counted down to the moment when 40,000 colored lights burst forth in glistening glory.  There was free coffee for everyone and many folks (I’d estimate 400+ were there) headed inside the Art Museum.  Meijer is sponsoring free admission to the Museum on Tuesdays (day) and Thursday evenings.  There are hundreds of thousands of pretty, colored LED lights downtown and it’s a great place to spend a winter evening.

Some updated climate data:  The last 8 days have averaged 15° colder than average.  The last day with a temperature warmer than 35° was Veterans Day.  We are up to 26.4″ of snow for the month in G.R., now 3rd highest snowfall total for any November (and probably 2nd place by midnight). We have had only 7% of possible sunshine over the past two weeks.   Today is the 9th day in a row with measurable snowfall (hard to do when your average high temperature is still in the mid-upper 40s).  We have now had over 103″ of snow in calendar year 2014 with the rest of November and all of December to add to that.  This could be the snowiest calendar year ever in Grand Rapids. The snowiest winter ever in G.R. was the winter of 1951-52 with 132″ at the airport and 144″ downtown.   1951 was the only other year besides 2014 when we did not reach 90° in the summer.  Here’s the month snow totals for the G.R. Airport for the winter of  ’51-’52 beginning with Nov:  26.9″, 51.3″, 21.2″, 12.6″, 9.5″, 10.5″.    Here’s the GRR NWS discussion.    Thundersnow!   BTW – HAPPY BIRTHDAY to TERRI DEBOER today!

Gusty winds have caused some drifting, especially in outlying areas.  There were a few schools closed this Thursday, but most everyone should be back tomorrow (Friday).  Schools do not want to use up all their snow days before Thanksgiving.   We still have a chance of a period of light freezing rain or sleet early Saturday before temps. climb above freezing for the afternoon.  It looks breezy over the weekend and downright windy on Monday and Tuesday.  Both the GFS and NAM models forecast a little freezing rain Sat. AM.  The GFS gives G.R. quite a few hours of precipitation from Sat. AM thru Tues. PM with 0.73″ of rain for Sunday PM/evening.  The European is similar with the heaviest rain Sunday PM and a total from Sat. am to Tues. night of 1.11″.   Check out the links below:

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast (totals increased on the Sat. overnight model run). Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indian radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.

I’ve been saying that we’ll have some schools closed on Tues. The NAM (car) model has a temp. of 22.5 Tues. AM (and it stays in the low 20s all day), a west wind off the lake at 24 mph, snow plus blowing and drifting snow. The NAM forecasts 2.3″ for G.R. (airport) tonight/tomorrow..another inch Monday and an additional 8″ from Monday night into Tuesday night. The GFS3 has less with a total of 5″ thru Weds. for the airport. In any case, they’ll be enough snow to drift around in the brisk winds from late Mon. thru Weds. t’hat model also has a temp. of +1° for G.R. next Sat. morning. The European model has 0.43″ total precipitation thru Thurs. for G.R. That’d be 7-8″ of total snowfall, with enough wind for some 1-2 foot drifts.

 


Thursday Night Advisory

November 19th, 2014 at 11:41 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory  The Winter Weather Advisory continues until 7 am for Muskegon, SW Kent, Allegan, Barry, Van Buren and Kalamazoo Counties.   The mid-Lake Michigan buoy west of Holland shows a water temperature of 42.8° and the north Lake Michigan buoy shows a water temp. of 42.3°.  The last check of the mid-Lake Superior buoy a couple of days ago had a water temp. of 37.0°.  They have pulled the buoys out of Lake Superior for the winter and will do the same to the Lake Michigan buoys very soon.  I really appreciate having the buoys out there.  Thanks to those who take care of our Great Lakes buoys.

Grand Rapids has officially had 28.4″ of snow, moving us up to 1st place for snowiest Novembers.   We’ll see the winds and snow showers diminish during the early morning.  Most of Friday will be dry.  We’ll see a light mix of precipitation develop late Friday night and continue into Saturday am.  That could include a period of light freezing rain.  Then just rain showers as the temp. climbs above freezing Saturday afternoon.  A heavier slug of rain is likely Sunday PM/Night and we could easily see 1/2 to 1″ of rain…on top of our snow.  That could cause some concern about weight on roofs.  Monday the cold air comes back with a strong west wind, changing morning rain showers to snow showers by evening.  Look for snow showers and temperatures about 10 degrees colder than average in the low 30s for Tues. and Weds.  Thanksgiving Day looks cold…below 30° and snow showers.  It’ll stay cool for the big shopping day on Friday.

Satellite view of the Great Lakes lake-effect snow bands.

Snow depths Thurs. AM:  35″ Bergland Dam, 32″ Hoist Basin (U.P.), 28″ Paulding, 27″ Big Bay, 24″ Ironwood, 22″ Watersmeet, 21″ S. Ste. Marie, Grand Marais, 20″ Gaylord, Calumet,  19″ Marquette, Munising, 18″ Walker,  17″ Mancelona, 16″ Boyne City, 15″ Allendale, Newberry, 14″ St. Ignace, 13″ Hopkins, 11″ Big Rapids, Dorr, Belmont, Comstock Park, 10″ Hopkins, 9″ East Grand Rapids and Traverse City, 8″ Muskegon, Scottville, Baldwin, Fremont, Grandville, Lake City, 7″ Grand Rapids, 6″ Hastings and Hart, 5″ Holland, Lansing, 4″ Houghton Lake, 3″ Grand Ledge, St. Johns, Montague beach., 1″ Alma.

Latest snow totals from the Buffalo NY NWS:    65″, four miles south of Cheektowaga, NY., 63″ Lancaster, NY.  The bumps in this picture are buried cars!  Four deaths there from heart attacks while shoveling snow.  Heavy snow squalls continue.  From Dr. Maue: “Rough estimate of shoveling snow near Buffalo: driveway 50 ft x 20 ft drive-way x 5-ft deep snow x 10 lbs/cubic foot wet snow = 25-tons.”  Getting hard to walk the dog.   Temps. in low 20s in Mobile AL this morning – record cold.   Montgomery, Alabama fell to 16°, second coldest November morning in recorded history!   170 record low temperatures in 32 states!  Niagara women’s basketball team rescued after spending over 24 hours in their stranded bus on the NY freeway.  Here’s the low temperature map for the U.S. this morning.    Hope this roof is sturdy!

 


What else, more snow

November 19th, 2014 at 4:29 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

. Here’s the GRR NWS discussion.  We have a Winter Weather Advisory for the lakeshore counties for as much as 3-6″ of new snow.  Inland counties will see an additional 1-3″  Winds will shift from the south early (with the lake-effect band along the lakeshore) to the west.  Then you’ll see the lake-effect snow push inland once again and weaken a bit.  Cold air will keep snow showers going Weds. night into Thurs. night with another 1-5″ likely.

Grand Rapids has had 3.1% of possible sunshine in the last 8 days and only 11.3% sunshine in the last half month.  Including today, Grand Rapids has had measurable snow 8 days in a row.  We had a daily record snowfall yesterday with 9.6″ and we’re over 20″ for the month – in 6th place for snowiest Novembers and moving up.  We are now 5.9 deg. cooler than average for Nov.   The high temp. of 19 in G.R. on Tuesday was a record low high temperature for Nov. 18 (beating 23 on 11/18/89).  Kalamazoo had a high of 17, a full 30 degrees colder than the average high for Nov. 18.

Check out the links below:

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast (totals increased on the Sat. overnight model run). Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indian radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.

I’ve been saying that we’ll have some schools closed on Tues. The NAM (car) model has a temp. of 22.5 Tues. AM (and it stays in the low 20s all day), a west wind off the lake at 24 mph, snow plus blowing and drifting snow. The NAM forecasts 2.3″ for G.R. (airport) tonight/tomorrow..another inch Monday and an additional 8″ from Monday night into Tuesday night. The GFS3 has less with a total of 5″ thru Weds. for the airport. In any case, they’ll be enough snow to drift around in the brisk winds from late Mon. thru Weds. t’hat model also has a temp. of +1° for G.R. next Sat. morning. The European model has 0.43″ total precipitation thru Thurs. for G.R. That’d be 7-8″ of total snowfall, with enough wind for some 1-2 foot drifts.

 


Incredible Lake-Effect Snow!

November 19th, 2014 at 2:48 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Snow New York 11 18 14 New York State Thruway Blizzard 11 18 14   Look at this picture of trucks/cars stranded on I-90 south of Buffalo NY.  Look at the snowbank to the right of the trucks!  Another view of the stuck trucks.  More pics. here. and here.   As I write this, both Lancaster and Gardenville report 60″ of new snow with W. Seneca checking in with 57″.   Six miles north of the 60″ report, there was less than 4″ of snowfall.   Forecasts are up to 90″ possible!  Here’s Buffalo radar, showing the lake-effect snow coming off Lake Erie.  Thundersnow was reported.  Here’s Montague NY radar, showing the intense band of snow coming off Lake Ontario.   National 24-hr. record for snow: 76″, Silver Lake, CO.   Some Buffalo suburbs approached this Tuesday – possibly highest 24-hr. snow in a populated area in world history!  Snow up to 6-foot high fence.  The bumps at the top of this picture are cars.  Seriously?   Look at this video of the snow squalls a few miles to the south of the camera.  Note the lifting of the clouds over the relatively warmer water.   Satellite view of the lake-effect bandsPolice rescue fire fighters from stranded fire engine on snowmobilesBasketball team stranded on bus for 24 hoursWow!

Also, cold in Ohio


Advisory Extended

November 18th, 2014 at 9:37 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory   The G.R. NWS has added another  Winter Weather Advisory.  This for Newaygo, Kent, Barry, Kalamazoo and Montcalm Counties until 3 am.  it’s a Winter Storm Warning for Berrien and Cass.  NWS is forecasting 6-10″ by Thursday night for those 2 counties.


Snow Showers Continue

November 18th, 2014 at 5:52 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory   The Winter Storm Warning (pink color on the map) continues to 9 pm.  The Winter Weather Advisoryfor Oceola, Mecosta, Montcalm, Ingham and Jackson County has been cancelled.  A new Winter Weather Advisory will start at 9 pm for the lakeshore counties from Van Buren County to the north.  We also have a Winter Storm Watch for the counties that border Indiana (Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph).

The high temperature so far in Kalamazoo has been 17°, that’s 30 degrees colder than the average high of 47° for Kalamazoo.  The high of 19° so far today is four degrees colder than the previous coldest high temperature for Nov. 18, which was 23° in 1989.  Snowfall today at the Ford Airport through 5 pm has been 7.3″.  Add the 6″ that fell yesterday and that’s 13.3″.  The monthly total of 18.2″ makes it the 9th snowiest November and more coming for the next 48 hours.  Muskegon has picked up 1.5″ of snow since midnight.  The heaviest snow has been inland in eastern Ottawa and Kent Co. with less snow at the lakeshore.

Snow totals so far downwind from Lake Erie


Snow Tuesday

November 18th, 2014 at 12:28 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

5:10 pm – Several heavy bands of snow, which you can see in the darker blue color.  Over a foot fo snow has fallen from far nrothern Allegan Co. into E. Ottawa and Kent Co.  We had a report of 11″ from Oshtemo, west of Kalamazoo, where there was a car/train accident.  Roads are snow covered and slippery and traffic moves slowly when you get in heavy snow showers.

Over 400 schools closed this morning – including G.R., Kalamazoo and Grand Valley St. Univ.  At my house, I’ve got 13.5″ of new snow on the bird bath and it’s still coming down – .  Lots of snow overhanging my gutter on the east side of the house.

This is the coldest morning in the U.S. in November since 1976!! It was snowing as far south as Columbus, Georgia this morning.  It’s in the upper 20s this am in northwest Florida.  Lake-effect snow and snow showers continue today.  Under the dominant bands, you could see 12-18″ of accumulation with drifts easily over 2 feet by the time this winds down.   Even areas outside the band are getting 6″-plus with lighter amounts east and southeast of Battle Creek and from Montcalm Co. to the northeast.    Here’s the GRR NWS discussion.    Weds. AM a dominant SSW band of lake-effect snow will form from Grand Haven north into Muskegon, Oceana and Mason Counties (maybe W. Newaygo Co. and could drop +6″.  The band will weaken and shift east as the wind goes more westerly in the afternoon.  Snow flurries could last into Friday AM.  We will warm enough to get rain showers over the weekend, with an outside chance of a brief period of freezing rain on Sat. before it gets above 32 degrees.

 

Grand Rapids has had 3.6% sunshine in the last week and only 12.1% sunshine in the last 2 weeks.  The mid-Lake Michigan buoy is still out there and it shows a water temp. of 44 degrees.  The north Lake Michigan buoy is at 43.4 deg. and both the east and mid-Lake Superior buoys show a water temp. of 39.4 deg.  G.R. has now had six consecutive days with high temps. in the low-mid 30s (average high is 47).

This snow is all lake-effect – very dry air mass over most of the U.S.   Unseasonably cold day across most of the country.  Check out the record cold temperatures!   For date of Nov 18th, this is coldest, earliest in month since at least 1958.   HRRR model at 8 am Tues forecasts CONUS (Lower 48) temp of 20.0°F –> coldest in records back to 1979 for entire November.  20°F forecast for Tues. morning for CONUS Lower 48 average would be lowest for month of November since Nov 29-30, 1976 –> 38 yrs!!  Now a full 3°C below 1981-2010 climate normal for CONUS Lower 48 average temperature for month-to-date November!  Thundersnow!!

Check out the links below:

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast (totals increased on the Sat. overnight model run). Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indian radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.

I’ve been saying that we’ll have some schools closed on Tues. The NAM (car) model has a temp. of 22.5 Tues. AM (and it stays in the low 20s all day), a west wind off the lake at 24 mph, snow plus blowing and drifting snow. The NAM forecasts 2.3″ for G.R. (airport) tonight/tomorrow..another inch Monday and an additional 8″ from Monday night into Tuesday night. The GFS3 has less with a total of 5″ thru Weds. for the airport. In any case, they’ll be enough snow to drift around in the brisk winds from late Mon. thru Weds. t’hat model also has a temp. of +1° for G.R. next Sat. morning. The European model has 0.43″ total precipitation thru Thurs. for G.R. That’d be 7-8″ of total snowfall, with enough wind for some 1-2 foot drifts.

 


Get a Bill’s Blog T-Shirt

November 18th, 2014 at 12:05 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Art Van Santa Claus Parade Logo   Hey, we are looking for 10-12 volunteers to walk along beside me in the Santa Parade in downtown Grand Rapids on Saturday, November 22.  A Bill Steffen T-Shirt will be provided, but you have to be there by 8:15am.  You’ll walk the parade, and hand out Bill Steffen Mustaches.  Contact Laura.Rizzo@woodtv.com if you are interested and to get more details.   Note – the parade starts at 9 am.  I’ll be leaving when I’m done in the G.R. parade, so I can get to Hudsonville and be in that parade.


Winter Storm Warning until 9 pm

November 17th, 2014 at 4:07 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

advisory  Click on the graphics to enlarge.nohrsc  A Winter Storm WARNING (pink color on the map on the left) will be in effect for most of the area until 9 pm Tues.  It’s a Winter Weather Advisory for the counties along US 127 plus Montcalm, Mecosta, Osceola, Branch and Hillsdale Counties.  This is for a combination of significant snowfall, strong winds, blowing and drifting snow, low wind chills (especially by November standards), low visibilities and hazardous driving.  We could see snowfall from 1-2″ in Southern Branch and Hillsdale Counties, to a foot with 2+ foot drifts downwind from the fattest part of Lake Michigan.   Again, I do anticipate quite a few school closings for Tuesday.  There are Gale Warnings for the Lake Michigan shore areas.  Here’s a map of NAM model snowfall and GFS model snowfall.  See links in threads below.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery.  Temperatures will be in the upper teens to low 20s tonight and tomorrow (average high temp. for today is 47°).  The afternoon G.R. National Weather Service discussion says there is a possibility of isolated thunder and lightning in the heaviest snow showers tonight!

On the right, the Monday morning snow cover map shows that the Continental U.S. has a 50.4% snow cover!   This is the most snow on the ground that I can remember this early in the season.  It’s more than 20% above the 10-year average for Nov. 17th.    There were snow flurries all the way down to Dallas, Texas on Sunday – the first time it’s ever snowed in Dallas on any Nov. 16.  Here’s snow on the ground this morning in Kentucky.  The surface weather map shows the cold air that’s coming.   At 8 am it was 24° in G.R. and only 10° in Milwaukee with a wind chill factor of -5°.  As the snow picks up, roads will get very slick.  Tornado last night in Blountsville, Florida.  Two injuries were reported.  The tornado hit the Panhandle State Prison, where about 30 cars were damage (some flipped).  Significant  building damage there.  Almost 7 inches of rain in parts of Alabama over the past 24 hours.  Here’s snow on the ground in Cincinnati (snowday for the Cincinnati Reds!)Snow on the ground in Oklahoma and Tennessee.

At 5:45 pm – Quite variable conditions, with some heavy snow showers and just a few flakes in between the snow showers. Downwind from the fattest part of Lake Michigan, I could easily see some spots getting a foot or more of snowfall total by Weds. evening with 18-24″ drifts.  When the wind is stronger, the heaviest lake-effect snow can fall inland from the lake, with lesser amounts at the shoreline.   Roads will become very icy as the snow picks up in intensity.  Temperatures are in the upper teens to low 20s with wind chills in the single figures.   Colder than average weather setting up for the winter in the populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere…Eastern U.S., Europe and China.

Tweet from Joe Bastardi:  “Weatherbell showing similar set up to 1976,with enso from Sept hurricane activity, n hem snow cover. Similar conditions, similar results.”  The winter of 1976-77 was the coldest G.R. has seen in the last 110 years.  If we get early cold, lots of ice on Lake Michigan could minimize lake snow and lake warming.  This is the kind of winter when we have a chance of having an Arctic high pressure center park over us with clear skies and calm winds – we could challenge all-time record low temps. (-24° for G.R., set in 1899 – G.R. made -22F in Jan. 1994).


Winter Storm Watch!

November 16th, 2014 at 3:53 pm by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

advisory   The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for most of West Michigan from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.  The Watch will likely be upgraded to a Warning.  The NWS warns of “heavy lake-effect snow, strong west winds, blowing and drifting snow, wind chills down to zero, possible whiteout conditions, dangerous driving conditions”.  Read the G.R. NWS discussion.  It says:  “INSTABILITY BECOMES EXTREME AS THE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN FROM THE  WEST AND (Lake Michigan) WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY IN THE MID 40S. THUS A CONSIDERABLE RESPONSE FROM THE LAKE IS EXPECTED… IF 500 MB TEMPERATURES DO  FALL TO COLDER THAN MINUS 40 OVER THE LAKE…AS SHOWN BY THE NAM  AND GFS (models)…THAT IS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THAT LEVEL…WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL. MODELS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO OVER 15,000  FT…WITH STRONGER OMEGA IN THE DGZ. ALL THIS SPELLS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MI…ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO AN I-94 BAND OF SNOW…EXTENDING WELL INLAND TOWARD BATTLE CREEK AND CHARLOTTE…IT LOOKS TO ME LIKE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE MONDAY. THIS IS WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S…INSTABILITY INCREASES CONSIDERABLY AND MIXING HEIGHTS  DEEPEN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THAT COMBINED  WITH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AND THUS A RISK WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. THUS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL  FOR HIGHWAY PILEUPS…ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF I96…I196 AND  I94. POSSIBLY FOR THE MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE…BUT MOST LIKELY FOR  MUCH OF TUESDAY.  It won’t be much better on Weds.  I’ve mentioned for several days that we’ll see school closings on Tuesday (and maybe Wednesday).  Travel Monday will be better early than late.  Travel Monday night and Tuesday may be difficult and time-consuming. NAM  The wintry pattern will last much of the week.  Gale Warnings will be in effect for the Lake Michigan shoreline.       Also:  WOW – latest CFS model says cold winter for much of the U.S.   Bittersweet Ski Area staying open ’til 9 today (Sun.).

NAM model forecast snowfall, GFS model forecast snowfall, NWS snowfall forecastLower Michigan snow forecast map.

 

Coldest in 127 years of record!