December 9th, 2013 at 2:10 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Monday PM – I’ll leave radar at the top of the blog with more snow showers/ flurries likely. Check the next thread for more, including updated model data. First, interesting note…they’re raising money to help out the guy who’s car got overturned at Michigan State in the post-game celebration last night. We received 1-4″ of yesterday PM and overnight. A few spots have also picked up a touch of freezing drizzle. Roads have slick spots and the wind is strong so there is drifting snow. There was a Freezing Rain (drizzle) Advisory up overnight for Northern Indiana. It’s well below freezing, so the snow is sticking. The average high for G.R. is 37 today and Sunday we only made 23. It was 8 degrees warmer in Fairbanks, Alaska Sunday than it was in G.R.
Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 2 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. This was as of 7 am EST, so many of these weather stations (esp. in the West) would have dropped another couple of degrees before sunrise. There’s a definite chance of at least flurries in Fresno CA. The last snowflake they saw was on 12/15/08 and the last measurable snow was 12/20/1998. It was easy to tell where the cold front is on the temperature anomaly map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts.
Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Keep checking back to this thread for these links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Rainfall (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy, the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agriculutural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations.
We’ll have to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air settles in next week. Here’s some river water temps. Also, many inland lakes will be icing up in the next 10 days. Beware of early thin ice.
December 9th, 2013 at 2:05 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
This is the U.S. high temperature map from Sunday. A few notable cold high temps: Brownsville TX 49 – 2nd day in a row they didn’t get to 50, Dallas 33 – still a lot of ice left from the freezing rain. Eugene OR 19 – Eugene had a low temp. of -10 and that was the 2nd coldest temperature ever recorded in Eugene – going back to 1890!! The 3rd coldest temperature was -7 set on Saturday, the day before! Same thing for Redmond OR. They had their 2nd coldest morning in record history this morning with a low of -26; second only to the -28 back on Dec. 8, 1972. Snowfall on Sunday in Philadelphia totaled 8.6″ (much of that fell during the Lions/Eagles game! More snow fell Sunday PM in Philadelphia than fell ALL of last winter! Here’s Calvin Johnson’s catch where his face gets planted in the snow. There was either snow falling or snow on the ground at five NFL games on Sunday. There were snow flurries at Austin, Texas – the first time they have ever had now on 12/8. The arctic outbreak of 12/2013 is one of the 5 coldest December arctic outbreaks in Denver weather history. The high temperature in Fairbanks, Alaska on Sunday was 8 degrees warmer than the high temperature in Grand Rapids, MI and 2 degrees warmer than the high temperature in Oklahoma City!
Model update: The European gives G.R. another 1/2″ of snow during the day today (Mon.), an inch Tues. PM and around 3″ on Weds. Also 1/2″ Thursday, a dusting Friday and another .25″ from Friday night to Monday morning, which would likely be another 4″ of snow. The coldest temperature on the Euro. for G.R. (airport) is 4.8F Weds. evening, with an 850 mb temp. of -21.9C. The Euro. says we have a shot at the low 30s Friday and maybe Saturday and that’s it. The GFS cranks up the wind (for G.R.) to 18 mph today and 25 mph at midday Tues. It as a dusting to an inch and a half each day this week. The coldest temp. for G.R. is 10 Thurs. AM. On the GFS, Saturday is the only day we reach 32 over the next week and nothing above the mid-upper 30s thru the 23rd…so if that’s right, we’re virtually assured of a White Christmas. The NAM (not surprisingly) cranks out the most snow…just a dusting during the day today, with the wind up to 19 mph in the PM. For G.R. the model has 2.6″ of snow from Tuesday PM into Tuesday night and another 5″ of snow on Weds. Holland gets the most on the NAM Wednesday with 7.7″. The NAM also has the strongest winds – as high as 23 mph on Tues., which would certainly cause some drifting.
December 8th, 2013 at 1:05 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Check out the Lions/Eagles game on FOX – Philadelphia is 1/4 mile visibility in heavy snow at noon, 1 pm and 2 pm! Check out this pic. Snow falling at the rate of +1″ an hour. Pictures here. Here’s Philadelphia radar and Philadelphia weather observations. There’s a Winter Storm Warning there for up to 6″ of snow. How many fumbles, dropped passes and slips are we going to see? Field position will be important – and try not to go backwards…hard to see the punts. Kudos to the Eagles Punter so far (2nd quarter). Note to announcers of the game…it’s not a blizzard, not enough wind…but it is heavy snow. Good luck seeing the sideline signals. Here’s an example of a big-time football game played in a blizzard. Note the game stats. Many crashes on Pennsylvania expressways. It’s also snowing at the NFL games in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Picture from www.nbcphiladelphia. They report: “gridlock on roads across the region, bringing traffic to a complete stop on two different sections of I-95 and closing down the Platt Bridge which leads to Philadelphia International Airport. Multiple accidents were also reported on the Pennsylvania Turnpike. The Platt Bridge closed down in both directions due to hazardous conditions at 1:15 p.m.”
December 8th, 2013 at 12:52 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click on the image to enlarge. This is the high temp. map from Saturday (form SUNY). From Dr. Ryan Maue: “Since 1979 using hi-resolution NCEP CFSR reanalysis data, December 7th is earliest sub. 15°F CONUS average temperature day — previous Dec 16, 1989.” The average Continental U.S. temperature bottomed out at 14.5 Sat. AM. Some of the cold temperatures are nothing short of extraordinary. Havre, Montana had a high temperature of -21 on Saturday – that was 53 degrees colder than average! For 3 days now, temperatures have averaged 47 degrees colder than average at Havre. The -14 high at Great Falls MT was 49 deg. colder than average, the high of -13 at Sheridan WY was also 49 deg. colder than average. The -14 high temp. at Miles City MT was 44 deg. colder than average. Colorado Springs, with an average high temperature of 43 has now had 4 consecutive days with highs of 18, 6, 6, 7. Garden City KS (avg. high 47) has had highs of 15, 16, 13 the past 3 days. A few other highs with the average high in ( ): 22 Eugene OR (46), Brownsville TX 47 (73), Dallas TX 27 (59), Lubbock TX 17 (55), Laredo TX 39 (69), Little Rock AR 28 (54), Harrison AR 20 (50) , Las Vegas NH 17 (47), Chadron NE -2 (39), Wausaw WI 0 (29), Duluth MN -4 (25), Memphis TN 29 (54).
Model update: The overnight European doesn’t take the temperature above freezing in G.R. until the 17th. The Euro. gives G.R. 0.12″ precip. Sun. night (1.5 -2″ snow), with more snow showers into Monday night and another .11″ on Weds. All total G.R. would get maybe 5-6″ in the next week. The NAM gives G.R. 1.8″ of snow Sunday night, Muskegon gets 2.6″ and Ludington 2.9″. It has another 1.5″ Tues. PM. The GFS plot gives G.R. .10″ Sunday night (1.5″ of snow maybe) and the first above freezing day is next Saturday.
Speaking of cold, this is Antarctica.
December 7th, 2013 at 8:00 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, News, Weather
Cold weather and early deep snow cover have contributed to a “phenomenal” (but there are other factors) early December migration of snowy owls into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The picture is from Pennsylvania this past week. Here’s a map of snowy owl sightings. Sightings have been reported in Vermont, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, and in fact all the way down to N. Carolina and Bermuda. Needless to say, Harry Potter is excited! Picture from www.nbcphiladelphia.
December 7th, 2013 at 12:04 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, News, Weather
Click on the images to enlarge. The image on the left is snowcover across the U.S. and southern Canada this morning. According to the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center the U.S. had a 55.5% snow cover this morning. The 2nd image to the right is what the snow cover was last year on this date (12/7/12). Only 10% of the U.S. had a snow cover. The average U.S. temperature at 9 am this morning was 14.5 degrees, the fifth coldest hour since the year 2000. Note the range of temperatures from 79.9 to -43.5. Lake Michigan made a big difference last night, warming the air coming across the lake. Low temperature contrast this morning: Green Bay 0, Frankfort 17 – Milwaukee 4 (at Mitchell Field – 2 at Timmerman) and 19 in Grand Rapids – 9 in Chicago and 21 at South Bend. It was -11 at Wakefield and Champion in the U.P., -16 in Rhinelander WI, -39 at Jordan and Havre MT, -35 at Miles City MT (broke their record low by 12 degrees) -13 in Denver (3rd straight morning with lows below -12), 20 in Seattle, 15 in Eugene OR, 33 Tucson AZ, -5 at Dodge City KS, -24 Valentine NE. 5.4″ of snow fell just northwest of Redding CA. Here’s the record temperature map…warm in Florida and Alaska, cold in-between. I’m watching the SMU Football game on ESPN…there’s NOBODY THERE (est. 500, probably many of those family of the players)! – They announced that tickets were free! SMU cancelled their basketball game. College basketball games were also cancelled in Fort Worth, Memphis and Tulsa. The is the coldest temperature (24) that the Univ. of Central Florida has ever played in! There were 270,000 without power in the Dallas area after a major snow and ice storm. It won’t get out of the 20s in Dallas today. The Dallas Marathon was cancelled.
December 7th, 2013 at 3:38 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click on the image to enlarge. This is the Friday CPC 6-10 day outlook for the 11th-15th. As you can see, there”s a lot of blue (better chance of colder than average temperatures. Looking at the overnight data…the European doesn’t bring the temperature above freezing in G. R. until Dec. 16th! The coldest temperatures (around +5) come Weds. AM and Sat. AM. The European gives G.R. a total of 0.31″ for the next week…at a 20-1 water-to-snow ratio, that would be 6″ of snow – add some drifting to that, too. Both the GFS and Euro. give G.R. 0.10″ of precipitation Sun. night – so maybe an inch and a half. The Euro. has snow showers and flurries more on than off thru Thurs. The GFS plot has 0.27″ precip. for the week, so pretty close to the Euro. It has the coldest temps. in the low teens with the strongest wind at 22 mph around midday/early afternoon Tues. The NAM still has the most snow Sunday night at 2.3″ for G.R. Snowfall will likely be a little higher to the northwest of G.R. and less to the southeast of G.R.
Also: Check out the video of flooding in the Canary Is. Here’s a pic. to go along with the video. This morning the average temperature across the U.S. could be as much as 4 degrees F colder than the coldest average temperature all last winter across the U.S. Scroll down a couple threads to see radar and links.
December 6th, 2013 at 9:32 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
These are two different views of the snow cover across the U.S. and Canada. This (Fri.) morning we had snow on the ground over 46.3% of the Lower 48 states. That compares to just 6% on 12/7/12. Big difference. Hudson Bay is now about 75% ice covered and Lake Nipigon will be next. Look at the snow cover down in Texas and in places like Oregon. Some wicked cold afternoon high temperatures: -14 Miles City MT, -13 Havre, Cut Bank and Glasgow MT (there were a couple of spots across the Canadian border with highs of -20F!), -9 Devils Lake and Minot ND and Cody WY, -7 Alexandria MN, -1 Valentine NE, 7 Colorado Springs (beat yesterday by 1 deg.), 26 Eugene OR, 29 Dallas TX, 31 Junction TX, 42 Las Vegas NV (beat yesterday by one deg.), 48 Brownsville TX. On the warm side, the high was 86 in Fort Myers FL and 85 in Orlando FL. Quite a temperature contrast across the front with New Orleans at 82 at Baton Rouge at 57….Rome GA at 77 and Nashville TN at 37. Cannonsburg Ski Area opens Saturday. Bittersweet will be open this weekend. Here’s Michigan ski conditions.
Also: A summary and graph of Global Tropical Cyclones Landfalls from 1970 through 2013 from Dr. Roger Pelkie Jr. and Dr. Ryan Maue.
December 6th, 2013 at 9:11 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Sports, Weather
We’ve got some big football games this weekend. Michigan State (#10) and Ohio State (they think they’re #1) play for the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis (on FOX). That’s an 8:17 pm kickoff and I like State’s chances in this one. Grand Valley (11-2) hosts West Texas A & M (11-2) in a Div. 2 playoff game. the temperature will be about 21 at game time. There are some tickets available, but bundle up. The game is on Xfinity and on radio on the ESPN (96.1 in G.R.) Grand Valley radio network. Northern Illinois is playing Bowling Green St. Univ. this evening aiming at a BCS berth. N. Illinois is a perfect 12-0, but Bowling Green has won their last 4 games by a combined 176-17. That’s on ESPN2. WOTV4 has Oklahoma (#17) and Oklahoma St. (#6) at noon and Duke-Florida St. at 8 PM. The Detroit Lions (7-5) head to Philadelphia to play the Eagles (also 7-5). The Philly Q.B. has been rockin’ good of late (they’ve won 4 in a row), but Farley and Suh are coming to town. The Sunday Night Football game is Carolina at New Orleans on WOOD, TV-8 and the Monday night game is Dallas at Chicago (another very cold game with temps. in the teens and wind chills near zero). In basketball, Houston Baptist is at Michigan at noon Sat. on the Big Ten network. My Badgers play Marquette at 2 pm. Delaware at Notre Dame is at 4 PM, WMU at Northwestern at 5 PM and Central at SIU/Edwardsburg is at 8 PM. Several games have been postponed because of the snow and ice down in N. Texas and Arkansas. I saw Tiger Woods had 10 birdies and 8 pars for a course and tournament record 62 today in the relatively cool conditions at Thousand Oaks, California. Happy weekend everybody. Thanks for reading the blog.