Keep the umbrella handy today. Showers are likely. . The NAM (car.) would hold the rain off for much of the area for the morning commute, but rain should develop in most areas by midday. It might take a little longer for the rain to start SE of Kent Co. The Sundasy run of the NAM (car.) gives G.R. 0.35″ of rain..and an average of about 1/4″ to the area. The GFS-plot has a weaker (prob. too weak) 0.05″ for G.R. (but 0.57″ for Ludington). The GFS-plot also has another 0.78″ from Friday night into early next Sunday. The models have highs in the low-mid 60s today with the GFS gradually warming us up to the low 70s by next weekend. The European model has 0.20″ for G.R. on Monday and another 0.58″ from Friday night to Saturday night (Sunday would be the brighter half of next weekend). The European would take us back to 70 degrees Thurs. PM. (picture by Michelle Olin).
And (from Chicago NWS and John Gehr): The recent streak on September 11-13 of days with highs in the 50s in Chicago was the earliest streak of three consecutive days or more with highs less than 60 degrees on record. Records in Chicago go back to 1871. Overall…it was only the 23rd time such a streak has occurred in the month of September. The longest streak was 6 consecutive days back in 1875 from 9/17 until 9/22. September 11: 56° new record low for the date. Previous: 61° in 1940 September 12: 55° September 13: 59°
Click the graphic to enlarge. It’s a little early for this. The National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for Mason, Lake, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Osceola and Clare Counties. Skies will be mostly clear tonight. Urban areas will dip to the upper 30s to near 40, while cold spots, mainly to the north of Kent County will see temperatures down to the low 30s with scattered frost. We’ll also have patchy fog during the early morning. At midnight, it’s already down to 33 at Cadillac and Houghton Lake and 37 at Ludington. The skies are mostly clear, but (as I write this) no northern lights (aurora). It’ll be mostly sunny Sunday pm with a period of light rain on Monday. (image from the National Weather Service).
The overnight run of the NAM (Caribou) gives G.R. an early morning low this Sunday of 36° and a high this afternoon of 62°. Monday morning’s low is 42° with a high of 63°. The NAM gives G.R. 0.09″ of rain. Tuesday’s high and low on the NAM for G.R. is 40° and 64°.
McAllen, Texas has received 4.33″ of rain since Friday morning, more rain than they received from June through August!
Saturday 10:20 am – The rain has ended, except for a band of lake-effect light rainshowers that comes onshore in far SW Allegan and Van Buren Co. and extends down to the Indiana border (radar pic. on the left is at 10:10 am). That band will shrink and die out as drier air works in during the midday. It’s not impossible that there could be a waterspout out over the lake until the band dissipates. The second image is a satellite view, showing skies have become partly sunny over a good portion of West Michigan. We’ll stay partly sunny thru mid-afternoon and become mostly clear toward late afternoon. The 3rd and 4th images are pictures from mid-morning from the GLERL cameras at Muskegon (showing calmer water because of the NNE wind with some boats out and then South Haven, where the north wind is producing bigger waves that are crashing over the breakwater. At 10 pm, the temperature was an even 50 in G.R. Cadillac was 44, so this north wind will keep us quite cool (for Sept. 13th) today. Rainfall last night was heaviest north of G.R., where Reed City had 0.72″ and Mt. Pleasant 0.70″. Grand Rapids had 0.30″ and just a trace to a few hundredths of an inch fell south/southeast of Battle Creek. Here’s more rainfall totals for W. Michigan. No severe thunderstorms for the U.S. over the next several days. There were no severe weather reports anywhere in the U.S. yesterday. Overall dry pattern for the next week from S. Michigan to Tennessee. We’ll get some light rain showers on Monday. Forecast rainfall amounts on Monday for G.R.: GFS-plot 0.02″, European 0.03″, NAM (caribou) 0.37″ (NAM is often the highest of the 3 totals). This is the only rain now thru next Thurs. While the GFS does take G.R.’s high temps. back to the low 70s by Thursday, the European keeps us cool, with lows for G.R. next Friday AM in the mid 30s. Heavy rains are likely in Florida and along the Gulf Coast. Moisture from Tropical Storm Odile will produce significant rain once again in Arizona and S. California. The drought in Central California continues. Crops there are irrigated. Overall this has been a very good year for agriculture in the U.S.
Showers will spread from NW to SE during the late afternoon and evening. The morning run of the NAM (caribou) has the rain in G.R. mainly falls between 5 pm and 7 am tomorrow morning. It has rain reaching Kalamazoo by around 8-9 pm. Plan on taking the ponchos and rain gear if you’re headed out to a game this Friday evening. The NAM (car.) gives us 1/4 to 3/5ths inch of rain tonight. It’s east of us by around 10 am Saturday with the sun coming out Sat. PM. The model also gives G.R. a low of 36 Sunday morning, so we may be looking at Frost Advisories for Sat. night. We’re going to cover 21 games tonight, inc. Lowell/East G.R., Mona Shores/Rockford and Portage Northern/St. Joseph.
Frost and freeze in parts of the U.P. this AM – morning lows: 33 Marquette, 31 Houghton, 29 Watersmeet, 28 Doe Lake, 26 Kenton. A mix of rain and snow last night at Ironwood.
This picture from www.uppermichiganssource.com is Lakeshore Boulevard in Marquette today. The combination of strong north winds and rising Lake Superior water levels caused waves to crash over the boulder-wall and onto the roadway Thursday morning. More pictures and video here.
The water level of Lake Superior is up 1″ in the last month (at a time when the lake often loses water) and is now up 8″ in the past year. Superior is now 7″ higher than the long-term average water level. The water level of Lake Michigan/Huron (one lake for lake level purposes) is up another inch in the last week and (drum roll) the water level is now one inch ABOVE the average September lake level! Get this…Lake Michigan/Huron is now 19 inches higher than it was one year ago, an unprecedented 12-month increase! That’s a gain of 7.41 trillion gallons of water in just 12 months. Lake Huron has gained 7.6 trillion gallons of water in the past year, Lake Superior 4.4 trillion gallons and Lake Erie 1.02 trillion gallons. That’s a total gain of 20.4 TRILLION gallons of water to the Great Lakes in just 12 months! Lake Erie is 6″ higher than it was one year ago and 6″ above the average water level. Lake Ontario is unchanged in the last year and 3″ above the average water level. Lake St Clair is up 11″ year-to-year and is 7″ above the September average level. Quite the opposite from this article (press release) that came out only 2 1/2 months ago.
It was only 52° at noon here on the beach at Muskegon (pic. from the Muskegon GLERL cam. – from NOAA Coastwatch). We’ve had a band of lake-effect light rain that we have been able to see coming into W. Allegan and Van Buren Co. There are still a few sprinkles and pockets of drizzle/mist elsewhere, but it’s all pretty light. We’ll have a chilly night tonight. The morning run of the NAM (caribou) takes G.R. to 39.3° at daybreak. We’ll be dry during most of the day tomorrow, but rain moves in for tomorrow night from NW to SE. The NAM (car.) has rain starting in Muskegon around 6 pm, G.R. at 7 pm, Kalamazoo at 10-11 am and not until around 1-2 am for Jackson. So the Friday night football games may be wet (and chilly) esp. to the west and north of G.R. It’s not impossible that really cold spots (mainly north of Kent Co.) could see a little scattered light frost either tomorrow AM or Sunday AM (when the wind should be calm).
Heavy snow in Custer SD. Earliest significant snow on record at Rapid City (and records go back to 1888). Quite the cold shot from E. Canada to the S. Plains to E. Washington/Oregon. A lot of the parameters that led to the cold winter from the N. Rockies to the Great Lakes are still in place now. Monroe MI in the southeast corner of the state had 4.72″ of rain yesterday! Heavy rain hit much of the state – 3.20″ at Marquette (city) and 2.31″ at Escanaba. The most in the U.P. was 4.31″ in Harvey. Big Bay had 3.34″. The low temperature this am was 32° at Stambaugh, 36° at Herman and Paulding and 38° at Ironwood and Marquette (airport). Grand Rapids was 2.7° warmer than average for the first 10 days of Sept. – but we’ll eat through that in the next week.
The cold air is pouring into Lower Michigan and it’s going to be sticking around for awhile. I don’t think we reach 70 again until the middle of next week. The gusty winds have caused some power outages. As of 10:40 pm, Consumers Energy reports 2,926 customers without power. That includes 493 customers in Kent Co., 738 in Allegan Co. and 484 in Moncalm Co. and 406 in Kalamazoo Co. This is the 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. We know it’s going to be colder than average for the next 6 days and this map takes us to Sept. 16-20. It shows a greater chance of cooler than average temperatures from much of Texas to the Great Lakes and east to the Atlantic.
Shiverin’ Snowman look at this! At 2 am Heavy snow was falling in Custer, SD, located near Mount Rushmore. Great Falls, Montana had snow yesterday. Fairbanks, Alaska has not had snow yet. At midnight, Eagle River, Wisconsin was reporting “flurries”.
A kayaker had to be rescued by surfers at Grand Haven State Park. The peak wind gust at the Grand Haven Steelheaders Weather station was 40 mph. The biggest waves at the Port Sheldon buoy this afternoon was 9.8 feet. We had the rescue live on 24-Hour News 8 at 6 pm. We’ll have the story and interviews with the rescuers on the news tonight at 10 pm on WXSP and at 11 pm on WOOD-TV-8. We think the video will make the TODAY SHOW tomorrow morning – so watch DAYBREAK and the TODAY Show tomorrow morning. Here’s a link to our web story. Here’s a live picture of the waves at Grand Haven State Park right now.
Two of Bill’s Blog’s favorite people will be on DAYBREAK Thurs. AM to talk about beach safety and the rescue yesterday. They are Bob Pratt, Director of Education, Great Lakes Surf & Rescue Project and later in the program he’ll be joined by, Vicki Cech – who began the Beach Survival Challenge to purchase liferings and promote beach safety. Tune into Daybreak from 4-7 am on WOOD-TV Thursday am.
Five tornadoes hit near Cleveland OH this PM – near the towns of Rittman, Stow, Streetsburo and Hiram. Story on Stow damage. There has been building damage and a road is blocked by debris. Wind damage was reported at a mall near St. Louis and at Salem, Oblong and Breese, Illinois and at Lizton, Odon and Farmland, Indiana. Here’s Storm Reports for Weds. from SPC. Most of West Michigan had 2/3rds to 1 inch of rain. Coldwater reports 1.7″ of rain. 4.5″ of rain fell in Huntington IN. I-475 was closed in Toledo due to flooding. Waves to 10-feet at the Port Sheldon buoy Weds. evening. Gusts to 45 mph at Castle Park in Allegan Co., 43 mph at Holland Harbor, 40 mph at Grand Haven (channel), 39 mph at Muskegon, 37 mph at S. Haven. Here’s radar for SW Michigan, SE Michigan, NW Ohio, N Indiana, Indianapolis and regional radar.