These are the 6-10 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center for Oct. 6-10. Note that we will be in a pattern that we have been in often this year, with cool weather centered over the N. Plains and Great Lakes and wet weather centered over the Great Lakes. No snow yet, but a cool pattern for the first full week of October.
Click on the image to enlarge. The fall color change is a few days earlier than the past couple years. The overall cool and cloudy pattern for Friday into next week will accelerate the fall color show. This graphic from the NWS in Gaylord highlights the areas of best color (on 9/27) in the U.P. and just north of S. Ste. Marie. In Lower Michigan, the higher elevations from Cadillac/Lake City up toward the Mac. Bridge get their best fall color first by a few days with the SW Lake Michigan shore usually (not always) last by a few days. It’s cloudy and much cooler this afternoon. High temperatures were in the upper 70s yesterday an d I promised you it’d be 20 degrees cooler today. The lower sun angle makes it harder to mix out the low clouds behind a cold front as we get into fall, so we have more cloudy days light this. Morning model data still points to a strong cold front, a good soaking and a chilly weekend. The NAM (car.) – the first model out in late morning gives G.R. a total of 1.27″ of rain from late Thurs. thru Friday AM. It has highs of 66 tomorrow (Weds.) and 75 Thurs. and 63 on Friday. The GFS-plot gives G.R. 0.71″ of rain for late Thurs. thru Fri. AM with highs of 69, 75 and 66 for the next 3 days. The 850mb temp. crashes 10 de g. C on Friday – strong cold front. It takes G.R. to -4C Sat. AM (you need about -6C at this time of year to get mixed sleet (or snow), so it’s getting close. We’re downwind of warm lake, which would inhibit any frozen precipitation, but would also add moisture and ramp up the rainfall totals a bit. The GFS-plot has highs Saturday in the upper 4os and Sunday in the low (maybe mid) 50s with a chance of light showers each day. The morning European has rain starting earlier Thurs. and gives G.R. 0.30″ Thurs., 0.64″ Thurs. night, 0.51″ Fri. AM, 0.17″ Fri. night and 0.03″ Sat. with a chance of more showers on Sunday. In any case, keep the umbrella handy.
Tue. early AM – The last of the showers are exiting Michigan into Ohio. We’ll stay mostly cloudy today with afternoon temps. about 20 deg. cooler than yesterday in inland areas. Most, if not all of the day will be dry. Weds. (I hope) we become partly cloudy and we’ll be a few degrees warmer. Weds. will be dry. Rain arrives again by Thursday evening and the models are printing out a lot of rain (and maybe a t-storm as a sharp cold front arrives. In fact, the European model has a total of 2″ of rain for G.R. from Thurs. thru Monday. The GFS-plot has 1.25″. The NAM (car) has 0.34″ Thurs. night and that’s as far out as the model goes. The NAM has highs of 60, 65 and 76 for Tue. thru Thurs. for G.R. The GFS-plot has 60, 69, 73. The Euro. takes our 850 temp. to -3C Sat. – not cold enough for snow in early Oct., but cold enough for some chilly showers. Change is in the air.
Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar. See the Slight Risk Area in a thread below this one for today/tonight. Storm Total Rainfall will show the heaviest rain and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.
Rainfall Fri. Night: 1.33 Ojibway (Isle Royale) and 0.81 at E. Jordan. Extreme rainfall rates/amounts reported in West Texas – 8.96″ in ~3 hrs – with flash flooding. The rate of sea ice expansion in the S Hemisphere is incredible. A new record expanse of ice and not by a little…by a LOT.
Lower Michigan is now in the General Thunderstorm Outlook for this evening/early tonight. A band of showers (maybe an isolated t-shower) will move from NW to SE across the area this evening. Rainfall will be light (less than 1/4″), but if you’re going out this evening, plan on an hour or two of showers. This is with a cool front that will bring cooler air for tomorrow and Weds. The last five days have been 5 degrees warmer than average, with an average wind of 3.4 mph and 94% of possible sunshine (includes the sun dimly shining thru high clouds). The morning run of the NAM (car.) has high temps. in the upper 50s tomorrow with more cloud cover. It has more cloud cover with highs in the mid 60s on Weds. and one more warm day on Thursday (high 77) before a stronger cold front brings rain and colder temperatures for Friday and the weekend. We may see daytime temps. only in the mid 50s over the weekend. Pic. on the right is the Muskegon GLERL cam. (from NOAA Coastwatch) at midday. I’ve notice a lot of boats (many people fishing) on our skycams of late.
(This is a file pic. from a govt. website, not related to the story that follows) Two beautiful sunny, warm, early-fall days over the weekend – what to do? I could go walk around Art Prize and actually see the art (while spending most of the time talking with people, mostly about what’s going to happen this winter). I could stand by our Art Prize studios and pass out Bill Steffen mustaches (I have a couple thousand to give out), a golden marketing opportunity and I like talking to the general public…but Art Prize goes on another week and a half and this weather won’t. So…after the yardwork I went kayaking…Saturday PM by myself and Sunday with my wife. I/we launched from the same place both times because it was closest – the boat launch on West River Drive at the mouth of the Rogue River. It was calm and beautiful with the colors just starting to turn. I saw great blue herons, a couple kinds of ducks, geese, lots of turtles and several huge fish (catfish?) that came up out of the water ahead of us. Today, I saw either a beaver or a muskrat or ?. It looked like a beaver, but I didn’t think one would be there on the Grand River. It was about the size of a muskrat, but it had a bigger and wider tail than I remember a muskrat having. You could see where some animal had brought clams out of the water and the clam shells were up on the bank.
Well, we’re paddling back along the east side of the river, about 1/2 mile upstream from the Northland Bridge and my wife says “Hey, that rock over there at the edge of the water looks like a skull”. I was closer, but I didn’t have my glasses on (I see pretty well without them, especially in the distance and I don’t want to lose them, so I often paddle without them…and I don’t kayak with my phone, so no pic.). I didn’t think it was a skull at first…but, as I got closer, it did look like a skull. Only the back was showing…it was face down. I cautiously took my paddle and slowly turned it around…YIKES, it is a skull!! Where the eyes and nose were, it was black (could have filled in with dirt). I’m thinking…naw, can’t possibly be. My wife stays at a distance. However, she said she’s 100% sure it’s not actually a real human skull. She’s taken anatomy and had experience with deceased human beings…so, I’ve got to go with her analysis. I wasn’t going to touch it, much less bring it back in the kayak. It was probably a Halloween leftover or maybe came off a boat with a pirate theme, perhaps…maybe…probably. I left it on the bank if anyone wants to go out there and check it out.
Pretty nice day today (Mon.) – any fog evaporates early – then clouds increase late as a cold front approaches. Showers possible with the front this evening/tonight (maybe late aftn. north of G.R.)…back into the 70s one last time today. Rainfall tonight from the models for G.R. – 0.11 NAM (car.) and GFS-plot, 0.31″ on the European. Cooler tomorrow with more clouds and temps. around 60 in the PM. Wednesday should be a nice day…Thursday a stronger cold front arrives with showers and even a possible t-storm. Pretty chilly behind it for Friday and the weekend. The European has PM temps. in the low-mid 50s Sat. and Sun.
I managed to get out to the Meijer Gardens to see the Art Prize entries there and walk around. If you take the trail along the pond, check out the swans that have taken up home a few feet from the boardwalk and check for turtles swimming in the shallow water just beyond the walk. Saturday, I walked to the store, finished cutting the back grass – pulled some weeds and some mushrooms (some big ones – nearly a foot high!), watered some plants, picked up sticks, picked some raspberries, watched a little of the Michigan St. and Michigan football games and took my kayak up the Grand River (for the first time this year) for a couple miles.
Model Update: Another great afternoon weatherwise…mostly sunny and warm. I’ll probably go to Art Prize and walk around. Monday will be another warm day, but clouds will increase in the PM. We’ll probably get a light shower (esp. I-96 north) Monday evening/night. All the models try to print out a light shower Monday Night with 0.13″ on the NAM (car.), 0.06″ on the GFS-plot and 0.13″ on the European. We’ll turn a little cooler for Tuesday – low-mid 60s during the PM on the GFS plot and Euro. The NAM hold clouds and cooler air with temps. in the mid 50s Tues. PM. We’ll side with the milder number right now. Wednesday back to 70 on the GFS, cooler on the NAM…a stronger cold front comes thru late Thursday and that one will have some moisture with it. The GFS-plot has 0.87″” total rainfall for G.R. from Weds. PM to Sat. PM. The European has 0.49″ mainly Thurs. night. The cold air coming in late this week will be a significant change. The GFS-plot would keep temps. in the upper 40s most of next Saturday. The European has our 850 mb temp. (about a mile above ground) down to 32F. The GFS plot has the 850 mb temp. down to 27F…pretty cool air and quite a change from this weekend. It gives us temps. in the mid 50s next Saturday. We’ll see cloudier weather from Thurs. PM into next weekend.
The death toll from the Japanese Volcano is now estimated to be 32 with over 200 injured. Phoenix AZ has had 5.05″ of rain this month – 2nd wettest Sept. ever. Here’s rainfall over the past 90 days for the U.S. It shows ample rain in almost all areas east of the Rockies, also much of Arizona and Utah. A good section of California has not seen measurable rain in the last 3 months. However, snow fell Saturday in the Sierra Nevada Moutains. Overall, a great year for U.S. agriculture. The average temperature for the Lower 48 states (taken every hour) did not make 90 degrees at any time in 2014 – unusual.
This is the 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for Oct. 4 -10. While we stay on the warm side thru the first couple days of Oct. – cooler air will move into the Great Lakes area after that. You can see the higher probabilities of cooler than average temperatures in the blue color from the Plains east to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Both the GFS and the European develop a trough over the Great Lakes. Look at the Arctic Oscillation going negative after 10/1. The Antarctic Oscillation has been quite negative for a month and that looks to go positive as we head into Oct. Arctic sea ice extent has “hit bottom” and is now increasing. Note the very significant growth of Arctic sea ice in the last two years. In the Antarctic, a new record maximum ice extent has been reached this month.
Mt. Ontake in central Japan erupted Saturday at 11:53 am local time. A hiker on Mt. Ontake tweeted this photo one minute before the eruption, and hasn’t tweeted since. Some 240+ hikers were on the mountain when the eruption occurred. At least one death and 30 injuries have been reported with another 31 still missing and presumed dead. Check out the pics. and video of the eruption here.
From Wikipedia: “Mount Ontake (also referred to as Mount Kiso Ontake) is the second highest volcano in Japan at 3,067 m (10,062 ft) located around 100 km (62 mi) northeast of Nagoya. It is on the borders of Kiso and Ōtaki, Nagano Prefecture, and Gero, Gifu Prefecture. Thought to be inactive until 1979, it underwent a series of eruptions over the following year The volcano has five crater lakes, with Ni no Ike at 2,905 m (9,531 ft) being the highest mountain lake in Japan. (click on the pics. to enlarge – from Wikipedia – pic. on right is the mountain with snow on top in spring).
General zonal upper level flow and lots of relatively dry and warm air will mean great weather for sporting events across most of the U.S. this weekend. The Tigers lost Friday evening (11-4) and the Royals won (first time in the playoffs for them since 1985!)…so the Tigers are now just one game up on the Royals with 2 games to go. The Tigers have an evening game today (Sat.) and a day game on Sunday. The Lions will be NYC to play the Jets at 1 pm on Sunday. The Packers and Bears also kick off at 1 pm. New Orleans is at Dallas in the evening NFL game on WOOD-TV/NBC.
Michigan State hosts Wyoming at Noon on ESPN2 (should be an easy win for the #9 Spartans). Michigan takes on Minnesota in the Big House at 3:30 pm. That game is on WOTV4 at 3:30 pm. WMU is at Virginia Tech at 12:30 pm on ESPN3. Central travels to Toledo for a 7 pm game, also on ESPN3. Notre Dame is at Syracuse and you can see that game on WOOD-TV at 8 pm. GVSU (0-3) hosts Lake Erie at 7 pm.
Model update: The overnight GFS-plot has high temperatures for Grand Rapids beginning today (Sat.) of 77, 77, 77, 76, 73, 78 and 67 on Friday. The next rain for us on the GFS-plot is Thursday evening/night. The European has a little stronger front for Monday night/Tuesday AM with a few light showers possible then and a little cooler air for Tuesday. The Euro. is pretty wet for next Friday as the cool air settles in. Next weekend (Oct. 4-5) won’t be nearly as warm as this weekend.
Friday evening – I’m off today. I worked last Sat. and Sun. Tonight I’m home with my wife, who is back from several days in Chicago helping daughter 1 paint her condo. I’m watching the Tiger game…they’ve got some work to do here, down 10-3 now. We went to the Meijer Gardens today…looked at the Art Prize entries there. We went through the Children’s area (every kid was happy), walked by the pond (saw many turtles, a great blue heron, ducks (two kinds), geese, small fish and swans that were sitting five feet from the boardwalk), went up to Lena’s farm, said “hi” to Fred, saw the Japanese Gardens – coming along nicely and had a sandwich, some fruit and chocolate non-fat milk from the cafeteria. I had a Dr. appt. today, keeping track of my heart. Don’t know if you can tell at all, but I’ve lost 15 pounds this summer. I was 185 on June 2, on July 18th I weighed 177 and today I was 170. I’ve brought a few suits out from the back of the closet that were retired early. I spend a lot of time sitting at the computer and munching. I am now walking 20-30 minutes a day…I think I’ve only missed 4 days since Memorial Day. Gayle’s done a great job of keeping me on a healthier diet. I’ve found out the hard part is that the biggest factor in weight control is what you eat and how much of it you eat. I’ve got more to do…I have to get a better treadmill, because I won’t be walking every day this winter. I could certainly work on my flabby muscles – I’ve got some tips from my fitness-expert daughter (#1).
Beautiful day today! The high temp. in G.R. was 77°. We made 80° in Kalamazoo and at the Regional Airport in Holland. The Muskegon Beach had a high of 72.7° and the Port Sheldon buoy, about 3 miles out in the lake, had a high of 66.6° at 11:50 am. These are sunset pictures from the Muskegon Glerl Camera (from NOAA Coastwatch). Click on the pics. to enlarge. You can see the thin crescent moon in the picture on the left.
Also, Wisconsin fall color report. Look at the hail that fell during a thunderstorm in Napa, California! Hurricane activity in the Atlantic peaks in September. However, this Sept. 8th lowest for hurricane activity in the Atlantic since 1968. In the Western Pacific, this Sept. could have the least hurricane (typhoon) activity since 1973. 8″ of snow at 8,500 ft. elevation on Mt. Lassen in CA. Enjoy the warm air while we’ve got it. Old Man Winter getting organized now in the Arctic! Record high temps. this Friday: Hilo HI 90, Miles City MT 97, Elko NV 90 (tied), Page AZ 94, Sheridan WY 92. Bismarck ND reached 93 today – warmer than any day in August. Rainfall: Naples FL 1.78″, Orlando FL 1.66″, 1.19″ Redding CA, 1.00″ Del Rio TX. Stormy conditions are generating 25-foot waves out at sea to the NW of Scotland. Pretty windy in the Scottish Mts. Gust to 98 mph on top of Cairngorm Summit. Could be some quick showers at the Ryder Cup (on WOOD-TV in the early AM). Lava flow in Iceland seen from space. King Fire in California seen from outer space. Is this really the “hottest July ever”? T-Storms prompt Flash Flood Warning for Las Vegas. Severe t-storms possible in AZ on Saturday.