Click on the images to enlarge. The first map (from the U.S. Natl. Ice Center) snows snow cover across North America Weds. Note the snow on the ground just north of Lake Superior! Here’s a picture of the snow at Geraldton, Ontario. The second map shows the temperature difference from average over the past 7 days. Grand Rapids averaged 9 degrees cooler than average from Sept. 11-17. You can see the unseasonably cold air from the Continental Divide across the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Much of the Southeast and West were warmer than average.
We continue to track the likelihood of showers and storms this weekend. Yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center said: “THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.” Overnight models for G.R: NAM (caribou) – high today 67, low Fri. AM 40, high Fri. 70, 0.17″ rain Fri. night (after football), high of 79 on Sat. with 0.09″ rain late Sat. and 0.06″ Sat. night. The GFS plot has highs of 66 today, 70 Fri., and 77 on Sat. The GFS-plot has no rain Fri. night and a healthier 0.72″ Saturday night. The NAM MOS has a 50% chc. of rain Fri. night for G.R. and a 75% chc. on Saturday…the GFS MOS has 27% Fri. night and 47% Saturday (with a high of 80 for G.R.). Waiting on the European.
Edouard has dissipated out in the central Atlantic. It moveed east into cooler water toward the Azores. We are past the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (Sept. 10) with relatively little damage from storms in Central and North America.
Severe T-Storms hit the San Diego, CA area yesterday, downing trees (one fell on a school bus) and power lines and producing heavy rain and local flooding. Strong winds flipped planes at Montgomery Field, where 1.07″ of rain fell in less than an hour and the dewpoint soared to 73°. Lightning hit a couple of palm trees, setting them on fire. Residents were putting out the flames with fire extinguishers and garden hoses. Here’s a list of damage reports from SW California…links to more video and pictures here and here. Even one bolt of lightning is exciting in San Diego! Wildomar reported 1.89″ of rain and Anza had 1.44″. Downsloping east winds sent the desert heat to the ocean shore where Los Angeles hit 103° and Riverside soared to a blistering 111°.
This pretty picture taken shortly after sunset Monday is from the Muskegon GLERL camera (from NOAA Coastwatch).
The Tues. AM run of the European gives G.R. a chance of showers and storms from Friday evening thru Sunday AM with 0.89″ total, much of it coming during the day on Saturday. The GFSX is a little slower and it gives G.R. a high of 80 on Saturday. The last 7 days have been chilly-cold for much of N. America.
Click on the pictures to enlarge. These pictures of waterspouts over Lake Michigan are from Ryan Tevelde (left), who was out fishing…Michelle Gibson (center picture) near S. Haven and Joanne Stewart (picture on the right). The waterspout (pictured on the left and right) on Lake Michigan just west of Holland, Michigan was around 6 pm. We had scattered showers in the area (no thunder). If you watched me between 5 pm and 6 pm – I tracked this particular cell – showing a small area of little yellow (moderate rain) on the radar. I noted that while the rest of the showers and the general rain area were moving west to east – this particular cell was moving NW to SE. If anyone else got a pic. of the waterspout, we’d like to see your pic. You can email it to email@example.com or bill.steffen@woodtv. com or like Joanne – you can use ReportIt at www.woodtv.com. Thanks, Joanne, Michelle and Ryan.
6:55 PM – Light rain off and on for several more hours. The rain will be mainly east of US 127 by midnight. We may see some patchy fog develop after midnight. The sun will be back tomorrow. There may be some showers passing across the U.P. and northern Lower Michigan midweek, but Southern Michigan may stay dry until Saturday night. The average high temperature is 74 for mid-September. Over the past 5 days, we’ve had highs of 60-59-61-64-63…including 2 days in a row with a general south wind.
Also, while a cool trough sits over much of the Lower 48 states, a strong ridge over Alaska pushed the Sunday pm temperature to 78° in Fairbanks!
Keep the umbrella handy today. Showers are likely. . The NAM (car.) would hold the rain off for much of the area for the morning commute, but rain should develop in most areas by midday. It might take a little longer for the rain to start SE of Kent Co. The Sundasy run of the NAM (car.) gives G.R. 0.35″ of rain..and an average of about 1/4″ to the area. The GFS-plot has a weaker (prob. too weak) 0.05″ for G.R. (but 0.57″ for Ludington). The GFS-plot also has another 0.78″ from Friday night into early next Sunday. The models have highs in the low-mid 60s today with the GFS gradually warming us up to the low 70s by next weekend. The European model has 0.20″ for G.R. on Monday and another 0.58″ from Friday night to Saturday night (Sunday would be the brighter half of next weekend). The European would take us back to 70 degrees Thurs. PM. (picture by Michelle Olin).
And (from Chicago NWS and John Gehr): The recent streak on September 11-13 of days with highs in the 50s in Chicago was the earliest streak of three consecutive days or more with highs less than 60 degrees on record. Records in Chicago go back to 1871. Overall…it was only the 23rd time such a streak has occurred in the month of September. The longest streak was 6 consecutive days back in 1875 from 9/17 until 9/22. September 11: 56° new record low for the date. Previous: 61° in 1940 September 12: 55° September 13: 59°
Click the graphic to enlarge. It’s a little early for this. The National Weather Service has issued a Frost Advisory for Mason, Lake, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Osceola and Clare Counties. Skies will be mostly clear tonight. Urban areas will dip to the upper 30s to near 40, while cold spots, mainly to the north of Kent County will see temperatures down to the low 30s with scattered frost. We’ll also have patchy fog during the early morning. At midnight, it’s already down to 33 at Cadillac and Houghton Lake and 37 at Ludington. The skies are mostly clear, but (as I write this) no northern lights (aurora). It’ll be mostly sunny Sunday pm with a period of light rain on Monday. (image from the National Weather Service).
The overnight run of the NAM (Caribou) gives G.R. an early morning low this Sunday of 36° and a high this afternoon of 62°. Monday morning’s low is 42° with a high of 63°. The NAM gives G.R. 0.09″ of rain. Tuesday’s high and low on the NAM for G.R. is 40° and 64°.
McAllen, Texas has received 4.33″ of rain since Friday morning, more rain than they received from June through August!