Weather

How Cold Did You Get?

February 27th, 2015 at 4:12 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

thermometer wivb  Feb 2015 coldest Feb.Graphic from G.R. NWS – this will be the coldest Feb. ever and the 4th coldest month ever in G.R.   I left the station around 3:10 am and it was 1 above on my car thermometer.  It was clear and calm.  It stayed at +1 as I drove thru downtown and out on US 131.  It was still +1 when I crossed the Ann St. Bridge.  Once I got past the bridge, there’s a straight-away that’s low down by the river, and the thermometer dropped to -7.  I then exited at Alpine and the thermometer rose back to 0 at the entrance to the mall.  It was back to -2 when I got home.  That’s pretty typical of calm, clear nights, where the cold air settles into low spots.    You can check the Michigan hourly temperatures here.   Another cold shot for Weds./Thurs. of next weekCFSv2 still shows general cold pattern thru March.    Temperatures were below zero this morning in at least 20 states!

Low temps. this morning:  -33 Rudyard (coldest in the U.S.), -32 Leota, -29 Baldwin, -28 Pellston, -25 Cadillac & Lake City, -24 Gaylord, -22 Reed City, -21 Houghton Lake, -20 Marshall, -19, Big Rapids, Alpena, -18 Traverse City, -17 Eaton Rapids & Albion, -16 Charlotte, Belding & Ceresco, -15 Jackson, Hastings, -14 Alma, Mt. Pleasant, Coldwater, W. Olive and Twin Lake, -13 Hudsonville, Mendon and Lawrence, -12 Fremont, -11 Grand Rapids (missed record low by 1 deg.), Hart and Allendale, -10 Hopkins, Bloomingdale & Clarksville, -9 Ionia, Grandville, Sturgis and Manistee, -8 Grand Haven and Hartford, -7 Benton Harbor, Watervliet, Lawton and East G.R., -6 Kent City, +1 Fennville.    Beach temps. this AM:  -3.5 Muskegon, +2.8 Milwaukee, +6.0 Chicago.

Also:  New monthly February Snowfall Record for Denver as total is now up to 22.2″; old record: 22.1″, set in 1912.  Snow in IrelandLight Pillars in NW Ohio.   First llamas..now thisPostcard pretty.   Snowiest calendar day ever in Huntsville AL, 8.1″ on 2/25.   Look at the snow in Blount Springs ALCullman AL looks like Marquette.  Weiss Lake AL.   American Meteorological Society responds to Government global warming witchhunt.


MODIS satellite pictures

February 27th, 2015 at 1:42 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

modis lake michiganModis Lake Superior  modis lake huron These are MODIS satellite pics (from NOAA Coastwatch) of Lake Michigan, Superior and Huron from Thursday PM. You can see a band of lake-effect snow coming down Lake Michigan. That band produced up to 8″ of snow in Chicago and 6″ in Milwaukee. There is still quite a bit of open water on Lake Michigan, but Huron and Superior are iced up enough to end the threat of lake-effect snow. You’d still get a small amount of warming (maybe 2-3 degrees) with the air moving across those lakes. That band of snow over Lake Michigan has been coming into Berrien Co. As the wind turns west and then southwest, the band will come onshore and dissipate. A dusting of snow is possible near the lake. Most of the day should be partly sunny and cold.

Great Lakes iceTotal – 84.1%, Superior – 94.9% , Michigan 58.9% , Huron 95.2% , Erie 95.6%Ontario 53.6%, (links will update automatically with fresh numbers).  This is the first time since the late 70s that we have had two consecutive years with Great Lakes ice reaching 80%. The strong winds we had on Tuesday didn’t break up much ice.   Here’s Great Lakes water temperature over the past 5 years.

Great Lakes water levels:  Lake Michigan/Huron is down one inch in the past month (precipitation is for the most part sitting on the ground and not running off into the rivers with the cold temperatures), up 21″ in the last year and it’s now 8″ higher than average for late Feb.  The level of Lake Superior is down 2″ in the last month, up 8″ in the last year and 7″ above the long-term average.  Lake St. Clair is down 3″ in the last month, down 1 inch in the past year and 3″ below the century average.  Lake Erie is down 4″ in the last month, up one inch in the last year and exactly at the long-term average.  Lake Ontario is down 5″ in the last month (open water for decent evaporation and little runoff coming into the lake with the cold temperatures), down 6″ in the last year and 6″ below the century average.  The buildup of ice in the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers has caused the water level of Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie to drop in the last few weeks.   The outflow on the St. Marys, the St. Clair, the Detroit and the Niagara Rivers are all expected to be above average in March.

Also:  Lake Superior ice caves are open to the publicSuper-Mackinac yacht race scheduled for July 11 will cover 568 milesConfederate treasure in Lake MichiganCruise ship coming to the Great Lakes this summer.


Friday Morning

February 26th, 2015 at 3:33 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Friday AM – It’s mostly clear-partly cloudy and cold inland.  There’s a band of lake-effect snow over Lake Michigan.  That band produced up to 8″ of snow in Chicago and 6″ in Milwaukee.  It shows there is still a good amount of open water.  That band will migrate to the east and may bring a little light snow to western Oceana, western Mason and Berrien Counties.  It’s possible that there could be a period of morning flurries tomorrow as the wind goes west off the lake, but they would be light.  Dry Saturday, snow on Sunday (1-4″ – heaviest south), dry and calm Monday, a mix changes to all rain on Tuesday as we briefly get to 40 deg.  Then cold again next Weds./Thurs.

More Arctic air coming down for the next several days to close out the coldest February ever in G.R. (and possibly Michigan).  16 of 25 days this month have been 10 degrees or more colder than average.  Only 3 of 28 days will end up warmer than average.  We’ve had only one night when the temperature stayed above 20 deg. and we’ll go over 2 months with only one day reaching 40.  The average high temperatures have now reached the upper 30s.

Overnight model data:  Highs/lows starting with this aftn. off the NAM (car.):  11/-9/17/-3/18.  For the GFS (car):  7/-21/14/0  The GFS plot has 8/-18/2/11 and a high of 25 on Sun.  The European model temps. for G.R. are 13/-17/16/-3/21 (I’d err on the high side with temps.).  The European model would have about 3″ of snow for G.R. on Sunday (0.25″ precipitation) and snow to freezing rain and maybe back to snow or flurries on Tues./Tues. night.  We could see some tough travel Tuesday (0.56″ precip. on that model).  On the Euro., the 4th is the warmest day of the next 10 with a high around 35.  So, we gotta hope we can change the Tues. storm to something other than freezing rain.  The GFS plot has upper 30s on 3/10 and low-mi 40s on the 13th.   No sign of spring in the first week of March.

Also:  Southern storm:  It’s dangerous for reporters to do “stand-ups” on the edge of a busy highway!   As I write this more than 111,000 customers without power in N.C. alone, 27,500 in AL.  9″ snow Townsend TN.  8″ snow Roxburo NC,  12.5″ snow in Guin AL.    Building igloos in Alabama!  There was a tornado watch for N. Florida Weds. PM – about 25 wind damage reports, no tornadoes as I write this.  The 51-day no-SPC-watch span is 6th longest since 1975. Last span longer was 54-days in late ’86!  No severe weather because it’s been so cold.  Widespread mountain snows coming in the Western U.S.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.


Weds. night

February 25th, 2015 at 7:21 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Weds. evening – I’ll put radar back up top with a little light snow coming thru here overnight.  Most areas get a dusting to an inch.  Not much, but enough for a few slick spots after midnight into the morning rush hour.  The snow has not been able to make much progress into the drier air over W. Michigan.   Once this gets by, there could be a few flurries near the lake, but for the most part, three dry and cold days from Thursday to Saturday.  We’ll get snow Sunday and snow or a mix on Tuesday.   The average high is 37 now and that reaches 40 on 3/5, so even if the cold pattern continues, the averages will start to pull us up in early March.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.


Arctic Air Rest of the Week

February 25th, 2015 at 4:22 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

814temp.new   This is the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for March 4 – 10.  Click the pic. to enlarge.  Note that most of the country is blue, which means a higher probability of cooler than average conditions. Also note that the greatest chance of cooler than average temperatures, signified by the “B” is right over Southwest Michigan (and Northern Indiana).  The PNA (Pacific North American Pattern) is going negative.  It’s forecast to have the lowest value of the winter on 3/1.  This usually means a trough in the West.  That would help to build an upper level ridge in the Southeast – hence the warm pattern for Florida (still time to plan your early March vacation!).  Showers are forecast over the weekend over Northern and Central California.

Model data from last night:  First, lighter winds.  The NAM has nothing greater than a 10 mph wind for the next 3 days, so no drifting.  The NAM has highs/lows for G.R. starting today at 15/1/7/-5/12.  The GFS has 16/5/12/-3/11.  The NAM mos has 16/2/9/-9/15.  The GFS plot has 12/7/2/15/-20!?/10.  The GFS plot would give us 0.15″ precipitation Sun./Sun. night – a couple inches of snow.  Then it has 0.46″ for Tuesday, which would be a mix, probably snow to freezing rain to rain (max. 36 degrees) then back to snow before it ends.   The European has 0.25″ of precipitation Sat. night thru Sun. night – about 3-3 1/2″ of snow.  The Tues. event looks nasty on the European with the possibility of not only mixed precipitation, but a significant period of freezing rain Tues. night that could give us some nasty travel and a lot of closings on Weds. (4th).  That’s too far out to get too excited about, but you ought to make a note to check with later forecasts on that one.  The European’s warmest is low (to maybe mid) 30s next Weds. morning…nothing even up to average thru March 7.

Also:  Happy Birthday to Daughter #1 today!   Boston went over 100″ season snowfall last night…2nd snowiest winter ever and plenty of time to get to #1, that’s 107.6″ in 1995-96.  Wow!  Look at the size of the waves in Spain!  and hereThere’s a car in thereWhen does the coolest 91-day period end in the U.S.  Houghton Lake has been below zero 14 days this month.  Cleveland is 15 deg. cooler than average this month.  Decent snowstorm for MS/AL/GA.  Here’s a wider view of the Southern snowstormAtlanta Schools closed today.   Wow, look at this picture with the Northern Lights, a lenticular cloud and the reddish glow of a volcano.  Snow in Tennessee.  State of Emergency in AL for 3-6″ of snow.  Flying over frozen Lake Huron.   Yesterday was the first day since Jan 17th that Syracuse did not receive at least a trace of snowfall.  Daily record for Great Lakes ice cover40 record low temps. across the East Tues. AM – 27 Monday AMNational Guard response to Moore, Oklahoma tornado.


Snow, Wind and Cold Today

February 24th, 2015 at 3:01 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  The Winter Weather Advisory ended.  Temperatures rose into the upper 20s to even low 30s during the evening, but they have crashed as the Arctic front came thru.  It’s a cold start to Wednesday.

1:35 pm Tues. from the Michigan St. Police regarding Mac. Bridge Accident in the snow and wind:  “Problem started around 930 this morning when a husband and wife from Sault Ste. Marie were traveling southbound—about to enter bridge—when wife decides she can’t drive over the bridge. Tries switching seats with husband. As husband walks around the car to get into driver’s side, he is hit from behind by another car. That started a chain reaction causing 5 other crashes.

Husband is “stable” and is at a local hospital.  No other serious injuries.  While responding, an MSP trooper’s car slammed into a semi, destroying the cruiser but Trooper is fine.  Accident cleared about 1130, but bridge remains closed due to wind…police are hoping to open it up soon.”

Also: Check out the European model for 3/5.  That would make for an interesting storm!  You can display your knowledge of Moroccan weather at the water cooler with this tidbit:  Since Nov 1, 2014, Tangier, Morocco has received 18.23″ of rain, 1317% of what they normally see during that time period.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.


Great Lakes Satellite Pics.

February 24th, 2015 at 2:51 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

modis lake michigan  modis lake ontario   Here’s a couple of the MODIS pics. from Monday PM.  Click to enlarge.  These are the only two Great Lakes that still have a significant amount of open water.  There’s enough open water on these two lakes to produce and enhance lake-effect clouds and snow.  The other three lakes (Huron, Erie and Superior), while not completely frozen solid – are close enough to have little effect other than maybe warming the air a couple degrees as the air passes over them.  Again, note that the two deep Finger Lakes south of Lake Ontario are open water.  Most of Erie has solid enough ice for snow to accumulate on top of the ice (note the bright white color.  It’ll be interesting to  see if the wind today breaks up any of the ice.  This morning the Great Lakes as a whole are 85.6% ice covered.  Note a relatively small amount of the Great Lakes is “100% ice-covered”.   The ice cutters are still working and wind can push the ice away from the windward shore.  Max ice will likely come in early March.


Winter Weather Advisory

February 23rd, 2015 at 4:08 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory   The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area.  This will be in effect from 4 am until 7 pm tomorrow (Tue.).  It’s for some snowfall (not much in most areas) along with strong winds (up to 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph) which will cause blowing and drifting snow.  We’ll also have wind chill factors around -15 Tuesday morning.  It may not be snowing at daybreak tomorrow, but by then there will be snow drifting across roads, especially in outlying areas.  Snow will develop during the morning from NW to SE across the area.   Snowfall accumulations may reach 4″ near Ludington, tapering off to less than an inch southeast of Kent County, where drifting snow and cold will be more of a problem than actual snowfall.  Watch me on the news tonight for more.   GRR NWS impact mapEuropean ensembles say no spring weather thru 3/10.

Also – Sunset in NYC, Rainbow over Hollywood CA, here’s Southern California radar, Snowstorm in Arkansas, 1-3″ snow forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth, today could be the 3rd coldest day of the winter in the Continental U.S.,


Great Lakes Ice Cover Now 17% Ahead of Last Year!

February 23rd, 2015 at 11:22 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

muskegon glerl   apn glerl  chicago glerl  Here’s current conditions, radar and a satellite loop.  Note the lake-effect clouds in W. Michigan.  Lakes Superior and Erie are now so frozen over that they don’t generate lake-effect clouds…you get a few off Lake Huron.  There is still a good bit of open water on Lake Ontario, and the two deepest Finger Lakes (Seneca – 618 feet deep and Cayuga – 435 feet deep) south of Lake Ontario still have open water.   Great Lakes ice cover now at 84.4%17% ahead of last year on this dateLake Michigan is at 56%, Superior 94.5%Huron 95.3%Erie 95.9% and Ontario 61.1%.   Here’s the NWS impact graphic for the wind and snow coming tomorrow.

Low temperatures last night were warmest near the lake an coolest northeast of G.R.  Note the very large spread (cloud cover and elevation make a big difference on calm, clear nights.  Some individual lows:  +5 Benton Harbor, Watervliet, +3 S. Haven, +2 Ludington, Fennville and Three Rivers, +1 Hartford, 0 Manistee, -1 Lawton, Muskegon Beach, Holland Beach, -2 Hart, Bloomingdale, -3 Muskegon Airport, Grand Haven, -4 Sturgis, -5 Lawrence, -6 Grandville and Allegan, -7 W. Olive, Beaver Is., -8 Battle Creek, Holland Airport, Mendon, -9 Kalamazoo, Jackson,  Coldwater, Hudsonville, Allendale, Sparta and Jenison, -10 Albion, Wayland, Grand Rapids (record low, old record -4 in 1989), -11 Ionia, -12 Kent City, Walker, Ceresco, -13 Lansing and Marshall, -14 Fremont, Jamestown, Clarksville, Delton, Grand Ledge, Caledonia, -15 Kalamazoo Nature Center and Freeport, -16 Mt. Pleasant, Hastings, Charlotte, -17 Alpena, Flint and Traverse City, Dowling and Newaygo, -18 Alma, Richland and Fremont, -19 VerSluis Lake in Plainfield Twp., Cedar Springs, Hesperia,  Entrican, Belding, S. Ste. Marie, -20 N. Rockford, Assyria, -23 Stanton, Houghton Lake, White Cloud, -24 Big Rapids, -26 Kalkaska, -27 Lake City, -28 Marquette (beat old record low by 13 degrees!), Pellston, –29 Cadillac,  -30 Baldwin, -32 Spincich Lake, Doe Lake, -34  Roscommon, Indian River, Amasa, Garden Corners, Baraga Plains, -35 Grayling, Leota (Clare Co.) and an MIDOT station E. of Cadillac had -35, and -36 at Champion.

Snow cover:  7″ Grand Rapids, 8″ Lansing, 9″ Hastings, 10″ Lake City, 11″ Cheboygan, 12″ Alpena, 13″ Kalamazoo and Houghton Lake, 15″ Gaylord, 16″ Traverse City, 19″ Muskegon, 24″ Benzonia, Ironwood, 25″ Newberry, 28″ Sault Ste. Marie, 32″ Marquette, 33″ Ishpeming, 36″ Munising and Atlantic Mine, 43″ Grand Marais.

Season snow:  32.3″ Lansing, 69.1″ Kalamazoo, 73.3″ Grand Rapids, 86.4″ Muskegon, S. Ste. Marie 146.4″, Marquette 151.6″.

Also: CFSv2 model says much of the Eastern U.S. will be colder than average in March.   Snow from NE Texas to N. GeorgiaFreezing rain across much of Texas today.   Saugatuck nominated by USA Today for Best Coastal Small Town in America.

The Wind Chill Advisory expires at noon.  I’m sure the NWS is thinking about a Winter Weather Advisory of some kind for the snow/wind tomorrow, especially north of Muskgon along the lakeshore.  The Mon. AM NAM (car.) gives G.R. a low of -1 this evening, a high of 25 at 11 pm tomorrow, then down to +3 early Weds. as the next batch of Arctic air moves in.  It gives G.R. a high/low of -9/+7 on Thurs.  Snowfall on the model is 1.5″ total for G.R., 1.3″ Kalamazoo, 1.3″ South Haven, 0.3″ Lansing, 1.6″ Big Rapids, 4.1″ Muskegon, 7.7″ Ludington.


Cold Monday/Cold Week

February 23rd, 2015 at 3:23 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

South Haven Ice Jerry Robinson 2 21 15 one    South Haven Ice Jerry Robinson 2 21 15 three  South Haven Ice Jerry Robinson 2 21 15 two  Here’s 3 pics. from Jerry Robinson from Otsego – quad-copter views of the ice around the South Haven Channel.  Click on the pictures to enlarge.   It’s a very cold Monday.  Here’s current temperatures, radar and closings. The Wind Chill Advisory lasts until noon.  There are Gale Warnings for Lake Michigan from 6 pm today to 3 am Weds. (though there’s so much ice now that waves won’t be much of a problem, but the wind will howl Tuesday).  At 2 am, it’s already down to -12 at Big Rapids, -20 at Cadillac and -27 at Grayling.   The NAM (car) only gives G.R. a high of 9 today, the GFS plot has 10.  The NAM (car) gives G.R. 2.9″ snow on Tues., the GFS plot just 1.5″.  Peak winds are up to 22 mph (steady, gusts would be higher) Tues. AM with a temp. of 11.  The GFS-plot has winds up to 27 mph.  Either way, it’s windy and very cold with double-digit below zero wind chills and blowing and drifting.  The NAM (car.) has a high of 25 Tues. even. then a high/low of 13/-1 on Weds. and -10 Thurs. AM.  The GFS plot has a high of 23 Tues. then -4 Weds. AM, a high low of 3/-12 on Thurs. and an insane low of -23 Fri. am.  It gives G.R. a high of only 11 next Sat., then up to 30 next Sunday.  It has about a 4-8″ snow on Sunday then cooler than average for the first 10 days of March.   The regular MOS numbers are for the NAM – highs of 12 today and 24 on Tues…and for the GFS highs of 7 today, 20 tomorrow and 12 on Weds. I’d go on the high side of the numb-brrrs (new word, just made it up).   The European has highs of 10, 25, 18, 13, 19 and lows of -8/-12/-6 for Thurs./Fri./Sat.  The only 32 in Tues. March 2 (barely).   Here’s NAM snowfall thru 84 hours and GFS snowfall thru 120 hours (starting yesterday evening at 7 pm).   Given forecast temperatures, we have a chance of beating 1978 for coldest Feb. EVER in G.R.

Also, over 1,000 flights cancelled today…most of them in N.Texas where they are getting freezing rain.  Freezing rain also falling in MS., N. AL.  Here’s the cold coming for Weds. to Fri. – very impressive shot of Arctic air.  Sunset in PeruRed sunset in NYCHeavy snow in SE OK.  Wow!  Check out the wave clouds over the Teton Mts. of WY.   Mount Washington, New Hampshire has received 232.7 inches of snowfall so far this season (119.5 inches since January).  Season snowfall for Boston at 99.9″ (2nd highest).  Magnitude 6.6 earthquake off the coast of Jalisco, Mexico.  Delaware Bay – frozen.