Weather

Tuesday PM

October 14th, 2014 at 2:13 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Early Weds. AM – Early morning rainfall has been a little heavier north of a line from Muskegon to Reed City.    Ludington reports 2.03″ and Manistee had 2.55″.  Six-hour rainfall totals ending at 2 am included 1.31″ at both Manitowoc and Oshkosh WI and 1.2″ at Pellston MI.  This continues to be a record year for adding water to the Great Lakes.  My observer in Oshtemo has had over 5″ of rain since Oct. 1.   At 2 am, G.R. was up to 71…winds were gusting to 25-30 mph.

Exciting weather in Australia.  It’s very late in the winter season to get snow like that in Australia.  3-6″ of rain in N. Alabama – flooding – this guy better back up!   Here’s lightning in the Middle East viewed from space.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar. See the Slight Risk Area in a thread below this one for today/tonight. Storm Total Rainfall will show the heaviest rain and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.


Hurricane Gonzalo and Trop. Storm Ana

October 14th, 2014 at 1:37 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]  5 Day Track for ANAHurricane Gonzalo produced wind gusts of 70-75 mph on the island of St. Maartin.  The storm will head to Bermuda, where they had a 96 mph gust from Hurricane Fay last week.  Here’s the latest discussion on Gonzalo.   We also have Tropical Storm Ana, which should come close to the Big Island of Hawaii.  While not a big hurricane, Ana should kick up some knarly surf and has the potential to produce some heavy rainfall.   Here’s the latest discussion on Ana.   The last image (of Ana) will enlarge if you click on it.  You can see the enlarged track of Gonzalo here.


Strong Earthquake

October 14th, 2014 at 12:40 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

e-quake    Magnitude-7.4 earthquake strikes 52 mi south of Chirilagua, El Salvador.   At this point, No widespread tsunami threat.   Un temblor de 7.4 grados de magnitud causa alarma en El Salvador.

Also, lightning in NW FloridaWe’ve had two storm fatalities, one in Arkansas and one in Alabama.  Over 40,000 were left without power in Alabama Monday evening, and 43,000 in Louisiana.  Over 250 storm reports on Monday.   7.95 in. of rain fell in 5 hrs. at Motoyama, Japan from Tropical Storm Vongfong.


MD out – Watch Unlikely

October 13th, 2014 at 8:39 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

md   There’s a mesoscale discussion for S. Michigan/N. Indiana for the possibility of gusty winds along the main line of showers (and a couple embedded t-storms).  A Weather Watch is unlikely.   The Storm Prediction Center says:  “SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE…THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.”    173 severe reports and counting today from Illinois to the Gulf of Mexico.   There was a tornado warning out for an area about 75 miles south of Chicago – no confirmed touchdown there.


Rain

October 13th, 2014 at 10:01 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

    It won’t be raining all the time, but we will have a few scattered showers for the rest of today and a chance of an isolated t-shower.  The rain will incease in intensity and coverage tonight into tomorrow (Tues.) when an inch or more of rain could fall. 

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar. See the Slight Risk Area in a thread below this one for today/tonight. Storm Total Rainfall will show the heaviest rain and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.


Severe Risk – Monday Evening Update – One Fatality

October 13th, 2014 at 1:48 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

0600 UTC Day 1 Outlook   0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Lower Michigan is in the General Thunderstorm Outlook for this Tues. PM.  We’ll continue to see periods of rain with an outside chance of a rumble of thunder.  There is a Slight  Risk of severe weather this PM/tonight and Tornado Watches are up for the  SE U.S.   Slight Risk Area for severe weather for this afternoon/tonight comes up into N. Indiana. The main threat would be isolated wind damage from Indiana to the Gulf of Mexico, but tornadoes are certainly possible. It’s a pretty large area. Here in S. Michigan, we are in the green General Thunderstorm Outlook. Keep in mind that in fall, showers/storms may contain little lightning and may still be able to push some significant wind gusts. The limiting factor in N. Indiana and Michigan is instability – which looks to be more favorable south of Indianapolis. SPC says: “NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE GULF COASTAL STATES. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.”   Here’s today’s severe weather reports (blue dots indicate wind damage or severe criteria winds).

Low temps. Sat. AM:  23 Baldwin, Leota…26 Kalamazoo Nature Center…27 Reed City…28 Big Rapids, Hart, Entrican, Belding…30 Jackson, Fremont, Hastings, Hudsonville…31 Lansing, Battle Creek, Benton Harbor, East G.R., Grandville, Hopkins…32 Muskegon…33 Grand Rapids, Holland, Allendale, S. Haven…34 Kalamazoo Airport, Three Rivers…35 Coldwater…36 Sturgis.

Happy Columbus Day in the U.S., Thanksgiving Day in Canada and first day without Art Prize in G.R.


Wet Week

October 12th, 2014 at 4:36 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

umbrella summer alex and maya   The morning run of the European model gives G.R. 3.23″ of rain in the next week:  0.17″ later Sun. night and Monday, 2.16″ Monday night/Tuesday, 0.24″ Tues. night/Weds., 0.33″ Weds. night/Thurs., 0.12″ Friday and 0.01″ next Saturday.   The GFS-plot isn’t as wet, with 1.09″ for G.R. from Sun. night thru Thurs. AM.  The Euro. has been consistently the wettest model.   I’m at Art Pirize…gave out a big box of Bill Steffen mustaches and I’m out of those now…so I think I’ll wander around and see more art.  Enjoy the sun this late PM – it’s going to be pretty cloudy and damp for the early part of the work week.


Sunday AM Frost – Tornado Warning in Seattle

October 11th, 2014 at 10:56 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory  We have a Freeze Warning for Lake, Newaygo, Montcalm, Mecosta, Osceola, Clare, Isabella and Gratiot Counties and a Frost Advisory for everyone else.  With clear skies and calm/light winds, we’ll have at least scattered frost, especially in areas north and northeast of G.R.   The first 11 days of October have been 2.5° cooler than average in G.R.  Sunday looks dry with showers and a chance of a t-shower on Monday and a wet pattern from Monday on.

Rare waterspout on Puget Sound (and a tornado warning).  According to the National Weather Service office in Seattle, it’s the first Tornado Warning issued for the greater Seattle Metro area since Dec. 12, 1969 — nearly 45 years!  It’s the first Tornado Warning issued anywhere covered by the Seattle office of the National Weather Service in 6,249 days – over 17 years!  Washington state averages 2 tornadoes a year and most all of them are small, weak and brief.   Fall color in the Smokey MtsCool spider web.  500,000 people evacuated in India ahead of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud.  Two fatalities there already.

Overnight model data:  Dry today (Sun.).  The NAM (car.) has 0.10″ of rain for G.R. Sun. night….most of Monday is dry with a high of 70..then 1.16″ mainly during the day Tues.  The GFS-plot has only 0.02″ Monday, then 0.84″ Mon. night, 0.04″ Tues., 0.05″ Weds., o.01″ Weds. night – dry Thurs. and Fri. and then 0.10 Sat. (and next weekend is pretty chilly).   The Euro. has 0.03″ for G.R. Sun. night, 0.11″ Monday, 0.50″ Mon. night, 0.88″ Tues., 0.07″ Tues. night. and 0.12″ on Weds. (quite the soaking).


Weekend

October 11th, 2014 at 2:43 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

muskegon glerl  Halloween_Sun_2014 Here’s a picture of the Muskegon Channel (from NOAA Coastwatch) around 3 pm Friday – showing at least 5 boats – and I bet there were be more than that today (Sat.).  Also, the active regions of the sun make it look like a scary pumpkin (from NASA).   This will be a beautiful, sunny day with highs in the mid (maybe even upper) 50s after a frosty start.  Sunday the NAM and GFS are dry…the European model gives G.R. 0.06″ of rain late in the day.  I favor day at this time, though clouds should push in from the southwest by late in the day.  The GFS ups the chance of rain to 75% for Monday and the NAM has 63% – I have out 80%.  Monday won’t be an all-day rain, but a few showers are likely.  It’ll get breezy on Monday (SE 12-20 mph in the PM).  The GFSX has the chance of rain for G.R. at 94% on Monday and 100% on Tuesday.  I’ve got 90% out for Tues.   Showers would end early Weds. and we’d be partly sunny Weds. PM and Thurs.   The European (consistently, I will add) develops a painfully slow moving low pressure system that produces a LOT of rain here (0.06″ late Sun., 0.08″ Sun. night, 0.04″ Mon., 1.00″ Mon. night, 1.36″ Tues., 0.06″ Tues. night, 0.26″ Weds., 0.16″ Weds. night., 0.03″ Thurs., 0.01″ Thurs. night and 0.02″ on Fri. – that’s 3.08″ there and that would not be good for farmers proceeding with the fall harvest.    So, let’s root for the GFS and hope it’s right in shoving this system east on Weds.   Skiing in ColoradoVolcano in Indonesia.

Also, we now have Tropical Storm Fay, which will pass east of Bermuda Saturday night.   Cyclone Hudhud is pushing into India with heavy, flooding rain and strong winds.   Typhoon Vongfong has peaked and will curve past Japan and off to the northeast.  Vongfong produced 5.59″ of rain in 7 hours at Kunigami on Okinawa.  Miyagijima, Okinawa had a peak gust of 108 mph.  Check out the view of Vongfong (about 14:45 into the video) from the ISS.    WOW!  Check out this t-storm in AZ.   1 injury & possible tornado damage 6 mi SSW of Bon Aqua, TN.  6.1 magnitude e-quake off Japan – no tsunami.  Baseball sized hail & 65 mph wind gusts near Jacksboro, TX.  Here’s a dusty tornado in NM.   Colorado Springs, CO, with 2.83″ of rain on Thursday, recorded all-time wettest Oct. day, 3.21″ in Kansas City.  Flooding in Seville, Spain (4 pics.).  Snowfall in SwedenPretty good storm coming into White Deer, TX.


Weekend Sports Thread

October 11th, 2014 at 2:09 am by under Bill's Blog, Sports, Weather

ferris state logo   Michigan is idle this week.  Michigan St.  is at Indiana.  That game is on ESPN at 3:30 pm.  Western plays at Bowling Green at 2 pm and Central hosts Ball St. at 3:30 pm.  The big game of the day is #5 Notre Dame at #2 Florida St.  You can see that game at 8 pm on WOTV4.  I’ll throw this in for Jack Doles…Nebraska at Northwestern at 7:30 pm on the Big Ten Network.  Ferris is at Ohio Dominican at 1 pm.  Let’s see if they can keep the streak going.  GVSU is up at Michigan Tech at 1 pm.   The Wings host Toronto at 7 pm.  The Lions host New Orleans at 1 pm on Sunday – that could be a good game.