New at Theaters (Friday): “The Box”, “A Christmas Carol” (3D & IMAX), “The Fourth Kind”, “Men Who Stare at Goats”, “More Than A Game” (limited), “Big Fan” (The Harbor Theater in Muskegon), “September Issue” (The Harbor Theater in Muskegon), “No Impact Man” (UICA in Grand Rapids), “The Way We Get By” (UICA in Grand Rapids)

Limited Release in Grand Rapids market: 
“More Than A Game” (Celebration! North),
“Big Fan” (The Harbor Theater in Muskegon),
“September Issue” (The Harbor Theater in Muskegon),
“No Impact Man” (UICA in Grand Rapids),
“The Way We Get By” (UICA in Grand Rapids)

Moving to Woodland Mall this week ($4.00 shows): “Whip It”, “Inglorious Basterds”, “Capitalism: A Love Story”, “Shorts”, “Sorority Row”

Best Bet(s): I have not seen any of the new movies in wide release YET…  but at least two of the four are getting moderate-to-average reviews (”A Christmas Carol” and “Men Who Stare at Goats”). “Big Fan” is getting some good response and it plays in Muskegon for a week and then will be at the UICA on 11/20.   And for $4.00, the filmed in Michigan comedy-drama “Whip It”  is more than worth the price of admission… so is “500 Days of Summer”… go see that if you haven’t already for gosh sakes!

 CLICK HERE TO FIND A MOVIE SHOWTIME

New this Week on DVD: “Aliens in the Attic”, “The Answer Man”, “Food, Inc.”, “G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra”, “I Love You Beth Cooper”,  “The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3″, “Command Performance”

Best Bets: The Waterfront Film Festival alum “The Answer Man” is a fun laugh out loud romantic comedy starring Michigan native Jeff Daniels… the thriller remake “The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3″ that I liked but many others weren’t impressed by… and if you were a fan of the 1980s “G.I. Joe” cartoons or like over-the-top action movies  “G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra” is for you (I liked it for what it was).   You’re on your own for: “Food, Inc.” an eye-opening documentary, “Aliens in the Attic” is a family adventure, fans of Hayden Pannetiere (”Heroes”) might like “I Love You Beth Cooper” which actually got some good reviews, and fans of Dolph Lundgren might consider “Command Performance”.

Next Week at Theaters: “2012″, “Pirate Radio”, “Act of God” (UICA in Grand Rapids), “World’s Greatest Dad” (The Harbor Theater in Muskegon)

11/25 – “A Serious Man” (limited)

Next Week on DVD: “Up”, “The Accidental Husband”, “The Merry Gentleman”, “Spread”, “The Ugly Truth”, “Watchmen” (Director’s cut)

MY REVIEWS OF OTHER MOVIES CURRENTLY PLAYING IN THEATERS OR AVAILABLE TO RENT/BUY: 

Playing at West Michigan movie theaters:
“500 Days of Summer” (9.5 / 10)
“District 9″ (9.0 / 10)
“The Hurt Locker” (8.9/ 10)
“Star Trek” (8.5 / 10)
“Paranormal Activity” (8.5 / 10)
“The Hangover” (8.0 / 10)
“Where The Wild Things Are” (7.9 / 10)
“Angels & Demons” (8.5 / 10) – on DVD 11/24
“Whip It” (7.9 / 10)
“Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs” (7.5 / 10)
“Couples Retreat” (7.5 / 10)
“Weather Girl” (7.5 / 10)
“Four Christmases”  (7.5 / 10) – on DVD 11/24
“Law Abiding Citizen” (7.5 / 10)
“The Ugly Truth” (7.5 / 10)
“This Is It” (7.0 / 10)
“Extract” (6.5 /10)
“Surrogates” (6.5 / 10)
“Love Happens” (7.0* review deferred to my wife)
“All About Steve” (5.5 / 10)

- – -

Available to rent or buy:
“Slumdog Millionaire” (9.5/ 10)
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (9.5 / 10)
“The Dark Knight” (9.5 / 10)
“Changeling”  (9.5 / 10)
“WALL-E” (9.0)
“Pride and Glory” (9.0 / 10)
“The Wrestler” (8.9 / 10)
“Righteous Kill” (8.9 / 10)
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”  (8.9 / 10)
“Eagle Eye” (8.5 / 10)
“Burn After Reading” (8.5 / 10)
“The Answer Man” (8.5 / 10)
“Wanted” (8.0 / 10)
“Defiance” (8.0 / 10)
“I Love You, Man” (8.0/ 10)
“The Proposal” (8.0 /10)
“State of Play” (8.0 / 10)
“The Visitor” (8.0 / 10)
“The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3″ (8.0/ 10)
“Australia”  (7.9 / 10)
“Frozen River” (7.9 / 10)
“Revolutionary Road” (7.9 / 10)
“New in Town” (7.9 / 10)
“Felon” (7.9 / 10)
“X-Men Origins: Wolverine” (7.5 / 10)
“Quantum of Solace”  (7.5 / 10)
“Taken” (7.5 / 10)
“G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra” (7.5 / 10)
“The Air I Breathe” 
“Hancock” 
“Fanboys” (8.5 for me, adjusted to 7.5 for most)
“Traitor” (7.5 / 10)
“The Bank Job” 
“He’s Just Not That Into You” (7.5 / 10)
“The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian”
“Role Models” (7.5 / 10)
“The Boy in the Striped Pajamas” (7.5 / 10 )
“Marley & Me” (7.5 / 10)
“Bride Wars” (7.5 / 10)
“The Women” (7.5 / 10)
“Rachel Getting Married” (7.0)
“Paul Blart: Mall Cop” (7.0 / 10)
“Get Smart” (7.0 / 10)
“The Happening” 
“Bedtime Stories” (7.0 / 10)
“Twilight”  (7.0 / 10)
“Knowing” (7.0 / 10)
“Watchmen” (7.0 / 10)
“Funny Games” 
“Nights in Rodanthe” (7.0 / 10)
“Hotel for Dogs” (7.0 / 10)
“Forgetting Sarah Marshall” (6.9 / 10)
“Appaloosa” (6.9 / 10)
“Surveillance” (6.9 / 10)
“Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” 
“The Invasion” 
“What Just Happened” (6.5 / 10)
“Hamlet 2″ 
“Lakeview Terrace” (6.5 / 10)
“Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”
“Imagine That” (6.5 / 10)
“Hellboy II: Golden Army” (6.5 / 10)
“Tropic Thunder” (6.5 /10)
“Good Luck Chuck”
“The Day the Earth Stood Still” (6.5 / 10)
“Ghosts of Girlfriends Past” (6.0 / 10)
“Journey to the Center of the Earth” 
“Star Wars: The Clone Wars” (6.0 / 10)
“Body of Lies” (6.0)
“Monsters Vs. Aliens” (6.0 / 10)
“Zach and Miri Make a Porno” (6.0 / 10)
“Noise” (6.0 / 10)
“The Chaos Experiment” (6.0 / 10)**
“Fragments” (5.5 / 10)
“Confessions of A Shopaholic” (5.5 / 10)
“My Life in Ruins” (5.5 / 10)
“Quarantine” (5.5 / 10)
“Charlie Wilson’s War” 
“Mad Money” 
“Year One” (4.0 / 10)
“Dance Flick” (2.0 / 10)

– 

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Rockford hosts Grand Haven in Division 1.  The Rams beat the Bucs 14-0 in week five.  The loss was the Bucs only one of the season. 

The Muskegon Big Reds have knocked Lowell out of the playoffs twice in the last three seasons.   The Big Reds look like they’re hitting their stride at just the right time, but will they be able to move the ball against a solid Lowell defense? 

Also from Division 2, Caledonia travels to Portage.  The Scots went to overtime to beat Portage Northern last week. 

In Division 3, East Grand Rapids quest for a four-peat goes through Byron Center.  The Pioneers have hardly been tested this season.  One wildcard in this game, former Caledonia head coach, Tom Burrill is on the Bulldogs staff.  He is one of the few coaches in the state to have pinned multiple losses on Peter Stuursma.  The big questions for Byron Center, can they handle the speed of East GR, and can they stop Kirk Spencer from making the big play?  Nobody has been able to do that yet.

We’ve got two marquee games in Division 4.  Holland Christian travels to West Catholic.  Hamilton heads to Three Rivers.

Muskegon Heights at Morley-Stanwood and Berrien Springs vs. Kelloggsville headline Division 5. 

The game of the week in Division 8 could very well be the championship game in that division.  Muskegon CC at Climax-Scotts.  Don’t be surprised if the winner of this game goes on to win a championship.

Friday on the Frenzy we’ll have hi lites from at least 10 second round playoff games.

That last sentence proved to be true. Only a monster thaw on the weekend after Christmas (the temperature hit 60° due to the “Cancun Connection”) prevented us from getting some “Blizzard of ‘78″ style snow piles that would have really added up because the temperature stayed below freezing for all but a few hours during January (which was nearly five degrees colder than average). Here’s the bulk of last year’s forecast which you can reread here:

“Having digested all of this and more, I think snowfall this winter (2008-09) over the area will be above normal, varying from 55-60 inches in Lansing area to 85 inches in Grand Rapids to 100 inches in the favorable lake-effect areas. Marquette in the Upper Peninsula should top 150” for the winter. I think it’ll be colder than average in December. Lake Michigan is a little warmer than average and the lake temperature will stop for a week or two around 39 degrees as the lake water “overturns”. This will set the stage for some significant lake-effect snow in late November into December. We have a 57% chance of a White Christmas in Grand Rapids. This year I think the chance of a White Christmas (snow on the ground) will be at least 75%. We will see a January thaw, but winter will drag on a little later into March, when temperatures may again be a little cooler than average. This will mean we’ll have to spend a fair amount of money on plowing, sanding and salting. That will be a concern as the winter drags on during these financially lean times. So, don’t be afraid to get the season ski pass, get the snowmobile or cross country skies ready or find the ice fishing equipment. Winter is definitely on the way! This pattern will mean only brief incursions of cool air to central and southern Florida, so if you want to escape the cold, that would be a nice place to be.”

Let’s see how I did:   I got the above normal snowfall right. I wasn’t quite high enough on the totals, but I don’t think I’d ever forecast +100″ in  a mid-fall forecast. We did get some heavy lake-effect snow from late November into early December. Holland had 67″ of snowfall before Christmas Eve (sometimes they don’t get that much in any entire winter), including over 3 feet of snow from Nov. 16 to Dec. 9. We did get the White Christmas. We didn’t get a January thaw, but we did get monster thaws on the weekend between Christmas and New Year’s and also on Feb. 10-11. So the idea of a thaw was correct, but I missed the timing. The first week of March was cold (as cold as 5 above), but the weather story in March was +70% sunshine. The weather turned chilly again in early April (just in time for spring break) with below average temps. from April 4-14.   BTW, Tampa FL. was 0.6° warmer than average for Dec. thru Feb.  The cold air never really got down to south Florida.

There is so much to study when making up a winter forecast. I look at the prevailing upper level winds, world sea-surface temperatures, the cold that builds up by mid-Autumn in the Arctic, sunspot cycles, the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations, 2009 Atlantic hurricane patterns (a very wimpy year for tropical storms), the number of 90-degree days we’ve had during the previous summer (7 in the last 2 summers combined, average is 9.5 for one summer), and the current state of La Nina/El Nino. We look back through our weather history to find correlations to the current conditions around the northern hemisphere and years when similar conditions were prevalent in the fall. Any forecast is a guess, an “educated guess”. The data base and the computer models aren’t good enough for near perfect forecast (won’t be in my lifetime), but long range forecasting has improved with new technology over the past 30 years, especially with weather satellites.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac made what I think is a pretty good prediction. Their forecast for the winter in our area is for warm weather for early November, very cold weather in December, a little warmer than average in January, near normal in February and a little colder than average in March. The Almanac is forecasting below normal precipitation for December to February and above normal in March. Keep in mind that we can have above normal snowfall and below normal precipitation at the same time (less rain/more fluffy snow when it’s cold).  Joe D’Aleo, a very respected long range forecaster, has worked with the Almanac this past year.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast is for near to above normal temperatures in Michigan and near to below normal precipitation.  NOTE:  You CAN have both below average precipitation AND above average snowfall (if more of the precipitation falls as snow instead of rain and/or if the snow is light and fluffy with less water content.  Local Grand Rapids NWS meteorologist Bill Marino usually issues a winter outlook and when he does, I’ll link to it here.

An interesting note…over the past 10 years, snowfall has trended upward in Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

First of all, we are in a weak/low moderate El Nino. We had La Nina conditions last winter and wound up with 107″ of snow in Grand Rapids, our 2nd highest total ever. The pattern went neutral this summer, and is now trending back toward La Nina, although it is now a weak La Nina. Last year was one of the snowiest (if not THE SNOWIEST) winter in North America. I don’t think we’ll have a repeat of that, but the pattern would suggest near to above normal snowfall for the Great Lakes.

We have been in a sunspot minimum in 2008. August was the first calendar month since 1913 without a single sunspot. History has shown a correlation between the number of sunspots and global temperature. While this is more of a consideration for long-term climate (decades), I note that the Sporer, Maunder and Dalton sunspot minimum periods coincided with a cooling of global temperature. The current sunspot minimum has been a little longer and stronger than expected and has been accompanied by a decrease in the solar wind.

Winter has come on strong in parts of the Arctic.  At Alert in northern Canada, the average temperature for October was two below zero.  There is already an extensive snow cover across much of Alaska and Canada.  Ice has already started to form in northern Hudson Bay (the last ice melted off on Sept. 6 – so the Bay was only ice-free for less than two months!).  Temperatures have crashed in Siberia.  Verkoyansk  has been running 11.5 degrees colder than average over the past 8 days with lows running from -30 to -40.  Snow has fallen over much of northern China and early snows resulted in the earliest start to the ski season in part of the Alps.

We have had a very weak severe weather season this year.  We’ve only had one tornado fatality in the U.S. since May 13th, and only 22 tornado fatalities for the year.  The hurricane season has also been weak over not only the Atlantic/Caribbean, but pretty much worldwide with the exception of the western Pacific.

I also checked many years when we had notable climate events, like the wet weather in October.  The wettest years in October have usually brought us above normal snowfall in the following winter.  We only four days this summer that reached 90 degrees (and only 6 in the last two summers combined – two years in a row without a 90-degree day in July).

I think the El Nino will produce above average cloud cover and precipitation across much of the southern U.S.  The storm track will be WSW to ENE and should bring more snow than last year to areas south of a line from Champaign Illinois to Fort Wayne, Indiana to Cleveland, Ohio.  There will likely be a couple of big snowstorms in the Appalachian Mountains and at least one of those storms should bring signfiicant snow to the big East Coast Cities (more snow there than last year).  I’ll add that El Nino years tend to favor getting a late winter tornado outbreak in Florida.

Having digested all of this and more, I think snowfall this winter over the area will be above average, but less than the totals we reached in 2007-8 and 2008-9.  Here’s the estimated winter snowfall for this year (first) compared to the winter snowfall for last year:   Grand Rapids – 83″ (104.9″), Muskegon – 110″ (148.2″), Holland (Tulip City) – 96″ (122.4″), Kalamazoo 77″ (103.9″), Battle Creek – 58″ (77.7″), Lansing 53″ (70.7″).  I think it’ll be warmer than average between now and about Nov. 20, with cold and snow moving in.  The Lake Michigan water temperature is still in the low 50s, still fairly mild.  The lake temperature will stop for a week or two around 39 degrees as the lake water “overturns”. This will set the stage for some significant lake-effect snow in very late November into the first three weeks of December.  This will likely be with northwest flow, bringing the most significant snow to the lakeshore counties, west of a line from Hesperia to Fruitport to Hopkins to Kalamazoo.  The period between Thanksgiving and New Years Day looks cold to me.  You might want to think about getting the Christmas lights up before it gets really cold.  We have a 57% chance of a White Christmas in Grand Rapids. Once again his year I think the chance of a White Christmas (snow on the ground) will be at least 75%. We will see a January thaw with the temperature gets into the 40s briefly, but I think overall this winter will be 1-2 degrees colder than average.  There is a better chance for a March snow event this year.  I’ll add that weak El Ninos usually bring a fairly sharp move to spring, featuring warm weather by May.

All this will mean we’ll have to spend a fair amount of money on plowing, sanding and salting. That will be a concern as the winter drags on during these financially lean times. So, don’t be afraid to get the season ski pass, get the snowmobile or cross country skies ready or find the ice fishing equipment. Winter is definitely on the way!

If you missed it back in September, the 70th Anniversary presentation of “The Wizard Of Oz”, is coming back to more than 300 movie theaters across the country on one night only November 17th.

The Wizard of Oz 70th Anniversary Encore Event will happen on Tuesday, November 17th at 6:30 p.m. in 324 movie theaters.   The remastered movie will be introduced with a taped interview from Robert Osborne, film historian and host of Turner Classic Movies.

In West Michigan, the movie will be at the following theaters, tickets are $10 and available at the box office:

West Columbia 7 - 2500 Columbia Ave W,  Battle Creek, MI, 49015

Holland 7 - 500 S Waverly Rd, Holland, MI, 49423
 
Kalamazoo 10 - 820 Maple Hill Dr, Kalamazoo, MI, 49009

Its also playing at 11 other theaters across Michigan, check theaters for ticket prices:

Quality 16 – Ann Arbor, MI, 48103

Canton Cinema – Canton, MI, 48187

Flint West Showcase Cinemas – Flint, MI, 48532

Jackson 10 – Jackson, MI, 49202

Lansing Mall Cinemas – Lansing, MI, 48917

AMC Livonia 20 – Livonia, MI, 48152

Oxford 7 – Oxford, MI, 48371

Krafft 8 – Port Huron, MI, 48060

Saginaw 8 / Quad – Saginaw, MI, 48604

AMC Forum 30 with IMAX – Sterling Heights, MI, 48314

Ann Arbor Showcase Cinemas – Ypsilanti, MI, 48197

Tickets for The Wizard of Oz 70th Anniversary Encore Event are also available online at FathomEvents.

For a complete list of theater locations across the country CLICK HERE.

– 

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Former Grand Rapids Mayor Lyman Parks dead at the age of 92.

I was a rookie reporter here at TV-8 when Lyman Parks was Mayor of Grand Rapids.  The fact that he was also a minister was not lost on me nor this community.  It’s interesting to note, nearly four decades later, we have another man of the cloth holding the same seat of power in Grand Rapids, George Heartwell.

I always thought Rev. Parks was a man for his time in this city.  Grand Rapids, like so many other urban areas in this nation, was emerging from the ravages of racism and riots.  Being black, but equally as important, being a holy man, Rev. Parks felt a calling to bridge the great divide that separated blacks from whites, the inner city from the suburbs, the have nots from the haves.

If you knew him, observed him from a distance, or watched him up close in action, you witnessed his dignity and pose.  Characteristic of a minister, there was a poeticism in the way he spoke and certainly a spirituality in his approach.

To me, he seemed like a man of conviction not confrontation… reconciliation not reparation.  He had a vision and a voice and he used them both to help begin the rebuilding of this city through brick and mortar as well as through human discourse and relationships.

The first black Mayor of Grand Rapids paid a visit to one of the wealthiest white men of Ada, Richard DeVos,  and that began a conversation and a relationship that led to a life-long renewal of a city. 

In the late 60’s and early 70’s, Rev. Lyman Parks shattered a myth, an erroneous perception of who a black man was and what he could accomplish.  In his high profile position as leader of Michigan’s second largest city, Mayor Parks could go where other blacks had no access and he could chisel cracks in the great divide.

May his memory be eternal.

Eventually, we brought in a 3rd weathercaster, Ted Gribas, who went on to teach at Forest Hills.  George Lessens came in (I believe) 1980.  You might remember Dave Whitford (still in G.R.) and Mark Massaro (in Cincinnati and out of broadcasting).  Back in 1974 we had reporters Alex Taylor, Sue (Bertke) Francis, Jim Riekse…Anne Doyle has done well for herself since leaving Grand Rapids.  The late George U. Lyons was the G.M. at the time.   We had full-time booth announcers (Dick Reid had “the voice”).

Thinking about it, I might be (or I might be close to) the longest on-air television talent in G.R. history (close to Dick Richards anyway?).  I’ve been on the air in G.R. longer than Craig James was (commercials don’t count).  I still hear Buck Matthews on Blue Lake Radio on rare occasion.  I think Juke Van Oss will keep the radio record for longevity forever.  He was on the air before I was born at WHTC in Holland.  Hey, leave a comment if you remember early broadcasting in G.R.  Let’s dust off a few memories……Bill S.