Early Weds. AM – Early morning rainfall has been a little heavier north of a line from Muskegon to Reed City. Ludington reports 2.03″ and Manistee had 2.55″. Six-hour rainfall totals ending at 2 am included 1.31″ at both Manitowoc and Oshkosh WI and 1.2″ at Pellston MI. This continues to be a record year for adding water to the Great Lakes. My observer in Oshtemo has had over 5″ of rain since Oct. 1. At 2 am, G.R. was up to 71…winds were gusting to 25-30 mph.
Hurricane Gonzalo produced wind gusts of 70-75 mph on the island of St. Maartin. The storm will head to Bermuda, where they had a 96 mph gust from Hurricane Fay last week. Here’s the latest discussion on Gonzalo. We also have Tropical Storm Ana, which should come close to the Big Island of Hawaii. While not a big hurricane, Ana should kick up some knarly surf and has the potential to produce some heavy rainfall. Here’s the latest discussion on Ana. The last image (of Ana) will enlarge if you click on it. You can see the enlarged track of Gonzalo here.
There’s a mesoscale discussion for S. Michigan/N. Indiana for the possibility of gusty winds along the main line of showers (and a couple embedded t-storms). A Weather Watch is unlikely. The Storm Prediction Center says: “SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE…THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.” 173 severe reports and counting today from Illinois to the Gulf of Mexico. There was a tornado warning out for an area about 75 miles south of Chicago – no confirmed touchdown there.
It won’t be raining all the time, but we will have a few scattered showers for the rest of today and a chance of an isolated t-shower. The rain will incease in intensity and coverage tonight into tomorrow (Tues.) when an inch or more of rain could fall.
Lower Michigan is in the General Thunderstorm Outlook for this Tues. PM. We’ll continue to see periods of rain with an outside chance of a rumble of thunder. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather this PM/tonight and Tornado Watches are up for the SE U.S. Slight Risk Area for severe weather for this afternoon/tonight comes up into N. Indiana. The main threat would be isolated wind damage from Indiana to the Gulf of Mexico, but tornadoes are certainly possible. It’s a pretty large area. Here in S. Michigan, we are in the green General Thunderstorm Outlook. Keep in mind that in fall, showers/storms may contain little lightning and may still be able to push some significant wind gusts. The limiting factor in N. Indiana and Michigan is instability – which looks to be more favorable south of Indianapolis. SPC says: “NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE GULF COASTAL STATES. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.” Here’s today’s severe weather reports (blue dots indicate wind damage or severe criteria winds).
Low temps. Sat. AM: 23 Baldwin, Leota…26 Kalamazoo Nature Center…27 Reed City…28 Big Rapids, Hart, Entrican, Belding…30 Jackson, Fremont, Hastings, Hudsonville…31 Lansing, Battle Creek, Benton Harbor, East G.R., Grandville, Hopkins…32 Muskegon…33 Grand Rapids, Holland, Allendale, S. Haven…34 Kalamazoo Airport, Three Rivers…35 Coldwater…36 Sturgis.
Happy Columbus Day in the U.S., Thanksgiving Day in Canada and first day without Art Prize in G.R.
The morning run of the European model gives G.R. 3.23″ of rain in the next week: 0.17″ later Sun. night and Monday, 2.16″ Monday night/Tuesday, 0.24″ Tues. night/Weds., 0.33″ Weds. night/Thurs., 0.12″ Friday and 0.01″ next Saturday. The GFS-plot isn’t as wet, with 1.09″ for G.R. from Sun. night thru Thurs. AM. The Euro. has been consistently the wettest model. I’m at Art Pirize…gave out a big box of Bill Steffen mustaches and I’m out of those now…so I think I’ll wander around and see more art. Enjoy the sun this late PM – it’s going to be pretty cloudy and damp for the early part of the work week.
We have a Freeze Warning for Lake, Newaygo, Montcalm, Mecosta, Osceola, Clare, Isabella and Gratiot Counties and a Frost Advisory for everyone else. With clear skies and calm/light winds, we’ll have at least scattered frost, especially in areas north and northeast of G.R. The first 11 days of October have been 2.5° cooler than average in G.R. Sunday looks dry with showers and a chance of a t-shower on Monday and a wet pattern from Monday on.
Rare waterspout on Puget Sound (and a tornado warning). According to the National Weather Service office in Seattle, it’s the first Tornado Warning issued for the greater Seattle Metro area since Dec. 12, 1969 — nearly 45 years! It’s the first Tornado Warning issued anywhere covered by the Seattle office of the National Weather Service in 6,249 days – over 17 years! Washington state averages 2 tornadoes a year and most all of them are small, weak and brief. Fall color in the Smokey Mts. Cool spider web. 500,000 people evacuated in India ahead of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud. Two fatalities there already.
Overnight model data: Dry today (Sun.). The NAM (car.) has 0.10″ of rain for G.R. Sun. night….most of Monday is dry with a high of 70..then 1.16″ mainly during the day Tues. The GFS-plot has only 0.02″ Monday, then 0.84″ Mon. night, 0.04″ Tues., 0.05″ Weds., o.01″ Weds. night – dry Thurs. and Fri. and then 0.10 Sat. (and next weekend is pretty chilly). The Euro. has 0.03″ for G.R. Sun. night, 0.11″ Monday, 0.50″ Mon. night, 0.88″ Tues., 0.07″ Tues. night. and 0.12″ on Weds. (quite the soaking).
Here’s a picture of the Muskegon Channel (from NOAA Coastwatch) around 3 pm Friday – showing at least 5 boats – and I bet there were be more than that today (Sat.). Also, the active regions of the sun make it look like a scary pumpkin (from NASA). This will be a beautiful, sunny day with highs in the mid (maybe even upper) 50s after a frosty start. Sunday the NAM and GFS are dry…the European model gives G.R. 0.06″ of rain late in the day. I favor day at this time, though clouds should push in from the southwest by late in the day. The GFS ups the chance of rain to 75% for Monday and the NAM has 63% – I have out 80%. Monday won’t be an all-day rain, but a few showers are likely. It’ll get breezy on Monday (SE 12-20 mph in the PM). The GFSX has the chance of rain for G.R. at 94% on Monday and 100% on Tuesday. I’ve got 90% out for Tues. Showers would end early Weds. and we’d be partly sunny Weds. PM and Thurs. The European (consistently, I will add) develops a painfully slow moving low pressure system that produces a LOT of rain here (0.06″ late Sun., 0.08″ Sun. night, 0.04″ Mon., 1.00″ Mon. night, 1.36″ Tues., 0.06″ Tues. night, 0.26″ Weds., 0.16″ Weds. night., 0.03″ Thurs., 0.01″ Thurs. night and 0.02″ on Fri. – that’s 3.08″ there and that would not be good for farmers proceeding with the fall harvest. So, let’s root for the GFS and hope it’s right in shoving this system east on Weds. Skiing in Colorado. Volcano in Indonesia.
Michigan is idle this week. Michigan St. is at Indiana. That game is on ESPN at 3:30 pm. Western plays at Bowling Green at 2 pm and Central hosts Ball St. at 3:30 pm. The big game of the day is #5 Notre Dame at #2 Florida St. You can see that game at 8 pm on WOTV4. I’ll throw this in for Jack Doles…Nebraska at Northwestern at 7:30 pm on the Big Ten Network. Ferris is at Ohio Dominican at 1 pm. Let’s see if they can keep the streak going. GVSU is up at Michigan Tech at 1 pm. The Wings host Toronto at 7 pm. The Lions host New Orleans at 1 pm on Sunday – that could be a good game.