February 2015

March 1st, 2015 at 4:43 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

great lakes ice cover   Feb. 2015 was the coldest February ever in G.R. with an average temperature of 13.3.  That’s a full degree colder than the previous coldest February, which was 14.3 in 1978, the year after the Blizzard of Jan. 26, 1978.  The average temperature for the month was 13.5 below average for G.R., 13.5 colder than average for Kalamazoo and a whopping 14.5 colder than average for Lansing.  This is only the 2nd time since 1978 that we did not reach 40 in G.R. in February.  In fact, we’ve only reached 40 once since 12/27!  We only got above 30 three times in February in G.R.  We dipped below zero 8 times in G.R. in February and 11 times in Lansing.  The average high/low for G.R. was 22.0/4.7.  We only had 3 days that got about 30 in G.R.  As can be the case in cold, winter months, we had both below average precipitation (1.17″ – 0.62″ below average) and above average snowfall (19.6″, which was 4.8″ above average).  Much of that snow came on Super Bowl Sunday (8.8″).  Snow cover varied from 4″ (early morning on the 1st) to 10″ in G.R., and we had at least a trace of snow on 22 of 28 days.  The fastest wind gust in G.R. was 45 mph on the 14th.  February is on average the month with the least precipitation.  We had 34% of possible sunshine, close to averge and an average humidity of 69%.  No thunderstorms with the cold air and only one day with fog.    NOAA: 2185 cold records broken or tied in past week1913 Low Min Records Broken & 272 tied in 7 days.

The graphic shows that Great Lakes ice cover is up to 88.5%, with the only significant open water on Lakes Michigan and Ontario.  Wind could break up some ice on Tues./Weds., but we have a decent shot at topping 90% in the next 10 days.    CONUS ended February -1.85°C below 30-yr average. Temps crashed after 16th.    YTD -0.86°C.    Almost every major city in Quebec experienced their coldest February since we have data (70 yrs of data).   Coldest Feb. (-14.7C) in Fredericton, NB, Canada since records started in 1913.  Only month colder was Jan., 1920.  Coldest Feb. ever in Labrador.

Also, coldest February ever in Alpena (6.6), Gaylord (3.2), Houghton Lake (5.8), Flint (2nd coldest month), Saginaw (3rd coldest month), Marquette (2.4 deg. – also coldest month ever!), Houghton MI, Rochester NY (and 4th snowiest Feb.). Cleveland (14.3 – also 2nd coldest month ever), Buffalo NY (10.9 – also coldest month ever in Buffalo) Syracuse NY (and coldest month ever), Chicago 14.6 (tied 1875), Redding PA, State College PA (17.1), Erie PA, Mansfield and Youngstown OH,  Portland ME (14.0 also coldest month ever!) Bangor ME (6.1 – broke old monthly record by 5.2!), Harrisburg PA (20.9).  2nd coldest Feb. in Detroit,  Baltimore MD (4th coldest month), Pittsburgh (4th coldest month ever), Rockford IL, Concord NH (12.2), Toledo OH and Albany NY (12.7).    3rd coldest February Traverse City (9.5), S. Ste. Marie (2.9), New York City (23.9) and Allentown PA (19.0).  Little Rock AR had snow on the ground for 10 days in Feb.  It was the snowiest Feb. ever in Boston (64.8″ – broke old record by 23.2″!), Providence RI (31.8″) and Denver CO (22.4″). That’s the most since 1936.  Ice-clogged Hoboken NJ ferry terminalSolid ice in the Potomoc River in D.C.   More than 1,400 flights cancelled at DC, Philadelphia and New York City-area airports due to snow.  Boston up to 102.3″ snow for the season…second place, they’ll probably reach #1.   Toronto – coldest Feb. since 1936 – they haven’t been above freezing for 36 days.   Heavy snow in Arizona.   Chesapeake Bay ice reaching historic maximum.   Some of the oldest weather records in the area are taken in Amherst, MA. Since 1836, this February was the coldest! Nearly 180 years.

Anniversary of the EF-4 tornado in Miller’s Ferry AL.  Heavy rain coming to the Ohio ValleyNorthern Lights last night in Alberta.   400 flights cancelled at DFW – freezing drizzle there.   Ice storm Branson MO.   Beautiful pic. of sun and snow from Alabama.  Shreveport, LA, saw more snow (4.1″) than Fairbanks, Alaska (4.0″) in February.   Volcano ash causes Alaska Airlines flight cancellations on Saturday.  Thundershower in San FranciscoTwo waterspouts SW of Los Angeles.  0.68″ rain at San Diego.


Sunday

March 1st, 2015 at 4:33 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Some scattered flurries possible, not much.  The Tuesday system will bring a mix of  precipitation with travel concerns Tuesday and Tuesday nightwhen temperatures again get well below freezing.  Keep in mind the ground is cold and even with temperatures a few degrees above freezing on Tues. we can still get icy roads, esp. gravel roads.  The last Arctic air mass arrives for Weds. – Fri. AM, but temperatures moderate by next weekend.   Here’s the GRR NWS discussion (from WDM and Laurens).

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.


Saturday Sunshine

February 28th, 2015 at 10:32 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

muskegon glerl   apn glerl  chicago glerl  The sun should hold until mid-late afternoon, when high clouds come in from the southwest.  These are GLERL cam pictures this morning (from NOAA Coastwatch) from Muskegon, Alpena and Chicago.  Lots of ice out there as we close out Feb.

Low temps. this morning:  -4 Grand Rapids (7th time in the last 14 days we’ve been below zero), -5 Fennville, -6 Big Rapids, Hartford and Hastings, -8 Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, -9 Benton Harbor, 10 Albion, -11 Charlotte and Three Rivers, -12 Mendon, -14 Cadillac, -16 Marshall, -18 Lawrence.  The low was -9 at Manistee, where the wind went calm and +16 at Ludington, where the wind held off Lake Michigan – try and forecast that.  Muskegon was +4, Hudsonville +3.  Climate stats from GRR NWS.

Also:  A very mid-winter weather map this morning.  Low temps:  11 Amarillo, -1 Colorado Springs, -15 Rochester MN, -18 Mason City IA, 15 St. Louis, 7 Indianapolis, -9 Cleveland, 12 Boston.   8″ new snow in Albuquerque NH – snow and ice at Grand Canyon AZ, 2″ sleet in Stillwater OK.   Sunrise this morning in Friesland, NetherlandsLake Blue Ridge GA looks like Michigan this AM.  Dallas, Texas has had more snow this month than Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska combined!  -10 in Chicago this morning broke the old record low by 10 deg.   Great Lakes ice cover now 6% more than last year on this date.   Here’s some cool snow sculptures.


Great Lakes up to 86.8% Ice Cover

February 28th, 2015 at 1:54 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Great Lakes Ice Cover   Lake Michigan Winter Ice S. Haven Jeffrey Foltice 2 27 15  Happy Weekend!  Click on the images to enlarge.  Sunset picture from Jeffrey Foltice at S. Haven Friday evening.  The Great Lakes are now up to 86.8% ice cover.  There’s still a good deal of open water on Lakes Michigan and Ontario.  As of early Sat. morning, the ice cover on the  individual lakes is as follows:  Lake Michigan 67.3%, Lake Superior 94.9%, Lake Huron 95.3%, Lake Erie 96%, Lake Ontario 57.1%.   You couldn’t just walk across the frozen lakes.  There are large cracks with open water and areas where the surface is like crushed ice in a glass of water.

Four of the last five days, we’ve had over 60% sunshine.  The last 16 days have been 18.2 deg. cooler than average in G.R.  Today is the 17th day in a row that’s cooler than average.  During these 17 days, the warmest temperature has been 27.  We’ve only had 3 days out of 28 that have been warmer than average this month.   One more cold week, then cold air retreats!  When I first looked at the 2 pics. here…my first thought was flooding is sure a possibility if we get decent rain this month with a quick warm-up.

Models backing off on the Sunday snow…mostly around or slightly less than an inch over most of the area.  Euro. has 0.18″ at Sturgis, would be 2 to 2 1/2″, but only an inch for Kalamazoo County.  It has 0.30″ precip. for Tuesday – a mix, high mid 30s.  The GFS (car.) has 0.69″ for G.R.  with 1.2″ snow in that.

Also:  Check out the Texas Rangers Stadium Friday.   Waterloo, IA, broke its 118-y/o Feb. 27 low temp. record with -24 F; old record: -14, 1897.  Coldest February ever in Cleveland, Portland ME and on Mt. Washington NH.  Up to a foot of snow fell in Alabama.  Passengers were stuck on American Airlines plane for 7+ hrs at DFW waiting for plane to be deiced.  Beautiful sunset at Fort Walton Beach, FL.  Season snowfall:  117″ Bangor ME, 109″ Worcester MA, 103″ Buffalo, 102″ Boston, 100″ Erie PA.  Snow in N. GASnow covers the Texas Rangers baseball field in Arlington TX.  The Texas Cowtown Marathon has been cancelled.  So has the Calf-Marathon.  In Collin Co. Texas, police were working to clear 15 slide-offs on I-75 (13 car and 2 semis).  Hailstorm in CaliforniaGreat sunset pic. from Dolphin Is AL.  This month will be NYC’s coldest February in 81 yrs, and one of the Top 10 coldest months ever!   Neat satellite picture of the Northeast.   American Meteorology Society says House Democrat investigation into climate skeptics sends “chilling message”: http://wapo.st/17E7kt8Cool zoomed in pic. of the Niagara River Friday.  I’ve found Reed Timmer.   Huh?   “Historically, drought is the number-one climate-related cause of death. Worldwide it has gone down by 99.98% in the last eighty years.”   February will easily be the coldest February on record at CLE. Current avg monthly temperature is 14.9, next coldest 16.7 set in 1978.

 


Snow Cover/Season Snowfall

February 27th, 2015 at 12:02 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Swiss Valley Ski    This is going to be an awesome weekend for winter sports…get out the skis, skates, sleds, snowboards.  We’ll have some sun on Sat., some snow on Sunday.   Here’s some snow depths:  47″ Grand Marias, 42″ Munising, 34″ Ishpeming, 32″ Marquette Airport, 28″ Newberry, 23″ Hart, 19″ Traverse City, 17″ Muskegon, 16″ Hopkins, 15″ Fremont, 14″ Paw Paw and Houghton Lake, 13″ Kalamazoo, Grandville, Hopkins, 12″ Reed City, 11″ Lake City, 10″ East G.R., 9″ Hastings, Saranac, 7″ Grand Rapids and Lansing.

Season snowfall:  Lansing 33.7″, Kalamazoo 70.3″, Grand Rapids 74.8″, Muskegon 87.9″.  Leave a comment if you keep track of season snowfall.

Also:  +40 vehicle accident in the snow near Melissa, TX.   This February will easily be the coldest February on record at CLE. Current avg monthly temperature is 14.9, next coldest 16.7 set in 1978.  Snowing in Dallas.   Here comes the next Arctic ExpressTime lapse of moving ice in Chicago this morning.  Since 1979 (when satellite records began), Friday morning Lower 48 avg. temp of 16°F is coldest for last week of February (21st –>).   Leap day 2/29/96 previous coldest at 17.5°F.  79% of the Lower 48 states were at or below 32 deg. this morning, 25% at or below zero and 10% at or below -10.  Coast Guard cutter spots coyote on the ice near Quincy MA.   Magnitude 7.0 earthquake reported 82m north of Nebe, Indonesia, no tsunami.


How Cold Did You Get?

February 27th, 2015 at 4:12 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

thermometer wivb  Feb 2015 coldest Feb.Graphic from G.R. NWS – this will be the coldest Feb. ever and the 4th coldest month ever in G.R.   I left the station around 3:10 am and it was 1 above on my car thermometer.  It was clear and calm.  It stayed at +1 as I drove thru downtown and out on US 131.  It was still +1 when I crossed the Ann St. Bridge.  Once I got past the bridge, there’s a straight-away that’s low down by the river, and the thermometer dropped to -7.  I then exited at Alpine and the thermometer rose back to 0 at the entrance to the mall.  It was back to -2 when I got home.  That’s pretty typical of calm, clear nights, where the cold air settles into low spots.    You can check the Michigan hourly temperatures here.   Another cold shot for Weds./Thurs. of next weekCFSv2 still shows general cold pattern thru March.    Temperatures were below zero this morning in at least 20 states!

Low temps. this morning:  -33 Rudyard (coldest in the U.S.), -32 Leota, -29 Baldwin, -28 Pellston, -25 Cadillac & Lake City, -24 Gaylord, -22 Reed City, -21 Houghton Lake, -20 Marshall, -19, Big Rapids, Alpena, -18 Traverse City, -17 Eaton Rapids & Albion, -16 Charlotte, Belding & Ceresco, -15 Jackson, Hastings, -14 Alma, Mt. Pleasant, Coldwater, W. Olive and Twin Lake, -13 Hudsonville, Mendon and Lawrence, -12 Fremont, -11 Grand Rapids (missed record low by 1 deg.), Hart and Allendale, -10 Hopkins, Bloomingdale & Clarksville, -9 Ionia, Grandville, Sturgis and Manistee, -8 Grand Haven and Hartford, -7 Benton Harbor, Watervliet, Lawton and East G.R., -6 Kent City, +1 Fennville.    Beach temps. this AM:  -3.5 Muskegon, +2.8 Milwaukee, +6.0 Chicago.

Also:  New monthly February Snowfall Record for Denver as total is now up to 22.2″; old record: 22.1″, set in 1912.  Snow in IrelandLight Pillars in NW Ohio.   First llamas..now thisPostcard pretty.   Snowiest calendar day ever in Huntsville AL, 8.1″ on 2/25.   Look at the snow in Blount Springs ALCullman AL looks like Marquette.  Weiss Lake AL.   American Meteorological Society responds to Government global warming witchhunt.


MODIS satellite pictures

February 27th, 2015 at 1:42 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

modis lake michiganModis Lake Superior  modis lake huron These are MODIS satellite pics (from NOAA Coastwatch) of Lake Michigan, Superior and Huron from Thursday PM. You can see a band of lake-effect snow coming down Lake Michigan. That band produced up to 8″ of snow in Chicago and 6″ in Milwaukee. There is still quite a bit of open water on Lake Michigan, but Huron and Superior are iced up enough to end the threat of lake-effect snow. You’d still get a small amount of warming (maybe 2-3 degrees) with the air moving across those lakes. That band of snow over Lake Michigan has been coming into Berrien Co. As the wind turns west and then southwest, the band will come onshore and dissipate. A dusting of snow is possible near the lake. Most of the day should be partly sunny and cold.

Great Lakes iceTotal – 84.1%, Superior – 94.9% , Michigan 58.9% , Huron 95.2% , Erie 95.6%Ontario 53.6%, (links will update automatically with fresh numbers).  This is the first time since the late 70s that we have had two consecutive years with Great Lakes ice reaching 80%. The strong winds we had on Tuesday didn’t break up much ice.   Here’s Great Lakes water temperature over the past 5 years.

Great Lakes water levels:  Lake Michigan/Huron is down one inch in the past month (precipitation is for the most part sitting on the ground and not running off into the rivers with the cold temperatures), up 21″ in the last year and it’s now 8″ higher than average for late Feb.  The level of Lake Superior is down 2″ in the last month, up 8″ in the last year and 7″ above the long-term average.  Lake St. Clair is down 3″ in the last month, down 1 inch in the past year and 3″ below the century average.  Lake Erie is down 4″ in the last month, up one inch in the last year and exactly at the long-term average.  Lake Ontario is down 5″ in the last month (open water for decent evaporation and little runoff coming into the lake with the cold temperatures), down 6″ in the last year and 6″ below the century average.  The buildup of ice in the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers has caused the water level of Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie to drop in the last few weeks.   The outflow on the St. Marys, the St. Clair, the Detroit and the Niagara Rivers are all expected to be above average in March.

Also:  Lake Superior ice caves are open to the publicSuper-Mackinac yacht race scheduled for July 11 will cover 568 milesConfederate treasure in Lake MichiganCruise ship coming to the Great Lakes this summer.


Friday Morning

February 26th, 2015 at 3:33 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Friday AM – It’s mostly clear-partly cloudy and cold inland.  There’s a band of lake-effect snow over Lake Michigan.  That band produced up to 8″ of snow in Chicago and 6″ in Milwaukee.  It shows there is still a good amount of open water.  That band will migrate to the east and may bring a little light snow to western Oceana, western Mason and Berrien Counties.  It’s possible that there could be a period of morning flurries tomorrow as the wind goes west off the lake, but they would be light.  Dry Saturday, snow on Sunday (1-4″ – heaviest south), dry and calm Monday, a mix changes to all rain on Tuesday as we briefly get to 40 deg.  Then cold again next Weds./Thurs.

More Arctic air coming down for the next several days to close out the coldest February ever in G.R. (and possibly Michigan).  16 of 25 days this month have been 10 degrees or more colder than average.  Only 3 of 28 days will end up warmer than average.  We’ve had only one night when the temperature stayed above 20 deg. and we’ll go over 2 months with only one day reaching 40.  The average high temperatures have now reached the upper 30s.

Overnight model data:  Highs/lows starting with this aftn. off the NAM (car.):  11/-9/17/-3/18.  For the GFS (car):  7/-21/14/0  The GFS plot has 8/-18/2/11 and a high of 25 on Sun.  The European model temps. for G.R. are 13/-17/16/-3/21 (I’d err on the high side with temps.).  The European model would have about 3″ of snow for G.R. on Sunday (0.25″ precipitation) and snow to freezing rain and maybe back to snow or flurries on Tues./Tues. night.  We could see some tough travel Tuesday (0.56″ precip. on that model).  On the Euro., the 4th is the warmest day of the next 10 with a high around 35.  So, we gotta hope we can change the Tues. storm to something other than freezing rain.  The GFS plot has upper 30s on 3/10 and low-mi 40s on the 13th.   No sign of spring in the first week of March.

Also:  Southern storm:  It’s dangerous for reporters to do “stand-ups” on the edge of a busy highway!   As I write this more than 111,000 customers without power in N.C. alone, 27,500 in AL.  9″ snow Townsend TN.  8″ snow Roxburo NC,  12.5″ snow in Guin AL.    Building igloos in Alabama!  There was a tornado watch for N. Florida Weds. PM – about 25 wind damage reports, no tornadoes as I write this.  The 51-day no-SPC-watch span is 6th longest since 1975. Last span longer was 54-days in late ’86!  No severe weather because it’s been so cold.  Widespread mountain snows coming in the Western U.S.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.


Weds. night

February 25th, 2015 at 7:21 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

  Weds. evening – I’ll put radar back up top with a little light snow coming thru here overnight.  Most areas get a dusting to an inch.  Not much, but enough for a few slick spots after midnight into the morning rush hour.  The snow has not been able to make much progress into the drier air over W. Michigan.   Once this gets by, there could be a few flurries near the lake, but for the most part, three dry and cold days from Thursday to Saturday.  We’ll get snow Sunday and snow or a mix on Tuesday.   The average high is 37 now and that reaches 40 on 3/5, so even if the cold pattern continues, the averages will start to pull us up in early March.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar, NAM model 3-day snowfall forecast and GFS model 5-day snowfall forecast. Storm Total Snowfall will show the heaviest snow and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map, Here’s www.instantweathermaps.com.


Arctic Air Rest of the Week

February 25th, 2015 at 4:22 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

814temp.new   This is the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for March 4 – 10.  Click the pic. to enlarge.  Note that most of the country is blue, which means a higher probability of cooler than average conditions. Also note that the greatest chance of cooler than average temperatures, signified by the “B” is right over Southwest Michigan (and Northern Indiana).  The PNA (Pacific North American Pattern) is going negative.  It’s forecast to have the lowest value of the winter on 3/1.  This usually means a trough in the West.  That would help to build an upper level ridge in the Southeast – hence the warm pattern for Florida (still time to plan your early March vacation!).  Showers are forecast over the weekend over Northern and Central California.

Model data from last night:  First, lighter winds.  The NAM has nothing greater than a 10 mph wind for the next 3 days, so no drifting.  The NAM has highs/lows for G.R. starting today at 15/1/7/-5/12.  The GFS has 16/5/12/-3/11.  The NAM mos has 16/2/9/-9/15.  The GFS plot has 12/7/2/15/-20!?/10.  The GFS plot would give us 0.15″ precipitation Sun./Sun. night – a couple inches of snow.  Then it has 0.46″ for Tuesday, which would be a mix, probably snow to freezing rain to rain (max. 36 degrees) then back to snow before it ends.   The European has 0.25″ of precipitation Sat. night thru Sun. night – about 3-3 1/2″ of snow.  The Tues. event looks nasty on the European with the possibility of not only mixed precipitation, but a significant period of freezing rain Tues. night that could give us some nasty travel and a lot of closings on Weds. (4th).  That’s too far out to get too excited about, but you ought to make a note to check with later forecasts on that one.  The European’s warmest is low (to maybe mid) 30s next Weds. morning…nothing even up to average thru March 7.

Also:  Happy Birthday to Daughter #1 today!   Boston went over 100″ season snowfall last night…2nd snowiest winter ever and plenty of time to get to #1, that’s 107.6″ in 1995-96.  Wow!  Look at the size of the waves in Spain!  and hereThere’s a car in thereWhen does the coolest 91-day period end in the U.S.  Houghton Lake has been below zero 14 days this month.  Cleveland is 15 deg. cooler than average this month.  Decent snowstorm for MS/AL/GA.  Here’s a wider view of the Southern snowstormAtlanta Schools closed today.   Wow, look at this picture with the Northern Lights, a lenticular cloud and the reddish glow of a volcano.  Snow in Tennessee.  State of Emergency in AL for 3-6″ of snow.  Flying over frozen Lake Huron.   Yesterday was the first day since Jan 17th that Syracuse did not receive at least a trace of snowfall.  Daily record for Great Lakes ice cover40 record low temps. across the East Tues. AM – 27 Monday AMNational Guard response to Moore, Oklahoma tornado.