Hurricane Gonzola Hits Bermuda – Showers Here in W. Michigan

October 17th, 2014 at 2:48 pm by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

bermuda radar   Saturday AM  -  Dang!  Look at this!  The eye of the storm passed directly over Bermuda!  At 8:55 pm, the airport reported an ESE wind at 74 mph with a gust to 96 mph.  An hour later the wind was S at 10 mph and no gusts.  At 11:55 pm, they reported the wind was W at 93 mph with a peak gust to 113 mph.   One report of sustained wind to 105 mph with a gust to 127 mph (Commissioner’s Point).  The radar image is from shortly after 6 pm.   Here’s a recent radar loop as the storm is moving out of the area.  Here’s the latest weather observation from Bermuda.   This could be the strongest hurricane ever to hit the tiny island.  Hurricane Fay did some damage to Bermuda earlier this month.   Here’s more from the Bermuda Weather Service.  Tweet from inside the eye of the storm on Bermuda:  “Now in the eye of the storm. Dead calm outside. Tree frogs chirping. No rain. Little wind. Incredibly eery.”   Most of the island is without power.  Video from the eyewall this evening.   Webcam from Bermuda – it should be interesting when the sun comes up in the AM.   Check out the facebook page of the National Weather Service of Bermuda.  Here’s a satellite view of the storm as it races toward far eastern Canada.  Closer view.

8:45 pm – G.R. down to 51 degrees, Cadillac is 45°.  Scattered light showers/rain across the area – no lightning now.  We’re getting gusts to 20-30 mph.  The cold air is coming down…wind gusts along the Lake Superior shoreline have been running 30-40 mph with temps. in the low 40s.


Great Lakes Water Levels and News

October 16th, 2014 at 7:34 pm by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

Lake superior water temperature  Click on the graphic to enlarge.  This is the graph of the water temperature of Lake Superior since Jan. 2009.  You can see the lake has been consistently colder this year.  The lake temperature generally peaks in the first two weeks of August.  A period of relatively calm weather may cause the temperature to spike.  It then comes back down when stronger winds mix up colder water from below the surface.  Lake Superior is 3.5 degrees below normal. Lake Huron and Michigan are roughly 2 degrees cooler than average for mid-October.

The water level of Lake Michigan/Huron is up one inch in the last month, at a time when the lake levels are usually falling.  The lake is 4″ above the long-term average level for October and 20″ higher than it was one year ago.  The highest lake level in October occurred in 1986 (remember the Flood of ’86?) when we had several homes fall into Lake Michigan due to beach erosion.  Officially, we had 11.85″ of rain in G.R. in Sept. 1986.  Some areas from N. Kent Co. into Newaygo Co. had close to 20″ of rain that month.  I looked at the weather that fall and saw that Nov. 1986 was about four degrees colder than average in G.R., though we had below average snowfall that winter.  I had mentioned earlier that there were some similarities to the cold, snowy winters of the late 1970s.  We had the coldest winter of the last 100 years in 1976-77 – then we had the Blizzard of ’78 the following winter, followed by the coldest February and 5th coldest March that G.R. has ever had.  That winter was a weak El Nino and it had above average snowfall in Nov., Dec. and Jan. (in G.R.).  The winter of 1978-79 brought Grand Rapids well above average snowfall (96″) and significantly colder temperatures for all 3 winter months.

The water level of Lake Superior is unchanged in the last month, but up 10″ year-to-year and 8″ above the century average.  Lake Erie is down 3″ in the last month, but up 7″ in the last year and 8″ higher than the October average.  Lake Ontario is down 7″ in the last month (Erie and Ontario fluctuate more than the other 3 Great Lakes), down 2″ year-to-year and it’s now 1″ below the century average.  Lake St. Clair is 14″ higher than one year ago and 9″ above the October average.   Outflow from Lake Superior down the St. Mary’s River remains well above average.    The outflow from Lake St. Clair down the Detroit River and down the Niagara River from Lake Erie into Lake Ontario is also expected to remain above average.

Also:  Because the ice caves in the Apostle Islands of Lake Superior were so popular last winter, the National Park Service is proposing charging $5 a person to go see them.   This town has more Asian Carp than another other place on EarthPirates of the Great LakesSome benefits of the higher water levels.   Note – piers and breakwaters will be dangerous places Friday night and Saturday, as strong NW winds kick up.  Waves are expected to peak at 5-10 feet and will crash over the breakwaters.  Winds could reach 25-40 mph.  Small Craft Advisories will be up until Friday evening, then they will be upgraded to Gale Warnings.

 


Thursday PM

October 16th, 2014 at 3:52 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   I’ll leave radar at the top of the blog here for the morning.  A few sprinkles from Whitehall north along the lake at 2:30 pm.  Looks pretty dry for this evening/tonight.   Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar. Storm Total Rainfall will show the heaviest rain and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.

 


Snowy Halloween?

October 15th, 2014 at 1:57 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick   Click on the image to enlarge.  It’s the GFS, which has the occasional problem of bringing down cold shots too strong in fall, but…if by chance this is true…it’s probably our first measurable snow…right in time for Halloween (10/31).  It would be breezy/windy and cold.  If it’s cold enough for Lake Michigan to get significantly into the act, there could be significant snow.  Remember 1951, the other year without a 90-degree day in the summer?  That year we got dumped on in the first week of November with 1-2 FEET of snow in the G.R. area.  So, it bears watching.  Later tonight, I’ll add more to this.  The Japanese model still looks cool for Dec. – Feb. in the Great Lakes.  Speaking of cool, the NAM and GFS would have temps. only in the mid-upper 40s Sat. afternoon with a pretty stiff NW wind.  Sunday looks dry, then showers from late Sunday night to Tues. AM – next Weds./Thurs. should be partly-mostly sunny.


Wednesday

October 15th, 2014 at 1:24 pm by under Uncategorized

   1:21 pm – The stock market is down over 400 points today and falling.  This is a similar pattern to 2008, when gasoline prices dipped, then the stock market dipped, then the economy dipped right before the election.  I’ll leave radar at the top of the blog. A few more widely scattered showers and sprinkles today, lots of clouds and occasional damp pavement.  Winds will be light.  Oct. 1-14 was 0.5° cooler than average in G.R.  Average high temps. are now in the low 60s and falling at the rate of about one degree every 3 days.

Check out this picture of the Northern Lights last night from Kyle Underwood-land up in NE Minnesota.  We could have seen the aurora here in W. Michigan (though fainter and more on the northern horizon than in NE Minnesota, but it was cloudy here.

Storm Total Rainfall will show the heaviest rain and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.


Few Showers, Long-Range Outlook and We Miss the Northern Lights

October 14th, 2014 at 9:56 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Rainbow Connie Williams Bagley 10 14 14   naefs 500mb  First on the left, a spectacular rainbow this evening from Connie Williams Bagley on US 131 south of Plainwell.  On the right is a forecast map for October 25 from the NAEFS model.  It shows in purple where 500 mb heights are expected to be below average and in pink where heights are expected to be above average.  What this means is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West, a pattern that is to be expected about 6-10 days after we have  a recurving typhoon in the Western Pacific (Vongfong).  It looks like we won’t be tapping Arctic Air…so seasonably cool, but not real cold as we head into the last week of the month.     The Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) are shining tonight in Wisconsin where skies are clear and across much of the northern half of North America.  The kp-index is at 5 (storm) as I write this.  From spaceweather:  “High-latitude auroras are possible on Oct. 14th-15th when Earth crosses through a fold in the heliospheric current sheet.

Here’s a cool sunset pic. from Ann Marie at the Gulf of MexicoSunset at Upper Grand Lagoon, Florida.   Flooding at Gatlinburg TN (time to move some cars!).  Double rainbow near Bay City MI.


Tuesday PM

October 14th, 2014 at 2:13 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

   Early Weds. AM – Early morning rainfall has been a little heavier north of a line from Muskegon to Reed City.    Ludington reports 2.03″ and Manistee had 2.55″.  Six-hour rainfall totals ending at 2 am included 1.31″ at both Manitowoc and Oshkosh WI and 1.2″ at Pellston MI.  This continues to be a record year for adding water to the Great Lakes.  My observer in Oshtemo has had over 5″ of rain since Oct. 1.   At 2 am, G.R. was up to 71…winds were gusting to 25-30 mph.

Exciting weather in Australia.  It’s very late in the winter season to get snow like that in Australia.  3-6″ of rain in N. Alabama – flooding – this guy better back up!   Here’s lightning in the Middle East viewed from space.

Here’s Grand Rapids radar and Northern Michigan radar. See the Slight Risk Area in a thread below this one for today/tonight. Storm Total Rainfall will show the heaviest rain and Milwaukee looping radar. Regional radar and the Updated GRR NWS Short Term Discussion. More links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation. Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s recent storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map.


Hurricane Gonzalo and Trop. Storm Ana

October 14th, 2014 at 1:37 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]  5 Day Track for ANAHurricane Gonzalo produced wind gusts of 70-75 mph on the island of St. Maartin.  The storm will head to Bermuda, where they had a 96 mph gust from Hurricane Fay last week.  Here’s the latest discussion on Gonzalo.   We also have Tropical Storm Ana, which should come close to the Big Island of Hawaii.  While not a big hurricane, Ana should kick up some knarly surf and has the potential to produce some heavy rainfall.   Here’s the latest discussion on Ana.   The last image (of Ana) will enlarge if you click on it.  You can see the enlarged track of Gonzalo here.


Strong Earthquake

October 14th, 2014 at 12:40 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

e-quake    Magnitude-7.4 earthquake strikes 52 mi south of Chirilagua, El Salvador.   At this point, No widespread tsunami threat.   Un temblor de 7.4 grados de magnitud causa alarma en El Salvador.

Also, lightning in NW FloridaWe’ve had two storm fatalities, one in Arkansas and one in Alabama.  Over 40,000 were left without power in Alabama Monday evening, and 43,000 in Louisiana.  Over 250 storm reports on Monday.   7.95 in. of rain fell in 5 hrs. at Motoyama, Japan from Tropical Storm Vongfong.


MD out – Watch Unlikely

October 13th, 2014 at 8:39 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

md   There’s a mesoscale discussion for S. Michigan/N. Indiana for the possibility of gusty winds along the main line of showers (and a couple embedded t-storms).  A Weather Watch is unlikely.   The Storm Prediction Center says:  “SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE…THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.”    173 severe reports and counting today from Illinois to the Gulf of Mexico.   There was a tornado warning out for an area about 75 miles south of Chicago – no confirmed touchdown there.