Christmas morning – The Winter Weather Warning and Advisories have expired.  The NWS reports the “whitest Christmas” ever in GRR was a snow depth of 22″ on 12/25/51.

We’re already at 50.1″ of snow for the month in GRR (60.1″ for the season), the 4th highest amount of snow ever in the month of December (average is 18″) and the 4th highest for ANY month.   Muskegon is up to 66.5″ for the month (81.3″ for the season).  Kalamazoo has had 39.6″.   Lansing is 21.4″ for the month and 31.5″ for the season.  Kalamazoo (WMU) is up to 40.6″ for the month and 47.7″ for the season.  East Grand Rapids has 57.6″ for the month and 62.3″ for the season.   Ludington tops the list with 73″ of snow for December (that’s over 6 feet!) and 91″ for the season.   Muskegon still has a long way to go to reach their monthly record of 102.4″ in Jan 1982.  I remember that month…we had blizzards three weekends in a row in January.

This is also on track to be the cloudiest month EVER!  We’ve had only 7 hours and 59 min. of sunshine this whole month.  That’s 3.6% of possible sunshine.  The cloudiest month ever in GRR was Nov. 1992 with 5.1% of possible sunshine.  We had more sunshine last Fourth of July than we have had in the last 25 days combined!

Temperature-wise here’s how far we are below normal this December:  Grand Rapids:  -4.0 deg., Kalamazoo -5.9 deg.,  Chicago -7.8 deg.  Official snow depth:  Grand Rapids 12″, Muskegon 16″, Wellston in Manistee Co. 29″, Alyeska AK. (summit) 104″ (272″ for the winter so far).  Verkoyansk in Siberia had a HIGH temperature of -71 deg. F on Saturday.

Check out the National Warning Map.  Here’s the NAM/GFS model data, the 120-hour total snowfall from the GFS model and the 84-hour total snowfall from the NAM model (note because the NAM is only 84-hours, it will have less snow than the GFS, which goes out 36 more hours).  Here’s a wider view of expected snow.  Click for the Great Lakes Radar Loop, the eastern U.S. surface map.  Michigan surface weather map, and the latest GRR NWS discussion.

<–That snowman looks waaaaay too happy!  8:45 PM update:  The cold front is just past Grand Rapids…temperatures are in the mid 30s here yet – it reached 40 at noon at Muskegon and 38 in GRR.  A light mix of precipitation has overspread the area this evening.  Roads will be wet to start, with icy spots later tonight  as temps. reach freezing.  It’s 20 in Green Bay, 11 in Eau Claire, WI and +2 at International Falls, MN…so the cold air is coming.   It’ll get the lake-effect cranked up later tomorrow.  The NWS has a Winter Storm WARNING for 7 counties in northern lower Michigan for UP TO TWO FEET of snow by Friday AM!!  The warning includes:  Traverse City, Gaylord, Grayling, Kalkaska, Mancelona, Charlevoix and Petoskey.    We have a Winter Weather Advisory for Oceana, Newaygo and Mecosta Counties northward for 3-6″ of snow.  The rest of us should see perhaps 2-4″.    This is a mid-January weather pattern!  We have more snow on the way and even colder air.  Check out the latest state weather observations, local radar, and the local surface weather map.  Here’s the NAM snowfall forecast thru 84-hours, and the GFS model snowfall forecast through 120 hours.  HPC is giving areas NW of GRR the heaviest snow. Northern Michigan  received up to 15.5″ from the Sunday-Monday storm.   Check out the warnings/advisories in the U.S.   It was a windy night last night, especially near Lake Michigan (gust to 44 mph on the beach at Muskegon, 48 mph at the Holland Channel and 50 mph at the Grand Haven Channel!).  The GFS has been gradually coming around to my idea of some heavy-duty cold air with temps. struggling to get past the low 20s and wind chills in the single figures.  It’ll be plenty cold enough for lake-effect snow thru Friday.  Then a clipper system gives us snow on Saturday with another very cold shot to follow for Sunday/Monday with more lake-effect.  We’re talking at least a few inches in inland areas to a foot of snow or more for the most favorable lake-effect areas.  Wonder if we’ll have a top-ten cold/snowfall December?…could be.   Note:  I’m off for the next two weeks, Terri’s doing my shift…but I’ll be in town and will be updating the blog on occasion.  Oh, and the Astronomy Picture of the Day is pretty cool.

The Climate Prediction Center has revised their December temperature forecast.  Now that they can see what’s coming in the first 10 days of the month, they’ve decided they better get on board with the eastern U.S. cold.  Of course, readers of this blog know that I’ve been talking about a cold December for quite a few weeks now.  I know this is only one forecast…but there has been talk about whether we need the taxpayers to be funding what can be done cheaper and better by the private sector.  I would suggest that they might considering getting the advice and counsel of local NWS forecaster, Bill Marino, who is a very thorough forecaster and part of one of the best NWS offices in the country (GRR).

This is the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. It sure looks like we’ve turned the corner and we’re headed slowly toward winter. No more 70° or 60° temperatures and incursions into the 50s will be rare and brief. I’m nearly done with my forecast for the winter, which I’ll post here probably in a couple days. I am inclined to think that cold weather will be the rule rather than the exception the rest of 2008 and that we have the potential for a couple of significant lake-effect snow events with the lake temps. still fairly warm. I’d have the winter plan ready to execute (winter clothes ready, snow blower gassed and ready to go, plows on and ready to go for the last 10 days of November, etc.).

Click to enlarge

Snow showers continue overnight into the midday. I’ve got nearly an inch on the ground on the grass at my place. The ground and pavement are still warm, but a heavier snow shower could certainly produce some icy spots. The coming week looks cool. Often the last hurricane of the season brings an end to the warmer weather. High temps. this week mainly in the 40s. The Advisories and Warnings for northern Michigan has expired. Up to 11″ of snowfall (9″ on the ground at Shingleton in the U.P. Five inches of snowfall at Ironwood and Munising. Up to 10″ of snow fell south of Gaylord and 6″ at Mancelona (which is melting slowly).