Christmas morning – The Winter Weather Warning and Advisories have expired.  The NWS reports the “whitest Christmas” ever in GRR was a snow depth of 22″ on 12/25/51.

We’re already at 50.1″ of snow for the month in GRR (60.1″ for the season), the 4th highest amount of snow ever in the month of December (average is 18″) and the 4th highest for ANY month.   Muskegon is up to 66.5″ for the month (81.3″ for the season).  Kalamazoo has had 39.6″.   Lansing is 21.4″ for the month and 31.5″ for the season.  Kalamazoo (WMU) is up to 40.6″ for the month and 47.7″ for the season.  East Grand Rapids has 57.6″ for the month and 62.3″ for the season.   Ludington tops the list with 73″ of snow for December (that’s over 6 feet!) and 91″ for the season.   Muskegon still has a long way to go to reach their monthly record of 102.4″ in Jan 1982.  I remember that month…we had blizzards three weekends in a row in January.

This is also on track to be the cloudiest month EVER!  We’ve had only 7 hours and 59 min. of sunshine this whole month.  That’s 3.6% of possible sunshine.  The cloudiest month ever in GRR was Nov. 1992 with 5.1% of possible sunshine.  We had more sunshine last Fourth of July than we have had in the last 25 days combined!

Temperature-wise here’s how far we are below normal this December:  Grand Rapids:  -4.0 deg., Kalamazoo -5.9 deg.,  Chicago -7.8 deg.  Official snow depth:  Grand Rapids 12″, Muskegon 16″, Wellston in Manistee Co. 29″, Alyeska AK. (summit) 104″ (272″ for the winter so far).  Verkoyansk in Siberia had a HIGH temperature of -71 deg. F on Saturday.

Check out the National Warning Map.  Here’s the NAM/GFS model data, the 120-hour total snowfall from the GFS model and the 84-hour total snowfall from the NAM model (note because the NAM is only 84-hours, it will have less snow than the GFS, which goes out 36 more hours).  Here’s a wider view of expected snow.  Click for the Great Lakes Radar Loop, the eastern U.S. surface map.  Michigan surface weather map, and the latest GRR NWS discussion.

<–That snowman looks waaaaay too happy!  8:45 PM update:  The cold front is just past Grand Rapids…temperatures are in the mid 30s here yet – it reached 40 at noon at Muskegon and 38 in GRR.  A light mix of precipitation has overspread the area this evening.  Roads will be wet to start, with icy spots later tonight  as temps. reach freezing.  It’s 20 in Green Bay, 11 in Eau Claire, WI and +2 at International Falls, MN…so the cold air is coming.   It’ll get the lake-effect cranked up later tomorrow.  The NWS has a Winter Storm WARNING for 7 counties in northern lower Michigan for UP TO TWO FEET of snow by Friday AM!!  The warning includes:  Traverse City, Gaylord, Grayling, Kalkaska, Mancelona, Charlevoix and Petoskey.    We have a Winter Weather Advisory for Oceana, Newaygo and Mecosta Counties northward for 3-6″ of snow.  The rest of us should see perhaps 2-4″.    This is a mid-January weather pattern!  We have more snow on the way and even colder air.  Check out the latest state weather observations, local radar, and the local surface weather map.  Here’s the NAM snowfall forecast thru 84-hours, and the GFS model snowfall forecast through 120 hours.  HPC is giving areas NW of GRR the heaviest snow. Northern Michigan  received up to 15.5″ from the Sunday-Monday storm.   Check out the warnings/advisories in the U.S.   It was a windy night last night, especially near Lake Michigan (gust to 44 mph on the beach at Muskegon, 48 mph at the Holland Channel and 50 mph at the Grand Haven Channel!).  The GFS has been gradually coming around to my idea of some heavy-duty cold air with temps. struggling to get past the low 20s and wind chills in the single figures.  It’ll be plenty cold enough for lake-effect snow thru Friday.  Then a clipper system gives us snow on Saturday with another very cold shot to follow for Sunday/Monday with more lake-effect.  We’re talking at least a few inches in inland areas to a foot of snow or more for the most favorable lake-effect areas.  Wonder if we’ll have a top-ten cold/snowfall December?…could be.   Note:  I’m off for the next two weeks, Terri’s doing my shift…but I’ll be in town and will be updating the blog on occasion.  Oh, and the Astronomy Picture of the Day is pretty cool.

<–After the Blizzard of ‘78 (Dude, where’s my car??!!).   Here’s how I began last year’s winter forecast:    “One of the best winter forecasts ever made was recorded by Laura Ingalls Wilder (in “The Long Winter“) while her family was homesteading in the fall of 1880 near what is now DeSmet, South Dakota.  While the settlers gathered at the general store, a dignified, old Native American comes to warn the settlers about the coming “heap, big snows – for 7 (full) moons”.  Most of the settlers heeded the warning and moved to town for the winter.  Just as predicted, the blizzards came from late October to early April.  This winter West Michigan won’t see blizzards for 7 full moons…but we’re going to have plenty of cold and snow between now and late March.”

That last sentence proved to be true.  Only a monster thaw on the weekend after Christmas (the temperature hit 60 due to the “Cancun Connection”) prevented us from getting some “Blizzard of ‘78″ style snow piles that would have really added up because the temperature stayed below freezing for all but a few hours during January (which was nearly five degrees colder than average).  Here’s the bulk of last year’s forecast which you can reread here:

“Having digested all of this and more, I think snowfall this winter (2008-09) over the area will be above normal, varying from 55-60 inches in Lansing area to 85 inches in Grand Rapids to 100 inches in the favorable lake-effect areas. Marquette in the Upper Peninsula should top 150” for the winter.  I think it’ll be colder than average in December.  Lake Michigan is a little warmer than average and the lake temperature will stop for a week or two around 39 degrees as the lake water “overturns”.  This will set the stage for some significant lake-effect snow in late November into December.  We have a 57% chance of a White Christmas in Grand Rapids.  This year I think the chance of a White Christmas (snow on the ground) will be at least 75%.  We will see a January thaw, but winter will drag on a little later into March, when temperatures may again be a little cooler than average.  This will mean we’ll have to spend a fair amount of money on plowing, sanding and salting.  That will be a concern as the winter drags on during these financially lean times.  So, don’t be afraid to get the season ski pass, get the snowmobile or cross country skies ready or find the ice fishing equipment.  Winter is definitely on the way!  This pattern will mean only brief incursions of cool air to central and southern Florida, so if you want to escape the cold, that would be a nice place to be.”

Let’s see how we did:  I got the above normal snowfall right.  I wasn’t high enough on the totals, but I don’t think I’d ever forecast that high a total.  We did get some heavy lake-effect snow from late November into early December.  Holland had 67″ of snowfall before Christmas Eve (sometimes they don’t get that much in any entire winter), including over 3 feet of snow from Nov. 16 to Dec. 9.  We did get the White Christmas.  We didn’t get a January thaw, but we did get monster thaws on the weekend between Christmas and New Year’s and also on Feb. 10-11.  So the idea of a thaw was correct, but I missed the timing.  The first week of March was cold (as cold as 5 above zero), but the weather story in March was +70% sunshine.  The weather turned chilly again in early April (just in time for spring break) with below average temps. from April 4-14. 

There is so much to study when making up a winter forecast.  I look at the prevailing upper level winds, world sea-surface temperatures, the cold that builds up by mid-Autumn in the Arctic, sunspot cycles, the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations, 2009 Atlantic hurricane patterns (a very wimpy year for tropical storms), the number of 90-degree days we’ve had during the previous summer (7 in the last 2 summers combined, average is 9.5 for one summer), and the current state of La Nina/El Nino.  We look back through our weather history to find correlations to the current conditions around the northern hemisphere and years when similar conditions were prevalent in the fall.  Any forecast is a guess, an “educated guess”.  The data base and the computer models aren’t good enough for near perfect forecast (won’t be in my lifetime), but long range forecasting has improved with new technology over the past 30 years. (more…)

<—blizzard of ‘78. Check back on the blog late this afternoon/evening. I’ll be posting my winter forecast. In the meantime, make sure the snow shovel, snow blower/thrower, and plow are all set to rock and roll…send the link to your friends to have them check back in this evening. I’ll have a package on the upcoming winter on the 6 PM news tonight on WOOD-TV.

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This is a map showing average temperature for January through October relative to normal. Areas that are blue have been cooler than average and that’s most of the country. By my count this comes to 38 of the 48 states. Most of the 10 states with warmer than average temperatures are small and in those states it wasn’t much above normal. Add the fact that Alaska is having what could be their coldest year in recent history (Anchorage has had only one month with warmer than average temperatures this year…Fairbanks was 7 degrees colder than average in October) and you’re looking at a pretty cold continent. Also note that the Arctic icecap is building back (now back to 2002 levels) and the Antarctic icecap reached a record high last year. I’ll be issuing my winter forecast in just a few days…and I can tell you this…it’s not looking like a warm winter for much of the country. You know, if we would have “fixed” “global warming” this map would have been even bluer.

This is the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. It sure looks like we’ve turned the corner and we’re headed slowly toward winter. No more 70° or 60° temperatures and incursions into the 50s will be rare and brief. I’m nearly done with my forecast for the winter, which I’ll post here probably in a couple days. I am inclined to think that cold weather will be the rule rather than the exception the rest of 2008 and that we have the potential for a couple of significant lake-effect snow events with the lake temps. still fairly warm. I’d have the winter plan ready to execute (winter clothes ready, snow blower gassed and ready to go, plows on and ready to go for the last 10 days of November, etc.).

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Snow showers continue overnight into the midday. I’ve got nearly an inch on the ground on the grass at my place. The ground and pavement are still warm, but a heavier snow shower could certainly produce some icy spots. The coming week looks cool. Often the last hurricane of the season brings an end to the warmer weather. High temps. this week mainly in the 40s. The Advisories and Warnings for northern Michigan has expired. Up to 11″ of snowfall (9″ on the ground at Shingleton in the U.P. Five inches of snowfall at Ironwood and Munising. Up to 10″ of snow fell south of Gaylord and 6″ at Mancelona (which is melting slowly).